Macquarie health check
In this report, we conduct a health check on all the Taiwan listed companies under Macquarie’s coverage in attempt to gain a better understanding of the companies’ financial health and hence corporate longevity. Some companies may unknowingly be suffering from symptoms of angina. When the external environment (economy and credit market) collapses, the angina may turn into a serious heart attack. Thus, we focus our checks on the cardiovascular, or heart, system (refinancing capability), the body (operational funding) and the blood circulation system (cashflow and profit sharing).(註：EKG是心電圖的英文縮寫，在這份報告中使用EKG其實暗指個股與產業的財務狀況檢查)
Heart system check (refinancing capability)
We believe the heart is the most important part of a body; if it stops to function, it would kill the body. This is analogous to a company’s refinancing capacity – if this fails, the company would face insolvency. We look into various debt and financing ratios and identify the sectors that are in good or bad condition. Those that are in good condition are semiconductors, IC design, hardware, basic material, consumer, autos and telecom; in bad: DRAM, solar, LED, TFT, property and shipping. Those sectors or companies that we identify as being in a bad condition do not necessarily face a serious heart attack in the future, but they may need
some exercise (capital management) or medication (refinancing needs). Body function check (operational funding capability) Once the body’s heart has been pronounced to be in good health, it is time to
check the blood (cash) system; in a company’s case, this is to check whether it has enough funds to keep its operations going given the worsening credit environment. We look into net working capital management ratios, capex/sales and cash conversion cycle (CCC) to see if a sector or company is able to function on its own without any external help. Those in good condition: semiconductors, IC designs, hardware, basic material, consumer, autos and telecom; in bad: DRAM, solar, LED, TFT, property and shipping – sectors that
require larger capex but do not necessarily have strong cash positions.
Blood circulation system (cashflow and profit sharing)
Finally, we need to check the blood circulation (for a company, this means the efficiency with which it uses its cash and its ability to share this with shareholders). If this system were not in good health, a corporate may reduce its dividend and potentially lower its return performance (ROE). Those in good health: semiconductors, IC design, hardware, consumer and telecom; in bad: DRAM, component, solar, basic material, property, autos and shipping.
Conclusion
With the collapse of the global credit market and many companies facing liquidity risk, we are concerned that those companies with symptoms of ‘angina’ may have to engage in more intensive ‘exercise’ and start taking strong medication to prevent a heart attack from occuring. We would stay away from DRAM, LED,
TFT, property and shipping as they have failed to pass the Macquarie health check. We would hide in those sectors that score the highest in our three tests: hardware, telecom and some semiconductors.
以上為麥格里出具的研究報告(Macquarie Research)摘要。
因為這份報告是在股市震盪幅度極大的時期所撰寫，我們認為非常適合徬徨無助的投資朋友們閱讀，尤其是股票嚴重套牢，正在猶豫著是否要賣的朋友。對於『停損』，我們的建議是….當你認為目前的股價高於其內涵價值時，代表現在你所使用的評價模式證明你過去買進時的錯誤，就必須停損賣出，換言之，停損不是因為投資虧損才要停止損失(一般人的觀念)，而是因為目前的股價高於其內涵價值。
我們建議你閱讀這篇報告前，同時參考 空頭市場進入最後階段(Bear market enters last phase) 、 鑑往知來：全球歷史重大金融危機面面觀 、 財務比率分析 、 如何閱讀財務報表 、 從營運資金觀察企業競爭優勢 這五篇文章，這有助於你瞭解該份報告的含意。而我們也建議決定停損(非融資斷頭)的朋友，最好以換股的方式，賣出股價高於內涵價值的個股之時，同步買進股價遠低於內涵價值的個股。
如果您目前欠缺價值投資法的能力，請參考關於正通這篇說明。
Macquarie 的這份研究報告(Research)欲全文閱讀者請按Taiwan strategy
