以下為本週外資研究報告中，關於台積電 2330、新普 6121、元太 8069、南電 8046、台塑化 6505與台塑集團等個股、正文 4906、力成 6239、華寶 8078等公司研究報告。提供各位建立產業與相關公司的基礎認知，切勿作為個人買賣依據或對外散播。(更新方式…新增在文章後面)
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC 台積電 2330) - Merrill Lynch Research
Still no signs of stabilization
Order cuts continue with falling demand
We have lowered our 2009E EPS, fair value estimate, and PO for TSMC. Wafer order cuts from customers which started in July have yet to stabilize. Our recent supply chain indicators and checks indicate wafer fab production utilization to drop to mid-50s which is approaching its 2001 trough of 40.1%. Management is
doing its best to slow the tide of cancellations but is showing limited success.
Lower 2009E EPS from NT$2.60 to NT$1.96
We have lowered our 2009E EPS by 25% from NT$2.60 (NT$0.391) to NT$1.96 ($0.298/ADR). Our base case 2009E EPS assumes a revenue decline of 22% YoY, average capacity utilization of 70%, GPM of 31%, and to reduce operating costs by 21% YoY. Our recent industry analysis of capacity, logic IC inventory, and demand continues to suggest the sector is unlikely to stabilize until 1Q09.
Deep cycles are back – lowering PO to NT$40.5
Our PO is reduced from NT$45.0 to NT$40.5 which is based on 20.6x target PE and is supported by our long-term fair value model. We have lowered our midcycle fair value from NT$70 to NT$60. The bulk of the revision comes from the sharp down-cyclical impact of 2009 and to a lesser extent from adjustment to our
long-term growth assumption (from 10.5% to 9%).
欲閱讀全文者請按 TSMC 2330 台積電
Simplo Technology Co Ltd. (新普 6121) - Merrill Lynch Research
Solid fundamentals; top pick in NB component sector
We have raised Simplo’s 2008E EPS by 7% post its better 3Q results. However, we have reduced its 2009E EPS by 5% to factor in slower NB industry growth, and also cut the PO to NT$131 (based on 11x 09E P/E). Simplo remains our top pick in the NB component space, given its compelling P/E of 8x, consistent earnings delivery and solid balance sheet (zero debt, high net cash position).
欲閱讀全文者請按 Simplo Technology 6121 新普
Nanya PCB (南電 8046) - Goldman Sachs Research
Source of opportunity
We downgrade Nanya PCB to Sell from Neutral for the following reasons: (1) the absence of NGK Spark Plug’s restructuring plans implies no upside for incremental CPU flip chip (FC) outsourcing to Nanya; (2) upon Intel’s 2ndgen. Nehalem platform launch, we expect Nanya’s Northbridge FC revenue to drain away and CPU FC business be capped by NGK; (3) Nanya PCB has been continuously loaning money to Nanya Tech, its DRAM affiliate in the group – the current balance of NT$4.9bn is 14% of Nanya PCB’s 3Q08 BV. Our new 12m target price of NT$58 is based on 7X next-12m P/E, implying 1X 2008E P/B.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Nanya PCB 8046 南電
Prime View (元太 8069) - Macquarie Research
Not out of the woods yet
Action and recommendation
Valuations look expensive relative to peers. PVI is still trading at 1.2x 2009E P/BV, while all other TFT-LCD panel stocks are below book. With PVI posting losses too, the stock may fall below its previous historical low of 0.9x in 4Q05.
PVI’s net debt/equity is the only one among TFT-LCD panel stocks currently to be over 100%. PVI has a NT$6bn bridge loan used to finance the acquisition of the Korean fabs. To lower gearing, PVI announced in May that it planned to do a rights issue. However, the plan has been pending due to a weak stock market.
Management said at the meeting today that the plan should be finished within six months to pay back the bridge loan. Consequently, further dilution is inevitable and may overhang the stock, in our view.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Prime View 8069 元太
Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (台塑化 6505) - Goldman Sachs Research
Margin deterioration may lead to substantial net loss in 4Q08
What’s changed
Followed by the 27% mom decline in WTI oil prices in October, there were 25%-43% mom declines for various oil product prices in October. However, as the crude oil inventory cost for FPCC is based on two-thirds of the cost in the previous month and one-third of the cost in the current month, we believe this should lead to a significant net loss for FPCC in October, and expect the losses to continue into November and December if the oil price continues to fall. We remain cautious on the stock.
欲閱讀全文者請按 FPCC 6505 台塑化，另提供 Formosa Petrochemical 6505 台塑化 – MACQ 予各位一併參考。
Chemical Catalysts - Citi Investment Research
When China Sneezes
How bad is demand? — Consider: 1) Formosa Group saw inventory days rise to 15-25 QoQ in 3Q08; 2) crackers have high naphtha stock crushing spot cargo demand (naphtha spread plunged to –US$25/bbl); 3) Asian producers cut utilisation (20-50%); 4) 3Q08 China PE/PP consumption rose 2% (-1% YTD) and PVC fell 9% (-2% YTD) and domestic plastics output fell 6-22% MoM in Sept; 5) PRC finished product export growth slowing (textile, 4%, toys: 7%).
欲閱讀全文者請按 Chemical Catalysts
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11/27 新增
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC 台積電 2330) - BNP Investment Research
No sign of bottoming-out yet
20% y-y decrease in our 2009 TSMC revenue estimates
We expect the foundry industry (TSMC same) will underperform the semiconductor industry. Our 2009 revenue forecast for TSMC is a 20% y-y decrease. Our 2009 EPS forecast for TSMC is TWD2.37 (down from
TWD3.99), indicating a decline of 40.5% y-y, reflected by a lower utilization rate. We believe TSMC’s share price is negatively impacted by weak 1H09 market sentiment in the near term.
欲閱讀全文者請按 TSMC 2330 台積電 研究報告 – BNP
Nanya PCB (南電 8046) - NOMURA Investment Research
CPU inventory woes to hit 1H09F margins — a repeat of 1H07?
NGK Spark Plug (NYPCB’s partner in Japan) has suffered a dramatic depletion of its competitiveness in the flip-chip (FC) industry. NGK posted a record quarterly operating loss of ¥5bn for 3Q08, citing low
yields at its new FC plant. At its analyst briefing (13 November), NGK had been expected to outline turnaround plans. We were hoping for a restructuring initiative involving more outsourcing to NYPCB, but now this looks unlikely. NGK said it planned to negotiate higher prices with its CPU customers in a bid to narrow losses. In such an environment, rising prices inevitably spell loss of market share. Moreover, in a bid to improve in-house yields, NGK could reel in orders to its internal plants, and away from NYPCB. On our estimates, NGK accounts for 14% of NYPCB’s FY08F sales, and this business is at risk of declining.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Nan Ya PCB 8046 南電 研究報告 – NOMURA
Gemtek (4906 正文) - Macquarie Investment Research
Mixed outlook ahead
Gemtek hosted its regular semi-annual analyst meeting Tuesday afternoon, providing a business update and forward-looking guidance. From the company’s comments, we learned that the retail demand for Wi-Fi devices is dropping faster than our prior expectation. We have therefore trimmed our earnings forecasts.
However, we believe IP set-top box (STB) and WiMAX product lines will continue their secular growth in 2009, keeping Gemtek resilient throughout the economic downturn. We reaffirm our Outperform rating.
Following the earnings cut, we are trimming our TP from NT$70 to NT$46.5 (10x 2009E EPS). We maintain our Outperform rating. Despite slowing momentum, with the right products and right clientele (tier-one networking OEMs), we believe Gemtek is in a better position to grow in 2009 compared with other local networking peers.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Gemtek 4906 正文 研究報告 – 麥格里 ，另一併提供 Gemtek 4906 正文 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley 予各位參考
Powertech Technology Inc (力成 6239) - JPMorgan Investment Research
DRAM market deterioration should hurt utilization in 1H09; cut to Neutral
Cut to Neutral, PT of NT$39: We downgrade Powertech to Neutral with a Jun-09 PT of NT$39 (1.2x FY09 book). We expect DRAM utilization to drop sharply in 1H09 as DRAM bit output contracts due to production cuts. We are also concerned about high exposure to Kingston recently and lengthening AR days due to support to ailing DRAM customers. Key risk is a quick recovery in DRAM demand, which does not look likely in 2009.
Strong growth in NAND Flash not enough to save 2009: Powertech should see strong growth in NAND Flash assembly from Toshiba, once Toshiba takes control of its Sandisk JV. However, Flash exposure is only
15% currently small and is not enough to offset decline in DRAM.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Powertech 6239 力成 研究報告 – JPMorgan
12/28 新增
Gemtek (4906 正文) - Morgan Stanley Investment Research
Annual Analyst Meeting
Takeaway – Not Pessimistic
We attended Gemtek’s annual analyst meeting today. Our investment thesis on Gemtek remains intact for its ongoing diversification into telco segment (40%~50%) that enables it to offset retail space slowdown in 2009E. (Refer to our update dated Nov. 20, 2008 “Better Positioning Amid the Downturn”.) While near-term share price volatility is likely to remain high, along with the macro turmoil, we continue to rank Gemtek as our preferred name in Taiwan networking space. We believe Gemtek will weather the downturn on better positioning and healthy balance sheet plus, its wireless broadband integrated product offerings should allow Gemtek to catch the upcoming triple play trend in long run. Current valuations of 7/8x of ‘08/09E or 1x P/B for ‘09E. We retain our OW rating.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Gemtek 正文 4906 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley
Formosa Plastics (台塑 1301) - Goldman Sachs Research
Recent rebound in product prices seems to be only temporary
What’s changed
We note that the market has turned more positive on FPC’s December sales due to the 5% price rebound in PVC in the past two weeks as well as FPC’s recent sales volume increase in PE. However, we think that the price and sales volume increases are only limited to these specific products and are due to short-term inventory re-stocking, and do not represent a recovery in end demand. Therefore, we think the price and sales volume increases are temporary only. Our channel checks also indicate that most chemical companies and their end customers are trying to lower inventory before the Chinese New Year..
欲閱讀全文者請按 Formosa Plastics 1301 台塑 研究報告 – 高盛
Compal Communications (華寶 8078) - Goldman Sachs Research
One of the few bright spots within handset sector; maintain Buy
What’s changed
Despite low order visibility and earnings uncertainty across the handset supply chain, our industry checks continue to indicate a positive trend for Compal Comm’s (CCI) improvement in customer diversification and
product offering expansion over the next 12 months.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Compal Communications 8078 華寶 研究報告 – 高盛
Foundry - Morgan Stanley Research
The Foundry Floorplan – December 2008: Not Such a Happy New Yea
Conclusion: As we close in upon year-end, the sounds of the holidays are dulled while the specter of demand flits through the cold foundry halls. Things continue to get worse, and in this month’s Foundry Floorplan, we once again revise our foundry assumptions for 4Q08 and 2009, taking into account foundry guidance cuts and continued macro deterioration.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Foundry 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley
—————–01/20 新增——————-
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC 台積電 2330) - BNP Investment Research
4Q08 Result Preview
Maintain HOLD; TP at TWD42
We maintain our HOLD rating on TSMC as we do not have a clear visibility into its client orders (after February). Our 1Q09 utilization rate forecast for TSMC is 38% for 1Q09, which is the lowest in its history.
On the other hand, TSMC’s valuation is also not too attractive. Our TP on TSMC is TWD42, based on a 1.8x P/BV.
欲閱讀全文者請按 TSMC 2330 台積電 研究報告 – BNP ，另一併提供 TSMC 2330 台積電 研究報告 – MACQ 與 TSMC 2330 台積電 研究報告 – 德銀 予各位參考
Nanya PCB (南電 8046) - MACQ Investment Research
Looking for a better valuation
We do not believe NYPCB will be immune to the deteriorating FC demand and continuous pricing pressure from major customers. Despite the resulting earnings erosion, we believe NYPCB should survive the downturn. Also, we believe it is positioned to expand market share once FC demand improves with Intel’s new platform launches. Compared with its regional peers, NYPCB is trading at a discount, with higher earnings quality and attractive dividend yields (9–14%). Our TP of NT$61.2 (previously NT$100) is derived from its trough valuation of 9x 2009E PER.
欲閱讀全文者請按 8046 南電 研究報告 – MACQ
Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (台塑化 6505) - Macquarie Research
Margin deterioration may lead to substantial net loss in 4Q08
What’s changed
Followed by the 27% mom decline in WTI oil prices in October, there were 25%-43% mom declines for various oil product prices in October. However, as the crude oil inventory cost for FPCC is based on two-thirds of the cost in the previous month and one-third of the cost in the current month, we believe this should lead to a significant net loss for FPCC in October, and expect the losses to continue into November and December if the oil price continues to fall. We remain cautious on the stock.
欲閱讀全文者請按 6505 台塑化 研究報告 – MACQ
Formosa Group (台塑集團) - Merrill Lynch Research
Formosa 4Q08 preview : Reiterate Underperform
Record 4Q losses likely at Formosa; 20% risk to 2009E
All four Formosa affiliates are expected to post net losses in 4Q08 (Table 1), due to the top-line collapse from buyers’ inventory destocking and inventory losses from oil price declines. There could be about 20% downside risk to our estimates and the market consensus, which have been cut 30-40% since late November. If 2009 margins stay on track with our estimate, with the low base set in 2008, we expect around a 20% downside risk to our 2009 estimates.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Formosa Group 台塑集團 研究報告 – 美林
2009 02 25 新增
Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (台塑化 6505) - J.P. Morgan Research
Reduce holdings ahead of new Ethylene capacity
Still too expensive on a regional basis: FPCC is currently trading at 2.3x BV, or at a significant premium to its Asian petrochem and refining peers. With 3m tons of new Ethylene capacity coming on-stream in the
next two months from the Middle East and China, we foresee further pressure on Ethylene spreads in 2Q09 after the recent rebound in 1Q. We advise investors to reduce holdings ahead of the new capacity.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Formosa Petrochemical 6505 台塑化 研究報告 – JPMorgan
Nanya PCB (南電 8046) - Goldman Sachs Investment Research
Likely bottom in 1Q; outlook shadowed by key swing factors
Nanya PCB reported dismal Jan-09 sales result at NT$967mn (down 49% mom and 74% yoy), representing only 16% of our original 1Q09 revenue estimate. On the other hand, Nanya PCB’s alliance partner NGK Spark Plug recently has cut its guidance and suggested that its flip chip (FC) line may see widened operating loss to ¥8 bn for the Mar-09 quarter.
欲閱讀全文者請按 8046 南電 研究報告 – 高盛
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC 台積電 2330) - Citi Research
Buy: Likely to Beat Over-cut Guidance; We See Earlier Breakeven
Dips enhance buying opportunity — As we believe the foundry-cycle trough will pass soon and TSMC seems to have over-cut its trough-quarter guidance, we reiterate our Buy (1L) rating and target of NT$55. TSMC, along with MediaTek, SEC and SPIL, are top picks in our Asia Pac Semi and TFT-LCD portfolio.
Rush orders benefiting 1Q09 and should fast-forward breakeven — Benefiting from comm and LCD IC customers’ rush orders, coupled with a more favorable FX rate, TSMC may beat its over-cut trough-cycle guidance by posting a 40- 45% qoq sales decline (vs. guidance of a 46-50% qoq decline) and op margin
of -10% to -15% (vs. guidance of -15% to -19% and gross margin of 5-9%, vs. earlier guidance of 1-5%). This might help TSMC return to breakeven 1-2 months earlier than previously expected by us as well as consensus.
欲閱讀全文者請按 TSMC 2330 台積電 研究報告 – 花旗
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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC 台積電 2330) - Citi Research
Management Reshuffle
Quick Comment – Morris Chang back as CEO.
TSMC announced today that Morris Chang, founder and Chairman of the company, would resume the CEO
position and take a more active role in the company. Current CEO Rick Tsai will serve as President of the
New Business Development Organization, with a focus on green energy. Some of the details given at the press conference:
欲閱讀全文者請按 2330 台積電 研究報告-MS
