以下為本週外資研究報告中，關於台聚 1304、台苯 1310、 東聯 1710、福懋 1434、台橡 2103、裕民2606、汽車產業等研究報告。提供各位建立產業與相關公司的基礎認知，切勿作為個人買賣依據或對外散播。
研究報告更新的方式是直接將更新內容附加在本頁最下方，請隨時留意是否有外資更新內容的狀況。
USI (台聚 1304) - Macquarie Research
Bracing for a difficult FY09
We reduce our target price for polyethylene (PE) producer USI to NT$7 from NT$12 after reducing our valuation of its long-term investment portfolio and reducing our earnings outlook. We believe the demand outlook has worsened. In combination with this, we believe new Middle East PE capacity next year will be a significant challenge for USI. We maintain our Underperform rating.
We maintain our Underperform rating for USI. Although its P/BV multiple has declined to 0.6x for FY08E, this is still above its 2001 trough level of 0.4x. We believe the pressures in this downturn will be greater than in 2001 and look for further downward pressure on the share price.
欲閱讀全文者請按 USI 1304 台聚 研究報告 - 麥格里
Taiwan Styrene Monomer (台苯 1310) - Macquarie Research
Very difficult outlook
We reduce our Taiwan SM target price to NT$5 from NT$11 after reducing our earnings outlook and reducing our valuation of its long-term investment portfolio. We believe the outlook for the company has deteriorated and that a decline in the global economy will place further pressure on the company and the share price. We now look for Taiwan SM to post losses in FY08–10E, rather than just in FY09E, which was our previous projection. We maintain our Underperform rating on the stock.
We maintain our Underperform rating on Taiwan SM. The stock’s P/BV trough prior to late 2007 was 0.9x in 2001, but we believe the 2009–10 period will be more challenging than 2001 and the company’s longer-term prospects have deteriorated since then in light of a shift in the industry toward larger and more integrated complexes. At our target price the stock would be at 0.5x P/BV.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Styrene Monomer 1310 台苯 研究報告 - 麥格里
Formosa Taffeta (福懋 1434) - Macquarie Research
Weighed down by investments
We reduce our target price for Formosa Taffeta to NT$15 from NT$20, primarily due to lower market values and target prices for its listed investments. We’ve also reduced our EBIT outlook, as we see a morechallenging outlook for the textile and tyre segments into which it sells. We maintain our Underperform rating.
We retain our Underperform rating for Formosa Taffeta. We believe a decline in the share price of FPCC will place further downward pressure on its share price. We also look for declining conditions ahead for its fabric and nylon tyre cord operations.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Formosa Taffeta 1434 福懋 研究報告 - 麥格里
Oriental Union Chemical (東聯 1710) - Macquarie Research
Weak demand facing new capacity
We reduce our Oriental Union Chemical (OUCC) target price to NT$11 from NT$16 after cutting our EBIT projections. We believe the demand outlook is more challenging than we had previously projected. Amid a very weak demand environment, we expect added stress to be supplied by rapidlyapproaching new ethylene glycol (EG) capacity the Middle East. We look for the combination to produce a substantial decline in OUCC’s earnings. We maintain our Underperform rating.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Oriental Union Chemical 1710 東聯 研究報告 - 麥格里
TSRC (台橡 2103) - Macquarie Research
A hard road ahead
We reduce our target price for synthetic rubber producer TSRC to NT$18 from NT$31 after significantly reducing our FY09 and FY10 EPS outlook and increasing the downcycle discount to sum-of-the-parts-based target price to 20% from 10%. We believe the challenges ahead for raw material suppliers to the global tyre industry have increased. We maintain our Underperform rating for TSRC.
欲閱讀全文者請按 TSRC 2103 台橡 研究報告 - 麥格里
Taiwan Autos Sector (台灣汽車產業研究報告) - Merrill Lynch Research
Government’s new policy is of limited help, in our view
Still negative on Taiwan auto industry
We maintain our negative view on Taiwan’s auto industry and reiterate our Underperform ratings on Hotai Motor and China Motor for two reasons: (1) the government’s proposed policy to save the industry appears to be of limited help, and (2) domestic vehicle demand remains fragile with no signs of recovery. We lower our PO on Hotai Motor to NT$54.5, from NT$68, due to a 14% earnings cut and reduced P/E multiple from 13x 2009E EPS to 12x 2009E EPS, which is the historical trading average. We also cut our PO on China Motor to NT$11.3, from NT$14, on 0.35x 2009E P/BV, due to a 5% earnings cut.
欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Auto Sector 台灣汽車產業研究報告 - Merrill Lynch
U-Ming (2606 裕民) - Merrill Lynch Research
Capesize rates capsize
PO cut 75% to NT$22.5 as capesize rates fall 99% in 6mths
Capesize rates have been the worst affected by the commodity slump, with rates plunging 99% since May. U-Ming’s focus on this segment (around 68% of its bulk capacity is in capesize vessels) is clearly negative for the stock. We cut our 2008- 10 estimates and lower our price objective from NT$91 to NT$22.50.
Earnings set to collapse as charter agreements expire
The capesize market is in crisis as large stockpiles of iron ore at Chinese ports, the credit crunch and a global recession has resulted in spot rates diving from $235K/day to just $2,800. This is well below even cash breakeven levels, as operators seek cargoes at any price. U-Ming’s long-term contracts offer only
temporary protection. We cut our 2008 estimates by 10% and 2009-10 by ~85%.
欲閱讀全文者請按 U Ming 2606 裕民 研究報告 - 美林