以下是幾篇重要的外資研究報告，包括總體經濟、原油、主機板(MB)、筆記型電腦(NB)、半導體(Semiconductor)、記憶體(DRAM / NAND)、塑化產業(Chemicals)、資產(Property)等，提供該份報告的摘要如下，各位可參考閱讀，但切勿作為買賣的依據。
研究報告的更新以新增的方式增加在後面。
Asia Economics (CLSA 里昂)
Blowout!
Eric Fishwick and his economics team are forecasting severe GDP contractions across Asia. In ‘Blowout!’, their latest Triple-A report, they’ve taken the knife to the open economies of Taiwan (-11%), Singapore (-10%) and Korea (- 7%). These figures are almost twice as bad as today’s politically constrained “growth”
numbers from the IMF. Given that the global economy was still robust in 1H08, we’re looking at some sharp YoY declines. What’s more, governments hell-bent on socialising private-sector debt will ultimately create massive tax burdens. (Not that this will worry the Democrats in Washington.) If our macro forecasts are realised, and as corporate taxes evaporate, they’ll leave a huge hole in fiscal receipts. So it seems we’re also in for some major sovereign downgrades. The painful reality is that the fastest way to deleverage is to
allow bankruptcies and write off bad debts. Instead, the intervention path taken by governments around the globe will lead, at best, to Japan; at worst, Zimbabwe.
這一篇就是經建會直呼外資看衰台灣經濟太超過的研究報告。併附相關新聞報導如下：
港商里昂證券在外資圈丟出一顆震撼彈！全面調降亞太區經濟體2009年GDP預估值，其中以台灣、新加坡、南韓、香港分別下修至-10.7％、-10％、-7％、-5％最顯著，由於這波調整主要是針對出口比重高的經濟體為主，意味台灣經濟結構已面臨全面調整的關鍵時刻。
要觀看此份里昂的總體經濟研究報告者，請按 ASIA Economics – CLSA 閱讀全文。
Oil price update (原油)- Macquarie Research
OPEC is in the driving seat
We have cut our oil price forecast by US$16/bbl to US$59/bbl average (Brent) for 2009. For 2010 and 2011, we show cuts of US$3/bbl to US$76/bbl and US$2/bbl to US$90/bbl, respectively.
The sharp reductions in 2009 reflect the low level of economic activity around the world. The recovery in prices is based on our assumption of improved economic activity from 2010 and beyond and a belief that OPEC can and will cut output by an amount large enough to cut stock levels and create a shortage of supply.
Our assumption of a cut in world oil consumption in 2009 and the current high stock levels combine to keep in a range US$40−50/bbl for most of 1H09. Only when OPEC has implemented large scale cuts (3−3.5 million b/d) will prices start to recover. We expect this in 2H09.
要觀看此份麥格里(Macquarie)所出具的研究報告者，請按 Oil Price 原油 外資研究報告 – MACQ 閱讀全文
Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain (半導體)- Citi Research
Jan 09: A Bad Start Might Be A Trough Start
What’s New — Taiwan Semiconductor and TFT-LCD Supply Chain reports Jan sales of NT$129bn, -9% mom and -55% yoy. Jan mom decline was worse than the 3-year average of -2% mom due to the reduced number of working days. Jan yoy decline was worse than Dec 08’s -50% yoy, suggesting yoy decline will deteriorate, despite our expectations this will reverse starting Feb or Mar 09.
要觀看此份花旗所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain 閱讀全文
Taiwan Chemicals (塑化)- Goldman Sachs Research
Formosa: Mixed sales performance but outlook remains negative
Mixed sales performance but negative outlook remains; Sell
FPC (1301.TW) and NYPC (1303.TW) reported mom sales declines in Jan. of 9.1% and 14.2%, respectively mainly due to sales volumes declining during the Chinese New Year (CNY). FCFC (1326.TW) and FPCC (6505.TW) reported mom sales increases in Jan. of 6.2% and 29.7%, respectively as prices rebounded for some chemical and oil products as well as the end of the CDU maintenance shutdown at FPCC. We think the price increases were mainly driven by inventory re-stocking rather than demand driven, as well as some U.S. cracker shutdowns. However, as these idle capacities may resume production any time, we maintain our negative view on the Formosa group given our belief that the chemical cycle is still trending down, that new capacities are coming on line across the Middle East, and overall demand remains weak.
要觀看此份高盛所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Chemicals 閱讀全文
Taiwan MB/NB Food Chain Check (主機板 筆記型電腦)- Citi Research
A Very Weak Start for 1Q; No Signs of Demand Recovery Yet
Optimism mainly came from MB supply chain — Jan. NB shipments from top-5 NB ODMs dropped by 19% MoM vs. our estimate of 11% due to weak Netbook shipments (down 38% MoM) and channel distributors/PC OEMs’ reluctance of inventory overbuild. On the other hand, Tier-1 MB makers’ Jan. shipments surprised on the upside with 3% MoM growth vs. our estimate of -7% thanks to channel distributors’ inventory replenishment and better-than-expected clone demand from China and Europe. Some component makers also saw milder MoM decline in Jan. after massive order cuts in Nov. and Dec.
Glimmer 1Q outlook for NB — Although massive order cuts did not happen in Jan., disappointing Jan. shipments signaled that end demand for NBs remains weak. We revised down top-5 NB ODMs’ shipment growth to -27% QoQ from – 24%, vs. 0~17% decline over the past 8 years. New Netbook models from Acer
(10.1″ Aspire One) and HPQ (10.1″ Mini 2140) starting Feb. should be the major growth drivers to support 1Q shipment, while traditional NB shipments should continue to be weak.
要觀看此份花旗所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan MB NB Food Chain Check 閱讀全文
Global DRAM / NAND (記憶體)- Merrill Lynch Research
Elpida-Nanya-Micron tie-up unlikely to happen soon
Despite media speculation, we do not expect an immediate tie-up among Elpida, Micron and all of Taiwan’s DRAM vendors. The obstacles include how to (1) reshuffle capital structure (equity and debt among three nations), (2) finance necessary spending on new capex and R&D activities, (3) reconcile potential conflicts among stakeholders and local governments and (4) manage opportunity costs during the integration period, which could last at least one year in our view.
要觀看此份美林所出具的研究報告者，請按 Global DRAM NAND – 美林 閱讀全文
Taiwan Property (資產)- Macquarie Research
A cold Chinese New Year of the bull
We remain cautious on the Taiwan property sector amid a weak economic outlook. In this report, we downgrade Chong Hong to Underperform from Neutral after its recent share price rebound. We retain an Underperform on Sinyi but lower our TP to NT$21.5 from NT$32.0 to reflect persistently weak transactions in 1Q09.
We are still concerned about the risks faced by developers with high net gearing or imminent refinancing needs, such as Huang Hsiang (2545 TT, NT$10.9, UP, TP: NT$10.0), Prince (2511 TT, NT$4.5, UP, TP NT$4.0), Rich (5512 TT, NT$4.7, UP, TP NT$4.0), and Farglory (5522 TT, NT$21.9, UP, TP NT$17.0). For investors looking for value, we suggest Cathay RED (2501 TT, NT$6.7, Outperform, TP NT$11.0), which has a stronger balance sheet and earnings outlooks.
要觀看此份麥格里(MACQ)所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Property 研究報告 – MACQ 閱讀全文
——————2/20 新增———————-
最大負成長 經濟衰退 年底才有轉機
台灣正面臨史上最長的經濟衰退期！行政院主計處昨日公布最新經濟預測，初步統計去年全年經濟成長率(GDP成長率)為○．一二％、第四季衰退八．三六％，創下史上單季最大衰退；今年全年成長率下修至負成長二．九七％。更慘的是，主計處預估至少要等到今年第四季經濟成長才會由負轉正，這波經濟寒冬民眾至少要熬到年底。
經建會主委陳添枝昨出席三三會演講時也承認，若經濟連續兩季出現衰退時，就可確定是經濟衰退，以台灣去年第三季、第四季為負成長來看，顯示出台灣出現經濟衰退。政院主計處公布今年經濟成長率估計為負二點九七％，此難看數據已震驚層峰；馬英九總統極為重視，將於本周六日兩天密集邀集各部會進府開會因應，全力挽救經濟。
去年第三季起，預估國內將會連續五季經濟負成長，如此漫長的經濟負成長是否宣告國內大蕭條已來，行政院主計長石素梅表示：「現階段不能算是經濟大蕭條！」。她補充說明，目前國際上對經濟蕭條沒明確定義，通常是實質ＧＤＰ比高峰期少一○％或經濟成長連續衰退三年，才算經濟蕭條，去年經濟成長率維持正成長，目前台灣經濟沒陷入蕭條。
石素梅昨日表示，由於自去年七月起全球景氣重挫速度幅度超乎預期，重創國內出口動能及製造業，外銷訂單驟減，去年第四季輸出實質負成長高達十九．七五％，民間投資隨之萎縮等因素，導致去年第四季經濟成長率為負成長的八．三六％，創下史上單季最大衰退。
昨日主計處下修今年全年經濟成長率，由去年十一月預測的二．一二％，下修至負成長二．九七％．下修達五．○九個百分點，與原先預測值差距極大。主計處第三局長蔡鴻坤解釋，主要是因國內推行的振興經濟政策效果不如預期。
自去年第三季起，國內經濟成長率出現負成長，主計處昨預估，經濟負成長至少要今年第四季才有機會轉正，但轉為正成長是因去年第四季國內經濟已出現衰退，相比較基期較低，今年第四季經濟成長率才會預估為正成長四．五％。
全球景氣下滑、需求萎縮，國際原油及農工原料行情自去年下半年起大回檔，主計處表示，今年許多商家為刺激買氣推出各式折扣策略，去年偏高的油料費用已不存在，今年將呈狹幅波動，預估消費者物價指數今年將跌○．八二％，創有史以來最大跌幅，然主計處重申國內未邁入「通縮」。
平均每人GNP減少5.6萬 創紀錄
由於國內經濟嚴重衰退，且新台幣急速貶值，今年全體國民預計平均「變窮」將近十％，因為平均每人ＧＮＰ將大減一六一九美元，相當於每個人今年減少台幣五萬六千元。主計處說，通貨緊縮壓力確定已升高。
值得關注的是，依主計處預估的數字來看，今年平均每人ＧＮＰ與去年相比，銳減一六一九美元，退幅高達九．二一％，已創下歷史新高。次高紀錄為八十六年的一萬四○四八美元，因碰上亞洲金融風暴與本土金融風暴，台幣大貶與景氣大跌，導致八十七年的數字掉到一萬二七七三美元，跌幅為九％。
平均國民所得大減，而根據行政院主計處昨日公布最新數據顯示，台灣民間消費在去年全年創下史上最大負成長，達負成長的○．二九％，也是自統計以來首見民間消費負成長，顯示小市民在失業及減薪的雙向威脅下，確實很難拿錢出來消費。
民間消費之所以趨緩，主要是因國內失業率攀升。去年十二月失業人數則高達五十四．九萬人，創下歷史新高。國內薪資屢創新低，去年十一月名目經常性薪資，更創下近廿九年來同期最大減幅。
主計處解釋，受到失業率高升及薪資銳減影響，雖眾多商家不約而同降價促銷，加上政府戮力推動策進就業方案、工作所得補貼方案、調降多項賦稅、以及發放消費券等激勵措施，都不足以扭轉國際大環境利空衝擊。去年民間消費實質成長率，當中以食品消費減幅最大，減幅達一．五五％。
主計處預估，原本今年民間消費名目金額近乎停滯，估約為增○．○八％，但因受到消費券發揮效益，推動國內消費折扣風氣，國內物價下跌影響，使得民間消費實質成長率呈現小幅增長○．八二％。其中，食品消費成長一．二％，非食品消費亦成長○．七二％。
———————————————————————————-
以上是主計處下修2009年台灣GDP預估值的相關新聞。下面則是幾家外資機構對於2009年台灣GDP(經濟成長率)的預估報告。
Economics – Merrill Lynch Research
Taiwan : in deep recession
Growth collapsed in 4Q08
The Taiwanese economy contracted a record, worse-than-expected 8.4%y-o-y in 4Q08, prompting the central bank to deliver another 25bp inter-meeting rate cut today.
Though we believe the collapse in growth in part reflected the ‘heart attack’ the global economy experienced in 4Q08, it has become increasingly obvious that Taiwan—an extremely open economy without any domestic demand cushion—is headed for a more severe downturn than its Asian counterparts in 2009.
Cutting 2009-10 growth forecasts
In part reflecting the growth collapse in 4Q08, we now expect the Taiwanese economy to contract 5.5% y-o-y in 2009 (old forecast: -1.0%), before returning to a sluggish growth of 3.5%y-o-y in 2010. This should place Taiwan’s growth outlook in 2009 right near the bottom in the region, supporting our FX strategist’s bearish view on the TWD.
要觀看此份美林所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Economics 研究報告 – 美林 閱讀全文
Taiwan economics – Macquarie Research
Economy sinks by 50-year record, again
Taiwan’s economy grinds to a halt in 2008
4Q08 GDP fell 8.36% YoY, bringing full-year growth to 0.12%. This downturn marks a multi-decade low. Our 2009 GDP forecast has been downgraded to -6% (previous: – 2%; consensus: -2%).
The central bank has responded immediately with a 25bp rate cut, bringing the policy rate down to 1.25%.
We expect export growth (QoQ) to resume in the second half of 2009. If this fails to materialise, then policy stimulus will have to be significantly reinforced to reinvigorate private sector consumer and investment spending.
Best/worst case: Under a worst-case scenario, the deterioration in exports would deepen, pushing growth down to -8% in 2009. In a best-case scenario, domestic consumption would pick up, so that growth declines by only 2%.
要觀看此份麥格里所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Economics 研究報告 – 麥格里 閱讀全文
Taiwan economics - BNP Paribas Research
Taiwan: GDP (Q4 2008)
Catastrophic GDP data from Taiwan confirming the worst fears about how rapidly the economy is shrinking. With export market still shrinking, industrial inventories elevated and the labour market set to deteriorate sharply, worse is yet to come. 2009 GDP forecast sliced to -6.6% from -3.3% previously. Emergency 25bp rate cut by CBC announced today an umbrella in a hurricane. The zero bound for policy rates in play. Pressure on TWD to continue.
要觀看此份法國巴黎銀行所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Economics 研究報告 – BNP 閱讀全文
Taiwan Economics & Strategy - Morgan Stanley Research
Depreciate to Get Out of Recession
Along with our GDP downgrade earlier this week, we have also revised our FX forecasts. In our base case, we expect USD/TWD at 36.5 by end-2009, implying the TWD to depreciate by roughly 7% from current levels. In our bear case, we look for USD/TWD at 40, implying depreciation of 18%; our bull case is 34, equal to current levels. We believe any surprise will be geared more toward the bear case scenario.
As a result, even with a record fall in imports, it would be disappointing if Taiwan’s current account does not expand this year. In absolute USD value, we expect 2009 current account balance to narrow to $21 bn from $24 bn in 2008. In terms of % of GDP, we forecast current account surplus at 6.1% of GDP in
2008 and to widen only slightly to 6.7% of GDP in 2009; this compares to the last recession in 2001 when current account surplus expanded from 2.8% of GDP in 2000 to 6.5% in 2001.
要觀看此份Morgan Stanley所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Economics and Strategy – 摩根士丹利 閱讀全文
Asia Economics Analyst - Goldman Sachs Research
4Q2008 GDP slump; downgrading our alreadybelow- consensus forecast
We are revising down our GDP growth forecast to -6.5% for 2009, from our already-below-consensus GDP growth forecast of -3.0% (versus the consensus of -2.0%). We had been below consensus on our GDP forecasts, as noted in our recent article (see Taiwan: More favorable policy mix, but still overwhelmed by
deteriorating external demand, Asia Economics Flash, February 9) The significant downside surprise in the
4Q2008 data has pushed down the trajectory of our initial quarterly growth projection. Our new forecasts
now imply GDP growth to remain in negative territory until 4Q2009, with growth hitting -10.0% yoy in 1Q2009 and 2Q2009 (versus around -6.0% yoy previously). Note also that the government has revised its annual GDP growth forecast for 2009 to -3.0% yoy from 2.1% yoy.
要觀看此份高盛所出具的研究報告者，請按 Asia Economics Analyst – GS 閱讀全文
Hong Kong and Taiwan Economy - Daiwa Research
Broad-based slump prompts a downward revision to our real GDP forecasts
We now forecast Taiwan’s real GDP for 2009 to contract by 4.5% (from the previous forecast of -1.2%). With the weaker NT dollar, we forecast the currentaccount surplus to increase to 8% of GDP for 2009.
The government was slow to announce a meaningful fiscal-stimulus package, with the November 2008 package worth 4.4% of GDP (NT$483bn) but spread over four years. On 2 February 2009, NT$715bn was added to the package – NT$320bn of which was for 2009 alone. However, with the total stimulus for
this year equivalent to a modest 3.3% of GDP, we do not think the economy will receive enough of a counter-cyclical boost. We thus forecast real GDP to contract by 10.5% YoY for 1Q09 and by about 5.5% for 2Q09 before the impact of the fiscal and monetary stimulus begins to be felt in 2H09. We are revising
down our forecast for 2009 real GDP to a contraction of 4.5%, and believe the NT dollar is likely to depreciate to US$:NT$36.50 by mid-2009 before recovering to US$:NT$34.60 by the end of the year.
要觀看此份大和國泰所出具的研究報告者，請按 Hong Kong and Taiwan Economy – DAIWA 閱讀全文
Taiwan economics - Credit Suisse Research
Hold on tight as recession is confirmed with a bang
GDP contracted sharply by 8.4% year on year in 4Q08. This is the worst contraction since the onset of our dataset in 1962. The magnitude of the fall was a shock and surpassed consensus expectations of a 6-7% YoY decline. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy shrank markedly by 5.4%.
Credit Suisse has also revised its numbers lower with all of 2009 looking far more bearish. 2009 GDP is expected to fall 7.2% from the previous 1.1%. Apart from deeper falls in investment, we have also pushed back a material growth recovery until 2010 with inventories and private consumption likely to show deeper declines in this year.
要觀看此份瑞士信貸所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Economics – Credit Suisse 閱讀全文
6/23 2009 新增
Glass half full or half empty?
Asian Petrochemicals mini-peak in 1H09 provides opportunity to take profit ahead of the cycle trough
Take profit ahead of product price decline: We remain concerned about the 65% Y/Y jump in Jan-Apr Chinese PE imports as any price decline may prompt traders to dump products. Product price increases
have slowed significantly ahead of the new Saudi PE and MEG arriving in China during June/July. The new Sinopec Fujian Ethylene cracker is also ready to start up soon, which will further put pressure on volumes
and margins. We expect product prices to drop 20-30% in 3Q09.
要觀看此份JP Morgan所出具的研究報告者，請按 塑化產業研究報告-JPM 閱讀全文
