以下是花旗所出具中信金控(Chinatrust ; 2891)的研究報告摘要：
Chinatrust FHC (2891.TW)
Buy: Getting Most Attractive Bank Franchise in Taiwan at Book
Playing a market bounce — Stock pullback presents opportunity to accumulate what we see as most attractive banking franchise in Taiwan below historic trough at 1.0x 2008E P/B. Although we have lowered our target price to NT$21 from NT$28.50 to reflect a more conservative LT ROE of 12%, we believe much
of the negativity is already in the price. Maintain Buy / Low Risk (1L) rating.
Baking in more conservative numbers — Given MTM losses taken on Mega thus far and expectations of a tough year ahead, we are cutting our EPS forecasts for 2008-10E. We have conservatively assumed 0% growth in fees for 2009E as a base case. We have also imputed a 23% increase in loan-loss provisions,
expecting new NPL influx to rise to 190bps from 174bps, with a rise in noncard delinquency offset by continued improvements in card delinquency.
Weathering a downturn — We believe Chinatrust is better positioned to weather a downturn vis-a-vis peers with CAR at 11.8% and tier-1 at 8.6%. With the credit/cash card crisis largely behind it, asset quality continues to improve with NPL ratio at 1.5% and loan-loss reserve coverage at 78%. Its deposit franchise
and liquidity position also appear secure with LDR at 85% for NT$ loans and 69% for foreign currency loans.
Risks to our view — Chinatrust’s QFII ownership is down from a peak of 60%, but at 50% is still the highest in the space. We could also see higher credit cost from Chinatrust USA, which accounts for 6% of group loans. Although its exposure to commercial real estate and construction is high, management indicated LTV ratios are conservative at 57% and 45%, respectively.
中信金(2891)一向是外資法人投資台灣金融股的最愛，這一點從外資持有中信金比重達50.13%，高居所有金融類股之冠可以看出，然而中信金為何能被外資所青睞？中信集團在台灣歷史悠久且政商關係良好、中信金與法人互動關係良好、中信金在台灣消費金融市場市佔率高….等因素是主因，獲利能力、現金流量、經營階層的誠信….等價值投資法所注重的要素，反而是其次了。
無論是和信集團的台泥、中橡，又或是中信集團的中信金控、開發金控、中壽、凱基證券等，從未列入在正通的觀察名單中，最主要的原因就在經營者身上。巴菲特的8項選股標準中(請參考關於巴菲特(七))有一項是…經營者理性、忠誠，始終以股東利益為先，我們從來不認為中信集團有做到這一點。
在台灣，經營權與所有權多數是合而為一的，如果我們從』利己』的角度來思考，經營階層(含關係人)持股比例較高的公司，經營者較有可能以股東利益為先，因為他們持股比例高，公司獲利與虧損的多寡，直接且大幅度影響到他們自己的財富。以巴菲特管理的波克夏為例，他的持股佔波克夏的股本比例為39.5%，而且他幾乎所有的財產就是擁有波克夏的股票而已。
以中信金為例，董監事+經營階層的持股比例只有9.26%，而這些持股又有將近九成的比例都作為董監事向銀行借錢的擔保品，換句話說，如果中信金突然倒閉，董監事+經營階層的實質金錢損失，只佔所有股本不到1%，超過99%都是股東與借錢給董監事的銀行。
如果我們用更負面的角度來思考，中信金08年2Q的資產總額高達1708億元，股東權益總額為1479億元，董監事+經營階層的持股比例只有9.26%，所表彰的股東權益是137億元，我們可以將137億元看成董監事+經營階層的出資金額。但是別忘了，他們的持股有高達九成都質押給其他銀行了，換句話說，他們的出資金額是可以被當成13.7億元(137億元x10%)。
只出資13.7億元，可以擁有資產1708億元的金控經營管理權，這不是很令人驚訝嗎？如果你是股東，你有足夠的信心相信經營者理性、忠誠，始終以股東利益為先？不僅是中信金呈現這種怪異現象，中信集團旗下的中壽(2823)、凱基證券(6008)也都如此，甚至中信集團當初透過中信證(現更名為凱基證券)與中壽買進開發金，進而取得經營權，辜家所動用自己私人的資金其實有限，資金多數來自於集團旗下的公司或銀行借貸所得，試問，這麼低的出資金額竟然能夠擁有二家金控(開發金與中信金)的經營管理權，有多少人能放心且相信辜家呢？
今天(10/17)的這則新聞，相信會令眾多小股東們難以入眠…..
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特偵組偵辦前第一家庭疑似洗錢案，搜索「中信金」、「開發金」和元大集團等十六處地點，另外特偵組也以被告身分傳喚「前兆豐金」董事長鄭深池。特偵組表示：搜索行動和二次金改無關，主要是想調查中信和元大等子公司的帳戶和人員，疑似和扁家洗錢案的相關帳戶有不明的資金往來。
特偵組十七號下午發動大規模搜索兵分十六路，搜索中信金、元大金、開發金等三家金融控股公司，還包括元大集團總裁馬志玲及中華開發金控總經理辜仲瑩住處等十六個地點，特偵組發言人 陳雲南表示搜索目的主要是檢方查出這三家金控公司的子公司帳戶及人員，疑似和洗錢案的相關帳戶有不明資金往來，另外兆豐金控前董事長鄭深池，檢方以被告身分傳喚他到案，陳雲南做了說明。
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我們另外提供下列這則…舊聞，各位可以思考並提醒自己，事隔才沒幾年，為何中信金的股東們會全然沒有警惕？
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中信金插旗兆豐金弊案，台北地方法院今天判決前中信金財務長張明田等三名被告八年到七年兩個月不等徒刑，全案仍可上訴。至於實際決策的前中信金副董事長辜仲諒，案發後一直未到案滯留海外，當時已遭台北地檢署通緝，通緝時效將至2031年三月。
辜仲諒因涉嫌違反證交法與銀行法等罪，不法金額龐大，依銀行法第一百二十五條之二規定，為最輕本刑七年以上重罪。北檢當初依犯罪時間檢視，認定辜仲諒涉案情節的追訴期達二十年，若連同遭通緝，得再加重四分之一追訴期合併計算，使得追訴時效長達二十五年。北檢已於2006年三月發布通緝。
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其實投資人可以透過許多小細節，瞭解一家公司經營階層能否符合巴菲特的8項選股標準，上例只是其中之一罷了。
正通投資團隊為何堅持『專業』與『誠信』的服務態度，在經歷此一事件後，相信所有朋友都將體會到更深一層的意義。
欲觀看此研究報告全文者，請按 2891 中信金 研究報告 – 花旗 下載
10/19新增
BNP所撰關於台灣金融股的研究報告，請按 taiwan banks 下載
美林所撰關於中壽(2823)、台新金(2887)、玉山金(2884)、新光金(2888)、國泰金(2882)、第一金(2892)的研究報告，請按 2823 中壽 研究報告 、2882 國泰金 研究報告 、2884 玉山金 研究報告 、2887 台新金 研究報告 、2888 新光金 研究報告 、2892 first financial 第一金 、Chang Hwa Bank 彰銀 2801 研究報告 閱讀全文
11/15新增
Motgan Stanley 對 新光金的研究報告，欲閱讀全文者請按 Shin Kong FHC 2888 新光金
11/27新增
First FHC (2892 第一金) – BNP Paribas Research
Above legal requirement for capital
Stress testing : no equity recap needed if NPL below 4%
Asset quality debate regarding First FHC prompted us to conduct recap simulation. Under our base case with 100bp credit cost, mid case with 200bp and worst case with 300bp stress testing, we believe that as long as First can control NPL ratio below 4% (or credit cost 200bp as our mid case), there is very low possibility that First will need to recapitalize its equity base in 2009. However, if Taiwan’s economy is worse than expected and the NPL ratio hits 6% level (or credit cost 300bp as our worst case), First might need to raise equity capital as a precautionary measure. Taiwan’s legal minimum is 8% for tier 1 and tier 2 capital ratio. But we set our “comfort zone” as 10% for stress testing. In our stress testing scenarios, we identified Taishin (2887 TT; REDUCE; TP: TWD4.8) as the worst affected bank; it will need fresh equity even in base case. E Sun (2884 TT; REDUCE; TP: TWD7.8) was the second worst affected bank as it barely passes the mid case scenario. This is inline with our prior call to stay away from smaller cap banks as capital becomes expensive to acquire under the current stress environment.
欲閱讀全文者請按 2892 第一金 研究報告 – BNP
6/23 2009 新增
Taishin FHC(2887 台新金) – Merrill Lynch Research
Balance sheet concern removed
Raise PO but maintain Underperform
We raise our PO to NT$8.5/shr by removing the discount we gave to Taishin’s fair value as our concerns on its stretched balance will lessen after Taishin sells its securities business for NT$29bn (announced 15 May). However, we maintain U/P as we expect slow improvement in earnings. The stock is fully priced at 1x P/BV
(on pro-forma basis) vs. LT RoE of ~6%. The 1x P/BV prices in the inclusion of the gain from this deal and also takes out the goodwill on the investment in CHB.
欲閱讀全文者請按 2887台新金研究報告-ml
China Development FHC (2883 開發金) – Macquarie Research
Tech sector proxy
Action and recommendation
Maintain Neutral. CDFHC’s core venture capital business makes it a proxy on the outlook for the Taiwan/Greater China technology industries. Macquarie’s Taiwan head of research, Daniel Chang, recently downgraded his tech sector weighting from Overweight to Neutral due to 2H09 margin compression and a peak in the earnings revisions cycle (for details see Dan’s 9 June note, Will we see a repeat of 1H08?). In light of this top-down view, the operating outlook for CDFHC should remain tough in 2H09 given tepid
expected investment returns and underwriting profitability..
欲閱讀全文者請按 2883 開發金研究報告-MACQ
Chinatrust FHC (2891 中信金) – Macquarie Research
US subsidiary NPLs approach 20%
Action and recommendation
Maintain Underperform. While Chinatrust fits our preferred category of largecap private sector names, its US exposure is a specific earnings hazard that we would seek to avoid. The key risk to the stock call – but not to earnings – is further excitement fostered by cross-Strait newsflow.
欲閱讀全文者請按 2891中信金研究報告-MACQ
