Strong Growth in Sept in Sight, But Limited Visibility for 4Q
Aug. NB shipments disappoint — Top-5 NB ODMs’ Aug. shipments came in lower than market’s expectations with 6% MoM decline as some shipments were pushed out to Sept and 4Q. Among the top-5, Inventec outperformed with Aug. shipments up 17% MoM, while Compal and Wistron Aug. shipments down
15% MoM. Quanta’s Aug shipments dropped by a milder 6% MoM thanks to rising shipments of Acer’s Aspire One.
Quanta’s monthly revenue YoY drop triggered false alarm — We think market over-reacted to Quanta’s single month revenue YoY decline. Quanta’s Aug 07 revenue rose by 22% MoM due to strong NB and iPod shipments to Apple. However, as Apple delayed launch schedule of new NB models in 08, we may need to wait until Sept to see Quanta resume revenue momentum.
Strong momentum in Sept with an estimated 22% MoM growth— We believe supply constraint on IMR plastic casings remains a swing factor for 3Q/4Q shipments. We note that end demand shifts toward low-priced NB/Netbook while shipments of high priced models are slow. If we exclude shipments of Netbook, we see 3Q conventional NB shipments growing by 14% QoQ, vs. 20- 36% QoQ growth in the past 5 years.
Netbook and low priced NBs likely the main growth drivers for 4Q — We estimate 4Q NB shipments from the top-5 NB ODMs could grow by 15% QoQ while Netbook could account for 11% of 4Q total shipments. If we exclude Netbook shipments, 4Q conventional NB shipments could grow by only 11% QoQ, vs. 13-25% QoQ growth in the past 5 years. In EMEA markets, enddemand for NB began to improve slightly from mid August. However, we have yet to see signs of a strong recovery from China. We may need to wait until early Oct. for a clearer 4Q outlook for Taiwan NB ODMs.
No positive signs for motherboard demand — MB makers generally expect 0- 10% MoM growth in Sept. and have indicated that demand from the clone market remains weak with pricing pressure in mid to low end segments.
Our top pick: Acer — Due to limited visibility on end-demand, share prices of Taiwan NB ODMs could be weak near term despite valuations that look appealing after recent sharp price corrections. Among the NB names, we most prefer Acer given cost synergies, continuous market share gains, promising growth from Aspire One, and potential for op. margin expansion.
這是花旗在9/11/2008所出具的研究報告摘要！
台灣的電子工業發展至今，能夠擁有品牌的公司屬於少數中的少數，上從晶圓代工，下至NB組裝，絕大多數都無法擁有品牌！以NB產業來說，台灣廠商的全球市佔率超越了八成，但是….能有品牌的也只有宏碁Acer與華碩Asus這二家而已。
品牌屬於構築進入障礙的重要環節，擁有品牌就擁有進入障礙，也擁有較高的毛利率，而當大環境不佳時，毛利率較高的公司才有較大的生存空間。花旗會在 NB Food Chain 中首選宏碁，主要是著眼以下三點：
1. 宏碁與華碩在後奧運時期，確實搶佔了大陸市場不少佔有率，連大陸本土品牌聯想的市佔率也被他們二家侵蝕了。
2. 宏碁擁有全球品牌的知名度
3. 宏碁的企業反應速度極快
以 Low Priced NBs 而言，原本宏碁是不看好華碩的Eee PC，但是Eee PC一推出後全球熱賣，宏碁趕緊搶推Aspire One (其實早就做好準備工作了)，今年Eee PC的預估銷售量為600～650萬台，Aspire One雖然推出時程落後Eee PC，但是今年的預估銷售量仍高達500萬台。
雖然Eee PC推出之際，王振堂發表看衰言論，但是講歸講、做歸做，情境上Eee PC有二種，一是熱賣、二是市場反應冷淡，宏碁預估是後者，但是仍準備好熱賣時的應對策略，這就是事前的規劃完整與事後的反應速度，商場上的競爭力不就是如此而已嗎？
2008年宏碁除了要重返美國市場外，還要大筆進軍中國市場，它在這二個市場的成效如何，倒是頗值得期待，至少我對王振堂用人的眼光與蔣凡可．蘭奇經營管理的能力，還頗有信心的。
