Reiterate BUY and lower target price slightly to TWD70.00; likely to meet its optimistic 3Q08 guidance.
Acer to be a key beneficiary and a dominant player following the netbook emergence (an est. USD9b market by 2010E).
A defensive play supported by net cash position, low valuation (below 10x 2009 P/E) and 6% dividend yield.
3Q Preview: An optimistic 3Q08
Delivering optimistic 3Q08 guidance
We expect Acer to report 3Q08 EPS of TWD1.09, down 8.8% y-y and 1.9% q-q on lower non-operating income. At the operating level, we expect operating profit to grow 24.9% y-y and 29.3% q-q driven by strong notebook (NB) shipment growth, which was partially offset by softer demand in monitors and desktops. Acer previously guided: 1) sales to grow 20-25% q-q; 2) NB shipment to grow 60-70% q-q (30-35% from regular size NB and 30-35% from Aspire One); and 3) operating margin to stay flat or rise slightly. We believe it is on track to deliver mid high-end of the sales guidance (23-25% sales growth) and its margin guidance.
Supply-chain check indicates low visibility in 4Q08
Our supply-chain check indicates likely peak sales in September for PC component vendors and we expect their NB related sales to be flat or grow by mid-single digits q-q, similar to 4% q-q sales growth in 4Q07 but lower than 12% in 4Q06. Our checks also suggest continued strength of netbook, but regular notebook growth is decelerating compared to 1H08.
Key beneficiary of the netbook emergence
In our netbook theme report “Grabbing a piece of the USD9b pie” dated 18 September, we identified netbooks as a bright spot in a weak market with shipment CAGR of 60% in 2008-10E to 28.5m in 2010. We believe Acer will be a key beneficiary of the netbook emergence, supported by its brand name and distribution channels. We expect its netbooks to account for 20-25% of its shipment and 10-12% of its earnings contribution.
Valuation: Target price TWD70.00
Our target price of TWD70.00 is based on sum-of-the-parts valuation with TWD58.80/share for its 2009 core earnings at 12-13x, TWD4.00 from market value of its investment and TWD7.35 from its net cash
position. Our TP of TWD70 is also equivalent to 13x bonus-adjusted 2009 P/E.
以上是法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)對宏碁(Acer , 2353)於10/3 所出具的研究報告，對於宏碁的看法我們已經在 Taiwan NB/MB Food Chain Check 這篇文章中做了說明，在此就不贅述了。
巴菲特對於選股有一個重要的考量因素，那就是『護城河』概念，所謂的護城河指的是競爭優勢，這個競爭優勢指的是技術優勢、品牌優勢、獨佔或寡佔優勢…等。舉例來說，巴菲特（Warren Buffett）第2季砸下2.6億美元（81億元台幣）買入德州第2大電力公司NRG Energy共324萬股，第1季波克夏公司已經購入美國第2大煉油商康菲（ConocoPhillips）1751萬股了，據統計波克夏公司的收入當中，約有1/10來自於能源和公共設施。巴菲特對於能源與公共設施這個產業之所以有興趣，其道理跟當初購買華盛頓郵報相同，它們都擁有穩定的現金流入，而且都屬於獨佔或寡佔，新的競爭者想要切入是難上加難，這個概念就是所謂的護城河。
在台灣的NB產業中，擁有品牌優勢的只有宏碁(Acer , 2353)與華碩(Asus , 2357)，而宏碁在全球品牌的經營上較華碩更佳，因此宏碁在這個產業中享有最高的本益比待遇。欲閱讀全文者請按 2353 宏碁 研究報告
以下是聯合報系對宏碁經營者的報導：
宏碁 (2353)創辦人施振榮要讓acer品牌站在全球頂端的夢想，由JT(王振堂)及Lanci(蘭奇)共同聯手要實現了!
全球金融風暴帶來不景氣，但危機蘊含機會，宏碁CEO蘭奇在2008宏碁全球記者會上發豪語，acer宏碁將在2011年擠下惠普（HP），成為全球最大筆記型電腦（NB）品牌；acer 在2011年全球合併營收挑戰300億美元，達到約新台幣1兆元。
他言出必行，說到做到！
今年6月間才接下宏碁CEO的義大利籍蘭奇 ( Gianfranco Lanci)，發出豪語，宏碁內部員工對這項挑戰相當振奮。因為，蘭奇從過去現在，「言出必行，說到做到」。
以宏碁今年上半年合併營收2521億元，全年合併營收約200億美元計算，平均每年成長率維持約15%。而acer目前全球PC排名第三，NB排名第二，蘭奇用什麼方法達成? 第一是運用多品牌策略-「一個集團、三家公司、四個品牌、多樣化產品線」。旗下包括acer、Gateway、Packard Bell和eMachines等四大PC品牌。第二是Netbook的竄起，蘭奇看到了機會。因此，蘭奇在全球經濟不景氣中，認為acer三年內看不見烏雲，要趁別人不景氣時，站上全球第一。
他屢創佳績與奇蹟！
許多宏碁員工，對蘭奇所領導的團隊以「崇拜」來形容，該為宏碁自2000年分割為自有品牌acer之後，能屢創奇蹟，來自蘭奇的創造佳績有關。
蘭奇與JT共同信念-Simple focus，全心全意打造品牌，蘭奇自己在資訊界多年，且大量閱讀資訊，有自信、有主見，例如，DELL的直銷通路大行其道，他看好經銷通路，於是運用DELL直銷通路造成通路商的人心惶惶，強打經銷通路的策略，積極拉攏通路商，並提供通路商優惠的合作方案，造成acer品牌在歐洲市場所向披靡，打敗DELL成為歐洲第一品牌的重要策略與基本功。
他精明，厲行減法經營！
蘭奇不僅有主見，更是精明的生意人，他最重視數字管理，認為減法經營比加法經營來得好，因此，他用人精簡，人事成本降得相當低，加上他強勢領導，要求嚴格、執行力強，使得他在由義大利分公司勝出歐洲，再由歐洲擴大到西歐、歐洲，再成為宏碁總座，由歐洲成功經驗複製到美國，美國在蘭奇接管後，由損益兩平到獲利。
他打造世界第一品牌！
義籍蘭奇原來是美國TI PC事業群義大利子公司的總經理，1997年，宏碁購併TI後，當時，蘭奇正舉棋不定，是要離開？還是留下？這時，宏碁當時董事長施振榮親自慰留蘭奇，施振榮對蘭奇說：「你可以離開到任何一家歐、美公司任職，這跟很多人的西方人模式相同，但是，你留下來，我們是一家亞洲品牌的公司，我們一起打拚，把亞洲品牌做到世界一流，這樣你的挑戰會更大，你的人生會更有意義。」就這樣，蘭奇留了下來，而且全心全力以世界第一品牌，人生以此挑戰為目標，結果，在施振榮退休後第五年，蘭奇成為宏碁的CEO，而且，蘭奇要在2011年成為全球NB第一品牌，施振榮的夢，將在他手上圓夢。
10/21 新增
Acer Inc. (宏碁 ; 2353) - Merrill Lynch Research
Well-positioned brand among PCs
Top pick in PC space; PO lowered to NT$60.0
We reiterate our Buy rating on Acer, given its strong execution, prime position in the entry/consumer and emerging Netbook markets, and acquisition synergies. We are lowering our PO to NT$60 on lower unit/ASP/margins, but still expect 09 revenue to grow 18% YoY with a slight margin expansion. Acer is on our most-preferred list for Taiwan and the regional tech with YTD outperformance (>20% vs peers).
Acer (2353) - Goldman Sachs Research
Buy
Anticipate 3Q core earnings better than our forecasts
What we expect
Acer posted robust Sep parent sales of NT$54bn, up 46% mom (49% yoy). 3Q parent sales also grew 25% qoq (40% yoy). We think Acer’s 3Q sales (consolidated) may grow at the high end of the company’s guidance range of 20%-25%, vs our forecast of 24%. We maintain our 3Q OP margin forecast of slightly better than 2Q. However, due to sharp euro depreciation in 3Q (down 11% vs USD), we think Acer may book forex losses. Also because of recent stock market weakness, Acer may report lower disposal gains on its long
term investments than we expected. We think 3Q core earnings should be better than our forecast and in-line with market consensus, but net earnings may be slightly below our forecast. Acer will report 3Q earnings on Oct 31.
欲閱讀全文者請按 2353 宏碁 Acer 研究報告 - 美林、2353 宏碁 Acer 研究報告 - 高盛
10/31 新增
Acer (宏碁 2353) - Macquarie Research
Acer’s valuation is not that demanding, in our opinion, after the market’s recent massive selling. However, as we believe Acer is facing various challenges and high street expectations, the stock is unlikely to outperform. Our TP is based on sum-of-parts with 9x its 2009E core earnings. We believe 9x is reasonable and in line with global peers, considering its growing risks.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Acer 2353 宏碁 研究報告 - MACQ