以下為雙D產業中南科、華亞科、奇美、友達、群創 、華映、彩晶等七家公司的研究報告，提供各位建立產業與相關公司的基礎認知，切勿作為個人買賣依據或對外散播。(新近報告以新增方式增加在後面)
Nanya Technology Corp. (南科 2408) – Morgan Stanley
Banks Own More Than Investors
Quick Comment – Conclusion: On ~70% liabilities/ assets ratio, 0.8x P/B, Nanya is ~75% owned by creditors and only 25% owned by investors (Formosa group ~50% shareholder). Timing is everything. It’s better for Nanya to transition from Qimonda’s vanishing trench technology to Micron’s stacked technology in a
DRAM downturn. Nanya will lose some fab capacity during transition in 4Q08/1Q09 (just like other DRAM
makers shut down some capacities for recess to reduce bleeding). In a DRAM downturn; less shipments will
lead to a smaller loss although variable cost will first increase initially until crossover in 2H09.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Nanya 2408 南科 研究報告
Nanya Technology Corp. (南科 2408) – Merrill Lynch
Challenging period ahead
Poor margins continue; lowering PO and EPS by 16-19%
We do not see any meaningful upside for Nanya Technology. Downbeat 3Q margins (operating loss of NT$6.0bn at -52% OPM vs MLe: -49%) and a cashcost- level DRAM spot price prompt us to revise down 2008 and 2009 EPS by 16% and 19%, respectively. As a result, we lower our price objective by 18% to
NT$4.1. We reiterate our Underperform rating.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Nanya 2408 南科 研究報告 – 美林
Inotera Memories, Inc. (華亞科 3474) – Morgan Stanley
The Survivor Pick
Quick Comment – Conclusion: On superior business model, Inotera is the only DRAM maker in Taiwan with
positive cash margin in downturn. Cash is king. Cost of capital is no longer cheap in Taiwan. But Taiwan still has a laborious talented human capital. Production cost difference is what attracts technology partners to Taiwan. As all DRAM makers are cutting wafers production to reduce cash loss; the best time for Inotera to transition from trench to stacked in a downturn. Capacity loss leads to less losses overall. We expect ~30% Y/Y bits growth for Inotera in 2009. Inotera should benefit from next DRAM upcycle in 2010 with good cost structure on more certain stacked technology roadmap.
欲閱讀全文者請按 3474 華亞科 研究報告
Inotera Memories, Inc. (華亞科 3474) – Merrill Lynch
Micron will likely not warrant upside
Micron deal presents risks, PO and EPS lowered 18-20%
We believe Micron’s 35.6% Inotera stake acquisition from Qimonda will not warrant stock upside or shareholder value creation. We worry about potential corporate governance risks and start-up costs to adopt new Micron technologies. Inotera’s 3Q loss appears higher than our estimate (net loss: NT$4.0 actual vs NT$3.0bn). The current DRAM spot price is about 10-20% lower than consensus or our forecast. Against this backdrop, we lower our price objective 18% to NT$6.5, and cut 2008-09E EPS by 18-20%. We reiterate our Underperform rating.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Inotera Memories Inc 3474 華亞科 研究報告
AU Optronics (友達 2409) – Citi Investment Research
Buy: Over 35% YoY Capex Cut in 2009E likely to Slow Supply
BUY into trough — AUO is now trading below the prior three cycles’ trailing trough P/BVs of 0.9x for 2001, 1.1x for 2003, and 1.6x for 2H04. We believe downside is limited and reiterate our Buy (1L) rating. However, we are slashing our target price to NT$40 from NT$66.5 as losses might last and widen for 2-3 quarters to drag the share price to 1x book.
欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告
AU Optronics (友達 2409) – Macquarie Research
3Q08 results preview
Price catalyst
12-month price target: NT$40.00 based on a Price to Book methodology.
Catalyst: The demand response to lower LCD TV Street prices will be a key factor for panel price stability and the direction of the TFT-LCD cycle.
Action and recommendation
We maintain an Outperform but lower our target price from NT$61 to NT$40 based on a 2009E P/BV of 1.1x. We believe the stock should trade above its book value on a 12-month view before a return to profitability in 2Q09 and 2H09. Our previous target price of NT$61 (ex-dividend) was based on 1.6x our preceding 2008E BV/sh estimate. Historically, the stock has traded at an average P/BV of 1.6x with a high of 3.5x and low of 0.6x.
We believe the losses and TFT-LCD downcycle in 2H08 should be mostly discounted. Since 1 August, when it became apparent that panel pricing would fall sharply to cash COGS, AUO has outperformed the TWSE index by 11%.
欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告 – MACQ
Chi Mei Opto (奇美 3009) – Citi Investment Research
Downgrade to Sell: Rising Company Specific Risks
Downgrade to Sell — Despite CMO already breaking below its prior trailing trough P/BV, we have decided to downgrade the name to Sell (3L) from Buy (1L) and cut our target price to NT$15 from NT$45.5 as we believe this company will bring larger downside risks to investors by carrying a higher gearing ratio, weaker FCF yield, and larger book value contraction.
欲閱讀全文者請按 CMO 3009 奇美 研究報告
10/31 新增 群創 3481、華映 2475、彩晶 6116 等三檔個股的外資研究報告
Innolux Display Corporation (群創 3481) – Merrill Lynch
Poor 3Q results, down to Underperform
Downgrade from BUY to Underperform, NT$22 PO
We downgrade Innolux from Buy to Underperform (currently 6 Buys, 4 Neutral and 1 Sell per Bberg) and reduce our PO to NT$22 on 0.7x 09E PBV (below its historical 0.9-5.5x PBV range). After very poor 3Q results, we expect deep losses in 4Q08/1H09, disproving the theory of its more “defensive” panel+assembly
business model and lead us to use PBV valuations, similar to other panel makers.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Innolux 群創 3481 研究報告 – 美林 ，另外提供 Innolux 群創 3481 研究報告 – 高盛 予各位一併參考
HannStar (彩晶 6116) – Macquarie Research
3Q08 net loss of NT$3.2bn
Action and recommendation
We maintain an Outperform rating, but lower our target price from NT$13.3 to NT$7.0 based on a 2009E P/BV of 0.7x. Our previous target price was based on 1.0x our preceding 2008 book value estimate. We lower our target multiple to reflect low demand visibility. HannStar should weather the current downturn
well because it has one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry, with a net cash position. Management believes the stock is undervalued and is currently undertaking the second share buyback of this year.
欲閱讀全文者請按 HannStar 6116 彩晶 研究報告 – MACQ ，另外提供 HannStar 6116 彩晶 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley 予各位一併參考
CPT (華映 2475) – Macquarie Research
3Q08 net loss of NT$6.1bn
Action and recommendation
We maintain an Outperform rating but lower our target price from NT$10.0 to NT$4.2 based on a 2009E P/BV of 0.6x. Our previous target price was based on 1.0x our preceding 2008 book value estimate. We lower our target multiple to reflect low demand visibility and concerns over CPT’s high debt gearing
and credit risk.
欲閱讀全文者請按 CPT 2475 華映 研究報告 – MACQ ，另外提供 CPT 2475 華映 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley 予各位一併參考
11/15 新增 友達、奇美、DRAM產業、TFT LCD產業 的外資研究報告
Chi Mei Opto (奇美 3009) – BNP Paribas Research
At the epicentre of all fears: REDUCE
3Q in-line record loss; it was just the beginning
CMO’s 3Q08 loss of TWD4.2b was in-line with our estimate. While the 3Q was just the start of CMO’s expected loss making multi-quarters, this loss was record-breaking. Its net debt/equity ratio rose to 74% (2Q: 56%), as CMO drew down additional TWD63b of debt ahead of the deadline for ‘last drawdown’ of the earlier signed syndicated loan.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Chi Mei Optoelectronics 3009 奇美
AU Optronics (友達 2409) – Citi Investment Research
Buy: Consensus Cut Might Accelerate Again Due to Weaker Oct
Mixed shift to PC panels from TV — AUO reported Oct. consolidated sales of NT$27.3bn, down 21% mom and 49% yoy, falling short of our estimates of 10- 15% mom decline in Oct. We believe the larger than expected fall is not driven by shipment (-9% mom in large panel and flattish on small panel) but by mix
shift to PC panel from TV, resulting in blended ASP decline of 15-17% mom for AUO vs. apple-to-apple price decline of 5-7% mom in Oct.
欲閱讀全文者請按 AU Optronics 2409 友達
Taiwan DRAM Sector (台灣DRAM產業) - Deutsche Bank Research
Committed to memory : Taiwan outlines DRAM plan
With repayments looming, MoEA sketches out DRAM rescue plans
The Taiwan government yesterday began to clarify the steps that may be taken to save struggling DRAM makers. In this report, we outline the forthcoming debt repayment schedules for the four companies under our coverage, and speculate on how this situation may evolve. Our DRAM thesis remains unchanged – that
over the coming year, increasing financial pressures will drive consolidation, but the industry’s oversupply is likely to abate somewhat.
Risk/reward profile appears positive
We value our DRAM universe based on historical mid cycle average multiples. Given the likelihood of bankruptcy protection in Taiwan, it appears that the worst case scenarios will be averted. We like Powerchip, Nanya Tech and Inotera. Downside risks to our thesis include further declines in consumer sentiment, an
unexpectedly sharp cut in IT budgets, and a greater-than-expected netbook share.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan DRAM Sector
Taiwan Taiwan TFT LCD Sector Sector (台灣面板產業) - Macquarie Research
Oct large panel sales down 27% MoM
The outlook from here has very limited visibility. The big swing factor is the response in LCD TV demand to lower prices during the November and December holiday season. 4Q is the busiest sell-through period and usually accounts for about 40% of total TV end-demand for the year. Average retail prices for LCD TVs should be cheaper by 20-45% compared with mid-2008 and 30-50% a year ago (Figure 6). The nature of the sell-through will set the tone for demand and pricing elasticity for 2009.
Panel prices should moderate their declines from here (Figure 7-10). Prices should fall by 10–15% QoQ in 4Q08, less than the fall of 12–26% in 3Q08. For November, we expect a decline of 5–10% MoM. Prices will not be finalised until the end of the month, as has been the case for the previous few months. Price declines are moderating as suppliers are producing near their cash COGS (Figure 2) and, consequently, are lowering utilisation rates.
Meanwhile, the industry has reduced supply and capex (Figures 3 and 4) for both 2008 and 2009. We estimate that large panel supply growth by area will be down to a new historical low of 15–20% in 2009, down from 25–30% in 2008. Capex in 2009 will be down by 34%, based on our survey.
Regionally, we have a Neutral view on the TFT-LCD sector due to weak demand related to macroeconomic issues. We are relatively more positive on Taiwanese TFT-LCD stocks because of lower valuations and better capex discipline. Our top pick is AUO, the bluechip leader in Taiwan.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD Sector
—————01/20新增—————-
Chi Mei Opto (奇美 3009) - Citi Paribas Research
Correction: Sell: Warning – Inventory Losses Might Be Expanded in 4Q08E
3Q in-line record loss; it was just the beginning
Reiterate Sell — We reiterate our Sell (3L) on CMO based on its higher gearing ratio on the balance sheet and large contraction in its book value amid the short-term negative outlook. In addition, we see likely one-off inventory losses following panel prices decline in 4Q08.
欲閱讀全文者請按 3009 CMO 奇美 研究報告 – 花旗
AU Optronics (友達 2409) - Macquarie Investment Research
Bad news is behind
We estimate a 4Q08 net loss of NT$24.6bn (loss per share (LPS) of NT$2.90). This is bigger than our previous estimate of NT$11.2bn. We believe AUO will write down inventory in 4Q08 amounting to about NT$10bn as the company prepares for the new regulation #10 taking effect from 1Q09. We estimate 4Q08 operating/EBITDA margin will fall to -40/-6% from +3/+22% in 3Q08 as the inventory write-downs will likely be taken in COGS. We believe these losses should already be discounted with forward-looking guidance and ASPs as key catalysts. While the losses from the inventory write-downs are significant, they will set a clean slate for 2009 and allow for a lower cost base.
欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告 – MACQ
Taiwan Taiwan TFT LCD Sector Sector (台灣面板產業) - Morgan Stanley Research
Consolidation to Defy Gravity
Investment conclusion: We prefer AUO over CMO this cycle. Since inception, AUO and CMO have made
comparable investments; but AUO generated ~2x of operating cashflow (~15% larger in paid in capital).
Scale matters; consolidation is inevitable. Hypothetical analysis: as a new industry leader, potential AUO/CMO merger could (1) differentiate in capital market to command valuation premium for better capital market access, (2) reduce costs by avoiding investment duplication, (3) result in changes to the business model. Samsung has Corning glass JV to share profits; LG Display has glass JV with NEG. A new Taiwan TFT
leader could request glass joint venture to ensure motherglass supply and capture foodchain profits and
avoid being the bargaining chips of Sony/Samsung’s internal buffered capacities.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley
—————02/25新增—————-
CPT (華映 2475) – Morgan Stanley Research
Analyst Meeting Takeaways
CPT is seeing some rush orders in monitor and TV panels benefiting from inventory re-stocking and China rural TV subsidies. For 1Q09, CPT guides for flat Q/Q shipments for large size panels and small size panels at 40-50% fab utilization. CPT sees monitor panel prices increasing M/M again in February (this reflects panel makers’ reluctance to produce below cash cost at trough utilization). CPT strives to minimize cash
outflow in 2009 at minimal capex. CPT will increase its 18.5”, 20”W and 21.6” monitor shipment mix in 1Q09 at the expense of notebooks on a notebook inventory correction (notebook panel prices will stay flat until inventory clears).
欲閱讀全文者請按 CPT 2475 華映 研究報告 – MS
Taiwan Taiwan TFT LCD Sector Sector (台灣面板產業) - Macquarie Research
Panel prices in February
Regionally, we have a neutral view on the TFT-LCD sector. Price rises are led by supply-side factors and may not hold beyond 1Q09 since end-demand is weak. We recommend taking profit into this rally. We would turn positive if the price rebound is sustainable and demand is clearly recovering.
We are more positive on Taiwanese panel makers, which have lower P/BV valuations. Our top picks remain AUO and InnoLux. In addition, tighter relationships with Chinese TV brands and a boost in demand from the rural subsidy should help AUO and CMO improve the strength of their customer base. This helps to narrow the advantages that Korean and Japanese panel makers have from supplying internally to their own affiliated brands.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD 研究報告 – MACQ
Taiwan DRAM Sector (台灣DRAM產業) - Morgan Stanley Research
Memory Module Industry
Over the cycle, well-managed memory module makers, such as Transcend, have outperformed pure memory fab operators, such as Powerchip and Nanya. Since 1999, Transcend has achieved average ROIC/ROE of 20%/23% versus negative figures for the Taiwan DRAM industry. Scale matters in the memory module industry. Amid DRAM/NAND shortages, larger module makers have better access to limited chip supply.
Amid oversupply, larger module companies have better pricing power and can react quicker to clear inventory.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan DRAM 研究報告 – MS
AU Optronics (友達 2409) – Merrill Lynch Research
Bottoming out, upgrade to BUY
The worst is over, upgrade to BUY – NT$30.2 PO (1x PBV)
We are upgrading AUO from Neutral to BUY (NT$30.2 PO, 1.0x 09E PBV) as we think the worst is behind the company. No V-shaped recovery, 09E LCD oversupply (BAS-ML 7%), big 09E losses (BAS-ML NT$38.6bn versus NT$27.6bn previously) and negative ROE are widely expected at this point, but at 0.8x 09E PBV, long-term risk/reward is turning favorable in our view as a) sharp supply-side cuts are under way, b) 1Q loss for AUO should not be worse than 4Q, and c) 2Q blended ASP likely to stabilize and losses to narrow in 2H09 as industry awaits demand catalyst return.
欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告 – 美林
