以下為本週外資研究報告中，關於水泥產業、太陽能產業的產業研究報告，另有台灣資產股族群的研究報告及個股的昱晶 3514、台泥 1101、國產 2514等研究報告。提供各位建立產業與相關公司的基礎認知，切勿作為個人買賣依據或對外散播。
Taiwan: Energy: Alternative Energy - Goldman Sachs Research
Macro concerns, solar module prices feel the heat; initiate on 2 cos
Downgrade E-Ton to Neutral, maintain Neutral on Motech, SAS We lower E-Ton (3452.TWO) to Neutral from Buy as its high leverage has become a cause for concern in the current credit environment. However, we
still like the company as it continues to differentiate itself by producing highefficiency cells. In our view, Motech’s (6244.TWO) gross margins have bottomed in 3Q as the percentage of cheaper long-term contracts increases. We expect margin expansion to continue in 2009E, but will be limited by the maximum percentage of long-term contracts, which we estimate at 50%.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Alternative Energy 太陽能產業報告
Taiwan Cement Sector - Citi Investment Research
Long-Term Value at End of Tunnel
Taiwan cement companies corrected sharply along with the derating of global peers and the selling from foreign investors. Despite the tough operating environment in the next few months, we still believe that their current share prices offer long-term investment value if looking at their P/B or EV/ton, and downside is limited. We urge investors not to overly focus on the weaker cement market, but also to consider lower coal costs and cheaper valuation. We maintain Buy on both names but cut target prices and earnings.
China to bottom in 1H09 — We began to see price declines in some regions in China into the typically strong 4Q mainly due to the slowing property market. We forecast the market will remain cold until 1H09, when the government’s new policies to support the property market start to take effect, and local
governments push for faster closure of outdated plants.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Cement Sector 水泥產業研究報告
Taiwan property sector - Macquarie Research
Potential inventory losses in 2009
We believe there could be potential inventory losses in 2009 after the stricter accounting method on inventory value assessment to start effective on 1 January 2009, according to the revised Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No 10.
While the change in accounting method will not influence our NAV as it has no major impact on cashflows, it will negatively influence the dividends as DPS is usually capped by accounting EPS. It will thus have some negative impact on share prices as some investors are attracted by the high dividend yield of developers. In addition, developers with a higher portion of land acquired after 2007 would be more vulnerable to property price decline.
We remain cautious on the Taiwan property sector, given the weak industry outlook amid global economic slowdown and higher financial risk in tightening liquidity.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan property Sector
Gintech (昱晶 3514)- Macquarie Research
Doing a good job
We admit Gintech is a high-risk, high-return stock. We believe its share upside outweighs its downside. We are cutting our target price to NT$210 from NT$288, as we lower our PER multiple to 8x from 11x to reflect in macro headwinds. Risk: Although we have put conservative assumptions on our estimate and global subsidy spending as a whole (only US$2.5-3bn), we still cannot rule out that the rising credit crisis may further inhibit global renewable energy demand.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Gintech 3514 昱晶 研究報告
Taiwan Cement (台泥 1101) - Goldman Sachs Research
Improving op income on higher ASP; reduce TP on lower EV/t, NAV
TCC announced 3Q08 results largely in line with our expectations, with sales down 2% qoq to NT$6.2bn, GP up 50% qoq to NT$547mn, OP increased 131% qoq to NT$251mn, and NI declined 51% qoq to NT$1.1bn. 1Q08-3Q08 NI represented 70% of our 08E NI estimate. We attribute the higher GP and OP to higher ASP in 3Q08, while sales volumes declined during the period. Meanwhile, we believe the significant qoq drop in NI was mainly due to the lack of a sizeable disposal gain, as was incurred in 2Q08.
We lower our EV/t assumption we use to value the core business to US$45/t from US$60/t to reflect the trough cycle valuation and cut our 09E NAV per share to NT$24.7 from NT$31.6. We also widen our discount to NAV to 25% from 20% to reflect rising investor concern over the volatility of its non-listed equity investment. As a result, we reduce our 12-m SOTPbased TP to NT$18.5 from NT$25.0. While the historical trough P/B is 0.3x, we do not think TCC will trade at such a discount given the cement market
consolidation over the past few years and stable earnings contribution from its key subsidiary, Hoping Power (Private).
欲閱讀全文者請按 1101 台泥 研究報告
Goldsun Development and Construction (國產 2504) - Goldman Sachs Research
Improving 3Q08 results given higher ASP and investment income
Goldsun just announced its 3Q08 detailed results, with sales of NT$2.9bn, down 2% qoq; gross profit of NT$259mn, up 15% qoq; operating profit of NT$126mn, up 45% qoq; and net earnings of NT$357mn, up 72%. 1Q08- 3Q08 net earnings of NT$767mn has reached 77% of our 2008E net earnings estimate. We attribute the improving 3Q08 results to higher ASP and investment income in 3Q08.
We lower our EV/t assumption we use to derive core business value to US$45/t from US$60/t to reflect the trough cycle valuation and lower our 09E NAV per share estimates to NT$9.4 from NT$11.9. We widen our
discount to NAV to 25% from 20%, given rising investor concerns over volatility of non-listed equity investment values. As such, we cut our 12-m SOTP-based TP to NT$7.0 from NT$9.5. We maintain our Neutral rating.
欲閱讀全文者請按 2504 國產 研究報告
11/15 新增太陽能產業與水泥產業的外資研究報告如下
Taiwan Solar View - Citi Investment Research
Cautious on Demand Growth and Falling Prices
Key takeaways — We recently visited several solar names in Taiwan – Gintech (昱晶 3514), Motech (茂迪 6244), Solartech, Green Energy(綠能 3519) – and overall the theme has been on concerns over: 1) weaker bookings by customers, and lower ASP due to USD/EUR movement; 2) difficulty in fundraising for capacity expansion; 3) using longer-term contract to secure Poly-Si supply and long-term downstream contracts; and 4) larger players pursuing vertical integration to save costs.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Solar Sector
Taiwan Cement Sector - Merrill Lynch Research
Better ST sentiment; retain LT negative view
POs up on better China operation; Underperform retained
We raise our POs on Asia Cement (ACC; B-3-8; NT$23.60) and Taiwan Cement (TCC; B-3-8; NT$20.05) to NT$19.1 and NT$17.9, mainly to reflect better operations in China due to China’s NT$4tn domestic stimulus project. We expect the market to react positively to this news in the short term. ACC will benefit more than TCC in our view, as ACC has a good location in Sichuan province while TCC’s major focus, Guangdong province, continues to suffer from oversupply. We retain our LT Underperform ratings given the weak export market and sluggish domestic demand hindered by gloomy property market conditions.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Cement Sector - 美林，另提供法國巴黎證券的台灣水泥產業研究報告予各位一併參考，欲閱讀者請按 Taiwan Cement Industry-BNP。
11/27新增
Solar Technology (太陽能產業研究報告)- NOMURA Research
Not safe to look up yet
The sharp global slowdown has suddenly obscured the outlook for the solar technology sector. With demand in Europe (77% of FY08F solar demand) expected to contract severely, we expect to see reductions in solar module ASPs of 19% q-q in 4Q08 and 13% q-q in 1Q09. Inventory will pile up and drag utilisation to a bottom in 1Q09. Pricing will remain under pressure, in our view, as the poly-silicon market looks set to tip into oversupply in 1H09. But this will begin the transition that will allow the industry’s long-term growth prospects to shine through again. We look for PV module ASP to halve from 3Q08 to 4Q10, at which point solar power will hit grid parity in select locations, stimulate price-elastic demand and attract a new class of marginal buyer — the utilities. Meanwhile, falling industry margins in FY09 will push solar companies to
increase cell efficiency to lower cost, allowing silicon usage per watt to fall by 20.5% between 3Q08 and 4Q10. However, for the next 12 months, it is almost a total eclipse of earnings growth for the sector. Suntech is our only BUY as superior cell efficiency gains should support earnings growth of 14.2% y-y in FY09 and 68.7% y-y in FY10.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Solar sector 太陽能產業 研究報告 - NOMURA