以下為本週外資研究報告中，提供美律 2439、華碩 2357、茂迪 6244、中美晶 5483、鴻準 2354、可成 2474、勝華 2384、台肥 1722等公司的研究報告，幫助各位建立產業與相關公司的基礎認知，切勿作為個人買賣依據或對外散播。
報告的更新方式….直接增列於本文最下方！
Merry Electronics (美律 2439) – Goldman Sachs Research
Trough valuation with upcoming trough growth cycle; keep Neutral
Valuation
We are revising our EPS estimates: 2008 up 6%, 2009-2010 down 9%-12%. We lower our DCF-based 12-month target price, based on reduced estimates, to NT$36 (from NT$50), implying 7.5X NTM EPS. We believe it will be difficult for Merry to have any strong catalysts drive the shares’ rerating in the near term.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Merry 2439 美律 研究報告 ，另提供 Merry 2439 美律 研究報告 – MS 予各位一併參考。
Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩 2357) – Merrill Lynch Research
Growth from NB/Eee PCs and emerging market
Prefer Acer/Compal over Asustek
We like Acer given its pure brand model, position at the low-end segment and stronger procurement power. Compal offers great value/strong BS. However, Asustek might stand out again when we see its innovations deliver or/and further progress in the spin off. PO of NT$68.0 is based upon our sum-of-parts valuation
— 11x core EPS (NT$58.0) plus 8x investment income (NT$10.0) for 2009.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Asus 2357 華碩 研究報告
Motech Industries Inc. (茂迪 6244) – Merrill Lynch Research
Difficult bottoming process expected
Credit crunch does not favor vertical integration
While Motech appears to have enough cash to carry out its vertical expansion plan, under the current situation of credit tightening investors may see it as a challenging time to migrate to such model long before the actual accretion is to be realized. Hence, we are reducing ’09E revenue by 5% and EPS by 13%. Despite the fact that the share price has fallen hard recently, Motech does not appears very attractive at 9x ‘09E while some of its US-listed peers are still hovering at a level of 4x ‘09E.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Motech 6244 茂迪 研究報告
Motech Industries Inc. (茂迪 6244) – Deutsche Bank Research
Attractive risk/reward; retain Buy
Maintain Buy; lower TP to NT$190
Our revised TP of NT$190 (from NT$250) is based on 14x US GAAP 2009E EPS, which is below the 20x during 2004-07. We believe this is merited by its 2009-10E earnings CAGR of 36%, which is below the 2004-07 CAGR of 77%. Downside risks include slower ramp-up in internal ingot/wafer and polysilicon capacity, NTD appreciation, and cancellation of incentives.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Motech 6244 茂迪 研究報告 – DB
Motech Industries Inc. (茂迪 6244) – Citi Investment Research
Sell: In-Line EBIT Margins in 3Q, but Faces Oversupply in 2009E
Revising estimates — We are revising our 2008E and 2009E EPS estimates to NT$10.9 and NT$13.5 respectively to reflect better 3Q results and margin contraction due to pricing pressure and oversupply in 2009E.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Motech 6244 茂迪 研究報告 – 花旗
Sino-American Silicon (中美晶 5483) – Macquarie Research
Slow growth ahead
Price catalyst
12-month price target: NT$71.00 based on a PER methodology.
Catalyst: Weak demand and polysilicon oversupply.
Action and recommendation
Given the current financial turmoil, management may need to put in more effort and resources into their diversified business strategy. In the long-term, we believe this may be good for the company. However, we are becoming more cautious on its growing non-solar business (30%+), which should drag down its valuations as pure solar names used to enjoy higher PER multiples compared to other sectors. Consequently, we cut our TP to NT$71 based on a 7x forward PER, at its trough valuations.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Sino-American Silicon 5483 中美晶 研究報告
Foxconn Technology Co. Ltd. (鴻準 2354) – Merrill Lynch Research
Too much pessimism; Buy
Prefer FTC over Hon Hai, FIH and Catcher
We prefer FTC over Hon Hai (HNHAF; TWD81.1; C-2-7) and FIH (FXCNF; HKD; C-2-9) (both Neutral rated) given its margin improvement from 2Q08, and over Catcher (CHERF; TWD85.2; C-3-8) (downgraded to Underperform) on its higher earnings growth on the back of Hon Hai group synergy and recent underperformance by 50% for the past three months. Our PO of NT$100 is based on 11x 09E, the very low end of its P/E range for the past five years.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Foxconn Tech 鴻準 研究報告
Catcher Technology Co. Ltd. (可成 2474) – Merrill Lynch Research
Recovery in the price ; Downgrade
Downgrading to Underperform with a PO of NT$80.0
We downgrade our rating on Catcher from Buy to Underperform with a PO of NT$80 (6% downside potential). We believe investors should lock in profits on upcoming 3Q results and October sales given the stock’s recent strong performance (up 25% from the trough and 50% of outperformance vs Taiex in 3M). We cut our 09E EPS by 14% to NT$8.0 on its share loss to FTC at Apple and limited margin improvement ahead.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Catcher 2474 可成 研究報告
Wintek (勝華 2384) – Macquarie Research
3Q08 results preview
3Q08 could see margins improving, allowing losses to narrow.
We believe the operating margin improved to -2.8% from -5.2% in 2Q08 thanks to the ramp-up of the touch panel business. This was better than our previous estimate of -9.2%. We believe Wintek is the only panel manufacturer worldwide to see 3Q08 margins improve sequentially. Sales reached NT$9.2bn (+24% QoQ, +15% YoY). We estimate a loss per share (LPS) of NT$0.36 (a net loss of NT$411m), better than an LPS of NT$0.39 in 2Q08.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Wintek 2384 勝華 研究報告
Taiwan Fertilizer Co Ltd (台肥 1722) – Morgan Stanley Research
3Q08 Earnings Could Disappoint Again
Quick Comment: We believe Taiwan Fertilizer’s (Taifer) 3Q08 results could surprise on the downside
again due to lower shipments at its Al Jubail JV. Taifer indicated that the bulk of 2-EH shipments was delayed until October, causing the sales to be booked in 4Q08 instead. As such, despite average urea, 2-EH, and DOP pricings are 33%, 3%, and 4% higher in 3Q08 than that of 2Q08, we estimate that Al Jubail JV’s earnings contribution could decline from 2Q08’s NT$1.3b to 3Q08’s NT$1.2b, missing market expectation of NT$1.5-1.6b. We expect the market to read this negatively as this is the second consecutive quarter that
Taifer has missed its earnings. With the earnings of Al Jubail JV failing to reflect the rising product pricings, we believe investors may start to apply a bigger discount to the stock’s NAV to incorporate higher execution risk and lower transparency. In view of the likely 3Q08 miss and investors’ growing concerns, we believe the stock needs more than just ‘undemanding valuation’ to perform again. We look for Taifer to trade in the range of NT$40-50 before new catalysts emerge. We hence retain an Equal-weight rating on the stock.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Fertilizer 1722 台肥 研究報告
10/31 新增 華碩 2357 研究報告
Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩 2357) – Macquarie Research
We think we have been late in downgrading our rating seeing the market’s recent freefall. However, there are still 17 buys on Bloomberg, which means the market may not be fully aware that pan-European demand is slowing rapidly and ASP/margin is declining. Valuation could be the only reason that we do not rate the stock an Underperform as both PER and P/BV are at historical lows. We expect Asustek’s share price to remain within the NT$40– 50 range in the coming quarters. We could revisit the stock when we see
evidence of growth recovery.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Asustek 華碩 2357 研究報告
11/15 新增華碩與茂迪的外資研究報告
Motech Industries Inc. (茂迪 6244) – Deutsche Bank Research
Grim picture ahead
We cut our EPS forecast by 4% for 2008, 31% for 2009, and 54% for 2010 to factor in demand slowdown led by tightening loan standards and more margin contraction. We see demand is slowing with the growing unwillingness to lend money for the solar installation. Moreover, we believe low entry barriers and
commoditized products will lead to sharp ASP/margin erosion when the solar industry is facing oversupply of polysilicon. We cut our TP from NT$190 to NT$94 and downgrade from Buy to Hold.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Mothech 6244 茂迪
Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩 2357) – Goldman Sachs Research
What’s changed
Best Buy (BBY, Neutral), the No. 1 US electronics chain, lowered its 2009 profit forecast on Nov 12, driven by weak consumer spending. This is another headwind following Circuit City (CC), the No. 2 US electronics chain, filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Nov 10. While we do not know what products caused the major shortfall for Best Buy as the company did not disclose the details, we have learned from the supply chain that both ASUSTeK’s own brand and ODM businesses are weakening on the back of demand deterioration. ASUSTeK has little exposure in CC but has recently increased exposure to BBY starting from late last year, though ASUSTeK’s overall exposure to the US remains small at roughly 10% of its total revenues in 3Q08. We have therefore revised down 2008/09/10 revenues by 0.6%/0.9%/0.4% and 2008/09/10 profits by 1.1%/7.5%/7.5% respectively.
欲閱讀全文者請按 ASUSTeK Computer 2357 華碩
11/27 新增
Catcher Technology Co. Ltd. (可成 2474) – JPMorgan Research
Relatively good outlook, but still hampered by macro headwinds; upgrade to Neutral
Upgrade to Neutral with PT of NT$54: We upgrade Catcher to Neutral from Underweight with a Jun-09 PT of NT$54 (1.0x FY09E book), due to better competitive landscape (in Catcher’s favor) in the notebook light metal space, cheap valuation, and better balance sheet metrics. Catcher should gain market share at the expense of Foxconn Tech in the notebook space, but all its key end markets (corporate notebooks, MP3 players, and high-end consumer notebooks) should see a meaningful decline in 2009. In addition, we feel Catcher should demonstrate more focus on the core biz rather than exploring new, unrelated product categories such as touch panels. We would turn more positive if light metal price reductions finally trigger adoption in consumer notebooks or if Apple significantly cuts prices on light-metalbased Macbooks. Key risk: continued heavy investment in new ventures.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Catcher Technology 2474 可成 研究報告 – JPMorgan，另提供 Catcher Technology 2474 可成 研究報告 – 麥格里 予各位一併參考。
Foxconn Technology Co. Ltd. (鴻準 2354) - Mqcquarie Research
80% of business at risk
We further lower our Foxconn Tech (FT) TP from NT$106 to NT$55 and maintain our Underperform rating. We believe FT will continue to suffer from deteriorating margins due to falling metal casing and thermal module demand. The stock is lacking positive catalysts and we think its valuation should further de-rate as 80% of its business is at risk, in our view.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Foxconn Technology 2354 鴻準 研究報告 – 麥格里
12/28 新增
Motech Industries Inc. (茂迪 6244) – Deutsche Bank Research
Synergies of vertical integration may deteriorate
Weakening fundamentals; TP down to NT$55 from NT$94
Our recent channel checks suggest a sharper upstream polysilicon ASP decline due to weaker end demand and intensified oversupply. This has led downstream players (including Motech) to cut prices more aggressively. This implies Motech may face more margin pressure as AE Polysilicon’s (over 10% stake owned by Motech) ramp-up in 2H09 may have less cost-reducing synergies for Motech. We cut our ESP forecasts by 27% for 2009 and 31% for 2010 and retain Hold.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Motech Industries 6244 茂迪 研究報告 – 德銀
Sino-American Silicon (中美晶 5483) – Deutsche Bank Research
Structural headwinds remain ; retain Hold
Estimate and TP cuts
We lower our EPS forecasts by 15% for 2009 and 32% for 2010 to reflect worsening solar end demand and rising margin pressure. Our surveys suggest that SAS may experience sharper ASP/margin erosion due to commoditized products, intensified pricing competition and further demand weakness. As the industry
should face more oversupply in 2009-10, SAS’ plans of vertical integration may have limited synergy. We reduce our TP from NT$70 to NT$53 and maintain Hold.
欲閱讀全文者請按 SAS Wafer 5483 中美晶 研究報告 – 德銀
01/20 新增
Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩 2357) - Goldman Sachs Research
“Crowding out” effect on MB may further dampen 2009 earnings
We think ASUSTeK has three potential risks in its brand business and one potential risk in ODM. The brand business may face: 1) high A/R, which could raise default risk; 2) high inventory, which may need another full quarter to digest; and 3) crowding-out effect on MB: inventory hikes in NBs and Eee PCs could start to hit MB demand, based on our channel checks. On the ODM side, our supply chain checks indicate ASUSTeK subsidiary Pegatron could lose market share to Hon Hai for HP’s 2009 DT order and Sony’s PS3 order. Based on these four issues, we lower our 1Q/2009/2010 profit forecasts by 90%/26%/5% to NT$0.3bn/NT$10bn/NT$15bn. ASUSTeK will hold a conf call on January 21 to update business outlook but will not report detailed 4Q08 results until Feb 12, when it will also hold an analyst meeting.
欲閱讀全文者請按 ASUS 2357 華碩 研究報告 – 高盛
Taiwan Fertilizer Co Ltd (台肥 1722) – Goldman Sachs Research
Slightly positive on urea, yet no strong earnings momentum; Sell
We believe the recent rebound in the share price was mainly triggered by positive market sentiment on the urea price as there is a high correlation (0.73 during the past 5 years) between the two. We note that the urea price has increased by around 14% to US$225/t during the past 3 weeks due to the Russian government cutting natural gas supply to Ukrainian producers, substantial production shutdowns in India because of strikes at several urea plants and 1Q generally being the peak season for fertilizer demand
欲閱讀全文者請按 1722 台肥 研究報告 – 高盛
02/10 新增
Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩 2357) - Merrill Lynch Research
Right direction but tough competition ahead
Alliance with Garmin for GPS smartphones
Asustek and Garmin today (4 Feb) announced a strategic alliance that will leverage expertise in phones and navigation to design, manufacture, and distribute co-branded location-centric smarthpones (Garmin-Asus nüvifone). The companies expect to introduce several models in 2009 and the first one will be announced in Mobile World Congress during February 16-19.
欲閱讀全文者請按 AUSU 2357 華碩 研究報告 – 美林，另提供 Asus 2357 華碩 研究報告 – 花旗、AUSU 2357 華碩 研究報告 – 高盛 予各位一併參考。
MacVisit Optical (熒茂 4729) - Macquarie Research
Background
Mildex Optical, a leading industrial touch panel and polycarbonate (PC) ophthalmic lens manufacturer in Taiwan, will list on the over-the-counter (OTC) market on 24 February 2009 at NT$13.0, a 46% discount to today’s close price in the grey market. We provide an update on its business.
Mildex makes window lens (60%+ of 2008E sales), touch panel (20–25%) and PC ophthalmic (optical) lens (15–20%). Window lens are used in handset and NB displays to protect LCD panels from scratches and to reduce glare. With window lens, handsets/NBs no longer require plastic bezels to frame the edges of
displays and hence look more stylish, like Apple’s iPhone.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Mildex optical 4729 熒茂 研究報告 – MACQ
06/23 2009 新增
Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩 2357) - Morgan Stanley Research
Recovering but Structural Issues Cap Growth
Investment conclusion: We stay UW on Asustek but are raising our PT to NT$38 (or 15x one-year forward
P/E) from NT$25 as we have increased our 2009-10E EPS and reduced our COE estimates to factor in lower
credit and political risks. We believe the company’s efforts to rectify mis-execution will lead to a breakeven
2Q. However, we are concerned that the company is still affected by several structural issues that could partially offset the benefits from the PC replacement cycle and cap an earnings recovery. These issues include: 1) the market size of its cash-cow consumer MB business (~30% of profits) should continue to shrink given accelerated NB replacement over DT in the consumer PC space; 2) Asustek will have to adjust its premium pricing strategy for the NB business to cater to the lowprice PC trend, which implies that its GM may not be able to return to previous highs, and 3) conflict of interest issues remain as it still holds 100% of Pegatron/Unihan.
欲閱讀全文者請按 2357 華碩 研究報告-MS
Motech Industries Inc. (茂迪 6244) – Credit Suisse Research
Positive sentiments not supported by fundamentals
At the AGM, Motech guided June sales to grow 50-100% from May and 3Q demand to pick up, while the magnitude remains uncertain.
● Recent strong share performance, in our view, has been driven by increased oil price and expected government subsidy programmes in various countries. However, we remain cautious on the global oversupply for solar PV in 2009 and believe ASP decline should continue.
● We cut FY09-10E earnings by 57.4% and 36.2% to reflect the continuously declining ASP and margins. Motech’s YTD solar cell shipment has been a disappointing 100 MWp, accounting for only 25% of the lower end of the company guided 400-500 MWp. Our new earnings forecast already assumes an aggressive 2H09
recovery.
● We maintain our NEUTRAL rating for Motech and derive our target price of NT$94 (was NT$81) from 1.6x mid-2010E BVPS (was 10x FY09E EPS), due to the expected volatile earnings in FY09-10E. Among the solar companies under our coverage, we still favour Motech to others due to its built scale and better longterm
competitiveness. However, we suggest profit-taking here as current valuation is not supported by fundamentals.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Motech_6244_茂迪_CS
