以下是本週幾篇重要的外資研究報告，提供該份報告的摘要如下，各位可參考閱讀，但切勿作為買賣的依據。
研究報告的更新以新增的方式增加在後面
Taiwan hardware signals – Industry Overview (Merrill Lynch)
Cautious but not pessimistic
Surprisingly, upside for September; milder 4Q
Taiwan hardware sales for September increased 13% MoM, surprisingly ahead of our estimate of 10%, despite concerns about the weakening economy in Europe and the US. The upside came from solid NB PC/Netbook demand, stronger demand from China and ramp ups of new handsets. We expect 4Q sales to grow 5-10% QoQ (vs. 10-20% in the past), with a 5% MoM increase in October.
PC: Supported by Netbooks and China
Combined PC shipments increased 13% MoM to 21.2mn in September and were roughly in line with our estimate. We note that demand for low-priced consumer NB PCs (regular/Netbook) and motherboards from China remained solid despite some shortfall from OEM’s DT PCs and corporate/high-end NB PCs. We expect
4Q units to grow only 2% QoQ with the peak month in October (up 4% MoM).
Handset: Remain cautious, despite short-term sell-in
Revenue for handset suppliers increased another 10% MoM on average, helped by new model launches and strength in smartphones (Apple, RIMM and HTC). We think their positive views for 4Q are risky (>10% QoQ vs MLe: 5-10%), despite an early pull-in. We recommend that investors remain on the sidelines given
further pressure on ASP and decelerating unit growth.
Slight upside for 3Q results; but downside for 4Q/2009
The majority of our universe, particularly for the NB PC sector, have met or exceeded our 3Q revenue estimates. Along with higher contract prices, favorable FX rate and stable, if not lower, material costs, we expect most PC companies to at least meet our 3Q earnings expectations. However, we note that we might
need to revise down our revenue assumptions for 4Q08 and even 2009.
Top picks: Acer, Compal, Simplo
Our top picks for the hardware sector are Acer(宏碁 ; 2353), Compal(仁寶 ; 2324) and Simplo(新普 ; 2324). Acer and Simplo are well positioned to capture emerging growth from Netbooks for 2009 (over 50% YoY). Among NB PC ODMs and EMS, Compal offers the best value with lowered expectations. In addition, all three companies have strong balance sheets/net cash and decent cash flow. Acer is also in the most preferred lists for both Taiwan and regional technology.
要觀看此份美林的研究報告者，請按 taiwan hardware signals 閱讀全文。另提供BNP出具的 taiwan notebook odm 研究報告提供各位一併參考(內含廣達2382、緯創3231、仁寶2324)
Richtek Technology (立錡 ; 6286)- Merrill Lynch Research
Waiting for better visibility on new product cycle
Analyst meeting; no details on op profit and bottom line
Richtek held its 3Q analyst meeting today. Its 3Q sales of NT$2bn, up 15% QoQ and 16.5% YoY, are in line with our estimate. Gross margin climbed to 39.4% in 3Q, which is better than our estimate of 38.5% thanks to NTD depreciation and cost down efforts. However, the company didn’t provide any details about its
operating profit and bottom line at the analyst meeting. We expect its EPS to reach NT$3.3, up 31% QoQ and down 18% YoY.
Better-than-expected 4Q margin guidance
Management has turned less negative on its 4Q outlook and is guiding a sequential sales decline of 4-9% and gross margin of 38-40%. It indicated that demand from local handset makers in China remains solid while PC-related products should decline in line with seasonality. The contribution from new products such as high-voltage power management IC and LCD system power management remains low; better visibility is expected in 2009.
When to turn positive?
Despite its recent 30% share price correction amid the financial turmoil, Richtek’s share price is it still trades at a premium P/E to its local and global peers. We see the risk of de-rating ahead given Richtek’s deteriorating transparency, uncertain tech demand and macro headwinds. We’ll turn more positive on the stock when we have better visibility on its new product delivery.
要觀看此份美林所出具立錡的研究報告者，請按 richtek technology 立錡 6286 閱讀全文，另外一併提供DAIWA與J.P.Morgan所出具立錡的研究報告給各位參考，請按 richtek 6286 、 Richtek Technology 立錡 6286 – JPMorgan 閱讀全文
Taiwan Fabless (IC設計)- BNP Paribas
• NEGATIVE across the sector; the economic slowdown will lead to industry consolidation.
• Valuation de-rating for the short term (to 12x from 15x earlier); until 1H09 for Taiwan IC makers’ (10-15% discount).
• In the long view: We expect Realtek and Richtek to take the lead as likely industry consolidators.
De-rating a forerunner of consolidation
Massive consolidation of Taiwan IC design houses Taiwan IC design houses’ net income growth (43% y-y down in 1H08 for leading 12 IC design houses) has underperformed significantly (compared to the top five foundry makers, which are 13% y-y up), indicating that there will be serious consolidation across the sector. We believe the valuation is de-rating for Taiwan IC design houses, as a reflection of the upcoming industry consolidation. Our updated valuation for Taiwan major IC design houses is 12x 12-month forward earnings.
Consolidation trend in 2009 appears likely
We believe that 2008-2009 will show a clear trend towards consolidation among IC design houses. We believe this is intended to achieve: 1) a drive towards economies of scale and earnings efficiency, and 2)
second-tier players making a move towards spin offs in order to ensure their survival. Significant de-rating happening currently (to 12x from 15x earlier) will lead to consolidation.
Short-term de-rating; long-term valuation re-rating
We expect valuation de-rating until 1H09 for Taiwan IC makers’ (10-15% discount as usual). However, there will be re-rating later, as world-class IC makers emerge (after consolidation). This should help Taiwan
makers catch up to the same valuation as global IC makers.
Realtek (瑞昱 ; 2379) and Richtek(立錡 ; 6286) are on our watch list
We have a cautious view in the near-term, in light of the global deceleration in the semiconductor industry from 4Q08-1Q09, and because inventories are currently being built up in 4Q08. In the longer view, we prefer Realtek and Richtek, as they are likely to lead consolidation across the IC industry.
要觀看此份美林所出具立錡的研究報告者，請按 taiwan fabless 閱讀全文
Hon Hai Precision (鴻海 ; 2317) – Goldman Sachs
Removed from Asia Pacific Buy List
Expect strong 3Q, followed by weak 4Q and 2009. D/G to Neutral
What happened
We downgrade Hon Hai (HH) from Buy to Neutral. HH reported Sept parent sales of NT$157mn, 8% higher than we expected. However, we think 4Q growth may be below seasonality due to desktop (DT) order cancellations and possible weaker than seasonal consumer demand. We believe 2009 visibility is low and more likely to show downside than upside on weak macro conditions.
We revise down our 2008 revenues/ earnings forecasts by 1.7%/ 8.6%, 2009 revenues/ earnings forecasts by 13.5%/ 12.1%, and 2010 revenues/ earnings forecasts by 14.9%/ 8.7%. HH’s share price increased 59.9% (versus a 10.4% drop in the TWSE) since we added it to the Buy list on Sept 2, 2004.
Current view
We expect HH’s 4Q sales growth will be below seasonality (up 8% qoq) due to weak macro conditions and high 3Q comparative base. Our industry checks suggest US OEMs have started to cut 4Q DT orders on weak replacement demand and market share losses to NB. We believe the expected 4Q sales increase from consolidating Sanmina-SCI revenues and PS3/iPod Nano business may be offset by a sequential drop in iPhone shipments. Moreover, we believe 2009 growth may slow on macro concerns. We reduce our 2009 NB growth forecast to reflect delays introducing Intel’s new CPUs and potential market share shift to Quanta for Sony’s NB orders. Unless HH buys Dell’s for-sale global assembly centers, we think Hon Hai’s 2009 growth could be capped.
Because HH is often considered a proxy for the economy, we also think HH could be priced to reflect the current difficult macro conditions. We believe HH’s 8%/ 9% share price underperformance versus the TWSE/ TWELEC since the recent peak partly reflects expectations of weaker earnings and partially reflect economic
concerns.
We lower our 12-mth TP to NT$115, based on 11X 2009E EPS (from NT$166, based on 14X 2009E EPS), implying 2.4X one quarter trailing PB, versus historical trend of 1.9X-7.7X.
Key risks include earlier than we expected macro turnaround and faster than we expected market share gain.
要觀看此份高盛所出具鴻海的研究報告者，請按 hon hai 鴻海 2317 閱讀全文
———————–11/15 新增外資研究報告————————-
Hon Hai Precision (鴻海 ; 2317) – Goldman Sachs
Valuations may be close to trough, but fundamentals likely peaked
What’s changed
Hon Hai reported October sales of NT$169 bn (up 8% mom, up 29% yoy), slightly better than market expectations; but we think this is likely the peak in 4Q, vs. the historical peak in the month of December. Consistent with our previous commentary that Hon Hai’s 4Q momentum may be below normal seasonality due to DT weakness and demand slowdown for iPhone, Cisco (Hon Hai’s key customer for the networking devices business) has guided CY4Q08 sales growth to decline 5%-10% yoy. In addition, our industry checks suggest the NB and TV businesses may also be below our original forecast for 2009. As such, we lower our
2008E/2009E/2010E revenue estimates by 0.7%/4.2%/7.2% and 2008E/2009E/2010E earnings estimates by 1%/11%/12%.
Valuation
We maintain our Neutral rating, but cut our 12-m target price to NT$86 (on 9X our new 2009E EPS) from NT$107 (10X 2009E EPS). We lower the target multiple to discount macro and relocation risks. Our target price implies 1.7X trailing one-quarter P/B, versus historical range of 1.4X-5.0X.
要觀看此份高盛所出具鴻海的研究報告者，請按 Hon Hai 2317 鴻海 閱讀全文
11/27新增
Hon Hai Precision (鴻海 ; 2317) – Morgan Stanley Research
Growing Deleverage Pains
Downgrade to Equal-weight: We lower our earnings estimates by 12% and 16% for 2009 and 2010, respectively, to discount deteriorating end demand across the board that would affect Hon Hai’s top-line
momentum despite incremental new project wins. Slower revenues would cap OM expansion even if Hon
Hai could quickly streamline its cost structure, and thereby hurt bottom-line performance. We cut our price
target to NT$65 to reflect our reduced earnings forecasts and mid-term growth rate. The stock trades below 1x 2009e P/B, vs. 0.5x P/B average for other EMS peers. Our SOP analysis shows its core business still trades at 10x P/E for 2009e. We believe the stock is unlikely to perform until signs of OM bottoming emerge.
要觀看此份鴻海的研究報告者，請按 Hon Hai 2317 鴻海 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley 閱讀全文
Taiwan IC design (IC設計) – Macquarie Research
2009 – seeking diamonds in the sand
2008 review and 2009 brief outlook
2008 was difficult for the Taiwan IC design sector with negative impact seen in terms of employee bonus, NT$ appreciation, demand slowdown and global competition. Unfortunately, we expect 2009 to remain tough as the risk to demand is on the downside, new killer applications are absent, and with continued pressure on ASP and margins from competition and customers. Thus, we believe investors need to be extremely selective.
Limited drivers across the board …
We do not see many meaningful drivers in 2009. Demand in all major sectors, including PCs, handsets, and panels, is likely to be muted. Blu-ray discs (BD) and solid-state drives (SSD) are more possible as a 2H09/2010 story due to their high cost. Netbooks may be the only high growth segment to provide relief for PC-focused IC companies, but shipment growth is likely to be offset by value erosion. Analog ICs may see muted growth from competition and consolidation.
要觀看全文者，請按 Taiwan IC Design IC設計研究報告 – 麥格里 閱讀全文
01/20新增
Hon Hai Precision (鴻海 ; 2317) - Macquarie Research
Why you should pick me
We recommend HHP over TSMC. Although TSMC (2330 TT, NT$41, UP, TP: NT$35) has superior leadership and management in the foundry sector, we believe HHP will begin to outperform TSMC due to its strong downside support and stronger upside potential than TSMC.
Given its solid profitability, we do not think HHP will trade below its 09 book, which implies the stock has less than 10% downside from here. However, TSMC’s downside could be much greater given its outlook for losses, shrinking ROE performance and stretched P/BV valuation. Even if the cycle turns positive, HHP should outperform TSMC. HHP is trading at 7-8x 09E PER (its historical low) and 1-1.1x P/BV with ROE of 14-15%, while TSMC is at 2.5-2.6x P/BV with ROE of only 3%. There is more scope for HHP to rise by 50% in an upcycle as the stock would trade at only 11-12x PER, which is still at the low end of its trading range. Based on the same portfolio performance, TSMC would have to trade up to 3.5-4x P/BV, which we see as highly unlikely.
要觀看此份鴻海的研究報告者，請按 Hon Hai 2317 鴻海 研究報告 – MACQ 閱讀全文，另一併提供 Hon Hai 2317 鴻海 研究報告 – 美林 予各位參考
Compal Electronics (仁寶 ; 2324) - Merrill Lynch Research
Looking beyond the trough ; retain Buy
Lower estimates and PO, but retain Buy rating
2008 was a tough year for Compal, dragged down by the NB market slowdown and poor results from its LT holding affiliates. Hence, we lower our 2008/09 EPS by 8%/21% respectively, and reduce our 12-month PO to NT$22.5 (8x P/E, 1x BVPS) from NT$27.5. Although 1Q09 momentum should remain weak, we think it
is a good opportunity for investors to Buy the stock before its shipments resume in 2Q09 (Netbook and Toshiba share gain). Currently, it is trading at 0.8x P/BV and offers ~10% cash yield.
要觀看全文者，請按 Compal 2324 仁寶 研究報告 – 美林 閱讀全文
02/12新增
Hon Hai Precision (鴻海 ; 2317) - JPMorgan Research
2009 operating environment stays tough; capital raising an added concern
2009 to be another tough year; stay Neutral: With high exposure to corporate market (desktops, networking) and discretionary consumer products (MP3 player, game console, DSC), we expect Hon Hai’s earnings to decline sharply in 2009. In addition, weaker end markets and loosening labor supply in China should make the benefits of new lowcost locations less attractive. Working capital issues also continue to weigh down the near-term outlook, leading to potential dilutive fund raising. We cut FY09/10E EPS by 13/12% and reduce our DCF based Jun-09 PT to NT$58. Key risk is sharp recovery in end markets.
要觀看此份鴻海的研究報告者，請按 Hon Hai 2317 鴻海 研究報告 – JPMorgan 閱讀全文
Taiwan hardware signals – Industry Overview (Merrill Lynch)
Gap between forecast and shipments narrows
Top picks: Acer and Compal for netbooks
Acer and Compal are our top picks, given their better growth momentum from late 1Q on new netbook launch and strong BS/execution. Acer should benefit from ongoing restructuring at both Asustek and Lenovo and huge losses at its Japanese competitors (ie, Toshiba/Sony). As for Compal, we expect the company to be a share gainer in 2009 among the top 4 ODMs, given its wins at Acer (netbook) and Toshiba.
要觀看此份研究報告者，請按 Taiwan hardware signals – 美林 閱讀全文
06/23 新增
Hon Hai Precision (鴻海 ; 2317) - BNP Research
Upgrade to BUY; TP TWD120.00
Hon Hai’s recent share-price correction provides a good opportunity to accumulate: It is gaining market share, has improved its cost structure and has enhanced its R&D since late 2008. For global OEMs, it is the
best partner to tap into the fast-growing China domestic market, given its superiority in supply-chain management and local know-how. Our target price represents 16x 12-month forward P/E, which has been its average historic trading range since 1999.
要觀看此份鴻海的研究報告者，請按 2317 鴻海 研究報告 -BNP 閱讀全文
Compal Electronics (仁寶 ; 2324) - Merrill Lynch Research
Reasonable valuation; await next product cycle
Fine tune estimates, retain Neutral rating
We fine tune our estimates for Compal’s 2009/10 earnings (with quarterly forecasts for 2010) and reiterate our PO at NT$32.0 (on a 2009/10E mid-cycle P/E of 9x). With 2Q09 business on track and a reasonable valuation, we suggest revisiting the stock at the next meaningful project cycle kick-off, or at a share price
below the BVPS (NT$22).
要觀看全文者，請按 2324仁寶研究報告-ml 閱讀全文
Wistron (緯創 ; 3231) - Goldman Sachs Research
Focus on fundamentals after GDR issuance; still Conviction Buy
What’s changed
Wistron’s share price has been volatile since peaking June 1 at NT$54.5. We believe this is a technical and seasonal pullback, and may also reflect market uncertainty related to the 150 mn GDR share issuance on June 15 at NT$49, representing a 2% discount to Wistron’s last close; the total offering size was approximately US$223.5 million. In addition to the nine reasons to buy Wistron we discussed in our June 1 note, our industry checks indicate that HP will be awarding 1H10 orders to major ODMs in the near future, of which Wistron may gain share from peers, in our view. Also, Wistron has said the handset/push mail device from a US OEM may contribute 5% of its 2010 revenues in its conference call with investors on
June 12, indicating 3mn units for 2010 if we assume an ASP of US$300.
要觀看全文者，請按 3231緯創研究報告-GS 閱讀全文
Inventec Company (英業達 ; 2356) - Merrill Lynch Research
Expect slower 2H; price correction may continue
Fine tune estimates, retain our cautious view
We fine tune our estimates for Inventec’s 2009/10 earnings (with quarterly forecasts for 2010), with PO at NT$15.0 (rollover to 2009/10E mid-cycle P/E of 8x). With potential earnings downside in 2Q and slower momentum in 2H, we expect further share price correction. We retain our Underperform rating for the
stock and will revisit when see improvement in earnings quality.
2Q09 could only meet low-end guidance
Our recent check shows Inventec could only meet the low-end of its 10-15% QoQ sales and NB unit growth guidance for 2Q, due to a delay in new model shipments (despite a double-digit MoM rebound in June). In addition, we are also concerned about potential FX losses due to significant currency swings in 2Q09 (Inventec usually incurs huge FX losses when the NTD appreciates by over 2% per quarter).
要觀看全文者，請按 2356英業達研究報告-ml 閱讀全文
