以下是本週幾份外資研究報告，提供報告的摘要如下，各位可參考閱讀，但切勿作為買賣的依據。報告更新的方式將列於本文最下方。
Taiwan banks (Macquarie Research)
National treasures?
Outlook
Remain Underweight: The Taiwan financials on a weak macroeconomic outlook and persistent structural weaknesses. We think there is more downside for the stocks. Top Underperforms include Chinatrust (中信金 ; 2891), Mega (兆豐金 ; 2886) and Taishin(台新金 ; 2887). Our top Outperform is First FHC (第一金 ; 2892), but confidence is weak and investors who don’t have to be here should continue to avoid the sector entirely. Consolidation, if it occurs, is likely to be led by state banks buying troubled private sector banks, but don’t expect a premium.
欲閱讀全文者請按 taiwan banks 研究報告 – macq
Taiwan banks update 10/20 (Macquarie Research)
Forex lending: The innocents abroad
Outlook
Remain Underweight. We believe the banks have once again mispriced risk in the headlong rush to expand forex loans to fund manufacturers in China before a global economic slowdown. Credit risk after several years of aggressive growth, liquidity risk in the interbank markets and an expected drop-off in loan demand would suppress momentum, at which point credit costs would likely increase. Collateralization may limit the downside, but we question the value of collateral if Taiwan slips into recession in 2009. Our top
Underperforms are Chinatrust(中信金 ; 2891), Taishin(台新金 ; 2887), Mega(兆豐金 ; 2886), and TBB(台企銀 ; 2834).
欲閱讀全文者請按 taiwan banks update – macq
Fubon Financial Holdings (富邦金 ; 2881)
ING Life Taiwan deal: Strategic positive, mixed financial impacts
Valuation
The market may view the deal positively for the complementary business profile and below-EV transaction value, in our view. We maintain our Neutral rating and 12-month SOTP-based target price at NT$27.
欲閱讀全文者請按 2881 Fubon 富邦金 研究報告 – 花旗 、2881 Fubon 富邦金 研究報告 – 高盛 (註：這二份報告主要在表達富邦金併購ING 安泰人壽，分析師的評論)
Delta (台達電 ; 2308) – Macquarie Research
Margins rebounding
Action and recommendation
Delta is one of our top picks in tech and Taiwan. Thanks to its strong balance sheet, Delta appears high on our screens of defensive stocks. It has been resilient at NT$75–90 for most of 2008. The stock has outperformed the TWSE index by 29/34% in the past 3/6 months and 12% YTD. Our target price of NT$110 is based on a 2008E PER of 18x. Our previous target price was NT$118 based on an average estimated 20x PER for 2008 and 2009.
欲閱讀全文者請按 delta 台達電 2308 研究報告
Siliconware Precision (矽品 ; 2325) – Deutsche Bank Research
Cutting earnings forecast and TP
We reduce our EPS forecasts by 1% for 2008, 10% for 2009, and 9% for 2010 to reflect weaker global demand, driven by the credit crunch. We expect weaker momentum in key customers (Nvidia and MediaTek), which should trigger more earnings downside risks from 1H09 and beyond. We cut our TP from NT$42 to
NT$32 and reiterate our Hold rating.
欲閱讀全文者請按 2325 矽品 spil 研究報告
China Steel Corporation (中鋼 ; 2002) – Goldman Sachs Research
Adding to Conviction Sell list; not “closing the stable doors”…
Valuation
We are cutting our 12-m EV/EBITDA-based TP to NT$19.90/US$12.40 (GDR) from NT$45.05/US$31.60, due to our lower earnings ests. We are also using bottom-of-cycle, rather than mid-cycle, multiples, and have
rolled forward the basis of our price targets to 2009 earnings. Our TP equates to 2009E P/B of 1X and P/E of 6.4X.
欲閱讀全文者請按 2002 中鋼 China Steel 研究報告
Compal Electronics (仁寶 ; 2324) – Merrill Lynch Research
A defensive play for value investors; Buy
Downside scenario also suggests that valuation is at trough
Compal is currently trading at 6.8x 2008E P/E and 1.1x P/BV. Even under our downside scenario analysis (only 6-10% YoY sales growth for 2009E, further deterioration in OP margin by 10-20bp and no improvement in VIBO/TPO investments), Compal is trading at 6.6-7.0x 2009E P/E – its historical trough
valuation since 2001.
欲閱讀全文者請按 2324 compal 仁寶 研究報告
Far Eastern Textile (遠紡 ; 1402) – Merrill Lynch Research
Long-term value exists, despite near-term pain
Buy reiterated; PO of NT$36 maintained
We maintain Buy and long-term positive view on Far Eastern Textile as it will benefit from lower raw material prices and see gradual improvement in operating income, despite near-term negative of equity losses from investment-related subsidiaries (Oriental Securities and other investment companies). The company looks attractively valued, trading at a trough valuation of 0.5x our SOTP-based fair value of NT$45. Our PO remains based on 0.8x SOTP-based fair value.
欲閱讀全文者請按 1402 遠紡 研究報告
Uni-President Enterprises Corp (統一 ; 1216) – Merrill Lynch Research
Not a safe haven as may seem
Lower growth but higher valuation multiples
We cut our PO to NT$27.9 from NT$34.6. The market is assigning a generous valuation for UPE – 1.8x P/B with only 9.1% ROE and 19x/15x 2008E-09E PER. It is trading at above-industry multiples but with below-industry growth against pure regional peers that derive pure China growth. Only 33% of UPE’s NAV (Uni-
President China) is exposed to China growth, but the remaining parts have limited growth outlook. UPE traded below 1x NAV most of the time and near 0.6x NAV during the 2000-01 downturn. We retain our Underperform rating.
欲閱讀全文者請按 1216 統一 研究報告
10/31 更新 矽品 2325 與 統一 1216 研究報告
Siliconware Precision (矽品 ; 2325) – Macquarie Research
We think it is premature to turn positive given potential downside earnings risks on low visibility and huge pricing pressure. We expect SPIL’s ROE to drop for the third year in a row to 12.1% in 2009 from 26.5% in 2007. Of this, its quarterly ROE in 1H09 is likely to be below 10%. Maintain Underperform.
欲閱讀全文者請按 SPIL 2325 矽品 研究報告 – MACQ ，另提供 SPIL 2325 矽品 研究報告 – 花旗、SPIL 2325 矽品 研究報告 – 美林 予各位一併參考
Uni-President Enterprises Corp (統一 ; 1216) – Goldman Sachs Research
Discipline pay offs in volatile market; maintain Buy
We cut our 12-m SOTP-based TP to NT$33 (from NT$37) to reflect the latest market prices for UPEC’s listed subsidiaries and apply a 15% discount to BV of its unlisted investment, given investors’ increased concerns about volatility in equity investment. We reduce our 2008E-2010E earnings forecast by about 2% post 3Q results. We do not view these changes as material and maintain our positive view and Buy rating on UPEC.
欲閱讀全文者請按 1216 統一 研究報告 – 高盛
11/27新增
Uni-President Enterprises Corp (統一 ; 1216) – 麥格里(Macquarie) Research
We look at 3Q08 results from Tingyi (322HK, HK$8.89, Not rated) to evaluate Uni-President China’s operations and provide a business update on Uni- President Taiwan.
We reaffirm our Underperform rating on the shares with a target price of NT$25. We acknowledge that Uni-President will benefit from falling raw materials prices; however, we believe this is already in the shares, which have rallied by 40% from their low. In addition, we worry more about the company’s competitiveness and the intensive price cuts in the China F&B market.
Uni-President’s valuation does not look attractive at a 23x 2009E PER and a 1.8x 2009E P/BV, which is above the 15x 2009E PER of average Hong Konglisted F&B names. The leading player, TingYi, is now trading at a 21x 2009E consensus PER, so we think Uni-President’s premium valuation is not justified.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Uni-President Enterprises 1216 統一 研究報告 – 麥格里
China Steel Corporation (中鋼 ; 2002) – Merrill Lynch Research
Further steel price cut needed; PO down to NT$17
Deteriorating steel industry dynamics
After the in line 23% QoQ price cut for 1Q09, we believe CSC needs to cut its 2Q09 price by a further 15% QoQ (from our previous assumption of 10%) to respond to competitors’ more aggressive price cuts due to further steel industry deterioration. We reduce 2009E/10E EPS by 13%/11%. We also cut our PO to NT$17 (based on 1x P/BV) from NT$20. Unprecedented losses (we expect three consecutive quarters) may lead CSC to de-rate to trough valuations of 0.8-0.9x.
欲閱讀全文者請按 China Steel Corporation 2002 中鋼 研究報告 – Merrill Lynch
Far Eastern Textile (遠紡 ; 1402) – 麥格里(Macquarie) Research
Impressive core margin improvement
We reiterate Outperform on Far Eastern Textile with target price of NT$25/sh. Far Eastern Textile can benefit from falling feedstock price, which also echoes our regional “Mega themes for 2009-beneficiary of deflation”.
We believe 60% of earnings from Far EasTone (4904 TT, NT$35.8, OP, TP: NT$43.3) and a cash dividend of at least NT$1/sh is a good buffer in a bear market, but polyester and land asset development should provide upside if we see the economy recover. We expect the impressive earnings result will be the catalyst to the share price.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Far Eastern Textile 1402 遠紡 研究報告 – 麥格里
01/20新增
China Steel Corporation (中鋼 ; 2002) – Macquarie Research
Reduced expectations
We have reduced our target price for China Steel (CSC) to NT$15 from NT$16 after lowering our earnings estimates on the back of our new global commodity price expectations and reduced global GDP projections. Our target price continues to be based on a target 0.9x FY09E P/BV multiple. We maintain our Underperform rating for CSC.
欲閱讀全文者請按 China Steel 2002 中鋼 研究報告 – MACQ
Delta (台達電 ; 2308) – Goldman Sachs Research
Demand crunch to squeeze Delta’s edges; initiate Sell, on Conv List
Source of opportunity
We initiate coverage on Delta Electronics with a Sell rating (on Conviction Sell List) and a 12-month TP of NT$44, implying 27% downside potential. While Delta enjoys a competitive advantage in terms of solid R&D capabilities and economies of scale, we believe the sharp decline in end-demand, particularly in the 3C area, has prompted OEMs to see pricing, not product leadership, as the top priority when choosing power supply vendors. This, in our view, has resulted in Delta finding it difficult to maintain ROE, dividends, and EBIT
margin, which are normally strong share price drivers. With optimistic FY09E earnings consensus and rich valuations, we would Sell Delta into strengt
欲閱讀全文者請按 Delta 2308 台達電 研究報告 – 高盛
02/10新增
SPIL (矽品 ; 2325) – Macquarie Research
Likely the first loss since 2001
While 1Q09 may mark the bottom, we believe the expected recovery may be muted and sustainability remains a concern due to the worsening macro outlook. Despite SPIL being the best in its class, it is likely to face peer competition. Thus, recovery of its profitability and ROE may be deferred. We prefer to stay on the sideline and think NT$18–20 (1.1-1.2x P/NAV) is a better entry level for long-term investments. Maintain Underperform.
欲閱讀全文者請按 SPIL 2325 矽品 研究報告 – MACQ，另提供 SPIL 2325 矽品 研究報告 – 德銀、SPIL 2325 矽品 研究報告 – 高盛、SPIL 2325 矽品 研究報告 – 花旗、SPIL 2325 矽品 研究報告 – 美林 予各位一併參考
Taiwan financial 台灣金融股 (Macquarie Research)
US/EU marketing feedback
Valuations are near their historical lows and short-term trading opportunities should emerge periodically as the China MOU story makes its way to fruition, perhaps as early as 2Q09. However, the underlying structural and cyclical issues force us to maintain an Underweight call for now.
We particularly urge investors to avoid the state banks, including First FHC (第一金 2892)and Mega FHC (兆豐金 2886 ). We also have a non-consensus Underperform on Chinatrust given the stock’s specific strategic and asset quality issues as well as the persistent QFII overweight. For clients who have to own the stocks, we recommend Fubon FHC (富邦金 2881) as a low-beta defensive name given its capital cushion. We also have an Outperform on Sinopac (永豐金 2890) given the company’s battered valuations and (we believe) purged balance sheet.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Financial 研究報告 – MACQ
Delta (台達電 ; 2308) - JPMorgan Research
No unique earnings driver to justify premium valuation ; stay Neutral
Valuation remains unjustifiably high, stay Neutral: We remain Neutral on the stock and cut our DCF based Jun -09 PT to NT$ 50. We feel that Delta’s current high valuation (1.8x FY09E book, 13x FY09 PE) remains unjustified compared to peers, given similar ROE and medium term earnings growth prospects. As a result we expect the stock to see downward pressure in the near term. We would revisit the stock at more reasonable valuation levels (below NT$ 45), once clarity on new products emerges. Key risk is a big pickup in telecom power revenues. However, we do not think this pickup is likely in 2009.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Delta 2308 台達電 研究報告 – JPMorgan
————————-6/23 2009 ————————–
Taiwan financial 台灣金融股 (BNP Research)
China and Taiwan push cooperation
What’s to be learned from the Haixi Conference?
Strategically speaking, it is a bit late for the Taiwan financial sector to jump start operations in the high-flying Pearl River and Yangze River Delta areas. Fujian province (or the main body of the Haixi Economic
Zone) is a success story by itself, but is facing threats of talent and capital migrating to the neighbouring Pearl River and Yangze River Deltas. Both Haixi and Taiwan, exposed to the risk of being marginalized, need to develop rational economic cooperation and industrial policies to influence policy makers. Now is the best time to experiment with more aggressive cooperation.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Financials 台灣金融業研究報告-BNP 另提供 Taiwan Financials 台灣金融業研究報告-GS、Taiwan Financials 台灣金融業研究報告-HSBC 、台灣壽險業研究報告-GS 一併參考
Delta (台達電 ; 2308) – Morgan Stanley Research
Recovery Underappreciated; Upgrade to OW
Investment conclusion: We upgrade Delta to OW from EW and raise PT to NT$95 as we raise 09e/10e EPS by
4%/25%. Our positive stance reflects our belief that 1) earnings downside for 09 is limited as Delta’s diligent
cost control should lead to faster OPM recovery and concerns that Win 7 and CULV are structurally negative
for Delta are overdone, 2) Delta’s higher OPEX leverage should lead to bigger earnings recovery when sales
growth resumes in 2010 as the PC replacement cycle speeds up, and 3) there is an embedded option if
contributions from new products become material, given Delta’s R&D focus. Delta has underperformed the
TAIEX by 17% since Feb. It is trading at 19.3x/15.4x our 09e/10e EPS, at mid- to low end of the past 3 years’ trading range of 13-24x. We thus upgrade stock to OW.
欲閱讀全文者請按 2308台達電研究報告-MS
