提供欣興 3037、力晶 5346、聯發科 2454、大立光 3008 研究報告的摘要如下，各位可參考閱讀，但切勿作為買賣的依據。(更新方式：新增報告內容在本頁後面)
Unimicron Technology 3037 欣興 – 野村 NOMURA Research
Our view
We see Unimicron’s fundamentals improving with easing margin pressure (due to NT dollar depreciation and falling raw material prices) and Nokia’s potential market share recovery in 4Q08F. Its lead in HDI PCBs should also give it solid footing in the downcycle. With the shares at trough levels, we upgrade to NEUTRAL.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Unimicron 3037 欣興 研究報告
Powerchip Semiconductor Corp. (力晶 ; 5346) – JPMorgan Research
Neutral
Record losses in 3Q08; maintain cautious stance
Maintain cautious stance, remain Neutral: We remain cautious on the memory space, given the sharply weakening demand environment, financing difficulties and erosion of book value. We expect a rebound sometime in 2009, but would favor Tier-1 DRAM makers in an upturn. Powerchip still needs a sharp rebound to come back into profitability and has to contend with debt repayments in the medium term. In addition, the sharp depreciation in the Korean Won makes Taiwan DRAM makers even less competitive. We maintain Neutral and cut our Dec-08 PT to NT$4.6 (0.6x FY08E book) from NT$7.50. A key risk is a faster-than-expected production cut at Tier-1 DRAM makers.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Powerchip 5346 力晶 研究報告 – JPMorgan
Powerchip (力晶 ; 5346) – Morgan Stanley Research
Working for Cash
Conclusion: Powerchip loses more money producing than if it does not produce at all. Its 3Q08 operating loss of NT$10 bn was larger than depreciation of NT$8.7 bn. At Debt/Equity of 186% (net Debt/Equity of 163%), on 0.4x P/B, equity shareholders only account for ~20% of Powerchip’s corporate value. To preserve cash, Powerchip will cut 2008 capex by ~70% Y/Y to NT$20 bn and cut 2009 capex by ~50% Y/Y to NT$10 bn.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Powerchip 5346 力晶 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley
Powerchip Semiconductor Corp. (力晶 ; 5346) – Merrill Lynch Research
PO lowered to NT$3.3;
Maintain Underperform
Cutting PO and EPS by 20-30%; reiterate Underperform
We lower our price objective for Powerchip Semiconductor to NT$3.3 from NT$4.0, and our 2009E EPS by 30%. 3Q results clearly reveal cash burn with a negative OP margin of 70% (vs MLe: -25%). Current DRAM spot price still shows poor margins, and we expect a weak chip pricing environment to continue into
1H09 despite chipmakers’ efforts to reduce their target production and capex spending. Demand is a new concern. We use trough cycle valuations. Reiterate Underperform.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Powerchip 5346 力晶 研究報告 – 美林
關於DRAM產業，正通投資團隊的看法請參考 DRAM 公司是不是一個好的投資標的？！
11/15 新增 Morgan Stanley對力晶的研究報告，欲閱讀全文者請按 Powerchip 5346 力晶
Largan Precision Co. Ltd. (大立光 ; 3008) – Merrill Lynch Research
Fundamentals intact
Catalyst for the stock
Given recent market turmoil, Largan’s share price has corrected around 20% in recent months, while still outperforming TAIEX by 12%. We expect the share price to be volatile in the near term due to market concern over handset growth. However, we believe Largan deserves a substantial valuation premium because it
offers a stronger earnings growth profile (funded from free cash), higher growth rate than its peers, and robust ROE.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Largan 3008 大立光 研究報告 ，另提供 Largan 3008 大立光 研究報告 – HSBC、Largan 3008 大立光 研究報告 – 花旗 予各位一併參考
Mediatek (2454 ; 聯發科) – Merrill Lynch Research
Reiterate Buy on solid fundamentals
While we slightly revised down our FY09 forecast anticipating weaker tech demand and micro headwind, we like Mediatek’s solid product portfolio and intact industry position. The company’s quality balance sheet and strong cash on hand should also provide good support during the downturn. We reiterate our Buy rating
on the company with a PO of NT$408, which is based on 17x FY09E EPS (from previous NT$450, 19x FY08/09E average EPS).
欲閱讀全文者請按 Mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告
Mediatek (2454 ; 聯發科) – Macquarie Research
One step at a time
Price catalyst
12-month price target: NT$500.00 based on a PER methodology.
Catalyst: Better-than-expected results on 30 October and further market share gain from the ongoing industry consolidation.
Action and recommendation
We remain positive on MTK’s long-term outlook. In 2009–2010, MTK is likely to benefit from two (TD-SCDMA and WCDMA) out of the three 3-G platforms in the China telecom industry. With its financial strength and competitiveness, it is also likely to continue to gain more market share following the ongoing
global handset consolidation. Maintain Outperform.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 – MACQ ！10/31 聯發科 2454 更新 MediaTek 2454 聯發科 研究報告
ASE (2311 ; 日月光) – Deutsche Bank Research
Structural positives remain ; retain Buy
Attractive risk/reward
The stock trades at 1.1x 2009E PB, in line with 2001-03 trough. We believe it is oversold due to 1) 8-10% dividend yield, and 2) 2009E-10E average ROE of 18%, which is much higher than the average ROE of -4% during 2001-03. The stock has traded closely to net profit YoY and ROE, which we expect to bottom out from end-4Q08 and trend up in 1Q09. This implies that it should start to be re-rated over the next six months. Our new TP of NT$23 (from NT$34) is based on 1.8x 2009E PB, below 2006-07 average of 2.0x. This can be merited by 2009E-10E average ROE of 18%, slightly lower than 2006-07 average of 20%. Downside risks: slower progress in ramping China operations and weaker end-demand.
欲閱讀全文者請按 ASE 2311 日月光 研究報告
Chunghwa Telecom (中華電 ; 2412) – Macquarie Research
After defying gravity…coming down to earth
Action and recommendation
Our positive thesis on CHT and its top Asia-pick status were premised on its low-risk, stable cashflow and attractive yield. Recent results suggest a marginally more-competitive market than was previously assumed. More important, after the strong de-rating of the rest of the sector, CHT no longer seems as low risk due to its substantial relative valuation premium. Our change in TP methodology reflects our assessment that comparable peer multiples are likely to have a greater influence on stock price than our longterm
DCF valuation (which is NT$87). In Taiwan, we advocate a switch to Far EasTone, and regionally, we recommend a switch to the recently upgraded China Mobile and PT Telkom.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Chunghwa Telecom 中華電 2412 研究報告
Mitac International (神達 ; 2315) – Merrill Lynch Research
Another disappointing quarter ; Underperform
Further downside risks; reiterate Underperform
Mitac released disappointing 3Q08 preliminary pre-tax profits of NT$555mn (-2% QoQ; -70% YoY), ~40% below our estimates and BBG consensus. Given the weaker consumer spending ahead and poor 3Q results, we expect further downside risks to our current 2008/09 earning forecasts and PO (NT$17.55). Thus, we reiterate our Underperform rating, despite its already <1x P/B valuation.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Mitac International 2315 神達 研究報告
11/27 新增
Largan Precision Co. Ltd. (大立光 ; 3008) – Merrill Lynch Research
Even worse than expected
Lower 4Q guidance from flat to 15-25% QoQ decline
Largan issued a sales outlook warning today and lowered its 4Q guidance from flat QoQ to 15-25% QoQ sales decline given weaker than expected order flow from top-tier handset branders. In our latest report 『More negatives to come』 on 24 November 2008, we highlighted that many Motorola projects are pending or have been postponed due to its recent supply chain reshuffle and platform restructuring. Nokia’s order flow also seems to be falling on its negative view of the global handset industry. As Nokia and Motorola contribute more than 60% of Largan’s lens business, we expect to see a significant ~40% MoM sales decline in November.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Largan Precision 3008 大立光 研究報告 – Merrill Lynch，另提供 Largan Precision 3008 大立光 研究報告 – Goldman Sachs、Largan Precision 3008 大立光 研究報告 – 麥格里 予各位一併參考
Mediatek (2454 ; 聯發科) - UBS Research
L ack near-term catalysts; Cut PT
Cut PT to NT$330 under decelerating momentum
We cut our price target for Mediatek (MTK) from NT$420 to NT$330 under weaker momentum in Q408. We now project MTK to show 21% QoQ decline in Q408, lower than the company’s guidance of down 9-16%. We expect improvement into Q109 will also be limited under slow season effect. Thus, we don’t expect the share price to perform strongly in the near-term.
Valuation: PT NT$330 based on 15x 09E PER
We cut our price target from NT$420 to NT$330 under more conservative EPS target. Also, we previously used 17x PER to set our price target as we expected MTK to show 15%+ YoY growth. However, given weaker business outlook now (<10% YoY), we revised down our price target to 15x PER. EPS revision: from NT$21.37/24.66/28.66 to NT$20.66/22.22/25.36.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Mediatek 2454 聯發科- UBS
12/28 新增
Mitac International (神達 ; 2315) – Merrill Lynch Research
Magellan to be acquired by Mitac
On 15 December 2008, Mitac announced it had signed an agreement with Magellan Navigation Inc. to acquire the latter’s consumer product division for US$96mn. The deal will give Mitac control over Magellan’s brand, software, intellectual property, management team, customers, and retail channels. The transaction is likely to be closed in January 2009, when detailed financial terms are likely to be disclosed.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Mitac 2315 神達 研究報告 – 美林
01/20 新增
Mediatek (2454 ; 聯發科) – Merrill Lynch Research
Results likely to be in line with expectations
Mediatek announced its December sales of NT$5.1bn (-17.5% MoM, -2.9% YoY), bringing its 4Q08 sales to NT$20.5bn (-27%QoQ, flat YoY). This is better than its lowered guidance of -30-33% QoQ and consensus. Despite higher risks of inventory write-off and financial asset loss, we believe its 4Q08 earnings would fall
in line with our estimate of NT$3.7bn (-49% QoQ). We raised our 2008-2010 estimates by 0.4-3%
欲閱讀全文者請按 Mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 – 美林 ，另一併提供 Mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 – MACQ、Mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 – 里昂、Mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 – 高盛 予各位參考
Mitac International (神達 ; 2315) – Merrill Lynch Research
Further downward revision
BS and CF may deteriorate; revisit at end-1Q09
We expect Mitac to suffer deteriorated BS and CF in several quarters, given our concerns over (1) Mitac using debt-financing for Magellan deal (US$96mn), which will exacerbate its BS risk, and (2) a muted 1Q09E that will likely lead to continued cash burn (since 2Q08). Mitac’s current valuation at 9.6x 2009E P/E seems too rich to us, therefore, we retain our Underperform rating and would consider revisiting at end-1Q09.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Mitac 2315 神達 研究報告 – 美林
02/11 新增
Mediatek (2454 ; 聯發科) - Citi Research
Buy: Our Best Play in Semi Trough for Least Operating Leverage
Top Buy while peers report losses — Although Mediatek is not immune to the global demand downturn, we reiterate our Buy/Low Risk rating and raise our target price to NT$305 from NT$270. Given that it has no fab to affect its gross margin when sales decline 8-16% qoq, as guided, MediaTek’s 1H09E profits could be among the best in the sector.
欲閱讀全文者請按 mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 ，另一併提供 mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 – 高盛、mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley、mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 – BNP、mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 – MACQ、 mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 – 德銀、mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 – 美林予各位參考
Powerchip Semiconductor Corp. (力晶 ; 5346) - Goldman Sachs Research
Neutral
Promos’ ECB resolution would be positive for PSC, but risks remain
What’s changed
Commercial Times reported that Promos (5387.TWO; Not Covered) is likely to be granted with NT$5bn in new credit facility from 9 consortium local banks to fulfill its ECB repayment due by Feb 14. Although we view this news as negative for the industry as marginal players remain, we see this as positive for Powerchip (PSC) since financing concerns are likely mitigated. We expect PSC to benefit from the recent rally in DRAM spot price. Although we see some trading momentum on recent positive news flow, such as reduced supply resulting from Qimonda’s Chapter 11 filing and DRAM price increase, we think chasing the stock on the
recent share price rally is still risky without fundamental sector recovery.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Powerchip 5346 力晶 研究報告 – 高盛
Largan Precision Co. Ltd. (大立光 ; 3008) – Goldman Sachs Research
1Q as weak as it gets, but pixel migration may resume gradually
What’s changed
Largan reported in-line Jan sales of NT$338 mn (-1% mom, -44% yoy). The continued muted sales momentum seems to indicate that the handset inventory correction may not become worse, but there are no signs of sustainable demand recovery either, in our view. The potential near-term rush orders, as we have widely seen in the NB and LCD segments, do not seem to be obvious in the handset segment (at least not widely seen in the top 5 handset OEM circles).
欲閱讀全文者請按 Largan Precision 3008 大立光 研究報告 – 高盛
—————06/23 2009——————–
Largan Precision Co. Ltd. (大立光 ; 3008) - Morgan Stanley Research
Supply Caution a Plus; Keep
OW with Catalysts in Sight
Investment conclusion: We reiterate our positive call on Largan as it is still at the early stage of its upgrade
cycle. We do not have good visibility for real demand beyond 1H09 but, based on the general cautious tone
from the supply chain into 3Q, we expect handset OEMs to stay conservative on sell-through beyond 2Q. A likely softer 3Q off a strong 2Q (40%+ QoQ) should bode well for a robust 4Q with lower risk of significant de-stocking. We think Largan should grow in line with the industry with an inflection point (resuming YoY sales growth) in 4Q09. An improving top line should translate into earnings acceleration YoY from 4Q09. Our earnings upgrade is to reflect better 2Q sales from a higher assembly mix even though we conservatively model near-term margin volatility in 3Q due to the product mix change and NT dollar strength.
欲閱讀全文者請按 3008 大立光 研究報告-MS，另提供 3008 大立光 研究報告-Nomura 、3008 大立光 研究報告-ML一併參考！
Mediatek (2454 ; 聯發科) - Deutsche Bank Research
Intensifying challenges in new product cycles
Lack of solid growth drivers in 2010
We retain Sell on structural challenges including: 1) global handset makers’ more aggressive pricing strategies in 3G handsets; 2) limited market share upside due to higher entry barriers in the 3G handset chip market, market share saturation in the 2/2.5/2.75G handset chip market, and a declining addressable 2/2.5/2.75G handset market; 3) low possibility of penetrating global top-tier handset makers due to low
margins; 4) low revenue portion of Blu-ray chips and LCD TV controllers in 2010.
欲閱讀全文者請按 2454聯發科研究報告-DB
