本篇為面板產業(TFT LCD Sector)的研究報告與奇美 3009、友達 2409 二檔個股研究報告彙整。欲閱讀研究報告者需有Adobe Acrobat Reader。提供研究報告供各位閱讀是希望幫助各位建立個股與產業的相關知識，因此請勿四處散播。
Lowering earnings and PO given further ASP risks, Neutral
AUO’s share price has ~15% bounce recently, but we retain our cautious view on the LCD sector. IT ASP drop of ~20% in 3Q far exceeds our expectation (10-15%) and we expect EPS drop of 79% QoQ. AUO is tier 1 but unfortunately the worst is not over in our view as we see further risk (15-20%) to 4Q ASPs and oversupply
in 1H09, and lower 08E net profit to NT$47bn (-28%) and 09E to NT$8.4bn (NT$36.7bn prior). We lower our PO to NT$36 on 0.9x 08E PBV (-19%), but believe there is risk the stock could overshoot to the downside before year-end.
Demand remains tepid, ASP “stabilization” only temporary
While 1H Oct monitor ASP will be flattish MoM, giving short-term “hope』 of ASP “bottoming』, we caution that we believe it’s temporary as checks show monitor demand is rolling over on order cuts from major OEMs, while TV demand remains muted in areas such as Europe. Risk of inv adj after peak season is growing and we expect 4Q qtrly ASP to fall another 15-20% QoQ to cash cost (we aren’t there yet), leading to losses in 4Q and 1H09, and for 09E sales and earnings to decline YoY.
Foray into LCD TV assembly bears watching longer-term
We believe AUO’s JV with Qisda, although small in size and scope, signals AUO’s strategic intention to become more involved in LCD TV assembly rather than just being purely a panel supplier. The benefits include guaranteed TV production 『outlet” and a boost to top line, while challenges could be potential impact to margin/ROE and inventory management risk, as well as increased working capital burden.
以上是美林證券(Merrill Lynch)關於友達 (2409) 的研究報告摘要。該份報告表示，雖然友達的股價反彈將近15%，但是第三季的ASP(平均接單價格 ; 平均銷售價格 ; Average Selling Price )下滑20%，預估第三季EPS將呈現比第二季下滑79%的情況，且第四季的ASP仍有下滑壓力，09年上半年將出現超額供給，估計08年獲利為470億元，09年下滑至84億元。
下面則為法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)對友達(2409)的研究報告摘要
• AUO’s foray into TV set assembly, via JV with Qisda, aims to strengthen ties with TV customers/add earnings stability.
• Risks: Expanding geographic reach + steep TV assembly learning curve + customers’ intent to outsource to the JV.
• TP: TWD39 (1x ’08-09 P/BV). LT value emerges on recent trough retest, as it will fare this downturn better than peers.
AUO’s foray into TV set assembly, a right move
AU Optronics’ (AUO) set-up of a 60:40 LCD TV set assembly JV with Qisda confirms our earlier view on its interest in ‘forward integrating’ downstream set assembly. While TV set assembly garners a low profit
margin, it enhances profit stability and fosters closer business ties with its panel customers, especially those smaller/non tier-1 TV brand names. TV brand names outside the global top five outsourced 36% of
their 2Q08 set assembly needs, versus 14% from the top five.
… but a few roadblocks to pass through for the JV
While Qisda’s LCD TV set assembly sites are ready for transfer to the JV, the capacity is limited (1-2m units pa). The JV needs to expand both the production site scale/geographic reach in the EU/US (2/3 of global
LCD TV market), where TV import tariffs are high. Highly customized LCD TVs make assembly more complex than monitors, as shown by the slow progress from Qisda and even Innolux. We are also concerned
about its TV panel customers’ willingness to outsource set assembly to the JV. While Philips (the only top-five LCD TV brand) and smaller/non tier-1 TV brands show more interest in outsourcing, their market shares are at risk.
4Q08-2Q09 loss, but 2009 panel capacity pull-in on track
By factoring in sharper panel price cuts, we expect AUO to post losses in 4Q08-2Q09. While 2009 capex will likely drop sharply, AUO is on track to pull in capacity for its G7.5/8.5 hybrid fab (equipment POs/down
payments made early this year leave little room for push-back). Our view is based on: 1) its 2009 capacity growth in-line with industry demand; and 2) its plan to get G8.5 fab ready before ≥42-inch market takes off.
Long-term value emerges on retest of recent trough
We continue to rate AUO a HOLD, with our end-2008 price target at TWD38.00 (1.0x 2008-09E P/BV). We remain wary about the tenacity of panel order builds/price stabilization and thus a retest of its recent trough is likely, putting it back to its historical trough of 0.7-0.8x P/BV in 2001 and early 2003. That said, we see long-term value emerge at that level, given AUO’s sound financial status. Current credit tightening + soft business backdrop will make its closest peer – CMO hard to maintain its rapid pace of capacity builds, alleviating the LT competitive pressure in the outsourced panel market (a plus for AUO).
BNP預估08年友達的獲利為527億元，09年則下滑至84億元，與美林差異較大的是08年的獲利預估，不過09年的獲利預估則二者相近。
從這篇報告我們可以看到面板(TFT LCD)這個產業的供需狀況變化很大，導致獲利可以呈現80%以上的下滑幅度。
在這一篇 『面板製造公司( TFT LCD )是一個好的投資標的？！』 文章中，正通投資團隊已經對於面板產業提供了相當多的投資建議，在此就不再贅述，這二篇報告除了提供各位參考外，各位投資朋友應可體會出為何面板產業的相關公司一向不在價值投資法的個股觀察名單中。
2409 友達 研究報告 – BNP 2409 友達 研究報告 – 美林
10/21 新增
Taiwan TFT LCD – Morgan Stanley Research
V-Shaped or L-Shaped?
Investment conclusion: To prevent an L-shaped scenario, AUO/CMO need to continue cutting utilization
in 4Q08/1Q09. Accounting rule 10 implementation in 1Q09 on inventory valuation will likely bring more
scrutiny of inventory management to avoid future write-downs. There’s no floor on AUO/CMO utilization
as key is to control inventory in a downcycle. On global credit crisis, consumer spending this Christmas will
likely be weak. TFT demand is inelastic short term; both prices and volumes have come down sharply in 2H08. When inventory correction ends, we see the reverse happening by 2H09 on both price and volume increases, leading to a V-shaped recovery as profitability improves on faster cost reduction when utilization increases post inventory correction completion.
Chi Mei Optoelectronics Corp. (奇美 ; 3009) – Merrill Lynch Research
The worst is not yet over, keep Under-perform
Risks are rising, lower PO and reiterate Under-perform
We retain our cautious view on LCD industry and under-perform rating on CMO and cut PO to NT$19.4 (-19%) on 0.6x 08E PBV (close to trough), as ~20% IT ASP drop in 3Q far exceed our expectations, and unfortunately the worst is not over in our view as we see further risk to 4Q ASPs and oversupply in 1H09. We
lower 08E net profit by 18% to NT$24bn and now project 09E net loss of NT$7bn (vs NT$6.7bn profit previously) due to deeper than expected downturn into 1H09.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD 研究報告、 3009 CMO 奇美 研究報告 下載
11/27新增
Taiwan TFT LCD Sector – Merrill Lynch Research
Lowering estimates on new supply/demand model
Oversupply to persist in 09E
Our recently revised global ML TFT-LCD model shows oversupply should stay at over 110% in 09E, or excess capacity of 10%, with 26% YoY supply growth and only 10% YoY demand growth. Our new PC demand projections point to -14% YoY desktop and 10% YoY NB growth in 09, thus half of LCD demand should be
flat with no incremental growth. Recent US sell-through data suggests that LCD TV demand fell off the cliff from late Sept. Area demand growth should decelerate to only 10% YoY in 09E versus 60% CAGR over the past eight years.
2H November panel prices show TV ASP collapse
2H Nov monitor ASP fell 5% HoH (10-12% MoM), NB fell 6-8% HoH (10-15% MoM) and TV saw sharp fall of 7-8% HoH (10-13% MoM). 4Q-to-date, monitor ASPs are down 16-18%, NB are down 12-18%, and LCD TV ASPs are down 13- 20% QTD. This is much worse than our previous expectations and far below panel maker’s 4Q guidance of high-single digit to low-teens % decline for TV and IT panels. We firmly believe that both monitor and TV panel prices will hit cash costs levels, probably sometime in early 1H09 in our view.
Balance sheet woes leading to capex cuts in 09E
We believe the LCD industry is entering deep downturn complicated by consumer/ macro and gearing levels and balance sheet risks set against spending are key issues in a tightening credit environment. CMO’s high net debt/equity (74%) and weak balance sheet (net debt/market cap ~300%) are squeezing the company,
and 09E capex will fall 65% YoY to NT$35bn. For AUO, we expect 09E capex to drop 40% YoY to NT$60bn as both companies scale back 09E 8.5G plans.
Lowering estimates, PO on AUO and CMO
With rapid drop in 4Q ASP (even beyond our previously conservative assumption) and our change in supply/demand model, we lower our 09E earnings for CMO from -NT$19bn to –NT$30bn and lower PO to NT$9.7 on 0.4x 09E PBV (-19%), Underperform. For AUO, we now expect NT$16.7bn net loss in 09 and lower PO to NT$23.4 on 0.68x 09E PBV (-19%) and keep Neutral. We acknowledge that CMO’s recent buyback can provide short-term support from oversold levels, but we remain cautious on the LCD sector until a undamental catalyst can emerge.
Medium term signals to watch for
We remain cautious on LCD sector as current valuation seems undemanding and sector lacks fundamental catalysts. While near-term news flow and fundamentals should remain highly negative, some medium term signals to watch for include a) low expectations for Xmas sell thru leading to 1H09 inventory restocking ounce, b) balance sheet woes driving out weaker players, or c) meaningful industry c onsolidation in TWN leading to better long-term structural health of the industry.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan LCD Sector 台灣LCD產業研究報告 – Merrill Lynch ，另提供 Taiwan LCD Sector 台灣LCD產業研究報告 – DB 予各位一併參考。
