• 由於外資或券商的客戶眾多，因此研究報告具有絕對影響力。
• 外資經常出報告喊買(或喊賣)，但私底下卻反向操作，所以他們是市場反指標！
• 外資分析師或券商研究員，充其量只是公司派或主力的打手，研究報告只是他們的工具罷了！
• 寫研究報告的分析師或研究員，如果真有這麼厲害，自己賺就好，何必寫出來讓別人一起賺？
• 研究報告的準確度，要視撰寫者而定，不可以偏蓋全，準確度高的研究報告也不在少數。

持平而論，只有第五項評價是公平與正確的，其餘都是一般投資人常見的錯誤觀念。當然，或許你會不贊同這個論調，正所謂有多少證據說多少話，因此以下我們將提出證據來證明這一點，不過在證明之前，各位必須先對國外的投資銀行有基礎的瞭解，才能看懂我們的證據。(本文針對外資分析師的研究報告做說明，內資券商的研究員素質相對於外資分析師有一段差距，其研究報告抄襲外資分析者不在少數，在此我們就不多做說明了)

在美國，法令規定投資銀行不能像一般銀行一樣向民眾吸收存款與放款，因此其業務侷限於為企業提供股票發行與經紀、債券發行與經紀、重整與清算、資產管理等服務。在歐洲倒沒有這些限制，因此歐洲的投資銀行要就將上述業務設成一個部門，要就是成立子公司建立防火牆(類似台灣的金控，有商業銀行子公司，也有券商子公司)。

投資銀行爭取到企業發行股票的服務(承銷)後，必須將這批股票分散賣給其它的投資機構(例如投資公司、避險基金、退休基金…等)或民眾，因此這個時候投資銀行等同於賣方(Sell Side)，撰寫研究報告的分析師也被稱為Sell Side分析師，後來市場也統稱撰寫研究報告，建議客戶買賣股票，以幫助投資銀行賺取交易手續費的分析師為Sell Side分析師了。

Buy Side是相對於Sell Side的一個名稱，一家專業的投資機構，不會因為投資銀行建議他們參與某家公司的股票發行就隨便拿錢出來，他們自然也有專業的研究人員，這些研究員或分析師是站在買方的立場來思考是否值得投資，因此他們就是Buy Side分析師。後來市場對於投資銀行中資產管理部門的分析師、投信內部的研究員、避險基金內部的分析師….等，統稱為Buy Side分析師。

以下是Buy Side與Sell Side分析師的差異一覽表。

對投資銀行有了初步瞭解後，我們將面臨第一個問題–投資銀行既然提供幫助企業股票與債券發行的服務，自然某些上市櫃公司就屬於他們的客戶了，然而投資銀行也提供法人與民眾的股票經紀業務(即股票下單買賣服務)，法人與民眾也是他們的客戶了，這二種客戶彼此之間存在著利益上的衝突，投資銀行會偏向哪一邊？舉例來說，某公司打算辦理現金增資發行新股，自然希望股價漲高一點後，認購價格就能高一點，募集來的資金也就多一些了。投資銀行若想討好這個客戶，不就可能讓旗下分析師撰寫正面的研究報告，以利承銷前股價的上漲嗎？同樣的投資銀行在面對法人與民眾的這一群客戶時，自然希望對方買賣次數能增加，因為買賣次數越多，代表著投資銀行所收取的手續費收入將越高，不是嗎？此時投資銀行的目標又變成提供準確與即時的研究報告了。

第二個問題是從第一個問題衍生出來的，如果投資銀行的經紀業務手續費收入遠高於承銷業務手續費收入時，是否分析師會選擇站在專業投資機構與民眾這一邊，提供準確與即時的研究報告呢？

第三個問題是知名度較高、法人機構票選年度最佳分析師或分析團隊時，得票數較高的分析師，其研究報告的準確度是否會較高？

針對上述三個問題，我們提供 Conflicts of interest in sell-side research and the moderating role of institutional investors 這篇論文給各位參考，它是由 Alexander Ljungqvista, Felicia Marston, Laura T. Starks,
Kelsey D. Wei, Hong Yan 等五位教授共同發表。

這篇論文有以下幾個結論：

1.投資銀行與被追蹤公司間有承銷業務關係時，分析師會傾向發佈較為正面的研究報告，但是不代表準確度會較低，因為實證結果的統計並不顯著。

2.投資銀行市佔率越高、聲譽越好時，研究報告的準確度越高，小型投資銀行利益衝突情況較為嚴重。

3.被追蹤公司若機構法人持股越高，研究報告的準確性將越高。

4.評等較高或較知名的分析師在面對被追蹤公司股價快速上漲或下跌時，較能提供即時修正的研究報告(例如投資評等或目標價)。

5.聲譽較好的投資銀行、知名度較高的分析師，較少壓力去膨脹評論。

6.Buy Side分析師所撰寫的研究報告，總體而言，準確度高於Sell Side分析師。

在實務上有幾個特殊現象，其實都可以用這篇論文的結論來解釋，我直接以實例闡述如下：

1.分析師在針對特定個股撰寫研究報告時，偶而會出現令投資人咋舌的評等與目標價，例如2005年宏達電股價衝上1200元之際，多數分析師都發表看好的研究報告，目標價超越1500元者大有人在，隨著宏達電股價的下挫，首先發表宏達電看空言論者是瑞士信貸(Credit Suisse)的Felix Rusli，緊接著是摩根大通(J.P Morgan)的張凱偉，正因為和市場主流意見相左，事後股價不斷下跌也印證了他們的看法正確，更造就其高知名度。這是功成名就的例子，有沒有失敗的例子呢？當然有，不過我就不點名道姓了，以友達為例，2004年中股價從80元最高點一路滑落到跌破40元之際，某美系外資分析師將友達評等從買進直接調降到賣出，目標價直指25元，但友達跌到33元後見底，隨後股價逐步反彈至50元以上。

不可諱言的是….市佔率較低的投資銀行或知名度較低的分析師，為了爭取功成名就的機會，偶而會有膨脹評論的研究報告出現，例如目標價在1700元的宏達電，還有上例目標價在25元的友達，身為客戶的投資機構在看到這類研究報告時，極可能採取反向操作，因此我們會看到某外資喊賣，但實際上該外資卻呈現淨買超的情況，畢竟出報告的是投資銀行的分析師，決定買賣的是投資銀行的客戶，根本是二個不同的個體，可是不清楚狀況的投資人，往往會解讀成外資蓄意出報告要壓低進貨。

2.追蹤台積電的外資分析師，其研究報告的準確度，平均會高於追蹤京元電的分析師，其主要原因就在於上述論文的結論3，同理中鋼與大成鋼在道理上亦然。

3.外資分析師可能對被追蹤公司一路看多，股價下跌一段後突然轉向為看空，這一點經常被投資人所詬病，然而在批評之際，我建議該設身處地的思考對方立場。以科技業與原物料加工業(例如鋼鐵、塑化)為例，其景氣與接單狀況本來就處在很不穩定的狀態，尖型反轉時有所見，這種產業與公司，要預估其獲利自然有其困難度，失誤就在所難免了，國內的投資人總是在尋找像神一樣的分析師，遇到是人不是神的分析師時，也就給予極差的評價了，況且，閱讀報告的專業投資機構，是以投資組合決定獲利率，準確度高的分析師，就算少數一二篇研究報告失誤，也不會影響整體的評價，不像國內投資人喜歡單押個股，投資失利時總是將責任歸責於他人，這一點大家宜自我檢討改進。

本文希望給讀者一個正確的觀念，對人對事的批評，宜以整體且中立的角度觀之，而且不應該只透過看電視或報紙的方式，來瞭解外資分析師對個別公司的評價，如同論文中的結論，研究報告的準確度高低，其實與投資銀行聲譽、分析師知名度、個股的機構法人持股高低有關，單看電視或報紙來得知外資的態度，是見樹不見林的方式，最好的辦法是直接閱讀該份研究報告，仔細瞭解全部內容，不合理或不合邏輯的評價方式與內容，自然無須採信，如果該份研究報告的內容完整又合乎邏輯道理，可供參考的價值自然較高了。

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一般人對於長期投資的認知，多數侷限於Buy and Hold，也就是買進後無論什麼原因，都不打算賣出，而且時間長達五年或十年以上(EX. 黃培源所著的理財聖經)。很多投資人光看到五年或十年以上的投資時間就被嚇跑了，也有投資人誤以為長期投資指的是三或六個月，甚至一年以上就屬於長期投資。基本上我們認為這些都是錯誤的認知，因此價值投資法的第五個重要觀念-長期投資的心態，我們特別強調的是心態這二個字，而不是僅僅長期投資這四個字。

在價值投資法的介紹(一)中對於長期投資的心態有一段描述是…..你買進股票的目的不是短期要賺取價差，而是想要分享公司經營的成果，例如今年公司的獲利是每股3元，你要分享的是這每股3元的獲利，而不是想要賺取幾天的價差利潤。

今天我們就以婚姻為例，清楚的解釋心態的重要性。如果男女雙方在自由戀愛的情況下結為夫妻，當下必是彼此都認為對方為理想的終身伴侶，此時所謂的理想，對雙方而言，另一半的外貌、溫柔嫻淑、興趣、善解人意、幽默風趣、體貼、收入、家庭背景…..等都是因素之一，不是嗎？如果婚後若干年，理想的因素全都變質了，當初的溫柔體貼如今變成暴力相向，當初的幽默風趣如今變成酗酒無度，甚至是第三者的介入使得另一方不顧家庭，試問，婚姻是否仍有維持的必要？

長期投資的心態指的就是….投資人在投資前挑選公司，必須當成在挑選終身伴侶一般，而不是像挑選一夜情對象般的隨便。投資後除非某些重要因素產生了重大質變，否則不應隨便賣出，至於重要因素為何？其實就是價值投資法中另外三個重要觀念-價值、安全邊際與好公司。

投資的錯誤判斷其實不可能完全避免，盡全力避免與事後的補救措施，其實就是投資上的完美。以巴菲特為例，他投資美國航空就是一個錯誤的投資，事後當他發現美國航空並非好公司時，他選擇賣出持股，而不是繼續持有到美國航空宣布破產，縱使這筆投資仍有獲利，巴菲特依舊對所有投資人坦言這是一筆錯誤的投資。

再以遠低於價值的價格(安全邊際)為例，如果買進一家公司的股票一段時間後，出現了遠高於價值的價格呢？持有者該選擇賣出還是繼續持有？縱使當初買入時抱持著長期投資的心態，但是安全邊際已經出現重大質變，繼續持有反而變成愚昧了。舉例來說，你評估某公司的合理價值是50元，考量安全邊際後，你決定在30元買進，當股價跌落到30元時，你買進了，很幸運的是….隨後不久，該公司股價出現快速的上漲，幾個月後股價上漲到100元。從此例我們可以發現，原先的安全邊際是50-30=20元，當前股價所呈現的不是安全邊際的狀態，反而是危險邊際，因為50-100= -50元。此時縱使投資的時間僅有幾個月，價值投資者仍會選擇賣出，因為該公司的價值依舊維持在50元，繼續持有反而變成不合理了。

長期投資 ≠ 永久投資，『買進後永遠不要賣』是一個錯誤的觀念，買進前要有長期投資的心態，除非『價值、安全邊際與好公司』等三項因素出現重大質變，否則買進後不要輕易選擇賣出，這才是正確的觀念。

國內投資人所慣用的『價格停損原則』，在價值投資法中是不適用的，換言之，價格的下跌，並非是否要賣出的考量因素之一，反而價格的上漲，產生價格遠高於價值的情況(呈現高的危險邊際)時，才是賣出的考量因素之一。

上述是針對個股本身的賣出考量做說明，如果是投資組合(Portfolio)呢？投資組合要考量的因素比單一個股複雜許多，舉例來說，一個包含五檔個股(A、B、C、D、E公司)的投資組合，在買進建立持股之際，該五檔個股所呈現的安全邊際 / 價值 比率，分別是25%、28%、30%、32%、35%，一段時間後，這個比率變為15%、10%、25%、35%、40%，很顯然地，比率40%的個股隱含未來有較高的投資報酬率(假設價格終將反映價值)，投資人可以選擇降低A、B二公司的持股比率，增加D、E公司的持股比率。這是投資組合內個股間持股比率的調整，如果有一家F公司，其原本的安全邊際 / 價值 比率為15%，因為吸引力相對不足所以沒有買進，一段時間後這個比率變成了35%，投資人在考量投資組合時，也可以減持A、B二家公司，而新增買進F公司的股票。

從波克夏(Berkshire Hathaway)提交給美國證管會(Securities and Exchange Commission，SEC)的報告發現，巴菲特在去年第4季大舉處分保健類股投資，不但大砍嬌生(Johnson & Johnson)持股部位54%，還削減寶鹼(Procter & Gamble，P&G)持股9%。加碼買進鐵路股伯靈頓北方聖大菲（Burlington Northern Santa Fe，BNSF）、工業設備製造商伊頓（Eaton Corp.）、工業生產公司英格索蘭（INGERSOLL-RAND）與電力能源公司NRG Energy股票。

另外波克夏亦小幅持減持富國銀行（Wells Fargo），US BANCORP持股削減7.4%，但美國運通（American Express）與美國銀行（Bank of America）龐大部位維持不變。

巴菲特之所以決定波克夏要減持嬌生、寶鹼、富國銀行、US BANCORP的持股，而加碼聖大菲、伊頓、英格索蘭、NRG Energy的股票，就是從投資組合的角度作為思考出發，因為波克夏近期不但股票的投資組合作了調整，固定收益債券的比例也增加不少，當風險相對偏低的固定收益債券，其未來報酬率並未明顯低於風險相對偏高的某些股票時，債券的吸引力自然會高於股票了。因此波克夏減碼某些公司的持股，並非看空美股而全面減碼，也不是單一的停損動作，這一點投資人千萬不可誤會。

正通投資團隊觀察巴菲特的投資組合時發現，從1977年到 2004年的27年間，只有22檔股票是巴菲特持有3年以上的，當中的大都會美國廣播公司、政府僱員保險公司和華盛頓郵報等三家公司，巴菲特曾明確表示過將一輩子持有。因此長期投資不應著重於時間長短，而是投資前的心態、買入後公司營運狀態的持續追蹤、決定賣出前的審慎思考。

股市投資沒有放之四海皆準的公式，因此投資人在學習與運用價值投資法的同時，必須因地與因人制宜，這裡所指的『地』就是市場，而『人』則是投資人自己。換言之，在不同市場的二個投資人，運用價值投資法時相同之處在於觀念，不同之處則為方法的差異。

『巴菲特太快扣扳機？』這是某報的一則新聞標題，其內容我們摘要如下：

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投資大師巴菲特(Warren Buffett)過去兩年的投資無所不包，但去年史坦普500指數大跌38%後，這些股票的價格已跌到他的買入價格以下，所屬伯克夏海瑟威公司股價過去一年來下跌36%，獲利連續四季走跌。

依規定，巴菲特每三個月必須向監管機構申報所屬公司持股資料，去年第四季的最新報告，預定要在本週末以前提出，內容將包括巴菲特在史坦普500指數20多年來表現最慘一季的進出情況。

巴菲特評估企業的標準，是根據企業的穩定度、競爭優勢及他所認定它們未來的價值，並非試著要找出這些股票跌到最低點的時間點；不過，從他近期買進的股票價格紛紛走跌來看，他可能太過躁進了。

避險基金Ram Partners創辦人馬修表示：「巴菲特買進的這些股票，部分股價早已大跌，讓人感到好奇，他是不是太快扣下扳機？」YCMNet顧問公司的總裁游斯卡密表示：「事後看來，很容易發現巴菲特出手過早。」他可能是第一個喊進的，不過，他和其他人一樣，不知道事情還會變得多壞。

美國大學教授馬丁坦言：「巴菲特不是那種錯過機會就怨恨自己的人，不過，事實很明顯，他一些持股的價格，已經遠低於他當初認為划算的交易。」

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類似的評論與看法，在現今的環境中其實不少，站在當下的這個時間點，類似的批評倒很正常，甚至不少投資人也自我警惕，目前全球經濟與金融情勢非常不穩定，貿然進場試圖買在底部其實是很不恰當的行為，正通投資團隊無意將巴菲特視為至高無上的精神領袖或偶像，不過站在價值投資法的角度來觀察此一現象時，我們曾經發表 股神巴菲特這次將晚節不保？ 的一篇文章，提供各位參考。

是否太早扣扳機？其實這個問題巴菲特在許多年前就曾經講出答案，可惜評論者往往非價值投資者，因此無從瞭解價值投資法的實質內涵。如果一家好公司在遠低於價值的價格下買進，買進後股價持續下跌時該怎麼辦？巴菲特的看法是…..安全邊際持續的擴大，代表市場願意給投資人未來更好的獲利契機，投資人為何不敢繼續買進呢？事實上巴菲特的買進動作正在持續進行，包括瑞士再保險集團的債券認購、重型機車製造商 - 哈雷 (Harley-Davidson）發行的6億美元優先無擔保債券認購、知名品牌Tiffany所發行2.5億美元公司債的認購…..等等。

建議讀者在思考這個問題時，切勿用短期的結果來批評仍在持續進行中的投資過程，而且重點應該擺在方法，而不是人物才對。舉例來說，如果一個歷來成績優秀的高二學生，期末考成績不理想，就代表大學聯考時會考不到理想學校，這樣的評論是否過於武斷呢？相信讀者自有公論。

從一系列價值投資法的介紹中，各位可以概略性的瞭解價值投資法的觀念與原則，建議各位可以參照關於巴菲特的系列文章，這將有助於各位瞭解巴菲特投資法則、巴菲特投資策略、巴菲特投資心法、巴菲特投資原則甚至是巴菲特投資名言，並進而真正認識價值投資法(或巴菲特投資法)。

至於實務上對於好公司的評估與價值的衡量方法，我們有提到部分，由於本文的目的主要是闡述價值投資法的觀念，因此其餘的方法則留待有心學習者自行摸索，若您認同價值投資法，囿於時間或專業經驗與知識的不足，需要正通投資團隊的協助，請參閱『關於正通』。

相關文章

• 股神巴菲特這次將晚節不保？
• 巴菲特說：Buy American. I Am.
• 中信金 / 國泰金 / 玉山金 / 新光金 / 台新金 / 第一金 / 中壽 / 彰銀
• 關於巴菲特 (七)
• 全球金融風暴紀事
• 關於巴菲特 (六)
• 關於巴菲特 (四)

研究報告的更新以新增的方式增加在後面。

Asia Economics (CLSA 里昂)

Blowout!

Eric Fishwick and his economics team are forecasting severe GDP contractions across Asia. In ‘Blowout!’, their latest Triple-A report, they’ve taken the knife to the open economies of Taiwan (-11%), Singapore (-10%) and Korea (- 7%). These figures are almost twice as bad as today’s politically constrained “growth”
numbers from the IMF. Given that the global economy was still robust in 1H08, we’re looking at some sharp YoY declines. What’s more, governments hell-bent on socialising private-sector debt will ultimately create massive tax burdens. (Not that this will worry the Democrats in Washington.) If our macro forecasts are realised, and as corporate taxes evaporate, they’ll leave a huge hole in fiscal receipts. So it seems we’re also in for some major sovereign downgrades. The painful reality is that the fastest way to deleverage is to
allow bankruptcies and write off bad debts. Instead, the intervention path taken by governments around the globe will lead, at best, to Japan; at worst, Zimbabwe.

這一篇就是經建會直呼外資看衰台灣經濟太超過的研究報告。併附相關新聞報導如下：

港商里昂證券在外資圈丟出一顆震撼彈！全面調降亞太區經濟體2009年GDP預估值，其中以台灣、新加坡、南韓、香港分別下修至-10.7％、-10％、-7％、-5％最顯著，由於這波調整主要是針對出口比重高的經濟體為主，意味台灣經濟結構已面臨全面調整的關鍵時刻。

要觀看此份里昂的總體經濟研究報告者，請按 ASIA Economics - CLSA 閱讀全文。

Oil price update (原油)- Macquarie Research

OPEC is in the driving seat

We have cut our oil price forecast by US$16/bbl to US$59/bbl average (Brent) for 2009. For 2010 and 2011, we show cuts of US$3/bbl to US$76/bbl and US$2/bbl to US$90/bbl, respectively.

The sharp reductions in 2009 reflect the low level of economic activity around the world. The recovery in prices is based on our assumption of improved economic activity from 2010 and beyond and a belief that OPEC can and will cut output by an amount large enough to cut stock levels and create a shortage of supply.
Our assumption of a cut in world oil consumption in 2009 and the current high stock levels combine to keep in a range US$40−50/bbl for most of 1H09. Only when OPEC has implemented large scale cuts (3−3.5 million b/d) will prices start to recover. We expect this in 2H09.

要觀看此份麥格里(Macquarie)所出具的研究報告者，請按 Oil Price 原油 外資研究報告 - MACQ 閱讀全文

Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain (半導體)- Citi Research

Jan 09: A Bad Start Might Be A Trough Start
What’s New — Taiwan Semiconductor and TFT-LCD Supply Chain reports Jan sales of NT$129bn, -9% mom and -55% yoy. Jan mom decline was worse than the 3-year average of -2% mom due to the reduced number of working days. Jan yoy decline was worse than Dec 08’s -50% yoy, suggesting yoy decline will deteriorate, despite our expectations this will reverse starting Feb or Mar 09.

要觀看此份花旗所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Semiconductor Supply Chain 閱讀全文

Taiwan Chemicals (塑化)- Goldman Sachs Research

Formosa: Mixed sales performance but outlook remains negative

Mixed sales performance but negative outlook remains; Sell
FPC (1301.TW) and NYPC (1303.TW) reported mom sales declines in Jan. of 9.1% and 14.2%, respectively mainly due to sales volumes declining during the Chinese New Year (CNY). FCFC (1326.TW) and FPCC (6505.TW) reported mom sales increases in Jan. of 6.2% and 29.7%, respectively as prices rebounded for some chemical and oil products as well as the end of the CDU maintenance shutdown at FPCC. We think the price increases were mainly driven by inventory re-stocking rather than demand driven, as well as some U.S. cracker shutdowns. However, as these idle capacities may resume production any time, we maintain our negative view on the Formosa group given our belief that the chemical cycle is still trending down, that new capacities are coming on line across the Middle East, and overall demand remains weak.

要觀看此份高盛所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Chemicals 閱讀全文

Taiwan MB/NB Food Chain Check (主機板 筆記型電腦)- Citi Research

A Very Weak Start for 1Q; No Signs of Demand Recovery Yet

Optimism mainly came from MB supply chain — Jan. NB shipments from top-5 NB ODMs dropped by 19% MoM vs. our estimate of 11% due to weak Netbook shipments (down 38% MoM) and channel distributors/PC OEMs’ reluctance of inventory overbuild. On the other hand, Tier-1 MB makers’ Jan. shipments surprised on the upside with 3% MoM growth vs. our estimate of -7% thanks to channel distributors’ inventory replenishment and better-than-expected clone demand from China and Europe. Some component makers also saw milder MoM decline in Jan. after massive order cuts in Nov. and Dec.

Glimmer 1Q outlook for NB — Although massive order cuts did not happen in Jan., disappointing Jan. shipments signaled that end demand for NBs remains weak. We revised down top-5 NB ODMs’ shipment growth to -27% QoQ from - 24%, vs. 0~17% decline over the past 8 years. New Netbook models from Acer
(10.1″ Aspire One) and HPQ (10.1″ Mini 2140) starting Feb. should be the major growth drivers to support 1Q shipment, while traditional NB shipments should continue to be weak.

要觀看此份花旗所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan MB NB Food Chain Check 閱讀全文

Global DRAM / NAND (記憶體)- Merrill Lynch Research

Elpida-Nanya-Micron tie-up unlikely to happen soon
Despite media speculation, we do not expect an immediate tie-up among Elpida, Micron and all of Taiwan’s DRAM vendors. The obstacles include how to (1) reshuffle capital structure (equity and debt among three nations), (2) finance necessary spending on new capex and R&D activities, (3) reconcile potential conflicts among stakeholders and local governments and (4) manage opportunity costs during the integration period, which could last at least one year in our view.

要觀看此份美林所出具的研究報告者，請按 Global DRAM NAND - 美林 閱讀全文

Taiwan Property (資產)- Macquarie Research

A cold Chinese New Year of the bull

We remain cautious on the Taiwan property sector amid a weak economic outlook. In this report, we downgrade Chong Hong to Underperform from Neutral after its recent share price rebound. We retain an Underperform on Sinyi but lower our TP to NT$21.5 from NT$32.0 to reflect persistently weak transactions in 1Q09.

We are still concerned about the risks faced by developers with high net gearing or imminent refinancing needs, such as Huang Hsiang (2545 TT, NT$10.9, UP, TP: NT$10.0), Prince (2511 TT, NT$4.5, UP, TP NT$4.0), Rich (5512 TT, NT$4.7, UP, TP NT$4.0), and Farglory (5522 TT, NT$21.9, UP, TP NT$17.0). For investors looking for value, we suggest Cathay RED (2501 TT, NT$6.7, Outperform, TP NT$11.0), which has a stronger balance sheet and earnings outlooks.

要觀看此份麥格里(MACQ)所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Property 研究報告 - MACQ 閱讀全文

——————2/20 新增———————-

最大負成長 經濟衰退 年底才有轉機

台灣正面臨史上最長的經濟衰退期！行政院主計處昨日公布最新經濟預測，初步統計去年全年經濟成長率(GDP成長率)為○．一二％、第四季衰退八．三六％，創下史上單季最大衰退；今年全年成長率下修至負成長二．九七％。更慘的是，主計處預估至少要等到今年第四季經濟成長才會由負轉正，這波經濟寒冬民眾至少要熬到年底。

經建會主委陳添枝昨出席三三會演講時也承認，若經濟連續兩季出現衰退時，就可確定是經濟衰退，以台灣去年第三季、第四季為負成長來看，顯示出台灣出現經濟衰退。政院主計處公布今年經濟成長率估計為負二點九七％，此難看數據已震驚層峰；馬英九總統極為重視，將於本周六日兩天密集邀集各部會進府開會因應，全力挽救經濟。

去年第三季起，預估國內將會連續五季經濟負成長，如此漫長的經濟負成長是否宣告國內大蕭條已來，行政院主計長石素梅表示：「現階段不能算是經濟大蕭條！」。她補充說明，目前國際上對經濟蕭條沒明確定義，通常是實質ＧＤＰ比高峰期少一○％或經濟成長連續衰退三年，才算經濟蕭條，去年經濟成長率維持正成長，目前台灣經濟沒陷入蕭條。

石素梅昨日表示，由於自去年七月起全球景氣重挫速度幅度超乎預期，重創國內出口動能及製造業，外銷訂單驟減，去年第四季輸出實質負成長高達十九．七五％，民間投資隨之萎縮等因素，導致去年第四季經濟成長率為負成長的八．三六％，創下史上單季最大衰退。

昨日主計處下修今年全年經濟成長率，由去年十一月預測的二．一二％，下修至負成長二．九七％．下修達五．○九個百分點，與原先預測值差距極大。主計處第三局長蔡鴻坤解釋，主要是因國內推行的振興經濟政策效果不如預期。

自去年第三季起，國內經濟成長率出現負成長，主計處昨預估，經濟負成長至少要今年第四季才有機會轉正，但轉為正成長是因去年第四季國內經濟已出現衰退，相比較基期較低，今年第四季經濟成長率才會預估為正成長四．五％。

全球景氣下滑、需求萎縮，國際原油及農工原料行情自去年下半年起大回檔，主計處表示，今年許多商家為刺激買氣推出各式折扣策略，去年偏高的油料費用已不存在，今年將呈狹幅波動，預估消費者物價指數今年將跌○．八二％，創有史以來最大跌幅，然主計處重申國內未邁入「通縮」。

平均每人GNP減少5.6萬 創紀錄

由於國內經濟嚴重衰退，且新台幣急速貶值，今年全體國民預計平均「變窮」將近十％，因為平均每人ＧＮＰ將大減一六一九美元，相當於每個人今年減少台幣五萬六千元。主計處說，通貨緊縮壓力確定已升高。

值得關注的是，依主計處預估的數字來看，今年平均每人ＧＮＰ與去年相比，銳減一六一九美元，退幅高達九．二一％，已創下歷史新高。次高紀錄為八十六年的一萬四○四八美元，因碰上亞洲金融風暴與本土金融風暴，台幣大貶與景氣大跌，導致八十七年的數字掉到一萬二七七三美元，跌幅為九％。

平均國民所得大減，而根據行政院主計處昨日公布最新數據顯示，台灣民間消費在去年全年創下史上最大負成長，達負成長的○．二九％，也是自統計以來首見民間消費負成長，顯示小市民在失業及減薪的雙向威脅下，確實很難拿錢出來消費。

民間消費之所以趨緩，主要是因國內失業率攀升。去年十二月失業人數則高達五十四．九萬人，創下歷史新高。國內薪資屢創新低，去年十一月名目經常性薪資，更創下近廿九年來同期最大減幅。

主計處解釋，受到失業率高升及薪資銳減影響，雖眾多商家不約而同降價促銷，加上政府戮力推動策進就業方案、工作所得補貼方案、調降多項賦稅、以及發放消費券等激勵措施，都不足以扭轉國際大環境利空衝擊。去年民間消費實質成長率，當中以食品消費減幅最大，減幅達一．五五％。

主計處預估，原本今年民間消費名目金額近乎停滯，估約為增○．○八％，但因受到消費券發揮效益，推動國內消費折扣風氣，國內物價下跌影響，使得民間消費實質成長率呈現小幅增長○．八二％。其中，食品消費成長一．二％，非食品消費亦成長○．七二％。

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以上是主計處下修2009年台灣GDP預估值的相關新聞。下面則是幾家外資機構對於2009年台灣GDP(經濟成長率)的預估報告。

Economics - Merrill Lynch Research

Taiwan : in deep recession

Growth collapsed in 4Q08
The Taiwanese economy contracted a record, worse-than-expected 8.4%y-o-y in 4Q08, prompting the central bank to deliver another 25bp inter-meeting rate cut today.
Though we believe the collapse in growth in part reflected the ‘heart attack’ the global economy experienced in 4Q08, it has become increasingly obvious that Taiwan—an extremely open economy without any domestic demand cushion—is headed for a more severe downturn than its Asian counterparts in 2009.

Cutting 2009-10 growth forecasts
In part reflecting the growth collapse in 4Q08, we now expect the Taiwanese economy to contract 5.5% y-o-y in 2009 (old forecast: -1.0%), before returning to a sluggish growth of 3.5%y-o-y in 2010. This should place Taiwan’s growth outlook in 2009 right near the bottom in the region, supporting our FX strategist’s bearish view on the TWD.

要觀看此份美林所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Economics 研究報告 - 美林 閱讀全文

Taiwan economics - Macquarie Research

Economy sinks by 50-year record, again

Taiwan’s economy grinds to a halt in 2008
4Q08 GDP fell 8.36% YoY, bringing full-year growth to 0.12%. This downturn marks a multi-decade low. Our 2009 GDP forecast has been downgraded to -6% (previous: - 2%; consensus: -2%).
The central bank has responded immediately with a 25bp rate cut, bringing the policy rate down to 1.25%.
We expect export growth (QoQ) to resume in the second half of 2009. If this fails to materialise, then policy stimulus will have to be significantly reinforced to reinvigorate private sector consumer and investment spending.

Best/worst case: Under a worst-case scenario, the deterioration in exports would deepen, pushing growth down to -8% in 2009. In a best-case scenario, domestic consumption would pick up, so that growth declines by only 2%.

要觀看此份麥格里所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Economics 研究報告 - 麥格里 閱讀全文

Taiwan economics - BNP Paribas Research

Taiwan: GDP (Q4 2008)

Catastrophic GDP data from Taiwan confirming the worst fears about how rapidly the economy is shrinking. With export market still shrinking, industrial inventories elevated and the labour market set to deteriorate sharply, worse is yet to come. 2009 GDP forecast sliced to -6.6% from -3.3% previously. Emergency 25bp rate cut by CBC announced today an umbrella in a hurricane. The zero bound for policy rates in play. Pressure on TWD to continue.

要觀看此份法國巴黎銀行所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Economics 研究報告 - BNP 閱讀全文

Taiwan Economics & Strategy - Morgan Stanley Research

Depreciate to Get Out of Recession

Along with our GDP downgrade earlier this week, we have also revised our FX forecasts. In our base case, we expect USD/TWD at 36.5 by end-2009, implying the TWD to depreciate by roughly 7% from current levels. In our bear case, we look for USD/TWD at 40, implying depreciation of 18%; our bull case is 34, equal to current levels. We believe any surprise will be geared more toward the bear case scenario.

As a result, even with a record fall in imports, it would be disappointing if Taiwan’s current account does not expand this year. In absolute USD value, we expect 2009 current account balance to narrow to $21 bn from $24 bn in 2008. In terms of % of GDP, we forecast current account surplus at 6.1% of GDP in
2008 and to widen only slightly to 6.7% of GDP in 2009; this compares to the last recession in 2001 when current account surplus expanded from 2.8% of GDP in 2000 to 6.5% in 2001.

要觀看此份Morgan Stanley所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Economics and Strategy - 摩根士丹利 閱讀全文

Asia Economics Analyst - Goldman Sachs Research

4Q2008 GDP slump; downgrading our alreadybelow- consensus forecast

We are revising down our GDP growth forecast to -6.5% for 2009, from our already-below-consensus GDP growth forecast of -3.0% (versus the consensus of -2.0%). We had been below consensus on our GDP forecasts, as noted in our recent article (see Taiwan: More favorable policy mix, but still overwhelmed by
deteriorating external demand, Asia Economics Flash, February 9) The significant downside surprise in the
4Q2008 data has pushed down the trajectory of our initial quarterly growth projection. Our new forecasts
now imply GDP growth to remain in negative territory until 4Q2009, with growth hitting -10.0% yoy in 1Q2009 and 2Q2009 (versus around -6.0% yoy previously). Note also that the government has revised its annual GDP growth forecast for 2009 to -3.0% yoy from 2.1% yoy.

要觀看此份高盛所出具的研究報告者，請按 Asia Economics Analyst - GS 閱讀全文

Hong Kong and Taiwan Economy - Daiwa Research

Broad-based slump prompts a downward revision to our real GDP forecasts

We now forecast Taiwan’s real GDP for 2009 to contract by 4.5% (from the previous forecast of -1.2%). With the weaker NT dollar, we forecast the currentaccount surplus to increase to 8% of GDP for 2009.

The government was slow to announce a meaningful fiscal-stimulus package, with the November 2008 package worth 4.4% of GDP (NT$483bn) but spread over four years. On 2 February 2009, NT$715bn was added to the package – NT$320bn of which was for 2009 alone. However, with the total stimulus for
this year equivalent to a modest 3.3% of GDP, we do not think the economy will receive enough of a counter-cyclical boost. We thus forecast real GDP to contract by 10.5% YoY for 1Q09 and by about 5.5% for 2Q09 before the impact of the fiscal and monetary stimulus begins to be felt in 2H09. We are revising
down our forecast for 2009 real GDP to a contraction of 4.5%, and believe the NT dollar is likely to depreciate to US$:NT$36.50 by mid-2009 before recovering to US$:NT$34.60 by the end of the year.

要觀看此份大和國泰所出具的研究報告者，請按 Hong Kong and Taiwan Economy - DAIWA 閱讀全文

Taiwan economics - Credit Suisse Research

Hold on tight as recession is confirmed with a bang

GDP contracted sharply by 8.4% year on year in 4Q08. This is the worst contraction since the onset of our dataset in 1962. The magnitude of the fall was a shock and surpassed consensus expectations of a 6-7% YoY decline. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, the economy shrank markedly by 5.4%.

Credit Suisse has also revised its numbers lower with all of 2009 looking far more bearish. 2009 GDP is expected to fall 7.2% from the previous 1.1%. Apart from deeper falls in investment, we have also pushed back a material growth recovery until 2010 with inventories and private consumption likely to show deeper declines in this year.

要觀看此份瑞士信貸所出具的研究報告者，請按 Taiwan Economics - Credit Suisse 閱讀全文

6/23 2009 新增

Glass half full or half empty?

Asian Petrochemicals mini-peak in 1H09 provides opportunity to take profit ahead of the cycle trough

Take profit ahead of product price decline: We remain concerned about the 65% Y/Y jump in Jan-Apr Chinese PE imports as any price decline may prompt traders to dump products. Product price increases
have slowed significantly ahead of the new Saudi PE and MEG arriving in China during June/July. The new Sinopec Fujian Ethylene cracker is also ready to start up soon, which will further put pressure on volumes
and margins. We expect product prices to drop 20-30% in 3Q09.

要觀看此份JP Morgan所出具的研究報告者，請按 塑化產業研究報告-JPM 閱讀全文

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• DRAM 公司是不是一個好的投資標的？！
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當時朱元璋雖然佔領了徽州，其實力仍然遜於其他的義勇軍，因此朱升建議他高築城牆採取守勢，並藉機擴充兵力，同時要鼓勵農耕儲備糧食，不圖虛名暫不稱王，以避免成為元軍與其他義勇軍攻擊的目標。這三句共九個字，成了指導朱元璋奪取天下、建立大明王朝的行動綱領。

如果我們將元朝末年的情境，跨越時空與環境將它並成某個產業各個公司的競爭狀態後，是否歷史真能成為一面鏡子，在金融風暴肆虐後的今天，幫助我們找出2009年優質的投資標的呢？

誠如巴菲特所言：『退潮時我們將可看到誰在裸泳』，這句話屬於負面批判，換到正面的角度來思考，不就是李世民所云的『疾風知勁草、板蕩識忠臣』嗎？(又或是退潮時我們將可看到誰穿著泳裝)

一個成功的企業經營者，必須具備高瞻遠矚的眼光與胸懷，因此『高築牆』中的牆，可以轉化為企業的城牆，也就是所謂的競爭力。在關於巴菲特 (七)這篇文章中，巴菲特曾說：『我想要的生意外面得有個城牆(或護城河)，居中是價值不菲的城堡，而我要負責的、能幹的人才來管理這個城堡。』，其中所謂的城牆(或護城河)，就是企業阻隔競爭對手進行價格或市場佔有率競爭的條件。

Cost Down是永遠的現在進行式，這是日本企業對於成本管理的態度(例如Kaizen Cost Management)，如果我們將這個態度擴大到整個城牆的建立，那麼不管是成本管理、製程與設備的更新、技術研發、IP(Intellectual Property)的申請…等，都是城牆建立的基石，而高築牆的行為，不是只有在經濟衰退時要努力，而是無論景氣處在成長或衰退的階段，都必須持續進行。

一家公司是否具備競爭力，並不是一定要景氣處在衰退階段才能看出。舉例來說，基本金屬與塑化原物料價格在2008年年中達到最高峰，在此之前，景氣仍舊處於熱絡的狀態，然而中下游相關業者卻面臨製造成本攀升的龐大壓力，多數的經營者採取建立高庫存的方式來因應，這是治標不治本的方法，縱使低價庫存可以使企業單季獲利大躍增，但是當原物料價格反轉之後，高庫存反成會造成大幅度的虧損。

這一點現在正反映在台灣的鋼鐵、塑化、橡膠等諸多傳統產業中，我們可以從財務報表中，毛利率與存貨跌價損失這二個部分看出這個現象。城牆就如同一家企業的競爭力，競爭力高的企業，不但有助於阻絕(潛在)競爭者的威脅，也能幫助企業順利度過不景氣的階段。

競爭力可以是技術優勢、規模經濟、品牌、員工素質、企業文化….等。舉例來說，中鋼是國內唯一的一貫化鋼鐵上游製造廠，地利之便、規模經濟、員工素質與企業文化都是中鋼所構築出來的城牆，因此鋼鐵業若遭逢景氣逆風時，中鋼將是國內鋼鐵業中最有能力走過逆境的廠商。

由於鋼鐵業屬於景氣循環產業，因此投資中鋼的最佳時間點不是中鋼獲利良好之際，反而是全球鋼鐵景氣持續下滑後一段時間，中鋼的EPS落到二元附近時。這個時候的中鋼，高築的城牆不但有助於它走過逆境，在下一波景氣翻揚時，亦可幫助中鋼快速產生高額獲利。

囿於客戶權益的保障，我們不會在文章中提及目前客戶投資的個股與觀察中的個股，所以那些傳產公司在景氣熱絡階段持續在進行高築牆的動作，各位必須自行去尋找，可以提醒各位的是….從財務報表中的毛利率、存貨跌價損失、固定資產變動狀態與研發費用等部分仔細觀察即可。

『廣積糧』中的糧食，在觀察企業這方面，可以將它替換為現金。懂得在景氣熱絡階段儲備現金的經營者，在金融風暴肆虐後的今天，至少可以讓企業安然度過不景氣的階段。舉例來說，美國大型家具業者 Linens’N Things宣告申請破產，這表示Bed Bath & beyond Inc. 的競爭對手又少了一位；同樣的Best Buy再也不用和Circuit City進行削價競爭了； 另外，DHL宣佈明年1月底結束美國國內業務，這代表 FedEx的北美市場不用再與它人分享。

上述是廣積糧作為被動守勢的效用，如果是主動出擊呢？以Wells Fargo & Co. (波克夏持有的富國銀行)為例，它在不景氣階段透過優良的經營模式逆勢成長，在美國金融體業正低迷之時，該間銀行的成功一直為外界津津樂道，而且Wells Fargo收購Wachovia Corp. 一案，將會替該銀行在全美21州擴展3300間分行，讓 Wells Fargo得以首度跨越密西西比河東邊的市場，面臨的挑戰也比競爭對手要少許多。

由於消費者支出銳減，所以美國零售業處在激烈的淘汰賽裡，像家庭用品連鎖店The Bombay與 Sharper Image Corp.都已經宣告結束營業，老牌百貨店 Mervyns更關門大吉，但是Kohl’s與Forever 21這二家公司，於上週五表示他們將聯手以625萬美元購得 Mervyns全美46間分店的位置，其中Kohl’s接收31家分店， Forever 21則接手剩下的15家。

因此擁有足夠現金部位的公司，在目前不景氣的階段，至少具有以下優勢：

1.藉由競爭對手的結束營業或業務大幅萎縮之際，搶佔客戶與市場佔有率

2.透過併購競爭對手，直接取得其客戶、IP、品牌與設備。

3.具備持續更新製程、設備與R&D的能力，在迎接另一波景氣來臨前搶佔更有利的位置

4.在2009年仍具有配發穩定現金股利的能力

5.可以在此時提出相對優渥的條件吸引優質人才

最後要提的是『緩稱王』這個策略。在一個寡佔或獨佔性競爭的產業中，我們經常看到的情況是….A公司以低價搶單，試圖擴大其市場佔有率，隨後競爭對手B公司提出更具吸引力的價格，挖走A公司另一個大客戶。低價搶單的狀況最常出現在以OEM為主的公司，例如NB、手機….等電子次產業。

過去處在經濟泡沫階段的日本鋼鐵業，由於資金取得容易，因此大規模擴充產能，並且用低價傾銷海外的方式搶佔市場佔有率，就算賠本也要擊垮競爭對手，這種傷敵一千自傷八百的策略，其結果就是景氣反轉後公司面臨破產窘境。

企業意圖在市場中稱王的狀況，也經常出現在新興產業當中，例如LED與太陽能產業。二年前德國的OSRAM與日本的日亞化相繼對台灣廠商授權其白光LED專利技術，台廠為了搶佔白光LED市場的龐大商機，紛紛大規模擴充產能，於由關鍵技術掌握在別人手中，加上OSRAM與日亞化對外授權的廠商逐漸增加(收取權利金並且坐山觀虎鬥，將風險轉嫁給其他廠商，其狀況類似DRAM產業中的奇夢達與爾必達)，最後導致產能大幅超出市場需求，原本的供不應求瞬間轉變成供過於求，相關廠商紛紛面臨大幅虧損的窘境。

太陽能產業中的矽晶圓與模組這二個次產業也是明顯的例子，2007年由於油價持續高漲，替代能源成為歐美國家積極補貼的項目，於是訂單突如其來的暴增。雖然太陽能的發展已經有數十年的歷史，但是油價高漲之後，太陽能產業才湧入大批的投資資金，現有模組廠的訂單都已經排到9～12個月後的情況下，新進者所需的技術與設備，取得困難度並不高，所以新加入的競爭者如過江之鯽(建廠所需時間約半年)，而上游的矽晶圓也紛紛大幅度擴充產能(建廠所需時間約二年)。

新加入與舊有的模組廠為了搶佔市場與鞏固料源，紛紛與上游矽晶圓業者簽訂價格昂貴的長期合約，而矽晶圓業者在資金與未來訂單有恃無恐的情況下，亦紛紛展開大規模擴產。然而太陽能產業發展上的突飛猛進，主要因素是高漲的油價，當經濟開始出現衰退後，持續高漲的油價已不是反映市場需求，充其量只是市場的資金在炒作罷了。

故事的發展與歷史軌跡相契合，經濟持續的衰退使得油價更大幅度的回檔，太陽能的替代能源需求逐漸褪去，相關業者原本是只管生產不管需求(因為產品只要出的來，排隊買的人一堆)，現在尋找訂單的急迫性成為廠商首要之務了。

急著稱王使得廠商在景氣熱絡階段低價搶單，抑或是大幅度擴充產能以因應未來”可能的需求”，此時廠商眼中根本無視於高築牆、廣積糧的基本功，而景氣反轉向下之後，矮牆與缺糧的窘境，迫使著它們兵敗如山倒。

2009年的選股重點就在『高築牆，廣積糧，緩稱王』這九個字，雖然08年的景氣衰退只能用慘澹二字形容，但這也提供給投資者一個絕佳的契機，因為這種情況下最容易看出城牆高築的企業，而且它們的價格也普遍低於合理價值，未來只要景氣稍稍好轉，這些企業的營運狀況將會率先衝出重圍，並且更上一層樓。

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雖然按照傳統的定義，衰退是指國內生產毛額(GDP)連續在兩個季度出現萎縮，但是在今年的12月1日，美國國家經濟研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research ; NBER)卻表示，美國經濟陷入衰退已有約一年的時間。美國國家經濟研究局的一份公告中指出，該機構下屬的商業週期測定委員會已認定美國經濟於2007年12月陷入衰退，這同時也標誌開始於2001年11月的經濟擴張期的正式結束，而2001年11月是上一次美國經濟衰退的結束時間。(註：由於對於衰退的定義不同，歐洲與日本的經濟學家認為美國是從2008年第二季才開始出現經濟衰退的)

此外該委員會警告稱，這次衰退有可能創二次大戰後最長衰退紀錄，其對經濟的破壞作用可能比自1980年以來的任何一次衰退都大。

這個訊息提供我們一個思考的方向…是否景氣高點與指數的高點，二者出現的時間是一致的？我們從美國道瓊工業指數(Dow Jones Index)、S&P 500 指數可以看到，它們最高點出現的時間在2007年的10月11日，至於Nasdaq指數則是在同年的10月31日。

從這一點似乎讓我們稍微理出一點頭緒，那就是股市是經濟的櫥窗，亦即股市會提前反映經濟景氣的狀況。這個觀念確立之後，我們再來思考衍生的幾個問題….

1. 經濟衰退的時間大概會有多久？
2. 既然股市會領先景氣衰退而下跌，那麼股市會領先景氣復甦而上漲嗎？領先的時間長度又是如何？
3. 隨之而來的復甦，腳步是又快又猛還是緩步上揚？ 

 

國家經濟研究局在這次的公告中指出，衰退是整體經濟活動持續數月顯著下滑，有關生產、就業、實際收入等方面的指標能清晰地體現出這一點。該商業週期測定委員會並不用傳統意義上的定義來衡量衰退，而是通過對持續一段時期的經濟顯著型下降作為衡量的標準，這一下降包括GDP、就業率、工業生產、銷售以及收入等指標。

這次的經濟衰退主要因素來自於金融風暴，鑑往知來：全球歷史重大金融危機面面觀 這篇文章可以提供各位參考，而各位也會發現，第三個問題根本找不到答案，因為金融危機引發的經濟衰退，其產生原因、規模、連動效果、政府政策都不盡相同，自然經濟衰退的時間也不同，短則一年左右，長可至十年左右，時間的長短視政府挽救措施而定。

我們提供讀者以下三個考量的面向予各位參考。

A.金融風暴的濫觴是衍生性金融商品，隨後引起銀行的流動性危機，然而在政府積極介入後，這個問題已經獲得十分有效的控制，(可從…衡量銀行現金需求程度的3個月美元LIBOR與隔夜指數交換利率(OIS)的Libor-OIS價差較高點大幅度下滑看出)。用更白話的方式來描述，就是這個面向如同棒球賽已經進入到第八局或第九局了。

B.金融風暴後續引發的信用卡與消費性貸款壞帳問題，目前雖然仍未有效解決，但是其規模相對於衍生性金融商品而言小了許多，其發展應該可以說進入到棒球賽的第五局。

C.消費者支出下滑所產生的需求不足問題，浮出檯面未久，可以說進入到棒球賽的第三局而已。這個面向所需解決的時間，要觀察政府刺激景氣的方式與效果而定了。

當各位思考完這三個面向後，接著再來看下面這段敘述…

自二次大戰以來，美國計出現了十次經濟衰退，平均期間為10.4個月，範圍則自1980年衰退的6個月至1981至82年間的16個月不等，如果按照這個方式來估計，那麼這次衰退期間的終點，較可能落在2009年的年中。

然而，按照國家經濟研究局的公告，這波經濟衰退實際已持續了十二個月，且尚未明顯觸底，所以持續的期間，可能會超過1973~1975年與1981~1982年這二次的衰退期間–16個月。(註：從1929年8月到1933年3月的大蕭條時期，經濟經歷了近43個月的衰退。)

從上述的角度搭配各國政府為了刺激景氣所採取的大動作來思考的話，大致會在2009年的年中之後，至於是第三季或第四季，甚至會不會拖到2010年以後？十個經濟學家會有十一個答案，各位就別費心去猜了，而且根本沒必要去猜 (請參考關於巴菲特的相關文章)。(註：2006年經濟學家群聚的某會議中舉辦了一個調查，成功預測二年後金融風暴發生的經濟學家比例低於5%，如果你自認能力強於這些專家，而且能夠每猜必中的話，大可用盡腦力去猜測未來景氣的變化)

現在，我們回過頭來看第二與第三個問題。

官方經濟數據的特徵通常是緩慢、後知後覺，永遠會與現實狀況落後一大截，比如說美國民眾已經感受好一段時間的「經濟衰退」，直到一年後才被國家經濟研究局所公告，加上股市向來反應的是前景，亦即股市的供需面來自於投資人對於未來的預期，因此股市所呈現的是領先官方經濟數據的現象，也就是所謂「股市是經濟的櫥窗」。

從1980~1984年與 1973~1976年二戰後兩次美國時間較長的經濟衰退中，失業率與 S&P 500指數走勢所呈現的是…當 S&P 500指數開始走高後，官方公佈的失業率數字才攀升到高點。顯然，歷史在告訴我們，通常在失業率飆升之前，股市已出現復甦之態。

就以1980那年的經濟衰退為例，當失業率在1982年11月攀上高峰， S&P 500 從低點反彈的幅度共計已經高達38%。從另外一份統計資料也顯示，最近數十年來，指數的低點領先GDP、失業率、銷售收入等經濟數據4～6個月不等。

所以第二個問題的答案已經有了，那就是指數會領先景氣復甦而上漲，而且領先的時間約是4～6個月。就這一點我們必須提醒各位，這裡提到的是指數而不是個股，個股有些更早領先指數做反映，有些則是落後指數做反映，因此當投資人確定景氣復甦後，才想進場買股票，恐怕有不少個股已經先行上漲超過50%了。

最後一個問題則是景氣復甦的腳步是快或慢？我們的看法偏向於緩慢這一方，因為這次金融風暴雖為主因，但是除了金融產業外，科技產業、汽車產業、塑化產業….等產業皆陷入泥淖，影響的範圍與力道相較一般的經濟衰退有所不同，所以景氣復甦的腳步應該會緩慢復甦才是。

最後，我們做了以下幾點結論，提供各位參考：

1. 股市的表現會領先經濟數據，別等到景氣復甦後才準備進場，因為屆時勢必買在相對(底部的)高點。
2. 無須預測這次景氣何時會落底，因為沒人猜的準。
3. 選股的重要性遠高於選市，對於自己不熟悉的產業與公司，勿輕易買進持有。
4. 宜以長期投資的心態來面對股價的落底與回升。
5. 此次的全球性金融風暴，極可能是你一輩子唯一遇到的一次，就如同經歷過1930年代經濟大蕭條的人目前所剩無幾一般，錯過了這次危機入市的好機會，這輩子恐怕沒有第二次機會了。

相關文章

• 價值投資法的介紹(四)
• 全球金融風暴紀事

雖然這樣的消息，在全球金融風暴肆虐與經濟不景氣的今天來看已經見怪不怪，但如果告訴你這是巴菲特掌舵的波克夏(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)公司近期表現的話，恐怕各位仍會感到十分驚訝。

圖一  波克夏股價走勢圖

即使已經被冠上了「股神」的頭銜，巴菲特的旗下公司的市場表現還是讓大家議論紛紛。除了搬出以前巴老錯過的網路泡沫和過早拋售中石油的例子外，評論家們還對他大手筆收購高盛的做法提出了質疑(波克夏以50億美元取得股息為10%的優先股，還承諾未來再耗資50億美元買進認購價格為115美元/股的認股權證)，當時高盛股價仍在百元以上，到目前為止，高盛股價已經又跌了超過四成！

另外，波克夏在9月30日以48.5億美元的價格，出售四大指數的衍生性金融商品合約給被保密的客戶，波克夏承諾在特定期限內，保障買方因標準普爾500指數(S&P 500 index) 等四大全球股市指數下跌衍生的損失，相關合約將在2019年至2027年間到期。理論上，如果合約到期時，相關指數位置低於投資者投保的位置時，波克夏將賠付大約370.4億美元，截至9月30日止，波克夏公司已減記合約價值67.3億美元(做為資產減損)。
。

因為這些合約的影響，波克夏的「信用違約交換」（credit-default swaps，簡稱CDS）價格，曾經一度上漲到接近垃圾級債券的水準(註：信用違約機率越高的公司，CDS的價格越高，反之亦然)，11月24日，巴菲特通過其秘書Debbie Bosanek發出一封郵件，信中指出波克夏2008年的年報將公佈其衍生品估值的各個方面的細節，並將論述衍生品定價公式的不足，在此之前，”我們從不用這些公式”。

巴菲特在電子郵件中解釋，如果要想波克夏全部負擔355億美元的債務損失，那麼包括S&P 500在內的四大指數必須全部跌至0。對這一債務損失的估計在9月30日本來是370億美元，由於最近的匯率波動，這一數字已經有所減少。

巴菲特真的廉頗老矣嗎？看看被尊稱為股神的巴菲特發跡歷史，我們可以發現…巴菲特正在重複35年前的故事。

1972年，越戰之後的美國再次經歷了經濟危機(物價和油價共漲、失業率與經濟衰退齊飛)，正當美國民眾呼天搶地之時，一度失意的巴菲特卻盯上了報業這個金礦，他發現擁有一家市佔率高的報刊，就好似擁有一座收費橋樑，任何過路者都必須留下買路錢。1973年開始，他悄悄地在股市上蠶食《波士頓環球》和《華盛頓郵報》。而兩報的利潤也真的達到年增長35%的奇跡，10年之後，巴菲特投入的1000萬美元增值為二億。可以想見的是，當年還未名聲大噪的巴菲特一定遭到了更多的非議！

如果所有的投資行為都和一般投資人一樣的話，巴菲特還能脫穎而出成為「股神」嗎？

其實，大多數介紹巴菲特的書籍或網路文章，都會提到巴菲特的投資原則(或投資法則)，事實上他也一直身體力行實踐著(請參閱關於巴菲特)，如果我們站在事後諸葛亮的角度，將焦點集中在價值投資法上，很明顯的是….巴菲特透過價值投資法所買進的企業，在中長期的公司營運績效與股價報酬率表現上，都令人讚賞。當然，無可諱言的是….不是每件投資案都能獲利，甚至經常資金投入不久後便面臨套牢窘境，然而時間只要拉長來看，報酬率都令投資人刮目相看(請參閱關於巴菲特 (一))

正通投資團隊認為，今年波克夏的獲利下滑注定是無可挽回了，但是它投資的相關公司，營業利潤依舊豐厚，並且可以肯定會在未來維持不變！箇中原因其實不難理解，當全球經濟景氣處在衰退階段，單一公司很難置身事外，何況波克夏投資的公司橫跨金融、保險、能源、運輸、食品….等產業，然而這些公司的競爭力與獲利能力，在目前不景氣之際，依舊是同業間的佼佼者。經濟衰退不可能永遠的持續下去，一旦景氣再度恢復成長，這些公司仍將是未來投資人所追逐的標的。

或許部分的投資人已經發現巴菲特的韜略與價值投資法的精髓，但是我們認為這始終是少數，這一點可以從目前台灣股市所呈現的狀況看出，我們將這些現象歸納為以下幾點：

1.縱使投資人贖回海外基金匯回國內，高達新台幣四千億元以上的游資，皆轉存於銀行體系中，並未進行再投資的動作。

2.市場預期這一波的景氣衰退仍未到達谷底，換言之，最壞的情況仍未出現。

3.投資人對於未來股市的樂觀悲觀比率，仍處於下跌狀態

4.外資與內資所出具的研究報告，明顯呈現調降評等、目標價的比例高於調高評等、目標價的比例。

正通投資團隊希望透過本文向讀者提醒，在過去的一年中，超過八成的投資人產生重大虧損，這些投資人如果投資的方式不改變，未來投資的結果仍將不變。

股神巴菲特這次將晚節不保？正通投資團隊給各位讀者的答案是….歷史上歷次的金融危機與經濟衰退，所產生的原因皆不盡相同，但是價值投資法卻能走過所有的逆境，這一次也將不例外。

相關文章

• 巴菲特說：Buy American. I Am.
• 關於巴菲特 (六)
• 關於巴菲特 (三)
• 關於巴菲特 (一)
• 2007年巴菲特致股東的信(Warren Buffett’s Letters To Berkshire Shareholders)
• 價值投資法的介紹(三)
• 價值投資法的介紹(二)

研究報告更新的方式是直接將更新內容附加在本頁最下方，請隨時留意是否有外資更新內容的狀況。

USI (台聚 1304) - Macquarie Research

Bracing for a difficult FY09

We reduce our target price for polyethylene (PE) producer USI to NT$7 from NT$12 after reducing our valuation of its long-term investment portfolio and reducing our earnings outlook. We believe the demand outlook has worsened. In combination with this, we believe new Middle East PE capacity next year will be a significant challenge for USI. We maintain our Underperform rating.

We maintain our Underperform rating for USI. Although its P/BV multiple has declined to 0.6x for FY08E, this is still above its 2001 trough level of 0.4x. We believe the pressures in this downturn will be greater than in 2001 and look for further downward pressure on the share price.

欲閱讀全文者請按 USI 1304 台聚 研究報告 - 麥格里

Taiwan Styrene Monomer (台苯 1310) - Macquarie Research

Very difficult outlook

We reduce our Taiwan SM target price to NT$5 from NT$11 after reducing our earnings outlook and reducing our valuation of its long-term investment portfolio. We believe the outlook for the company has deteriorated and that a decline in the global economy will place further pressure on the company and the share price. We now look for Taiwan SM to post losses in FY08–10E, rather than just in FY09E, which was our previous projection. We maintain our Underperform rating on the stock.

We maintain our Underperform rating on Taiwan SM. The stock’s P/BV trough prior to late 2007 was 0.9x in 2001, but we believe the 2009–10 period will be more challenging than 2001 and the company’s longer-term prospects have deteriorated since then in light of a shift in the industry toward larger and more integrated complexes. At our target price the stock would be at 0.5x P/BV.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Styrene Monomer 1310 台苯 研究報告 - 麥格里

Formosa Taffeta (福懋 1434) - Macquarie Research

Weighed down by investments

We reduce our target price for Formosa Taffeta to NT$15 from NT$20, primarily due to lower market values and target prices for its listed investments. We’ve also reduced our EBIT outlook, as we see a morechallenging outlook for the textile and tyre segments into which it sells. We maintain our Underperform rating.

We retain our Underperform rating for Formosa Taffeta. We believe a decline in the share price of FPCC will place further downward pressure on its share price. We also look for declining conditions ahead for its fabric and nylon tyre cord operations.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Formosa Taffeta 1434 福懋 研究報告 - 麥格里

Oriental Union Chemical (東聯 1710) - Macquarie Research

Weak demand facing new capacity
We reduce our Oriental Union Chemical (OUCC) target price to NT$11 from NT$16 after cutting our EBIT projections. We believe the demand outlook is more challenging than we had previously projected. Amid a very weak demand environment, we expect added stress to be supplied by rapidlyapproaching new ethylene glycol (EG) capacity the Middle East. We look for the combination to produce a substantial decline in OUCC’s earnings. We maintain our Underperform rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Oriental Union Chemical 1710 東聯 研究報告 - 麥格里

TSRC (台橡 2103) - Macquarie Research

A hard road ahead

We reduce our target price for synthetic rubber producer TSRC to NT$18 from NT$31 after significantly reducing our FY09 and FY10 EPS outlook and increasing the downcycle discount to sum-of-the-parts-based target price to 20% from 10%. We believe the challenges ahead for raw material suppliers to the global tyre industry have increased. We maintain our Underperform rating for TSRC.

欲閱讀全文者請按 TSRC 2103 台橡 研究報告 - 麥格里

Taiwan Autos Sector (台灣汽車產業研究報告) - Merrill Lynch Research

Government’s new policy is of limited help, in our view

Still negative on Taiwan auto industry
We maintain our negative view on Taiwan’s auto industry and reiterate our Underperform ratings on Hotai Motor and China Motor for two reasons: (1) the government’s proposed policy to save the industry appears to be of limited help, and (2) domestic vehicle demand remains fragile with no signs of recovery. We lower our PO on Hotai Motor to NT$54.5, from NT$68, due to a 14% earnings cut and reduced P/E multiple from 13x 2009E EPS to 12x 2009E EPS, which is the historical trading average. We also cut our PO on China Motor to NT$11.3, from NT$14, on 0.35x 2009E P/BV, due to a 5% earnings cut.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Auto Sector 台灣汽車產業研究報告 - Merrill Lynch

U-Ming (2606 裕民) - Merrill Lynch Research

Capesize rates capsize

PO cut 75% to NT$22.5 as capesize rates fall 99% in 6mths
Capesize rates have been the worst affected by the commodity slump, with rates plunging 99% since May. U-Ming’s focus on this segment (around 68% of its bulk capacity is in capesize vessels) is clearly negative for the stock. We cut our 2008- 10 estimates and lower our price objective from NT$91 to NT$22.50.

Earnings set to collapse as charter agreements expire
The capesize market is in crisis as large stockpiles of iron ore at Chinese ports, the credit crunch and a global recession has resulted in spot rates diving from $235K/day to just $2,800. This is well below even cash breakeven levels, as operators seek cargoes at any price. U-Ming’s long-term contracts offer only
temporary protection. We cut our 2008 estimates by 10% and 2009-10 by ~85%.

欲閱讀全文者請按 U Ming 2606 裕民 研究報告 - 美林

相關文章

• No Related Post

今天我們主要探討的是”價值“的不確定性如何影響”價格“的不確定性。

現在的有錢人代表未來也是有錢人嗎？多數人對於這個問題，會給予否定的答案，同樣的，把這個邏輯應用在公司獲利上也是如此，今年度的優異獲利表現，不代表明年度也會是如此。換句話說，今年度獲利表現不錯的公司，不代表投資這家公司的風險比較低，甚至很多情況下，投資這家公司的風險反而會比較高。

我們直接以實例來說明這個情況。

上面是兆赫(2485)最近八個年度的營收與獲利彙整表，如果我們單就每股盈餘(EPS)來觀察，這八個年度都是獲利狀態，而且最近四年的每股盈餘(EPS)呈現強勁的上升趨勢，似乎兆赫可以被歸納為獲利表現十分優異的公司。然而站在獲利穩定性的角度而言，兆赫的每股盈餘(EPS)呈現極大的不穩定性。

單就2000年與2001年的EPS而言，我們看到兆赫從3.77元快速下滑到1.22元，萎縮的比例達67.64%，換句話說，如果用簡單的本益比(PER ; P/E Ratio)評價法來衡量這家公司的價值，很顯然兆赫的價值在2001年下滑了67.64%。

上圖是兆赫2000年至2001年的股價週線圖，兆赫的股價在不到一年的時間由最高價319元下跌到42.4元，跌幅高達86.71%。

我們再回過頭來觀察2004年到2007年兆赫的EPS表現，從EPS的成長率來看，2005、2006與2007年這三個年度分別是50.5%、113.16%與132.41%，表現確實十分優異，但是如果從另一個角度來思考，這家公司的EPS成長率是否太高了？在2001年兆赫曾經出現67.64%的負成長(衰退)，甚至在2004年也出現過55.11%的負成長，雖然05~07年出現EPS的高成長，是否08年極有可能再度出現負成長呢？

以兆赫所公布的08年前三季EPS來看，前三季累計EPS為3.88元(年初有除權使股本膨脹)，還原除權息後，股價是從08年的高點100.18元下跌至目前的21.4元，跌幅高達78.64%，如下圖所示。

很顯然的因為08年的EPS成長率為負成長，所以股價做了修正，而市場預期09年EPS仍將出現負成長，所以股價被大幅度壓低。

2007年兆赫的EPS高達7.53元，很多投資人將兆赫視為獲利績優股，當股價從百元以上下跌到50元後，投資人會誤以為此時低價買進這種績優股風險很低，可是實際上兆赫跌破50元後又跌了57.2%，風險其實並不低。

一家公司的獲利成長固然是正面表現，但是太高幅度的成長，其實也隱含未來可能有大幅度的衰退，換言之，獲利的穩定性，其重要性比高幅度的獲利成長更重要，有那個投資人希望買進一家公司，去年度EPS是賺五元，今年度EPS是賠三元呢？

當然，如果你運氣好，在某一個年度賠三元之際買進，隔年度該公司獲利五元，股價上出現大幅度上漲，使你的投資獲利豐厚，這當然是好事，但是所謂的風險(不確定性)，就是你可能面臨的情境與機率，運氣好的情境是隔年獲利五元，運氣不好的情境是隔年繼續虧損，而且虧損高達七、八元甚至公司宣布破產。

投資上，倒楣的情境雖然出現的機率比順利的情境稍低，但是只要遇到一次，就足以讓許多投資人血本無歸。半年前誰認為雷曼兄弟會倒閉？誰認為保險業巨擘AIG會因為財務危機需要美國政府金援？誰猜的到今年友達的股價會從63.5元下跌到歷史新低的17.8元？誰又知道今年奇美的股價會從45.35元下跌到7.61元呢？

現在DRAM廠商的力晶、茂德、南科、華亞科等四家公司，全都被列入雞蛋水餃股，過去這都屬於傳統產業公司才會出現的情況，現在DRAM廠商全都遭遇到了，而且也深深的陷入財務危機當中。相關文章請參考DRAM 公司是不是一個好的投資標的？！、面板製造公司( TFT LCD )是一個好的投資標的？！

在此我們要強調二個很重要的投資觀念。

1.股價一定會反映基本面的狀況，價值出現高估或低估的情況，雖然持續的時間會多久無法肯定，但是能夠確定的是…高估或低估的情況勢必在一段時間後消失。站在投資的角度上，這個觀念告訴我們，如果能找到價值被低估，甚至被嚴重低估的個股來投資，其實隱含未來確定性極高的報酬率。

2.基於第一點，投資人必須尋找獲利穩定性較高的公司，因為在估計它們的價值時，獲利穩定性高隱含著估計錯誤的機率低。

從第一點我們可以說….縱使去年度或當年度某家公司的獲利(或EPS)呈現高度成長，但是獲利的不穩定性，顯示的是這家公司的價值不確定性越高，而價值的不確定性會反映在股價的中長期表現上，這將造成價格的不確定性偏高，也就是投資時面對的風險將會比較高，而不是比較低。

風險所代表的不是僅有虧損這個情境，而是投資上的獲利與虧損二種情境同步比較，講的更白話一點，高風險除了代表高報酬之外，也代表了高虧損的可能狀況，從規避風險這個角度來看，高報酬與高風險都是投資人所要避免的，只有投機才會樂於享受這樣的高風險。

相關文章

• 危機入市
• 關於巴菲特 (七)
• Taiwan TFT LCD / AU Optronics 2409 友達 / CMO 3009 奇美
• 關於巴菲特 (六)
• 關於巴菲特 (二)
• 投資的第一堂課-認識風險 (上)
• 如何衡量個股的價格風險

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC 台積電 2330) - Merrill Lynch Research

Still no signs of stabilization

Order cuts continue with falling demand
We have lowered our 2009E EPS, fair value estimate, and PO for TSMC. Wafer order cuts from customers which started in July have yet to stabilize. Our recent supply chain indicators and checks indicate wafer fab production utilization to drop to mid-50s which is approaching its 2001 trough of 40.1%. Management is
doing its best to slow the tide of cancellations but is showing limited success.

Lower 2009E EPS from NT$2.60 to NT$1.96
We have lowered our 2009E EPS by 25% from NT$2.60 (NT$0.391) to NT$1.96 ($0.298/ADR). Our base case 2009E EPS assumes a revenue decline of 22% YoY, average capacity utilization of 70%, GPM of 31%, and to reduce operating costs by 21% YoY. Our recent industry analysis of capacity, logic IC inventory, and demand continues to suggest the sector is unlikely to stabilize until 1Q09.

Deep cycles are back – lowering PO to NT$40.5
Our PO is reduced from NT$45.0 to NT$40.5 which is based on 20.6x target PE and is supported by our long-term fair value model. We have lowered our midcycle fair value from NT$70 to NT$60. The bulk of the revision comes from the sharp down-cyclical impact of 2009 and to a lesser extent from adjustment to our
long-term growth assumption (from 10.5% to 9%).

欲閱讀全文者請按 TSMC 2330 台積電

Simplo Technology Co Ltd. (新普 6121) - Merrill Lynch Research

Solid fundamentals; top pick in NB component sector
We have raised Simplo’s 2008E EPS by 7% post its better 3Q results. However, we have reduced its 2009E EPS by 5% to factor in slower NB industry growth, and also cut the PO to NT$131 (based on 11x 09E P/E). Simplo remains our top pick in the NB component space, given its compelling P/E of 8x, consistent earnings delivery and solid balance sheet (zero debt, high net cash position).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Simplo Technology 6121 新普

Nanya PCB (南電 8046) - Goldman Sachs Research

Source of opportunity
We downgrade Nanya PCB to Sell from Neutral for the following reasons: (1) the absence of NGK Spark Plug’s restructuring plans implies no upside for incremental CPU flip chip (FC) outsourcing to Nanya; (2) upon Intel’s 2ndgen. Nehalem platform launch, we expect Nanya’s Northbridge FC revenue to drain away and CPU FC business be capped by NGK; (3) Nanya PCB has been continuously loaning money to Nanya Tech, its DRAM affiliate in the group – the current balance of NT$4.9bn is 14% of Nanya PCB’s 3Q08 BV. Our new 12m target price of NT$58 is based on 7X next-12m P/E, implying 1X 2008E P/B.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Nanya PCB 8046 南電

Prime View (元太 8069) - Macquarie Research

Not out of the woods yet

Action and recommendation
Valuations look expensive relative to peers. PVI is still trading at 1.2x 2009E P/BV, while all other TFT-LCD panel stocks are below book. With PVI posting losses too, the stock may fall below its previous historical low of 0.9x in 4Q05. 

PVI’s net debt/equity is the only one among TFT-LCD panel stocks currently to be over 100%. PVI has a NT$6bn bridge loan used to finance the acquisition of the Korean fabs. To lower gearing, PVI announced in May that it planned to do a rights issue. However, the plan has been pending due to a weak stock market.
Management said at the meeting today that the plan should be finished within six months to pay back the bridge loan. Consequently, further dilution is inevitable and may overhang the stock, in our view.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Prime View 8069 元太

Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (台塑化 6505) - Goldman Sachs Research

Margin deterioration may lead to substantial net loss in 4Q08

What’s changed
Followed by the 27% mom decline in WTI oil prices in October, there were 25%-43% mom declines for various oil product prices in October. However, as the crude oil inventory cost for FPCC is based on two-thirds of the cost in the previous month and one-third of the cost in the current month, we believe this should lead to a significant net loss for FPCC in October, and expect the losses to continue into November and December if the oil price continues to fall. We remain cautious on the stock.

欲閱讀全文者請按 FPCC 6505 台塑化，另提供 Formosa Petrochemical 6505 台塑化 - MACQ 予各位一併參考。

Chemical Catalysts - Citi Investment Research

When China Sneezes

How bad is demand? — Consider: 1) Formosa Group saw inventory days rise to 15-25 QoQ in 3Q08; 2) crackers have high naphtha stock crushing spot cargo demand (naphtha spread plunged to –US$25/bbl); 3) Asian producers cut utilisation (20-50%); 4) 3Q08 China PE/PP consumption rose 2% (-1% YTD) and PVC fell 9% (-2% YTD) and domestic plastics output fell 6-22% MoM in Sept; 5) PRC finished product export growth slowing (textile, 4%, toys: 7%).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Chemical Catalysts

—————————————————————————

11/27 新增

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC 台積電 2330) - BNP Investment Research

No sign of bottoming-out yet

20% y-y decrease in our 2009 TSMC revenue estimates
We expect the foundry industry (TSMC same) will underperform the semiconductor industry. Our 2009 revenue forecast for TSMC is a 20% y-y decrease. Our 2009 EPS forecast for TSMC is TWD2.37 (down from
TWD3.99), indicating a decline of 40.5% y-y, reflected by a lower utilization rate. We believe TSMC’s share price is negatively impacted by weak 1H09 market sentiment in the near term.

欲閱讀全文者請按 TSMC 2330 台積電 研究報告 - BNP

Nanya PCB (南電 8046) - NOMURA Investment Research

CPU inventory woes to hit 1H09F margins — a repeat of 1H07?

NGK Spark Plug (NYPCB’s partner in Japan) has suffered a dramatic depletion of its competitiveness in the flip-chip (FC) industry. NGK posted a record quarterly operating loss of ¥5bn for 3Q08, citing low
yields at its new FC plant. At its analyst briefing (13 November), NGK had been expected to outline turnaround plans. We were hoping for a restructuring initiative involving more outsourcing to NYPCB, but now this looks unlikely. NGK said it planned to negotiate higher prices with its CPU customers in a bid to narrow losses. In such an environment, rising prices inevitably spell loss of market share. Moreover, in a bid to improve in-house yields, NGK could reel in orders to its internal plants, and away from NYPCB. On our estimates, NGK accounts for 14% of NYPCB’s FY08F sales, and this business is at risk of declining.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Nan Ya PCB 8046 南電 研究報告 - NOMURA

Gemtek (4906 正文) - Macquarie Investment Research

Mixed outlook ahead

Gemtek hosted its regular semi-annual analyst meeting Tuesday afternoon, providing a business update and forward-looking guidance. From the company’s comments, we learned that the retail demand for Wi-Fi devices is dropping faster than our prior expectation. We have therefore trimmed our earnings forecasts.

However, we believe IP set-top box (STB) and WiMAX product lines will continue their secular growth in 2009, keeping Gemtek resilient throughout the economic downturn. We reaffirm our Outperform rating.

Following the earnings cut, we are trimming our TP from NT$70 to NT$46.5 (10x 2009E EPS). We maintain our Outperform rating. Despite slowing momentum, with the right products and right clientele (tier-one networking OEMs), we believe Gemtek is in a better position to grow in 2009 compared with other local networking peers.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Gemtek 4906 正文 研究報告 - 麥格里 ，另一併提供 Gemtek 4906 正文 研究報告 - Morgan Stanley 予各位參考

Powertech Technology Inc (力成 6239) - JPMorgan Investment Research

DRAM market deterioration should hurt utilization in 1H09; cut to Neutral

Cut to Neutral, PT of NT$39: We downgrade Powertech to Neutral with a Jun-09 PT of NT$39 (1.2x FY09 book). We expect DRAM utilization to drop sharply in 1H09 as DRAM bit output contracts due to production cuts. We are also concerned about high exposure to Kingston recently and lengthening AR days due to support to ailing DRAM customers. Key risk is a quick recovery in DRAM demand, which does not look likely in 2009.

Strong growth in NAND Flash not enough to save 2009: Powertech should see strong growth in NAND Flash assembly from Toshiba, once Toshiba takes control of its Sandisk JV. However, Flash exposure is only
15% currently small and is not enough to offset decline in DRAM.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Powertech 6239 力成 研究報告 - JPMorgan

12/28 新增

Gemtek (4906 正文) - Morgan Stanley Investment Research

Annual Analyst Meeting
Takeaway – Not Pessimistic

We attended Gemtek’s annual analyst meeting today. Our investment thesis on Gemtek remains intact for its ongoing diversification into telco segment (40%~50%) that enables it to offset retail space slowdown in 2009E. (Refer to our update dated Nov. 20, 2008 “Better Positioning Amid the Downturn”.) While near-term share price volatility is likely to remain high, along with the macro turmoil, we continue to rank Gemtek as our preferred name in Taiwan networking space. We believe Gemtek will weather the downturn on better positioning and healthy balance sheet plus, its wireless broadband integrated product offerings should allow Gemtek to catch the upcoming triple play trend in long run. Current valuations of 7/8x of ‘08/09E or 1x P/B for ‘09E. We retain our OW rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Gemtek 正文 4906 研究報告 - Morgan Stanley

Formosa Plastics (台塑 1301) - Goldman Sachs Research

Recent rebound in product prices seems to be only temporary

What’s changed
We note that the market has turned more positive on FPC’s December sales due to the 5% price rebound in PVC in the past two weeks as well as FPC’s recent sales volume increase in PE. However, we think that the price and sales volume increases are only limited to these specific products and are due to short-term inventory re-stocking, and do not represent a recovery in end demand. Therefore, we think the price and sales volume increases are temporary only. Our channel checks also indicate that most chemical companies and their end customers are trying to lower inventory before the Chinese New Year..

欲閱讀全文者請按 Formosa Plastics 1301 台塑 研究報告 - 高盛

Compal Communications (華寶 8078) - Goldman Sachs Research

One of the few bright spots within handset sector; maintain Buy

What’s changed
Despite low order visibility and earnings uncertainty across the handset supply chain, our industry checks continue to indicate a positive trend for Compal Comm’s (CCI) improvement in customer diversification and
product offering expansion over the next 12 months.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Compal Communications 8078 華寶 研究報告 - 高盛

Foundry - Morgan Stanley Research

The Foundry Floorplan – December 2008: Not Such a Happy New Yea

Conclusion: As we close in upon year-end, the sounds of the holidays are dulled while the specter of demand flits through the cold foundry halls. Things continue to get worse, and in this month’s Foundry Floorplan, we once again revise our foundry assumptions for 4Q08 and 2009, taking into account foundry guidance cuts and continued macro deterioration.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Foundry 研究報告 - Morgan Stanley

—————–01/20 新增——————-

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC 台積電 2330) - BNP Investment Research

4Q08 Result Preview
Maintain HOLD; TP at TWD42

We maintain our HOLD rating on TSMC as we do not have a clear visibility into its client orders (after February). Our 1Q09 utilization rate forecast for TSMC is 38% for 1Q09, which is the lowest in its history.
On the other hand, TSMC’s valuation is also not too attractive. Our TP on TSMC is TWD42, based on a 1.8x P/BV.

欲閱讀全文者請按 TSMC 2330 台積電 研究報告 - BNP ，另一併提供 TSMC 2330 台積電 研究報告 - MACQ 與 TSMC 2330 台積電 研究報告 - 德銀 予各位參考

Nanya PCB (南電 8046) - MACQ Investment Research

Looking for a better valuation

We do not believe NYPCB will be immune to the deteriorating FC demand and continuous pricing pressure from major customers. Despite the resulting earnings erosion, we believe NYPCB should survive the downturn. Also, we believe it is positioned to expand market share once FC demand improves with Intel’s new platform launches. Compared with its regional peers, NYPCB is trading at a discount, with higher earnings quality and attractive dividend yields (9–14%). Our TP of NT$61.2 (previously NT$100) is derived from its trough valuation of 9x 2009E PER.

欲閱讀全文者請按 8046 南電 研究報告 - MACQ

Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (台塑化 6505) - Macquarie Research

Margin deterioration may lead to substantial net loss in 4Q08

What’s changed
Followed by the 27% mom decline in WTI oil prices in October, there were 25%-43% mom declines for various oil product prices in October. However, as the crude oil inventory cost for FPCC is based on two-thirds of the cost in the previous month and one-third of the cost in the current month, we believe this should lead to a significant net loss for FPCC in October, and expect the losses to continue into November and December if the oil price continues to fall. We remain cautious on the stock.

欲閱讀全文者請按 6505 台塑化 研究報告 - MACQ

Formosa Group (台塑集團) - Merrill Lynch Research

Formosa 4Q08 preview : Reiterate Underperform

Record 4Q losses likely at Formosa; 20% risk to 2009E
All four Formosa affiliates are expected to post net losses in 4Q08 (Table 1), due to the top-line collapse from buyers’ inventory destocking and inventory losses from oil price declines. There could be about 20% downside risk to our estimates and the market consensus, which have been cut 30-40% since late November. If 2009 margins stay on track with our estimate, with the low base set in 2008, we expect around a 20% downside risk to our 2009 estimates.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Formosa Group 台塑集團 研究報告 - 美林

2009 02 25 新增

Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (台塑化 6505) - J.P. Morgan Research

Reduce holdings ahead of new Ethylene capacity

Still too expensive on a regional basis: FPCC is currently trading at 2.3x BV, or at a significant premium to its Asian petrochem and refining peers. With 3m tons of new Ethylene capacity coming on-stream in the
next two months from the Middle East and China, we foresee further pressure on Ethylene spreads in 2Q09 after the recent rebound in 1Q. We advise investors to reduce holdings ahead of the new capacity.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Formosa Petrochemical 6505 台塑化 研究報告 - JPMorgan

Nanya PCB (南電 8046) - Goldman Sachs Investment Research

Likely bottom in 1Q; outlook shadowed by key swing factors

Nanya PCB reported dismal Jan-09 sales result at NT$967mn (down 49% mom and 74% yoy), representing only 16% of our original 1Q09 revenue estimate. On the other hand, Nanya PCB’s alliance partner NGK Spark Plug recently has cut its guidance and suggested that its flip chip (FC) line may see widened operating loss to ¥8 bn for the Mar-09 quarter.

欲閱讀全文者請按 8046 南電 研究報告 - 高盛

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC 台積電 2330) - Citi Research

Buy: Likely to Beat Over-cut Guidance; We See Earlier Breakeven

Dips enhance buying opportunity — As we believe the foundry-cycle trough will pass soon and TSMC seems to have over-cut its trough-quarter guidance, we reiterate our Buy (1L) rating and target of NT$55. TSMC, along with MediaTek, SEC and SPIL, are top picks in our Asia Pac Semi and TFT-LCD portfolio.

Rush orders benefiting 1Q09 and should fast-forward breakeven — Benefiting from comm and LCD IC customers’ rush orders, coupled with a more favorable FX rate, TSMC may beat its over-cut trough-cycle guidance by posting a 40- 45% qoq sales decline (vs. guidance of a 46-50% qoq decline) and op margin
of -10% to -15% (vs. guidance of -15% to -19% and gross margin of 5-9%, vs. earlier guidance of 1-5%). This might help TSMC return to breakeven 1-2 months earlier than previously expected by us as well as consensus.

欲閱讀全文者請按 TSMC 2330 台積電 研究報告 - 花旗

———————-6/23 2009—————————–

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC 台積電 2330) - Citi Research

Management Reshuffle

Quick Comment - Morris Chang back as CEO.
TSMC announced today that Morris Chang, founder and Chairman of the company, would resume the CEO
position and take a more active role in the company. Current CEO Rick Tsai will serve as President of the
New Business Development Organization, with a focus on green energy. Some of the details given at the press conference:

欲閱讀全文者請按 2330 台積電 研究報告-MS

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Once upon a time in a place overrun with monkeys, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each. The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest, and started catching them.

從前有一個到處都是猴子地方，一名男子出現向村民宣布，他將以每隻十元的價錢購買猴子。村民瞭解附近有很多猴子，他們走進森林開始抓猴子。

The man bought thousands at $10 and as supply started to diminish, they became harder to catch, so the villagers stopped their effort.

該名男子花了數千美元購買每隻十塊錢的猴子，猴子數量因此開始減少，而村民們也越來越難抓到猴子，因此他們不再熱衷抓猴子賺這十塊錢了。

The man then announced that he would now pay $20 for each one. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. But soon the supply diminished even further and they were ever harder to catch, so people started going back to their farms and forgot about monkey catching.

該名男子隨後宣布，他將出價每隻猴子20美元。這又讓村民們重新開始努力抓猴子。但很快供應量變得更少，他們幾乎很難再抓到了，因此人們開始回到自己的農場，繼續耕作，慢慢淡忘了抓猴子賺錢這件事。

The man increased his price to $25 each and the supply of monkeys became so sparse that it was an effort to even see a monkey, much less catch one.

這名男子於是增加價格到每隻25美元，但是猴子的供應變得更稀少，再怎麼努力都很難見到一隻猴子，更別談抓猴子了。 

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys for $50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on his behalf.

該名男子現在宣布，每隻猴子他出價50美元！然而這時候他離開了，去城裡辦一些事，現在他的助手代表他繼續從事購買猴子的業務。

While the man was away the assistant told the villagers. ‘Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has bought.  I will sell them to you at $35 each and when the man returns from the city, you can sell them to him for $50 each.’

這名男子離開後，助理告訴村民，看看先前該男子向你們購買，目前還在大籠子裡的這些猴子，我每隻用35美元賣給你們，等該名男子從城裡回來，你們可以將它們以每隻50美元賣給他。

The villagers rounded up all their savings and bought all the monkeys.

村民們匯集了所有的積蓄，向這個助理購買了全部的猴子。 

They never saw the man nor his assistant again

他們從此再也沒有見到這名男子和他的助理了。  

and once again there were monkeys everywhere.

村子裡又再次變成到處都是猴子的地方。

Now you have a better understanding of how the stock market works.

現在你該更進一步了解，股票市場是如何運作的了。

建議你看完之後別太快下結論，想一想你在股市的失敗經驗，然後再看一遍這則寓言，你將有新一層的體會，如果你肯多花十分鐘再次仔細閱讀每個字，你會真正的發現….股市真的就是如此！

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Z-Score模型的建立：

歐特曼教授先從歷史財務報表的資料中，建立22個財務變數，再以MDA(multiple discriminant analysis)法篩選出最重要的五個指標變數，分別是….

1. 營運資金佔總資產比率 [=營運資金÷總資產 =(流動資產 - 流動負債) ÷ 總資產 ] ，以X1表示
2. 保留盈餘佔總資產比率 [=保留盈餘總金額÷總資產]，以X2表示，為五個變數中最重要的一個
3. 息前稅前淨利佔總資產比率 [=EBIT÷總資產 = (稅前淨利+利息費用)÷總資產]，以X3表示
4. 普通股市值對負債比率 [=普通股市場價值÷總負債]，以X4表示
5. 總資產周轉率 [=銷貨收入÷總資產]，以X5表示

Z-Score的計算公式為….

Z = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 +0.999X5

利用上述公式可計算出一家公司的Z-Score，若….

1.81 < Z-Score < 2.675 ，則屬於極有可能破產(Bankruptcy)的範圍，預估一年內破產的準確度達94%

Z-Score < 1.81，則預估一年內破產的準確度達100%

Z-Score > 2.99，則預估一年內不會破產的準確度達100%

1.81 < Z-Score < 2.99，則屬於灰色地帶

要特別注意的是…該研究的公司樣本是以製造業為主，而且資產規模介於70萬美元至2590萬美元之間，預測期間為一年，若預測期間改為二年，則Z-Score低於2.675時，預測該公司會破產的準確度將降低為72%，當預測期間拉長到5年時，預測該公司會破產的準確度將降低到只剩36%。另外，上述的公式與判斷標準並不表示一定適用於非製造業或資產規模較大的公司。

歐特曼教授於2000年發表了另一篇論文(PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS OF COMPANIES:REVISITING THE Z-SCORE AND ZETA® MODELS)，在該文中將樣本資料更新到1999年，該研究中他將樣本群依照時間分為1969~1975年、1976~1995年、1997~1999年等三類，若使用Z-Score的原始公式及2.675的臨界分數，預估公司會破產的準確度將介於82%~94%，因此他建議使用者將臨界分數由2.675降低到1.81會較為適合。

政治大學金融所沈中華教授於2004年在經濟日報撰文表示….

由於目前會計制度是採用應計基礎，即使貨出去而錢尚未收到，公司也可記帳成營收增加，更離譜的是，有時只要訂單來了，公司尚未開工，也可記營收增加。 在這兩種情況下，應收帳款都會同比例增加，所以當營收增加，未必有真的銷售，它的增加可能全反映在應收帳款的同步增加，而沒有現金收入。 然而，營收增加全來自應收帳款增加，本身並不代表這公司有問題，否則會推論出只有現金交易才合理。

我自己研究這問題，認為營收來自應收帳款會產生問題的時機，只有在應收帳款拖太久，又未打消，我們才應質疑公司可能正在做假，此時，盈餘有一部分也有問題，即營收及盈餘品質均不好!

所以在台灣，或任何地方，直接用美國發展的Z-score方法，可能要考慮營收的品質或真實性。

例如，如何將誇大的營收進行抵減我建議一個簡單方法，但詳細的作法且必須考慮產業特性、景氣循環及其他等因素，則不在此詳述。

我簡單建議的方法是當應收帳款超過60天，則將帶入Z-score的營收減其1/5 ; 當應收帳款超過90天，則將帶入Z-score的營收減其1/2;當應收帳款超過120天，則將帶入Z-score的營收減其4/5，這抵減反映公司可能收不回應收帳款，或原先登錄的營收是假的，所以抵減即是對品質不好的營收的一項懲罰。

我將這觀念進行簡單驗證，雖然這是一個小小改變，但我卻發現效果驚人。 如果使用原始營收代入公式計算Z-score，博達的財務危機出現在92年，用調整後的營收代入公式計算Z-score法，則危機出現在91年，雖然只是一年，但它對投資人警訊應有助益。

(註：沈教授的方式可供各位讀者參考，不過這種方式仍屬製造業較為適用，而各位亦可使用歐特曼教授改良之Z”-Score模型的公式，內容詳見下述)

Z-Score模型的修正 - ZETA Model：

歐特曼教授於1977年在 Journal of Banking & Finance 發表了另一篇論文 (Zeta Analysis: A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations)，與Z-Score模型不同的是，ZETA信用風險模型加入大資產規模的樣本(製造業平均資產規模在1億，非製造業則低於2千萬)，並將非製造業(零售)納入，相同的是都以歷史財務報表的資料為基礎，建立27個財務變數，再透過統計方法推導出7個指標變數，分別是….總資產報酬率 (EBIT÷總資產)、5~10年資產報酬率估計的標準誤(代表盈餘穩定性)、利息保障倍數 (EBIT÷利息費用)、累積獲利能力 (保留盈餘÷總資產)、流動比率 (流動資產÷流動負債)、普通股市價比率 (普通股市價總值÷總資本)、總資產等。

另外，ZETA信用風險模型還考慮到財報準則的修正與財報附註項目(租賃資本化、其他負債與其他資產以淨值計算、以合併報表的資料進行分析、剔除商譽與無形資產、將研發費用與利息資本化部分視為費用處理)。

整體來說，ZETA信用風險模型用來判斷破產公司的概念，和之前的Z-Score模型的精神類似，都是以財務報表的內容來分析公司的信用風險。無論是ZETA或Z-Score都適用於破產發生前1年的樣本，ZETA預估會破產的公司，精確度高達96.2%，預估不會破產的公司，精確度則為89.7%，Z-Score則為93.9%與97%，但ZETA在分析上，可將精確性拉長到2～5年之前，ZETA在前5年預估破產公司的準確度還可達到69.8%，不會破產公司的精確度可達到82.1%，但Z-Score就降到只剩36％，歐特曼教授表示，可能是因為ZETA模型中，樣本抽取更符合當時狀況，也包括更多不同產業公司，而Z-Score只使用了製造業的樣本，在加入非製造業樣本後才使得準確度降低。

Z-Score模型的修正 ： Z’-Score ：

將X4中的普通股權益市值修正為普通股權益的帳面價值後，發現變數X4的係數會降低，但是模型可靠度也會稍微降低，且臨界分數必須修正至1.23

Z-Score模型的修正 ： Z”-Score ：

加入非製造業公司的樣本後，沿用Z’-Score的方式，X4變數使用普通股權益的帳面價值，為了極小化產業效應，並將銷售÷總資產這個變數(X5)剔除，新的Z-Score Model成為Z” = 6.56 (X1)+ 3.26 (X2) + 6.72 (X3) + 1.05 (X4) ，這個新模型對於資產融資較為頻繁的產業特別有用(例如租賃資本化)。

上述二篇論文，若要閱讀全文者請按….

Financial Ratio , Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy (資料來源：JSTOR)

PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS OF COMPANIES:REVISITING THE Z-SCORE AND ZETA® MODELS (資料來源：New York University)

由於Z-Score模型是針對公司破產與不破產的預測，偏向於被動防守這個面向，若對投資上的主動攻擊面向有興趣者，請參考正通投資團隊所撰寫之 財務金融 相關文章

相關文章

• 如何閱讀財務報表

研究報告的更新方式為….增列於本文最下方！

Lite-On Tech (光寶 2301) - Macquarie Research

Positive momentum

Lite-On Tech (LOT) announced great results. 3Q08 EPS was 30% above our EPS estimate at NT$0.94 (+50% QoQ, -8% YoY, bonus adjusted).
Perlos also substantially beat expectations, its operating margin improved from 2.6% in 2Q08 to 6.7%, compared to our estimate of 3.0%.
A second buyback of 40m shares was announced. In total, LOT will buy back 70m shares or 3% of the total outstanding shares, for employee bonuses.

Our view vs consensus: LOT is one of our top, long picks in Taiwan given its solid balance sheet, healthy cashflows, improving fundamentals, and cheap valuations. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, we are happy to see LOT execute well in a difficult environment and encourage investors to notice the positive changes taking place at this company.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Lite-on Tech 2301 光寶 研究報告

Silitech Technology (閎輝 3311) - Macquarie Research

Better 3Q08, but gloomier 2009

We maintain Neutral rating on Silitech. We lowered our target price from NT$94 (14x 2009E EPS) to NT$72.5 (12x 2009E EPS). Given the weaker industry outlook ahead and the likely EPS decline in 2009, we expect
Silitech’s valuation to be de-rated.

When to revisit? For the long run, we still like Silitech’s leading industry position and superior technology. We think investors might revisit Silitech should there be better 1H09 order visibility and/or product diversification (into light-metal casings) that enables Silitech to gain more tier-one client orders.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Silitech 3311 閎輝 研究報告

D-Link (友訊 2332) - Citi Investment Research

Buy: Better Op Margins in 3Q08; More Conservative 09 Forecast

Our view vs. consensus — While consensus is looking for a sharp decline in 2009E and is worried about weaker margins, we think the company’s exposure to emerging market telco projects and growing presence in US/Europe SMEs will help D-Link cope with the slowdown. We expect D-Link’s unit shipments to be flat in 2009, while sales and earnings are likely to decline by 5-7% yoy in 2009E, driven mainly by blended ASP declines. In addition, margins should also be higher for the company’s SME solutions due to fewer customer rebates.

欲閱讀全文者請按 D-Link 2332 友訊 研究報告 - 花旗 ，另提供 D-Link 2332 友訊 研究報告 - 高盛 予各位一併參考。

ZyXEL Communications Corp. (合勤 2391) - Goldman Sachs Research

Disappointing 3Q result; but visibility higher on carrier exposure

ZyXEL reported 3Q parent results, while consolidated results are not available yet. 3Q earnings of NT$151mn was well below our estimate by 50%. Although 3Q sales were in line with our estimate, operating profit was 47% lower than our estimate. We attribute the lower than expected GM / higher opex ratio to fierce competition in the networking space and ZyXEL’s inefficient opex control. The non-operating loss was roughly in line with our estimate. Forex loss impact due to Euro depreciation was mitigated by the reverse of inventory loss and bad debts provision.

ZyXEL is trading at 13X ‘09E EPS, below its historical trough of 15X. Downside risk for the share price could be limited in the near term, given ZyXEL’s strong cash position (2Q08 cash is 27% of 10/28 market cap) and low valuation.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Zyxel 2391 合勤 研究報告

Tripod Technology Corp (健鼎 3044) - Macquarie Research

Conservative outlook

We reaffirm our Outperform rating, but reduce our TP from NT$103 to NT$60 to reflect earnings estimate reductions and a lower valuation multiple due to weak market sentiment and limited earning growth.

Tripod’s share price declined by 37% and underperformed the Taiex by 11% during the past month due to limited liquidity and the company’s exposure to DRAM and TFT. We believe the stock has been oversold at less than a 6x PER (lower end of PCB peer trading range), despite Tripod’s strong execution, low-cost structure and improving balance sheet. Tripod is our top pick in the PCB space, and our TP NT$60 is derived from its average 2008/09 ROE-g/COE-g with a 30% discount, implying a 2008/09E PER of 8.5x.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Tripod Technology 3044 健鼎 研究報告

UMC (聯電 2303) - BNP Research

New target price of TWD8.80
We lower our target price to TWD8.80 (TWD10.60 earlier), which is based on 0.6x P/BV from the previous 0.7x. Our new valuation reflects: 1) 15% valuation de-rating of foundry manufacturers in the past four
weeks; and 2) UMC’s potential risk from ProMOS investment. We maintain HOLD for UMC. We believe UMC’s ROE will fall further during the downcycle.

Downside risk during downturn
We believe UMC is likely to underperform its 1Q09 outlook. Our 1Q09 revenue forecast for UMC is 8% q-q down. We believe UMC’s ROE could fall further in the 4Q08-1Q09 downcycle. We believe UMC is likely to
see further significant order cuts because of its weaker position in foundry industry (we notice its market share at 65nm process is behind Chartered).

欲閱讀全文者請按 UMC 2303 聯電 研究報告 - BNP ，另提供 UMC 2303 聯電 研究報告 - 美林、UMC 2303 聯電 研究報告 - 德銀 予各位一併參考。

Winbond Electronics (華邦電 2344) - Morgan Stanley Research

Time to Exit Commodity DRAM

Quick Comment: Impact on our views. Winbond may exit commodity DRAM as its technology source
Qimonda will be exiting. Going forward, Winbond aims to de-emphasize commodity DRAM and focus on niche memory. In our view, Winbond should preserve its cash and consider fab divestments to become a leading fabless memory maker to differentiate in Taiwan DRAM. As all Taiwan DRAM makers are trading below replacement costs, there would be more than sufficient quality 12” DRAM fabs in Taiwan for Winbond to leverage on its niche memory designs.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Winbond Electronics 2344 華邦電 研究報告

Teco Co (東元 1504) - Macquarie Research

Taiwan High Speed Rail risk

We provide an update on Teco’s business operations and clarify its Taiwan High Speed Rail (2633 TT, NT$4.9, Non-Rated) issue following China Steel’s (2002 TT, NT$20.6, UP, TP: 27) write-off on its THSR investment.

Currently, Teco is trading at 7.7x 2009E PER and 0.4x P/BV. The cheap valuation makes Teco look interesting to watch; however, we suggest investors wait until the market stabilizes and the THSR write-off risk winds down. We retain Outperform with target price of NT$13.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Teco 1504 東元 研究報告 - MACQ ，另提供 Teco 1504 東元 研究報告 - 高盛 予各位一併參考。

11/27 新增

Tripod Technology Corp (健鼎 3044) - NOMURA Research

Hibernation

Despite its strong cost competitiveness, execution, and market-share gains in HDI and NB PCBs, Tripod is not immune to macro woes, especially when its major segments — DRAM, TFT-LCD and HDD (accounting for a combined 57% of FY08F sales) — are facing severe oversupply/slowdown. Initiating at NEUTRAL.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Tripod 3044 健鼎 研究報告 - NOMURA

12/28 新增

ZyXEL Communications Corp. (合勤 2391) - Goldman Sachs Research

Relatively defensive but macro headwind remains strong, Neutral

We now assume ZyXEL’s 4Q08 sales will decline 10% qoq as our channel checks suggest ZyXEL is  experiencing a shipment delay from an Asian telecom company. We have also trimmed our 4Q GM  assumption to 30.9% (from 32.3%) due to its worse product mix in the quarter (heavier reliance on carrier business).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Zyxel 2391 合勤 研究報告 - 高盛

D-Link (友訊 2332) - Goldman Sachs Research

Struck by slowing emerging markets and FX, maintain Neutral

Our channel checks show a steady worsening of end demand, even in the Christmas season, and D-Link mgmt now expects Dec sales to continue to trend down. As a result, we now expect a high teens qoq decline in DLink’s 4Q sales and a deteriorating operating margin, and forecast a 5.5% sales decline in 2009.

欲閱讀全文者請按 D-Link 2332 友訊 研究報告 - 高盛

01/20新增

D-Link (友訊 2332) - Citi Research

Buy: Government Projects to Resume After Near-term Shortfall

Lowering target to NT$30 from NT$34 — We are lowering D-Link’s target price to NT$30, equating to 1.0-1.1x book, to reflect weaker sales and earnings outlooks due to project delays in emerging markets and concerns over potential losses in 1H09. But we expect infrastructure projects, less focus on the US and
Europe retail segments, and lowered OPEX should help D-Link’s operating margin recover gradually by 2H09E.

欲閱讀全文者請按 D-Link 2332 友訊 研究報告 - 花旗

01/20新增

Winbond Electronics (華邦電 2344) - Morgan Stanley Research

Time to Pick a Side

Quick Comment – Conclusion: Since the 2000 tech bubble burst, Winbond has been in loss making with the
exception of 2004/06 industry upturn. 2009 semiconductor industry decline will be the worst ever in history, dwarfing the 31% Y/Y decline in 2001 given global recession. Winbond’s 12” fab has the smallest
scale in Taiwan but it’s ironically the busiest - producing all kinds of memories at all geometries - commodity, specialty, mobile, NOR, etc; 90/80/75/65 nm, etc; trench, buried wordline, etc. As fab capacity is now in excess, Winbond should restructure to become a fabless memory maker that creates shareholder value on product design not opportunistic fab return of commodity cycle. In the deepest ever DRAM downturn, we believe management needs to devise the right exit strategy before the situation becomes worse. Management is now expressing openness to 1) DRAM consolidation and 2) fab spin offs to become fabless design house - we view this as a step in the right direction.

欲閱讀全文者請按 WINBOND 2344 華邦電 研究報告

UMC (聯電 2303) - Goldman Sachs Research

Xilinx to switch a foundry partner at 45nm; maintain Sell rating

It is not a surprise to see Xilinx switching foundry supplier (see our report “Foundry competition in 2009 (2): foundry customer’s perspective” dated 12/17/2008). Xilinx is likely the only leading semiconductor  company that depends on UMC for manufacturing technology. We believe that Xilinx is cautious on UMC’s long-term commitment and ability to drive yield curve in light of the escalating development cost. According to its 10K, Xilinx sold its remaining UMC holdings in 1Q08. We would watch closely on who
would become the main technology supplier to Xilinx at 32nm. Meanwhile, we note that, five years after inception, Samsung’s foundry business has only three leading edge customers – Qualcomm, Marvell, and Xilinx, due to concerns over its IP protection, low yield, and potential termination of foundry business. We believe that Samsung is unlikely to become a meaningful foundry competitor anytime soon for the above reasons.

欲閱讀全文者請按 UMC 2303.聯電 研究報告 - 高盛

相關文章

• 由Buy Side與Sell Side建立閱讀外資研究報告的正確態度
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• 南科 / 華亞科 / 奇美 / 友達 / 群創 / 華映 / 彩晶 / 面板產業
• 美律 / 華碩 / 茂迪 / 中美晶 / 鴻準 / 可成 / 勝華 / 台肥 / 熒茂
• Taiwan hardware signals / Taiwan Fabless / 鴻海 / 仁寶
• 中信金 / 國泰金 / 玉山金 / 新光金 / 台新金 / 第一金 / 中壽 / 彰銀
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Taiwan: Energy: Alternative Energy - Goldman Sachs Research

Macro concerns, solar module prices feel the heat; initiate on 2 cos

Downgrade E-Ton to Neutral, maintain Neutral on Motech, SAS We lower E-Ton (3452.TWO) to Neutral from Buy as its high leverage has become a cause for concern in the current credit environment. However, we
still like the company as it continues to differentiate itself by producing highefficiency cells. In our view, Motech’s (6244.TWO) gross margins have bottomed in 3Q as the percentage of cheaper long-term contracts increases. We expect margin expansion to continue in 2009E, but will be limited by the maximum percentage of long-term contracts, which we estimate at 50%.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Alternative Energy 太陽能產業報告

Taiwan Cement Sector - Citi Investment Research

Long-Term Value at End of Tunnel

Taiwan cement companies corrected sharply along with the derating of global peers and the selling from foreign investors. Despite the tough operating environment in the next few months, we still believe that their current share prices offer long-term investment value if looking at their P/B or EV/ton, and downside is limited. We urge investors not to overly focus on the weaker cement market, but also to consider lower coal costs and cheaper valuation. We maintain Buy on both names but cut target prices and earnings.

China to bottom in 1H09 — We began to see price declines in some regions in China into the typically strong 4Q mainly due to the slowing property market. We forecast the market will remain cold until 1H09, when the government’s new policies to support the property market start to take effect, and local
governments push for faster closure of outdated plants.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Cement Sector 水泥產業研究報告

Taiwan property sector - Macquarie Research

Potential inventory losses in 2009

We believe there could be potential inventory losses in 2009 after the stricter accounting method on inventory value assessment to start effective on 1 January 2009, according to the revised Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No 10.

While the change in accounting method will not influence our NAV as it has no major impact on cashflows, it will negatively influence the dividends as DPS is usually capped by accounting EPS. It will thus have some negative impact on share prices as some investors are attracted by the high dividend yield of developers. In addition, developers with a higher portion of land acquired after 2007 would be more vulnerable to property price decline.

We remain cautious on the Taiwan property sector, given the weak industry outlook amid global economic slowdown and higher financial risk in tightening liquidity.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan property Sector

Gintech (昱晶 3514)- Macquarie Research

Doing a good job

We admit Gintech is a high-risk, high-return stock. We believe its share upside outweighs its downside. We are cutting our target price to NT$210 from NT$288, as we lower our PER multiple to 8x from 11x to reflect in macro headwinds. Risk: Although we have put conservative assumptions on our estimate and global subsidy spending as a whole (only US$2.5-3bn), we still cannot rule out that the rising credit crisis may further inhibit global renewable energy demand.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Gintech 3514 昱晶 研究報告

Taiwan Cement (台泥 1101) - Goldman Sachs Research

Improving op income on higher ASP; reduce TP on lower EV/t, NAV

TCC announced 3Q08 results largely in line with our expectations, with sales down 2% qoq to NT$6.2bn, GP up 50% qoq to NT$547mn, OP increased 131% qoq to NT$251mn, and NI declined 51% qoq to NT$1.1bn. 1Q08-3Q08 NI represented 70% of our 08E NI estimate. We attribute the higher GP and OP to higher ASP in 3Q08, while sales volumes declined during the period. Meanwhile, we believe the significant qoq drop in NI was mainly due to the lack of a sizeable disposal gain, as was incurred in 2Q08.

We lower our EV/t assumption we use to value the core business to US$45/t from US$60/t to reflect the trough cycle valuation and cut our 09E NAV per share to NT$24.7 from NT$31.6. We also widen our discount to NAV to 25% from 20% to reflect rising investor concern over the volatility of its non-listed equity investment. As a result, we reduce our 12-m SOTPbased TP to NT$18.5 from NT$25.0. While the historical trough P/B is 0.3x, we do not think TCC will trade at such a discount given the cement market
consolidation over the past few years and stable earnings contribution from its key subsidiary, Hoping Power (Private).

欲閱讀全文者請按 1101 台泥 研究報告

Goldsun Development and Construction (國產 2504) - Goldman Sachs Research

Improving 3Q08 results given higher ASP and investment income

Goldsun just announced its 3Q08 detailed results, with sales of NT$2.9bn, down 2% qoq; gross profit of NT$259mn, up 15% qoq; operating profit of NT$126mn, up 45% qoq; and net earnings of NT$357mn, up 72%. 1Q08- 3Q08 net earnings of NT$767mn has reached 77% of our 2008E net earnings estimate. We attribute the improving 3Q08 results to higher ASP and investment income in 3Q08.

We lower our EV/t assumption we use to derive core business value to US$45/t from US$60/t to reflect the trough cycle valuation and lower our 09E NAV per share estimates to NT$9.4 from NT$11.9. We widen our
discount to NAV to 25% from 20%, given rising investor concerns over volatility of non-listed equity investment values. As such, we cut our 12-m SOTP-based TP to NT$7.0 from NT$9.5. We maintain our Neutral rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 2504 國產 研究報告

11/15 新增太陽能產業與水泥產業的外資研究報告如下

Taiwan Solar View - Citi Investment Research

Cautious on Demand Growth and Falling Prices

Key takeaways — We recently visited several solar names in Taiwan – Gintech (昱晶 3514), Motech (茂迪 6244), Solartech, Green Energy(綠能 3519) – and overall the theme has been on concerns over: 1) weaker bookings by customers, and lower ASP due to USD/EUR movement; 2) difficulty in fundraising for capacity expansion; 3) using longer-term contract to secure Poly-Si supply and long-term downstream contracts; and 4) larger players pursuing vertical integration to save costs.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Solar Sector

Taiwan Cement Sector - Merrill Lynch Research

Better ST sentiment; retain LT negative view

POs up on better China operation; Underperform retained
We raise our POs on Asia Cement (ACC; B-3-8; NT$23.60) and Taiwan Cement (TCC; B-3-8; NT$20.05) to NT$19.1 and NT$17.9, mainly to reflect better operations in China due to China’s NT$4tn domestic stimulus project. We expect the market to react positively to this news in the short term. ACC will benefit more than TCC in our view, as ACC has a good location in Sichuan province while TCC’s major focus, Guangdong province, continues to suffer from oversupply. We retain our LT Underperform ratings given the weak export market and sluggish domestic demand hindered by gloomy property market conditions.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Cement Sector - 美林，另提供法國巴黎證券的台灣水泥產業研究報告予各位一併參考，欲閱讀者請按 Taiwan Cement Industry-BNP。

11/27新增

Solar Technology (太陽能產業研究報告)- NOMURA Research

Not safe to look up yet

The sharp global slowdown has suddenly obscured the outlook for the solar technology sector. With demand in Europe (77% of FY08F solar demand) expected to contract severely, we expect to see reductions in solar module ASPs of 19% q-q in 4Q08 and 13% q-q in 1Q09. Inventory will pile up and drag utilisation to a bottom in 1Q09. Pricing will remain under pressure, in our view, as the poly-silicon market looks set to tip into oversupply in 1H09. But this will begin the transition that will allow the industry’s long-term growth prospects to shine through again. We look for PV module ASP to halve from 3Q08 to 4Q10, at which point solar power will hit grid parity in select locations, stimulate price-elastic demand and attract a new class of marginal buyer — the utilities. Meanwhile, falling industry margins in FY09 will push solar companies to
increase cell efficiency to lower cost, allowing silicon usage per watt to fall by 20.5% between 3Q08 and 4Q10. However, for the next 12 months, it is almost a total eclipse of earnings growth for the sector. Suntech is our only BUY as superior cell efficiency gains should support earnings growth of 14.2% y-y in FY09 and 68.7% y-y in FY10.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Solar sector 太陽能產業 研究報告 - NOMURA

06/23 2009 新增

Asia Cement (亞泥 1102) - Goldman Sachs Research

Potential upside to 2Q09 earnings on improving non-op. income

What’s changed

ACC reported May sales of NT$958.7mn, up 14% mom and 7% yoy, largely in line with our expectation. We believe the mom sales improvement was mainly due to higher export sales volume. We remain positive on ACC given our view that there is potential upside to our 2Q09 earnings estimate on higher equity investment income.

欲閱讀全文者請按 1102 亞泥研究報告-GS

相關文章

• 2009年的選股重點

研究報告的更新方式為….新增列於本文最下方！

Novatek Microelectronics (聯詠 3034) - Macquarie Research

While Novatek’s stock price may still have some pressure due to soft panel outlook, we continue to believe that the company deserves a revisit on its good execution, healthy balance sheet, and positive net cashflow as well as high cash yield. The better-than-expected GM should also ease some margin erosion concern. Value-driven investors may consider Novatek and Himax (HIMX US, US$1.92, OP, TP: US$3.2).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Novatek 3034 聯詠 研究報告 - MACQ ，另提供 Novatek 3034 聯詠 研究報告 - 花旗 予各位一併參考。

Faraday (智原 3035) - Deutsche Bank Research

Weakening growth outlook; retain Sell

The company is competing with fabless customers directly by working with system makers. This should trigger market share loss in fabless customers in the long term. We expect the company to experience gross margin erosion and an earnings growth slowdown from 2009 onwards due to an unfavorable product mix
and poor design capability on advanced technology nodes. We maintain our earnings forecast and TP and reiterate our Sell rating.

Our TP is based on 12.8x US GAAP 2009E EPS, which is in line with the 2003-07 trough. We believe this is justified by its 2009E-10E earnings CAGR of 4%, which is lower than the 2003-07 CAGR of 48%. We believe growth deceleration may lead the stock to trade close to the historical trough. Upside risks include faster
share gain in system makers and technology migration.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Faraday 3035 智原 研究報告 

Phison Electronics (群聯 8299) - Macquarie Research

A possible survivor, but too expensive

Following disappointing 3Q08 results and our conservative view on NAND Flash, we cut our earnings forecast and target price significantly for Phison. Our rating remains at Underperform and our new target price is NT$30 (8x 2009E PER) from NT$110 previously.

Our stance on Phison reflects our long-standing conservative view of major NAND Flash players, supported by the disappointing 3Q08 results seen across the region. We await clearer signals of a growth in NAND Flash demand before reviewing our investment view.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Phison 8299 群聯 研究報告 - MACQ ，另提供 Phison 8299 群聯 研究報告 - 高盛 予各位一併參考。

Ralink Technology (雷凌 3534) - Macquarie Research

The stock price was relatively resilient recently, we believe, due to Street expectations for its sales and GM recovery. However, we suspect the disappointing sales and GM outlook will prompt a further sell-off. We maintain an Underperform and will review our rating when we see more-significant market-share gains and/or a stabilisation in Ralink’s margin trend.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Ralink 3534 雷凌 研究報告

Realtek Semiconductor (瑞昱 2379) - Macquarie Research

We maintain our Underperform rating on Realtek and cut our TP to NT$42 (from NT$50), still based on the ROE-g/COE-g fair value appraisal. We believe the soft 4Q08 and 2009 outlook will be a negative catalyst for the stock price.

We suggest selling the stock. We believe the recent resilient performance will end soon, as the company’s disappointing outlook and earnings cuts by the street could be negative catalysts for the stock price. We suspect the stock price will test the ROE-g/COE-g fair value (NT$42) again if not break. Maintain Underperform.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Realtek 2379 瑞昱 研究報告 - MACQ ，另提供 Realtek 2379 瑞昱 研究報告 - 美林 、Realtek 2379 瑞昱 研究報告 - 高盛 予各位一併參考。

Sunplus Technology (凌陽 2401) - Goldman Sachs Research

3Q below expectations, no visibility on weak consumer demand

Sunplus reported 3Q08 EPS NT$0.31, 42% lower than our estimate. The company missed our sales forecast by 22%; however, the main upside for its operating profit (NT$218 mn vs. our estimate of NT$160 mn) comes from the better GM (46.9% vs. our estimate of 40.8%) – mostly contributed by higher Silicon Image royalty income, FX gains, and better product mix. The non-operating loss of NT$15 mn was well below our estimate of operating income of NT$203 mn due to the investment loss from its subsidiaries. Management did not provide clear 4Q08 guidance, but was generally more cautious on weak consumer demand visibility.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Sunplus 2401 凌陽 研究報告 - 高盛 ，另提供 Sunplus 2401 凌陽 研究報告 - MACQ 予各位一併參考。

Global Mixed-mode Technology (致新 8081) - Goldman Sachs Research

Global Mixed-mode Technology (GMT) announced its audited 3Q results. The top line result was in line with our estimates. GMT’s 2008 3Q EPS was NT$3.54, which was lower than our estimate by 7%. We slightly revise down our 2008E GAAP EPS forecasts by 3% but revise our 2009E GAAP EPS and 2010E GAAP EPS by 1%, respectively. Our new GAAP EPS estimates are NT$8.82, NT$9.61 and NT$11.66 for 2008E, 2009E and 2010E, respectively. We have not changed our investment thesis or Neutral rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 8081 致新 研究報告

———————-11/15 新增外資研究報告—————————

Phison Electronics (群聯 8299) - Morgan Stanley Research

Phison (8299.TWO) Analyst
Meeting Key Takeaways

Management expects 2008 revenue to be down Y/Y. November/December sales will decline M/M after 22% M/M growth in October. For 2008, management aims for NT$500mn or ~NT$4.40 EPS on Q/Q profits growth in 4Q08 (October gross margin improved to ~7% from 3% in 3Q08; continued gross margin improvement in November). Phison is trading on 13x 2008e consensus P/E and 1.3x 3Q08 P/B.

欲閱讀全文者請按 PHISON 8299 群聯

Ralink Technology (雷凌 3534) - Citi Investment Research

Sell: Weaker Sales Signal Pricing Squeeze; Lower Target Price

Reiterate Sell (3H) — We reiterate our negative view on Ralink and lower our target price to NT$78, on 10-11x 09E earnings. Given rising uncertainty and more order cutbacks, we fear the competitive pricing environment will continue to worsen and affect Ralink into 1H09E.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Ralink Technology 3534 雷凌

Richtek  (立錡 6286) - Merrill Lynch Research

Takeaways from analyst meeting

Retain Underperform
Despite a 15% share price correction in recent months, the stock still trades at a premium P/E to its local and global peers. We do not see any near-term catalysts for the stock given the uncertain tech demand and macro headwinds. We could turn more positive on the stock when we have better visibility on its new product delivery. Retain Underperform with PO of NT$145 (14x FY09 EPS).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Richtek Technology 6286 立錡

11/27新增

Realtek Semiconductor (瑞昱 2379) - BNP PARIBAS Research

802.11n is the most exciting product for Realtek in 2009
Realtek is scheduled to sample out its 802.11n single chip by year-end. On one side, we notice Realtek uses 65nm process (ahead of Ralink’s 90nm process) on its 802.11n single chip with better cost structure. On
the other hand, we notice Realtek further integrated PA (USD 0.5-0.6 cost saving) into its single chip (MAC/Baseband/RF). We believe the revenue from WLAN ICs will contribute 12% of total revenue, up from
10% in 2008, indicating nearly 20% y-y growth.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Realtek 2379 瑞昱 研究報告 - BNP

01/20新增

Realtek Semiconductor (瑞昱 2379) - Merrill Lynch Research

Short-term positive in the price

Near-term order flow slightly better
Due to inventory adjustment by clients and cuts to orders, Realtek’s 4Q sales fell to NT$3.08bn (down 36% QoQ and 17% YoY). While overall PC demand remains weak, Realtek has seen a slight order flow improvement after three consecutive months of decline. Reaktek will hold analyst meeting on 3 February. We expect the company to guide a 10-20% QoQ sales decline in 1Q.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Realtek 2379 瑞昱 研究報告 - 美林

02/10新增

Realtek Semiconductor (瑞昱 2379) - DAIWA Research

Still few catalysts, but valuation is attractive in PBR terms

We have been negative about the prospects for Realtek Semiconductor (Realtek) since May 2008 when we initiated coverage of the company. Although we do not expect much change in its fundamentals over the near term, we believe the downside for the stock is limited for now as it is trading near book value.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Realtek 2379 瑞昱 研究報告 - DAIWA，另提供 Realtek 2379 瑞昱 研究報告 - MACQ 、Realtek 2379 瑞昱 研究報告 - Morgan Stanley予各位一併參考。

Novatek (聯詠 3034) - Citi Research

Buy: Leverage Play Ahead of Taiwan TFT Recovery 

Re-iterate Buy — Novatek had a prolonged down-cycle due to weak panel and monitor demand. While op. margin will trend lower in 1Q09, it now has a chance to win outsourced Japanese orders, and will remain as a key supplier to the TFT supply chain. With leveraged effect on driver restocking when the Taiwan panel makers see recovery, we re-iterate our Buy (1M) on Novatek.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Novatek 3034 聯詠 研究報告 - Citi

相關文章

• Taiwan hardware signals / Taiwan Fabless / 鴻海 / 仁寶
• 由Buy Side與Sell Side建立閱讀外資研究報告的正確態度
• 光寶 / 閎輝 / 友訊 / 合勤 / 健鼎 / 聯電 / 華邦電 / 東元
• 南科 / 華亞科 / 奇美 / 友達 / 群創 / 華映 / 彩晶 / 面板產業
• 美律 / 華碩 / 茂迪 / 中美晶 / 鴻準 / 可成 / 勝華 / 台肥 / 熒茂
• 中信金 / 國泰金 / 玉山金 / 新光金 / 台新金 / 第一金 / 中壽 / 彰銀
• 台灣資產股與相關原物料(麥格里)

研究報告的更新方式為….增列於本文最下方。

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (景碩 3189) - Citi Investment Research

Continue to buy into trough — Despite market fears of a broader semi demand downturn, we expect Kinsus to be one of names to survive in this downturn with strong 35% net cash to equity and 55% net cash to market capital ratio. We reiterate our 1M rating, but cut our TP to NT$52, 1.1-1.2x 2008-10E book.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3189 景碩 研究報告

TXC Corp (晶技 3042) - Citi Investment Research

Continue to buy into trough — Despite market fears of a broader semi demand downturn, we expect Kinsus to be one of names to survive in this downturn with strong 35% net cash to equity and 55% net cash to market capital ratio. We reiterate our 1M rating, but cut our TP to NT$52, 1.1-1.2x 2008-10E book.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3042 晶技 研究報告

Chipbond Techn (頎邦 6147) - Macquarie Research

We like the company for its unparalleled cost structure, especially in gold bumping technology. We do see, however, two issues for the company that may not be resolved in the near term. These are: 1) declining wafer bumping demand, and 2) continuing price pressure from TFT LCD panel makers given the current oversupply situation and global macro headwinds. We revise down our target price to NT$8.5 from NT$15.9, as we lower our P/BV multiple to 0.5x from 1x. We expect its ROE to see three straight years of decline to 5.8% in 2009E from 19% in 2007.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Chipbond 6147 頎邦 研究報告

ITEQ (聯茂 6213) - Goldman Sachs

The copper price has fallen by 45% since September and our commodities research team has also cut its copper price forecasts. As copper foil represents about 50%-70% of CCL material cost, we believe ITEQ’s growth prospects have been substantially weakened as lower CCL pricing will hurt sales growth momentum and weaken operating leverage. We note that current CCL prices are still about 20% higher than CY2005 levels, when the copper price ranged from US$3,000-4,000/tonne. Though our commodities research team expects the copper price to rebound meaningfully in 2H09, we believe medium-term poor CCL pricing and a weak demand outlook from ITEQ’s PCB customers will weigh on ITEQ’s shipments and utilization.
We recognize ITEQ’s competitive position in the expected trend of greener CCL material adoption, but we see s sluggish fundamental outlooks for ITEQ in the next 2-3 quarters. We believe the time to re-visit the stock is when PCB demand picks up and the copper price strengthens. We are cutting our 2008E/09E/10E sales/earnings forecasts by 5%-33% and lower our 12-month target price to NT$17 (from NT$32), based on 7X next- 12-month P/E (implying 1.0X trailing P/B). Given the potential volatility of small cap stocks it is possible ITEQ shares may undershoot our TP in the short run. Key risks to our price target include even weaker CCL pricing and PCB demand.

欲閱讀全文者請按 6213 聯茂 研究報告

Greatek Electronics (超豐 2441) - Macquarie Research

More liquidity concerns

GTK is a quality niche package player with a net cash position. However, given the current financial turmoil, we believe investors prefer to stick with large-cap, high liquidity, and well cover stocks. Unfortunately, GTK does not have any one of the above factors, which often result in valuation de-ratings. Moreover, we do
not expect GTK can outgrow peers in this cyclical downturn as we do not see an opportunity in market share gains or a breakthrough in the low-end consumer package. We, hence, downgrade GTK to Neutral from Outperform. On 15.6% ROE, 9% dividend yield, and a 50% net cash position, we expect GTK will not trade at its previous trough of 0.4x forward P/BV in 2001.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Greatek 2441 超豐 研究報告

KYEC (京元電 2449) - Macquarie Research

Vulnerable testing business

We cut our TP to NT$7 from NT$23.8, due mainly to reflect our earnings revisions and P/BV multiple adjustment amid a weak economic outlook that may further dampen earnings growth. As a high operating leveraged play (depreciation as 57% of COGS), KYEC is likely to incur losses in 1Q09. Although its valuations already hit the historical low, we think it is still too premature to turn positive. Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform.

欲閱讀全文者請按 KYEC 2449 京元電 研究報告

Phoenix Precision (全懋 2446) - Merrill Lynch

Business starting to fall, too early to call bottom

PPT reported an in-line 3Q08 but visibility is limited. Although 4Q08 revenue may not drop as sharply as we forecast (down 20%) we think 1Q09 could see another double-digit decline. We lower 2008/09E EPS by 23%/21% to NT$0.62/NT$0.59. We maintain our Underperform rating due to the high P/E of 14x 2009E EPS and the continued earnings risk from high PC/graphics exposure and ASP/mix risks.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Phoenix Precision 2446 全懋 研究報告

Shin Zu Shing Co. Ltd. (新日興 3376) - Merrill Lynch

Upbeat 3Q results (25% higher than MLe)
SZS reported upbeat 3Q net profit of NT$461mn (EPS NT$3.72; up 119% QoQ and up 12% YoY), driven by stronger revenue growth (up 36% QoQ; vs MLe: up 28%) and ~NT$100mn forex gains. However, we think the strong top-line momentum may peak-out in October, and expect flattish top-line growth for 4Q08
(vs management’s projection of a 5-10% QoQ increase).

Premium valuation, maintaining Buy
We are reviewing SZS’s 08/09 model assumptions in light of its upbeat 3Q results, but our conservative view on the 2009 outlook. SZS’s share price has outperformed TAIEX by about 10% YTD. The stock is now trading at a premium valuation (11x 08-09 P/E) to NB food-chain peers (averaging 9x P/E), and we maintain our Buy opinion.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3376 新日興 研究報告

———————01/20新增————————-

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (景碩 3189) - Citi Investment Research

Changes and Implications
We have updated our FY2011 estimates to reflect changes in our estimates towards its FC-CSP margins. We do not view these changes as material, and there is no change to our investment thesis, rating or price target. For methodology and risks associated with our price target, please see our previously published research.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3189 景碩 研究報告 - 高盛

Phoenix Precision (全懋 2446) - Macquarie Investment Research

Another leg down

Downward revisions from major customers. Following Intel’s (INTC, NR) profit warning earlier, nVidia (NVDA, NR) slashed its end-Jan-09 quarterly revenue by almost 50%. The worse-than-expected sales could result in higher inventory and further order cuts for the IC substrates. We also expect these customers to exert increasing pricing pressure on IC substrate suppliers given the abundant under-utilised capacities. PPT is likely to suffer, given 50% exposure to PC applications.

欲閱讀全文者請按 PTT 2446 全懋 研究報告 - MACQ

———————02/10新增————————-

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (景碩 3189) - Goldman Sachs Research

Above expectations: see a greater than expected dip in 1Q2009
Though Kinsus’ business has been slow since 4Q08, its higher-margin FCCSP and BT-FC lines showed above-average performance (mainly due to less-affected smartphone demand and increasing need for the generalpurpose FPGA chips when visibility remains low), thus driving the 4Q08 earnings upside against our estimate (NT$395 mn, vs. our estimate of NT$279 mn). Meanwhlie, Kinsus announced a cash dividend of NT$2 per share, implying a 6.4% dividend yield. Kinsus also announced a share buyback plan to repurchase 5 mn shares (or 1.1% of its total outstanding shares) from the open market by 3/22.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3189 景碩 研究報告 - 高盛

———————02/25新增————————-

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (景碩 3189) - Merrill Lynch Investment Research

Recovery to begin with new products – reiterate Buy

Raising 2009 EPS – share price catalysts could come early
We raise our 2009 EPS and reiterate our Buy rating (recently upgraded from Underperform). 4Q08 results were in line with BAS-ML, while utilization appears to be stabilizing. Our analysis suggests the stock is intrinsically undervalued; Catalysts in the weak macro include new product cycles, share gains, customer
inventory reduction, and a broad-based order snapback from 3Q09.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Kinsus 3187 景碩 研究報告 - 美林

Phoenix Precision (全懋 2446) - Merrill Lynch Research

Limited options

Losses to persist into 2010E
Phoenix Precision (PPT) reported large 4Q08 losses in the absence of a dedicated cost-reduction plan. Revenue fell 19.7% QoQ in 4Q08 while net income plunged 207% QoQ to -NT$309mn, below our NT$60mn (EPS NT$0.08) forecast and consensus of NT$173mn (EPS NT$0.24). The OP margin slid 20.6% from 9.2% to -11.4% (vs our estimate of 4.1%). Although the company expects to roll out a cost-reduction plan, no significant initiative has yet been taken.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Phoenix Precision 2446 全懋 研究報告 - 美林，另提供 Phoenix Precision 2446 全懋 研究報告 - 高盛 予各位一併參考

Shin Zu Shing Co. Ltd. (新日興 3376) - Merrill Lynch Research

No signs to turn positive; retain Neutral

EPS and PO trimmed; maintain Neutral rating
We cut earning estimates of Shin Zu Shing (SZS) by 7% and 19% for 2008/09E, to reflect lower revenue assumptions and higher margin pressure concerns. We expect the market to react neutrally to the firm’s 4Q08 results (in line with market’s reduced expectation) and conservative 1Q09 guidance. We cut our PO to NT$96 from NT$119, using trough-cycle valuation method (11x P/E). Retain Neutral.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3376 新日興 研究報告 - 美林

相關文章

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非經濟危機對股市的干擾速度快時間短：相對於經濟危機而言，這是一個很重要的差異。以921大地震為例，芮氏規模達7.3級，造成2415人死亡，11306人受傷，近11萬戶房屋半倒或全倒，當時對於台灣人心的震撼是相當大的，不過指數跌了三天後，最大跌幅為7%(限制單日跌幅為3.5%)，就開始展開反彈。再以911恐怖攻擊為例，總共造成2991人死亡，紐約世貿中心雙塔等六棟建築全毀，連美國國防部總部所在之五角大廈亦遭受到攻擊，股市的反應是….美國股市在暫停交易一週後恢復交易，總計下跌五天，最大跌幅為16.06%，而台股則是下跌8天，最大跌幅為18.31%，而後展開另一波中期漲勢。

由於非經濟因素的干擾，影響最大的是投資人的信心，反而企業營收與獲利影響較小，而影響股市中長期表現的絕對是基本面因素，所以市場會很快的恢復正常。

至於經濟因素所造成的危機，無論是1930年代美國的經濟大蕭條(Great Depression)，又或是1990年代日本銀行危機(Japan banking crisis)、2000年的網路泡沫(Dot-com bouble)等，對於經濟景氣與企業的營收與獲利，所產生的是實質性中長期的影響，股市的跌幅與下跌時間自然較非經濟危機來的大。

在面對非經濟因素所產生的危機時，危機入市的作法通常可以獲得短線不錯的報酬率，但是通常會令人慘賠的卻是經濟因素所產生的危機入市！基本上危機入市的觀念沒有錯，這是價值投資者所遵循的，但是為什麼經常會令投資人慘賠呢？

回歸到價值投資法的五個重要觀念 (請參閱 價值投資法的介紹(一) )，價格、價值、安全邊際、好公司、長期投資的心態，我們將投資人危機入市之所以慘賠或僅是小幅度獲利的因素說明如下：

1.價格雖然經歷一段跌勢，但是依舊呈現 價格 > 價值 的現象。例如義隆電(2458)從最高價97.6元下跌至50元，跌幅確實頗大，價格也幾近腰斬，但是獲利表現依舊普通，所以股價在一段小幅度反彈後繼續往下探底跌破20元。

2.投資人購買的不是自己熟悉的公司，對於價值的估量產生較大的誤差，誤以為 價格 < 價值，其實不然。

3.雖然投資人購買的是自己熟悉的產業與公司，但是沒有掌握到安全邊際的概念，只用合理價格買進，當價格下跌到遠低於價值的狀況時，卻無力加碼，當股市最終恢復正常時，也只能以合理價格賣出。以中鋼(2002)為例，最近八年的平均EPS為3.36元，假設合理價值是以本益比(PER ; P/E)10倍來衡量，那就是33.6元，很多投資人在30元以上買進，雖然買進價格不貴，但是沒有掌握到安全邊際的概念，所以買到不是物超所值的中鋼。(正通認為中鋼宜用6倍本益比的情境下買進，才是物超所值)

4.投資人買進的不是好公司，雖然買進的價格遠低於價值，但是隨著時間經過，公司的價值也不斷的降低，價格在股市恢復正常後，自然反彈力道薄弱。例如DRAM與TFT LCD的相關公司(請參閱 面板製造公司( TFT LCD )是一個好的投資標的？！、公司是不是一個好的投資標的？！ )

5.縱使投資人買進時符合價格低於價值、安全邊際、自己熟悉的公司、好公司等幾個要點，但是沒有長期投資的觀念，結果往往買在低點但是賣在起漲點。從融資餘額的變化我們可以發現，股市脫離底部不久，融資餘額呈現的是持續性降低，漲勢持續一段時間後，融資餘額才會增溫。

從以上五點各位可以發現，危機入市不適用於所有投資人，因為多數投資人缺乏熟悉的公司，也沒有能力判斷公司的價值，甚至連公司的好壞也很難區分清楚，當然，短線投機客是最常誤用危機入市觀念的一群。

不少投資人對於危機入市抱持反向看法，部分是錯誤的應用危機入市，失敗經驗所產生的情節，部分則是期待等到股市止穩又或是經濟回溫後，才有信心進場。對於前者，希望他們能更深入的認識價值投資法，或許看法會有轉變，對於後者，我們必須提醒…就是因為有危機，才會有高額的風險溢酬(因為承擔相對較高的風險，所以期望報酬率會相對較高)，而且股市往往領先景氣指標4～6個月以上，一旦確認危機解除，而且景氣落底後回溫，好公司的股價通常已經從底部上漲2～3成以上，屆時追高所面對的投資風險不見得比危機入市時低！

有一次巴菲特接受訪問，談到當初購買華盛頓郵報 (Washington Post Company) 的決策時，他表示….當時我估計華盛頓郵報的內涵價值約為四到五億美金，但總市值才約一億美金(換言之股價不到內涵價值的四分之一)。巴菲特問那位急著賣他華盛頓郵報股票的基金經理人：「你知道這檔股票的價值比這個股價高了許多吧？」那位基金經理人回答說：「我當然知道，可是它正在下跌呀！」巴菲特心想：股價正在下跌又怎樣！因此巴菲特當時花了一千萬美金買進華盛頓郵報的股票，持股到今天一直沒賣。

處在市場出現危機之際，要敢出手買進確實需要不小的膽量，但是如果你能確實掌握價值投資法的五個觀念，這將提供你充足買進的信心，縱使股價有可能繼續下跌，但是經濟危機發生之際，預測底部與景氣變化，沒有人可以百分之百的掌握，此時不確定的是股價，能夠確定的是公司價值，再加上未來經濟必將好轉的歷史經驗，既然如此，縱使股價正在下跌，甚至未來有可能繼續下跌，為何不敢買？

認識自己的不足之處，才是邁向成功投資的第一步，本文的目的除了希望幫助投資人釐清危機入市的觀念外，也建議能力不足的小額投資人，既然選股能力有所欠缺，不如以中長期投資的觀念，參考證交所公布之台灣股市平均本益比，用逢低買進ETF(台灣50)的方式，來進行危機入市的投資，相信這種方式將可打敗七成以上的投資人。

相關文章

• 關於巴菲特 (六)
• 如何衡量個股的價格風險
• 價值投資法的介紹(四)
• 股神巴菲特這次將晚節不保？
• 投資的第一堂課-認識風險 (下)
• Taiwan Banks / 富邦金 / 台達電 / 矽品 / 仁寶 / 中鋼 / 遠紡 / 統一
• 巴菲特說：Buy American. I Am.

Nanya Technology Corp. (南科 2408) - Morgan Stanley

Banks Own More Than Investors

Quick Comment – Conclusion: On ~70% liabilities/ assets ratio, 0.8x P/B, Nanya is ~75% owned by creditors and only 25% owned by investors (Formosa group ~50% shareholder). Timing is everything. It’s better for Nanya to transition from Qimonda’s vanishing trench technology to Micron’s stacked technology in a
DRAM downturn. Nanya will lose some fab capacity during transition in 4Q08/1Q09 (just like other DRAM
makers shut down some capacities for recess to reduce bleeding). In a DRAM downturn; less shipments will
lead to a smaller loss although variable cost will first increase initially until crossover in 2H09.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Nanya 2408 南科 研究報告 

Nanya Technology Corp. (南科 2408) - Merrill Lynch

Challenging period ahead 

Poor margins continue; lowering PO and EPS by 16-19%
We do not see any meaningful upside for Nanya Technology. Downbeat 3Q margins (operating loss of NT$6.0bn at -52% OPM vs MLe: -49%) and a cashcost- level DRAM spot price prompt us to revise down 2008 and 2009 EPS by 16% and 19%, respectively. As a result, we lower our price objective by 18% to
NT$4.1. We reiterate our Underperform rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Nanya 2408 南科 研究報告 - 美林 

Inotera Memories, Inc. (華亞科 3474) - Morgan Stanley

The Survivor Pick 

Quick Comment – Conclusion: On superior business model, Inotera is the only DRAM maker in Taiwan with
positive cash margin in downturn. Cash is king. Cost of capital is no longer cheap in Taiwan. But Taiwan still has a laborious talented human capital. Production cost difference is what attracts technology partners to Taiwan. As all DRAM makers are cutting wafers production to reduce cash loss; the best time for Inotera to transition from trench to stacked in a downturn. Capacity loss leads to less losses overall. We expect ~30% Y/Y bits growth for Inotera in 2009. Inotera should benefit from next DRAM upcycle in 2010 with good cost structure on more certain stacked technology roadmap.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3474 華亞科 研究報告

Inotera Memories, Inc. (華亞科 3474) - Merrill Lynch

Micron will likely not warrant upside 

Micron deal presents risks, PO and EPS lowered 18-20%
We believe Micron’s 35.6% Inotera stake acquisition from Qimonda will not warrant stock upside or shareholder value creation. We worry about potential corporate governance risks and start-up costs to adopt new Micron technologies. Inotera’s 3Q loss appears higher than our estimate (net loss: NT$4.0 actual vs NT$3.0bn). The current DRAM spot price is about 10-20% lower than consensus or our forecast. Against this backdrop, we lower our price objective 18% to NT$6.5, and cut 2008-09E EPS by 18-20%. We reiterate our Underperform rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Inotera Memories Inc 3474 華亞科 研究報告

AU Optronics (友達 2409) - Citi Investment Research

Buy: Over 35% YoY Capex Cut in 2009E likely to Slow Supply 

BUY into trough — AUO is now trading below the prior three cycles’ trailing trough P/BVs of 0.9x for 2001, 1.1x for 2003, and 1.6x for 2H04. We believe downside is limited and reiterate our Buy (1L) rating. However, we are slashing our target price to NT$40 from NT$66.5 as losses might last and widen for 2-3 quarters to drag the share price to 1x book.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告

AU Optronics (友達 2409) - Macquarie Research

3Q08 results preview 

Price catalyst
12-month price target: NT$40.00 based on a Price to Book methodology.
Catalyst: The demand response to lower LCD TV Street prices will be a key factor for panel price stability and the direction of the TFT-LCD cycle.

Action and recommendation
We maintain an Outperform but lower our target price from NT$61 to NT$40 based on a 2009E P/BV of 1.1x. We believe the stock should trade above its book value on a 12-month view before a return to profitability in 2Q09 and 2H09. Our previous target price of NT$61 (ex-dividend) was based on 1.6x our preceding 2008E BV/sh estimate. Historically, the stock has traded at an average P/BV of 1.6x with a high of 3.5x and low of 0.6x.

We believe the losses and TFT-LCD downcycle in 2H08 should be mostly discounted. Since 1 August, when it became apparent that panel pricing would fall sharply to cash COGS, AUO has outperformed the TWSE index by 11%.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告 - MACQ

Chi Mei Opto (奇美 3009) - Citi Investment Research

Downgrade to Sell: Rising Company Specific Risks 

Downgrade to Sell — Despite CMO already breaking below its prior trailing trough P/BV, we have decided to downgrade the name to Sell (3L) from Buy (1L) and cut our target price to NT$15 from NT$45.5 as we believe this company will bring larger downside risks to investors by carrying a higher gearing ratio, weaker FCF yield, and larger book value contraction.

欲閱讀全文者請按 CMO 3009 奇美 研究報告

10/31 新增 群創 3481、華映 2475、彩晶  6116 等三檔個股的外資研究報告

Innolux Display Corporation (群創 3481) - Merrill Lynch

Poor 3Q results, down to Underperform

Downgrade from BUY to Underperform, NT$22 PO
We downgrade Innolux from Buy to Underperform (currently 6 Buys, 4 Neutral and 1 Sell per Bberg) and reduce our PO to NT$22 on 0.7x 09E PBV (below its historical 0.9-5.5x PBV range). After very poor 3Q results, we expect deep losses in 4Q08/1H09, disproving the theory of its more “defensive” panel+assembly
business model and lead us to use PBV valuations, similar to other panel makers.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Innolux 群創 3481 研究報告 - 美林 ，另外提供 Innolux 群創 3481 研究報告 - 高盛 予各位一併參考

HannStar (彩晶 6116) - Macquarie Research

3Q08 net loss of NT$3.2bn

Action and recommendation
We maintain an Outperform rating, but lower our target price from NT$13.3 to NT$7.0 based on a 2009E P/BV of 0.7x. Our previous target price was based on 1.0x our preceding 2008 book value estimate. We lower our target multiple to reflect low demand visibility. HannStar should weather the current downturn
well because it has one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry, with a net cash position. Management believes the stock is undervalued and is currently undertaking the second share buyback of this year.

欲閱讀全文者請按 HannStar 6116 彩晶 研究報告 - MACQ ，另外提供 HannStar 6116 彩晶 研究報告 - Morgan Stanley 予各位一併參考

CPT (華映 2475) - Macquarie Research

3Q08 net loss of NT$6.1bn

Action and recommendation
We maintain an Outperform rating but lower our target price from NT$10.0 to NT$4.2 based on a 2009E P/BV of 0.6x. Our previous target price was based on 1.0x our preceding 2008 book value estimate. We lower our target multiple to reflect low demand visibility and concerns over CPT’s high debt gearing
and credit risk.

欲閱讀全文者請按 CPT 2475 華映 研究報告 - MACQ ，另外提供 CPT 2475 華映 研究報告 - Morgan Stanley 予各位一併參考

11/15 新增 友達、奇美、DRAM產業、TFT LCD產業 的外資研究報告

Chi Mei Opto (奇美 3009) - BNP Paribas Research

At the epicentre of all fears: REDUCE
3Q in-line record loss; it was just the beginning
CMO’s 3Q08 loss of TWD4.2b was in-line with our estimate. While the 3Q was just the start of CMO’s expected loss making multi-quarters, this loss was record-breaking. Its net debt/equity ratio rose to 74% (2Q: 56%), as CMO drew down additional TWD63b of debt ahead of the deadline for ‘last drawdown’ of the earlier signed syndicated loan.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Chi Mei Optoelectronics 3009 奇美

AU Optronics (友達 2409) - Citi Investment Research

Buy: Consensus Cut Might Accelerate Again Due to Weaker Oct
Mixed shift to PC panels from TV — AUO reported Oct. consolidated sales of NT$27.3bn, down 21% mom and 49% yoy, falling short of our estimates of 10- 15% mom decline in Oct. We believe the larger than expected fall is not driven by shipment (-9% mom in large panel and flattish on small panel) but by mix
shift to PC panel from TV, resulting in blended ASP decline of 15-17% mom for AUO vs. apple-to-apple price decline of 5-7% mom in Oct.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AU Optronics 2409 友達

Taiwan DRAM Sector (台灣DRAM產業) - Deutsche Bank Research

Committed to memory : Taiwan outlines DRAM plan
With repayments looming, MoEA sketches out DRAM rescue plans
The Taiwan government yesterday began to clarify the steps that may be taken to save struggling DRAM makers. In this report, we outline the forthcoming debt repayment schedules for the four companies under our coverage, and speculate on how this situation may evolve. Our DRAM thesis remains unchanged – that
over the coming year, increasing financial pressures will drive consolidation, but the industry’s oversupply is likely to abate somewhat.

Risk/reward profile appears positive
We value our DRAM universe based on historical mid cycle average multiples. Given the likelihood of bankruptcy protection in Taiwan, it appears that the worst case scenarios will be averted. We like Powerchip, Nanya Tech and Inotera. Downside risks to our thesis include further declines in consumer sentiment, an
unexpectedly sharp cut in IT budgets, and a greater-than-expected netbook share.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan DRAM Sector

Taiwan Taiwan TFT LCD Sector Sector (台灣面板產業) - Macquarie Research

Oct large panel sales down 27% MoM
The outlook from here has very limited visibility. The big swing factor is the response in LCD TV demand to lower prices during the November and December holiday season. 4Q is the busiest sell-through period and usually accounts for about 40% of total TV end-demand for the year. Average retail prices for LCD TVs should be cheaper by 20-45% compared with mid-2008 and 30-50% a year ago (Figure 6). The nature of the sell-through will set the tone for demand and pricing elasticity for 2009.

Panel prices should moderate their declines from here (Figure 7-10). Prices should fall by 10–15% QoQ in 4Q08, less than the fall of 12–26% in 3Q08. For November, we expect a decline of 5–10% MoM. Prices will not be finalised until the end of the month, as has been the case for the previous few months. Price declines are moderating as suppliers are producing near their cash COGS (Figure 2) and, consequently, are lowering utilisation rates.

Meanwhile, the industry has reduced supply and capex (Figures 3 and 4) for both 2008 and 2009. We estimate that large panel supply growth by area will be down to a new historical low of 15–20% in 2009, down from 25–30% in 2008. Capex in 2009 will be down by 34%, based on our survey. 

Regionally, we have a Neutral view on the TFT-LCD sector due to weak demand related to macroeconomic issues. We are relatively more positive on Taiwanese TFT-LCD stocks because of lower valuations and better capex discipline. Our top pick is AUO, the bluechip leader in Taiwan.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD Sector

—————01/20新增—————-

Chi Mei Opto (奇美 3009) - Citi Paribas Research

Correction: Sell: Warning – Inventory Losses Might Be Expanded in 4Q08E
3Q in-line record loss; it was just the beginning
Reiterate Sell — We reiterate our Sell (3L) on CMO based on its higher gearing ratio on the balance sheet and large contraction in its book value amid the short-term negative outlook. In addition, we see likely one-off inventory losses following panel prices decline in 4Q08.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3009 CMO 奇美 研究報告 - 花旗

AU Optronics (友達 2409) - Macquarie Investment Research

Bad news is behind
We estimate a 4Q08 net loss of NT$24.6bn (loss per share (LPS) of NT$2.90). This is bigger than our previous estimate of NT$11.2bn. We believe AUO will write down inventory in 4Q08 amounting to about NT$10bn as the company prepares for the new regulation #10 taking effect from 1Q09. We estimate 4Q08 operating/EBITDA margin will fall to -40/-6% from +3/+22% in 3Q08 as the inventory write-downs will likely be taken in COGS. We believe these losses should already be discounted with forward-looking guidance and ASPs as key catalysts. While the losses from the inventory write-downs are significant, they will set a clean slate for 2009 and allow for a lower cost base.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告 - MACQ

Taiwan Taiwan TFT LCD Sector Sector (台灣面板產業) - Morgan Stanley Research

Consolidation to Defy Gravity

Investment conclusion: We prefer AUO over CMO this cycle. Since inception, AUO and CMO have made
comparable investments; but AUO generated ~2x of operating cashflow (~15% larger in paid in capital).
Scale matters; consolidation is inevitable. Hypothetical analysis: as a new industry leader, potential AUO/CMO merger could (1) differentiate in capital market to command valuation premium for better capital market access, (2) reduce costs by avoiding investment duplication, (3) result in changes to the business model. Samsung has Corning glass JV to share profits; LG Display has glass JV with NEG. A new Taiwan TFT
leader could request glass joint venture to ensure motherglass supply and capture foodchain profits and
avoid being the bargaining chips of Sony/Samsung’s internal buffered capacities.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD 研究報告 - Morgan Stanley

—————02/25新增—————-

CPT (華映 2475) - Morgan Stanley Research

Analyst Meeting Takeaways

CPT is seeing some rush orders in monitor and TV panels benefiting from inventory re-stocking and China rural TV subsidies. For 1Q09, CPT guides for flat Q/Q shipments for large size panels and small size panels at 40-50% fab utilization. CPT sees monitor panel prices increasing M/M again in February (this reflects panel makers’ reluctance to produce below cash cost at trough utilization). CPT strives to minimize cash
outflow in 2009 at minimal capex. CPT will increase its 18.5”, 20”W and 21.6” monitor shipment mix in 1Q09 at the expense of notebooks on a notebook inventory correction (notebook panel prices will stay flat until inventory clears).

欲閱讀全文者請按 CPT 2475 華映 研究報告 - MS

Taiwan Taiwan TFT LCD Sector Sector (台灣面板產業) - Macquarie Research

Panel prices in February

Regionally, we have a neutral view on the TFT-LCD sector. Price rises are led by supply-side factors and may not hold beyond 1Q09 since end-demand is weak. We recommend taking profit into this rally. We would turn positive if the price rebound is sustainable and demand is clearly recovering. 

We are more positive on Taiwanese panel makers, which have lower P/BV valuations. Our top picks remain AUO and InnoLux. In addition, tighter relationships with Chinese TV brands and a boost in demand from the rural subsidy should help AUO and CMO improve the strength of their customer base. This helps to narrow the advantages that Korean and Japanese panel makers have from supplying internally to their own affiliated brands.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD 研究報告 - MACQ

Taiwan DRAM Sector (台灣DRAM產業) - Morgan Stanley Research

Memory Module Industry
Over the cycle, well-managed memory module makers, such as Transcend, have outperformed pure memory fab operators, such as Powerchip and Nanya. Since 1999, Transcend has achieved average ROIC/ROE of 20%/23% versus negative figures for the Taiwan DRAM industry. Scale matters in the memory module industry. Amid DRAM/NAND shortages, larger module makers have better access to limited chip supply.
Amid oversupply, larger module companies have better pricing power and can react quicker to clear inventory.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan DRAM 研究報告 - MS

AU Optronics (友達 2409) - Merrill Lynch Research

Bottoming out, upgrade to BUY 

The worst is over, upgrade to BUY - NT$30.2 PO (1x PBV)
We are upgrading AUO from Neutral to BUY (NT$30.2 PO, 1.0x 09E PBV) as we think the worst is behind the company. No V-shaped recovery, 09E LCD oversupply (BAS-ML 7%), big 09E losses (BAS-ML NT$38.6bn versus NT$27.6bn previously) and negative ROE are widely expected at this point, but at 0.8x 09E PBV, long-term risk/reward is turning favorable in our view as a) sharp supply-side cuts are under way, b) 1Q loss for AUO should not be worse than 4Q, and c) 2Q blended ASP likely to stabilize and losses to narrow in 2H09 as industry awaits demand catalyst return.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告 - 美林

相關文章

• Taiwan TFT LCD / AU Optronics 2409 友達 / CMO 3009 奇美
• Taiwan strategy(Financial status – time for an EKG)
• 面板製造公司( TFT LCD )是一個好的投資標的？！
• DRAM 公司是不是一個好的投資標的？！
• 由Buy Side與Sell Side建立閱讀外資研究報告的正確態度
• 原油 / 總體經濟 / 半導體 / 主機板 / 筆記型電腦 / 半導體 / 塑化
• 光寶 / 閎輝 / 友訊 / 合勤 / 健鼎 / 聯電 / 華邦電 / 東元

報告的更新方式….直接增列於本文最下方！

Merry Electronics (美律 2439) - Goldman Sachs Research

Trough valuation with upcoming trough growth cycle; keep Neutral

Valuation
We are revising our EPS estimates: 2008 up 6%, 2009-2010 down 9%-12%. We lower our DCF-based 12-month target price, based on reduced estimates, to NT$36 (from NT$50), implying 7.5X NTM EPS. We believe it will be difficult for Merry to have any strong catalysts drive the shares’ rerating in the near term.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Merry 2439 美律 研究報告 ，另提供 Merry 2439 美律 研究報告 - MS 予各位一併參考。

Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩 2357) - Merrill Lynch Research

Growth from NB/Eee PCs and emerging market

Prefer Acer/Compal over Asustek
We like Acer given its pure brand model, position at the low-end segment and stronger procurement power. Compal offers great value/strong BS. However, Asustek might stand out again when we see its innovations deliver or/and further progress in the spin off. PO of NT$68.0 is based upon our sum-of-parts valuation
— 11x core EPS (NT$58.0) plus 8x investment income (NT$10.0) for 2009.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Asus 2357 華碩 研究報告

Motech Industries Inc. (茂迪 6244) - Merrill Lynch Research

Difficult bottoming process expected

Credit crunch does not favor vertical integration
While Motech appears to have enough cash to carry out its vertical expansion plan, under the current situation of credit tightening investors may see it as a challenging time to migrate to such model long before the actual accretion is to be realized. Hence, we are reducing ’09E revenue by 5% and EPS by 13%. Despite the fact that the share price has fallen hard recently, Motech does not appears very attractive at 9x ‘09E while some of its US-listed peers are still hovering at a level of 4x ‘09E.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Motech 6244 茂迪 研究報告 

Motech Industries Inc. (茂迪 6244) - Deutsche Bank Research

Attractive risk/reward; retain Buy

Maintain Buy; lower TP to NT$190
Our revised TP of NT$190 (from NT$250) is based on 14x US GAAP 2009E EPS, which is below the 20x during 2004-07. We believe this is merited by its 2009-10E earnings CAGR of 36%, which is below the 2004-07 CAGR of 77%. Downside risks include slower ramp-up in internal ingot/wafer and polysilicon capacity, NTD appreciation, and cancellation of incentives.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Motech 6244 茂迪 研究報告 - DB 

Motech Industries Inc. (茂迪 6244) - Citi Investment Research

Sell: In-Line EBIT Margins in 3Q, but Faces Oversupply in 2009E

Revising estimates — We are revising our 2008E and 2009E EPS estimates to NT$10.9 and NT$13.5 respectively to reflect better 3Q results and margin contraction due to pricing pressure and oversupply in 2009E.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Motech 6244 茂迪 研究報告 - 花旗

Sino-American Silicon (中美晶 5483) - Macquarie Research

Slow growth ahead

Price catalyst
12-month price target: NT$71.00 based on a PER methodology.
Catalyst: Weak demand and polysilicon oversupply.

Action and recommendation
Given the current financial turmoil, management may need to put in more effort and resources into their diversified business strategy. In the long-term, we believe this may be good for the company. However, we are becoming more cautious on its growing non-solar business (30%+), which should drag down its valuations as pure solar names used to enjoy higher PER multiples compared to other sectors. Consequently, we cut our TP to NT$71 based on a 7x forward PER, at its trough valuations.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Sino-American Silicon 5483 中美晶 研究報告

Foxconn Technology Co. Ltd. (鴻準 2354) - Merrill Lynch Research

Too much pessimism; Buy

Prefer FTC over Hon Hai, FIH and Catcher
We prefer FTC over Hon Hai (HNHAF; TWD81.1; C-2-7) and FIH (FXCNF; HKD; C-2-9) (both Neutral rated) given its margin improvement from 2Q08, and over Catcher (CHERF; TWD85.2; C-3-8) (downgraded to Underperform) on its higher earnings growth on the back of Hon Hai group synergy and recent underperformance by 50% for the past three months. Our PO of NT$100 is based on 11x 09E, the very low end of its P/E range for the past five years.

欲閱讀全文者請按  Foxconn Tech 鴻準 研究報告 

Catcher Technology Co. Ltd. (可成 2474) - Merrill Lynch Research

Recovery in the price ; Downgrade

Downgrading to Underperform with a PO of NT$80.0
We downgrade our rating on Catcher from Buy to Underperform with a PO of NT$80 (6% downside potential). We believe investors should lock in profits on upcoming 3Q results and October sales given the stock’s recent strong performance (up 25% from the trough and 50% of outperformance vs Taiex in 3M). We cut our 09E EPS by 14% to NT$8.0 on its share loss to FTC at Apple and limited margin improvement ahead.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Catcher 2474 可成 研究報告

Wintek (勝華 2384) - Macquarie Research

3Q08 results preview

3Q08 could see margins improving, allowing losses to narrow.

We believe the operating margin improved to -2.8% from -5.2% in 2Q08 thanks to the ramp-up of the touch panel business. This was better than our previous estimate of -9.2%. We believe Wintek is the only panel manufacturer worldwide to see 3Q08 margins improve sequentially. Sales reached NT$9.2bn (+24% QoQ, +15% YoY). We estimate a loss per share (LPS) of NT$0.36 (a net loss of NT$411m), better than an LPS of NT$0.39 in 2Q08.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Wintek 2384 勝華 研究報告

Taiwan Fertilizer Co Ltd (台肥 1722) - Morgan Stanley Research

3Q08 Earnings Could Disappoint Again

Quick Comment: We believe Taiwan Fertilizer’s (Taifer) 3Q08 results could surprise on the downside
again due to lower shipments at its Al Jubail JV. Taifer indicated that the bulk of 2-EH shipments was delayed until October, causing the sales to be booked in 4Q08 instead. As such, despite average urea, 2-EH, and DOP pricings are 33%, 3%, and 4% higher in 3Q08 than that of 2Q08, we estimate that Al Jubail JV’s earnings contribution could decline from 2Q08’s NT$1.3b to 3Q08’s NT$1.2b, missing market expectation of NT$1.5-1.6b. We expect the market to read this negatively as this is the second consecutive quarter that
Taifer has missed its earnings. With the earnings of Al Jubail JV failing to reflect the rising product pricings, we believe investors may start to apply a bigger discount to the stock’s NAV to incorporate higher execution risk and lower transparency. In view of the likely 3Q08 miss and investors’ growing concerns, we believe the stock needs more than just ‘undemanding valuation’ to perform again. We look for Taifer to trade in the range of NT$40-50 before new catalysts emerge. We hence retain an Equal-weight rating on the stock.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Fertilizer 1722 台肥 研究報告

10/31 新增 華碩 2357 研究報告

Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩 2357) - Macquarie Research

We think we have been late in downgrading our rating seeing the market’s recent freefall. However, there are still 17 buys on Bloomberg, which means the market may not be fully aware that pan-European demand is slowing rapidly and ASP/margin is declining. Valuation could be the only reason that we do not rate the stock an Underperform as both PER and P/BV are at historical lows. We expect Asustek’s share price to remain within the NT$40– 50 range in the coming quarters. We could revisit the stock when we see
evidence of growth recovery.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Asustek 華碩 2357 研究報告

11/15 新增華碩與茂迪的外資研究報告

Motech Industries Inc. (茂迪 6244) - Deutsche Bank Research

Grim picture ahead
We cut our EPS forecast by 4% for 2008, 31% for 2009, and 54% for 2010 to factor in demand slowdown led by tightening loan standards and more margin contraction. We see demand is slowing with the growing unwillingness to lend money for the solar installation. Moreover, we believe low entry barriers and
commoditized products will lead to sharp ASP/margin erosion when the solar industry is facing oversupply of polysilicon. We cut our TP from NT$190 to NT$94 and downgrade from Buy to Hold.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Mothech 6244 茂迪

Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩 2357) - Goldman Sachs Research

What’s changed
Best Buy (BBY, Neutral), the No. 1 US electronics chain, lowered its 2009 profit forecast on Nov 12, driven by weak consumer spending. This is another headwind following Circuit City (CC), the No. 2 US electronics chain, filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Nov 10. While we do not know what products caused the major shortfall for Best Buy as the company did not disclose the details, we have learned from the supply chain that both ASUSTeK’s own brand and ODM businesses are weakening on the back of demand deterioration. ASUSTeK has little exposure in CC but has recently increased exposure to BBY starting from late last year, though ASUSTeK’s overall exposure to the US remains small at roughly 10% of its total revenues in 3Q08. We have therefore revised down 2008/09/10 revenues by 0.6%/0.9%/0.4% and 2008/09/10 profits by 1.1%/7.5%/7.5% respectively.

欲閱讀全文者請按 ASUSTeK Computer 2357 華碩

11/27 新增

Catcher Technology Co. Ltd. (可成 2474) - JPMorgan Research

Relatively good outlook, but still hampered by macro headwinds; upgrade to Neutral

Upgrade to Neutral with PT of NT$54: We upgrade Catcher to Neutral from Underweight with a Jun-09 PT of NT$54 (1.0x FY09E book), due to better competitive landscape (in Catcher’s favor) in the notebook light metal space, cheap valuation, and better balance sheet metrics. Catcher should gain market share at the expense of Foxconn Tech in the notebook space, but all its key end markets (corporate notebooks, MP3 players, and high-end consumer notebooks) should see a meaningful decline in 2009. In addition, we feel Catcher should demonstrate more focus on the core biz rather than exploring new, unrelated product categories such as touch panels. We would turn more positive if light metal price reductions finally trigger adoption in consumer notebooks or if Apple significantly cuts prices on light-metalbased Macbooks. Key risk: continued heavy investment in new ventures.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Catcher Technology 2474 可成 研究報告 - JPMorgan，另提供 Catcher Technology 2474 可成 研究報告 - 麥格里 予各位一併參考。

Foxconn Technology Co. Ltd. (鴻準 2354) - Mqcquarie Research

80% of business at risk

We further lower our Foxconn Tech (FT) TP from NT$106 to NT$55 and maintain our Underperform rating. We believe FT will continue to suffer from deteriorating margins due to falling metal casing and thermal module demand. The stock is lacking positive catalysts and we think its valuation should further de-rate as 80% of its business is at risk, in our view.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Foxconn Technology 2354 鴻準 研究報告 - 麥格里

12/28 新增

Motech Industries Inc. (茂迪 6244) - Deutsche Bank Research

Synergies of vertical integration may deteriorate

Weakening fundamentals; TP down to NT$55 from NT$94
Our recent channel checks suggest a sharper upstream polysilicon ASP decline due to weaker end demand and intensified oversupply. This has led downstream players (including Motech) to cut prices more aggressively. This implies Motech may face more margin pressure as AE Polysilicon’s (over 10% stake owned by Motech) ramp-up in 2H09 may have less cost-reducing synergies for Motech. We cut our ESP forecasts by 27% for 2009 and 31% for 2010 and retain Hold.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Motech Industries 6244 茂迪 研究報告 - 德銀

Sino-American Silicon (中美晶 5483) - Deutsche Bank Research

Structural headwinds remain ; retain Hold

Estimate and TP cuts
We lower our EPS forecasts by 15% for 2009 and 32% for 2010 to reflect worsening solar end demand and rising margin pressure. Our surveys suggest that SAS may experience sharper ASP/margin erosion due to commoditized products, intensified pricing competition and further demand weakness. As the industry
should face more oversupply in 2009-10, SAS’ plans of vertical integration may have limited synergy. We reduce our TP from NT$70 to NT$53 and maintain Hold.

欲閱讀全文者請按 SAS Wafer 5483 中美晶 研究報告 - 德銀

01/20 新增

Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩 2357) - Goldman Sachs Research

“Crowding out” effect on MB may further dampen 2009 earnings

We think ASUSTeK has three potential risks in its brand business and one potential risk in ODM. The brand business may face: 1) high A/R, which could raise default risk; 2) high inventory, which may need another full quarter to digest; and 3) crowding-out effect on MB: inventory hikes in NBs and Eee PCs could start to hit MB demand, based on our channel checks. On the ODM side, our supply chain checks indicate ASUSTeK subsidiary Pegatron could lose market share to Hon Hai for HP’s 2009 DT order and Sony’s PS3 order. Based on these four issues, we lower our 1Q/2009/2010 profit forecasts by 90%/26%/5% to NT$0.3bn/NT$10bn/NT$15bn. ASUSTeK will hold a conf call on January 21 to update business outlook but will not report detailed 4Q08 results until Feb 12, when it will also hold an analyst meeting.

欲閱讀全文者請按 ASUS 2357 華碩 研究報告 - 高盛

Taiwan Fertilizer Co Ltd (台肥 1722) - Goldman Sachs Research

Slightly positive on urea, yet no strong earnings momentum; Sell

We believe the recent rebound in the share price was mainly triggered by positive market sentiment on the urea price as there is a high correlation (0.73 during the past 5 years) between the two. We note that the urea price has increased by around 14% to US$225/t during the past 3 weeks due to the Russian government cutting natural gas supply to Ukrainian producers, substantial production shutdowns in India because of strikes at several urea plants and 1Q generally being the peak season for fertilizer demand

欲閱讀全文者請按 1722 台肥 研究報告 - 高盛

02/10 新增

Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩 2357) - Merrill Lynch Research

Right direction but tough competition ahead

Alliance with Garmin for GPS smartphones
Asustek and Garmin today (4 Feb) announced a strategic alliance that will leverage expertise in phones and navigation to design, manufacture, and distribute co-branded location-centric smarthpones (Garmin-Asus nüvifone). The companies expect to introduce several models in 2009 and the first one will be announced in Mobile World Congress during February 16-19.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUSU 2357 華碩 研究報告 - 美林，另提供 Asus 2357 華碩 研究報告 - 花旗、AUSU 2357 華碩 研究報告 - 高盛 予各位一併參考。

MacVisit Optical (熒茂 4729) - Macquarie Research

Background

Mildex Optical, a leading industrial touch panel and polycarbonate (PC) ophthalmic lens manufacturer in Taiwan, will list on the over-the-counter (OTC) market on 24 February 2009 at NT$13.0, a 46% discount to today’s close price in the grey market. We provide an update on its business.

Mildex makes window lens (60%+ of 2008E sales), touch panel (20–25%) and PC ophthalmic (optical) lens (15–20%). Window lens are used in handset and NB displays to protect LCD panels from scratches and to reduce glare. With window lens, handsets/NBs no longer require plastic bezels to frame the edges of
displays and hence look more stylish, like Apple’s iPhone.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Mildex optical 4729 熒茂 研究報告 - MACQ

06/23 2009 新增

Asustek Computer Inc. (華碩 2357) - Morgan Stanley Research

Recovering but Structural Issues Cap Growth

Investment conclusion: We stay UW on Asustek but are raising our PT to NT$38 (or 15x one-year forward
P/E) from NT$25 as we have increased our 2009-10E EPS and reduced our COE estimates to factor in lower
credit and political risks. We believe the company’s efforts to rectify mis-execution will lead to a breakeven
2Q. However, we are concerned that the company is still affected by several structural issues that could partially offset the benefits from the PC replacement cycle and cap an earnings recovery. These issues include: 1) the market size of its cash-cow consumer MB business (~30% of profits) should continue to shrink given accelerated NB replacement over DT in the consumer PC space; 2) Asustek will have to adjust its premium pricing strategy for the NB business to cater to the lowprice PC trend, which implies that its GM may not be able to return to previous highs, and 3) conflict of interest issues remain as it still holds 100% of Pegatron/Unihan.

欲閱讀全文者請按 2357 華碩 研究報告-MS

Motech Industries Inc. (茂迪 6244) - Credit Suisse Research

Positive sentiments not supported by fundamentals

At the AGM, Motech guided June sales to grow 50-100% from May and 3Q demand to pick up, while the magnitude remains uncertain.
● Recent strong share performance, in our view, has been driven by increased oil price and expected government subsidy programmes in various countries. However, we remain cautious on the global oversupply for solar PV in 2009 and believe ASP decline should continue.
● We cut FY09-10E earnings by 57.4% and 36.2% to reflect the continuously declining ASP and margins. Motech’s YTD solar cell shipment has been a disappointing 100 MWp, accounting for only 25% of the lower end of the company guided 400-500 MWp. Our new earnings forecast already assumes an aggressive 2H09
recovery.
● We maintain our NEUTRAL rating for Motech and derive our target price of NT$94 (was NT$81) from 1.6x mid-2010E BVPS (was 10x FY09E EPS), due to the expected volatile earnings in FY09-10E. Among the solar companies under our coverage, we still favour Motech to others due to its built scale and better longterm
competitiveness. However, we suggest profit-taking here as current valuation is not supported by fundamentals.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Motech_6244_茂迪_CS

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要談現金殖利率之前，各位必須先瞭解何謂殖利率？

在債券市場中，『殖利率』是指投資債券持有至到期日這段期間的投資報酬率，對於政府債券而言，殖利率通常會是市場利率。因為是持有至到期日，所以又稱「到期殖利率(Yield To Maturity，YTM)」。殖利率也是用以計算債券價格時的折現率，殖利率上升，債券價格下跌，殖利率下降，債券價格上升。

舉例來說…某一個政府公債的票面利率為0%，票面金額為10萬元，剩下剛好一年到期，這表示如果你買入該債券，擺一年等到期，政府會給你10萬元。很顯然這種情況下，你願意買進這個政府公債的條件是…必須成交價在10萬元以下。

假設成交價是9萬元，那麼殖利率就是…

[到期日可領回的金額(面額+利息) - 債券買進總金額 ] ÷ 債券買進總金額 = (100,000 - 90,000) ÷ 90,000 ＝ 11.11％

因為零息債券沒有債息可領，所以到期日可領為的金額即為債券面額。從上例可以明顯看出殖利率與債券價格的反向關係，亦即殖利率上升代表著債券價格的下跌，殖利率下滑就代表著債券價格的上漲。另外，由於債券與銀行定期存款具備替代關係，因此利率與債券價格也呈現著反向關係。

瞭解何謂殖利率後，就可以開始談何謂現金殖利率？何謂股息殖利率？

『現金殖利率』這個名詞，廣泛的被使用在配發現金股息的公司身上，亦被稱之為現金股息殖利率！現金殖利率的計算只要將債券買進價格替換為股價即可，亦即….

現金殖利率(股息殖利率) = 現金股息 ÷ 買進價格

以矽品為例…97年董事會通過96年稀釋每股盈餘為5.77元，擬配發現金股利4.5元，股票股利0.1元，以3/21收盤價50.1元來計算…

4.5 ÷ 50.1＝8.98％ 

8.98%就是97年度矽品的現金殖利率 (股息殖利率)

現金殖利率 (股息殖利率) 較高所以可以買進？

矽品接近9％的現金殖利率，若跟目前銀行定存2.5％來比較，顯然高很多，所以用50.1元來買進十分值得？

先前政府公債的例子，政府一年後沒錢還給你的機率應該非常非常低吧，所以用9萬元買進公債，一年後拿到10萬元的機率應該等同於9999黃金的純度(政府高度舉債的國家例外)！但是矽品呢？你買進的是矽品的股票，而不是矽品的公司債，公司可沒有保證你買進一年後，股價依舊會在50.1元！另外，矽品也沒有保證…明年稀釋後每股盈餘(EPS)仍會跟今年的5.77元一樣！又或是明年仍會配發4.5元的現金股利！

上述就是本文所提現金殖利率的迷思！我們常看到媒體報導某某公司現金殖利率高達XX%，所以目前股價很便宜，又或是報章雜誌做了一個現金殖利率的排行榜，暗示著今年度高現金殖利率的個股屬於穩健投資的標的，然而這些都是錯誤的投資觀念，原因很簡單…..

1.今年度的高現金股息是因為去年度的獲利較高，而這不代表今年度的獲利能維持如此水準

2.今年度的現金股息配發比率不代表明年度也會維持一樣(明年公司可能想保留現金作為擴充營運之用)

以下是10/6經濟日報的某則報導….

台股上周受到國際情勢影響持續震盪，在不安的投資環境中，高現金股息殖利率個股重回投資焦點。法人表示，現金殖利率超過9%以上的公司，上周股價相對抗跌，多有上漲收紅的表現，建議投資人將焦點持續放在高股息題材的防禦特性上。

摩根士丹利、花旗環球等外資券商都建議投資人可在此時選股買進高股息個股，上周股價相對抗跌的個股包括塑化、航運和IC設計類股，如中纖、聯詠、凌陽、中強光電、南亞、台化、裕民、萬海等，股價都收紅。

分析師指出，股市尚未落底前，高現金概念股是不錯的資金避風港。

如果高股息殖利率代表空頭市場中具備防禦性(相對抗跌)，我們不以短期(一週)角度來衡量股價漲跌幅，改用三個月股價最大震盪幅度來看防禦效果的話，情況是如何呢？

該期間加權指數的震盪幅度是49.45%，而中纖從最高價13.2元跌到最低價3.86元，震盪幅度是70.76%，聯詠則是70%，華祺是59.26%，捷元是57.93%，海韻是84.21%，南亞是43.09%，裕民是68.31%，頎邦是70.47%，台化是40.28，中強是52.73%，凌陽是70.16%，萬海是54.01%。

經濟日報以一週的狀況來傳達高股息殖利率的個股具備防禦性，我們改用三個月的股價震盪幅度(因為震盪越大代表風險越高)來觀察的話，只有南亞跟台化的震盪幅度低於加權指數，亦即這三個月買進南亞與台化，虧損的幅度比大盤低，若是買進其他的個股呢？虧損的幅度將比加權指數(或台灣50 ETF)高。跌的越少、賠的越少，不才是真正的防禦性嗎？為何這12檔個股中只有台化與南亞這二檔個股真正具備防禦性呢？

現金殖利率 (股息殖利率) 何時具備參考價值？

1.未來收益具備高度確定性的企業(獲利不會乎高乎低)

2.有穩定的經營史(長達5~8年以上穩定的ROE與ROIC)

3.財務穩健

4.經營者理性、忠誠，始終以股東利益為先(避免財務報表作假)

5.資本支出少、自由現金流量充裕

同樣以上述的矽品為例，如果上述五個要點都符合了，那表示可以因為現金殖利率看來不錯而買進矽品嗎？答案還是…No，現金殖利率僅是買進的考量之一，投資股票主要的考量還是價格與價值的問題，換言之，價格 > 價值時不該買進，反而要賣出，尤其是價格>>價值 (>>代表…遠大於)，同理，價格 << 價值時，現金殖利率將是重要的參考因素！所以….現金殖利率的高與低，是買進的原因之一，也是增強你持有信心的動力之一，但是前提是該公司符合上述五項要點。

另外，值得一提的是….沒有配發現金股利的公司不表示它就是爛公司。例如巴菲特經營的波克夏海瑟威，從來都不配發現金股息….Why？因為他認為，將盈餘留在公司，公司幫投資人用錢滾錢的方式，對投資人較為有利，而他也證明了這一點，因為過去43年來，若從淨值成長率來看波克夏，該公司的平均年化複利報酬率是21.1%！不過這是一個特例，屬於世界罕見的特例。

相關文章

• 關於巴菲特 (五)
• 價值投資法的介紹(三)

Unimicron Technology 3037 欣興 - 野村 NOMURA Research

Our view
We see Unimicron’s fundamentals improving with easing margin pressure (due to NT dollar depreciation and falling raw material prices) and Nokia’s potential market share recovery in 4Q08F. Its lead in HDI PCBs should also give it solid footing in the downcycle. With the shares at trough levels, we upgrade to NEUTRAL.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Unimicron 3037 欣興 研究報告

Powerchip Semiconductor Corp. (力晶 ; 5346) - JPMorgan Research
Neutral
Record losses in 3Q08; maintain cautious stance

Maintain cautious stance, remain Neutral: We remain cautious on the memory space, given the sharply weakening demand environment, financing difficulties and erosion of book value. We expect a rebound sometime in 2009, but would favor Tier-1 DRAM makers in an upturn. Powerchip still needs a sharp rebound to come back into profitability and has to contend with debt repayments in the medium term. In addition, the sharp depreciation in the Korean Won makes Taiwan DRAM makers even less competitive. We maintain Neutral and cut our Dec-08 PT to NT$4.6 (0.6x FY08E book) from NT$7.50. A key risk is a faster-than-expected production cut at Tier-1 DRAM makers.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Powerchip 5346 力晶 研究報告 - JPMorgan

Powerchip (力晶 ; 5346) - Morgan Stanley Research
Working for Cash

Conclusion: Powerchip loses more money producing than if it does not produce at all. Its 3Q08 operating loss of NT$10 bn was larger than depreciation of NT$8.7 bn. At Debt/Equity of 186% (net Debt/Equity of 163%), on 0.4x P/B, equity shareholders only account for ~20% of Powerchip’s corporate value. To preserve cash, Powerchip will cut 2008 capex by ~70% Y/Y to NT$20 bn and cut 2009 capex by ~50% Y/Y to NT$10 bn.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Powerchip 5346 力晶 研究報告 - Morgan Stanley

Powerchip Semiconductor Corp. (力晶 ; 5346) - Merrill Lynch Research
PO lowered to NT$3.3;
Maintain Underperform

Cutting PO and EPS by 20-30%; reiterate Underperform
We lower our price objective for Powerchip Semiconductor to NT$3.3 from NT$4.0, and our 2009E EPS by 30%. 3Q results clearly reveal cash burn with a negative OP margin of 70% (vs MLe: -25%). Current DRAM spot price still shows poor margins, and we expect a weak chip pricing environment to continue into
1H09 despite chipmakers’ efforts to reduce their target production and capex spending. Demand is a new concern. We use trough cycle valuations. Reiterate Underperform.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Powerchip 5346 力晶 研究報告 - 美林

關於DRAM產業，正通投資團隊的看法請參考 DRAM 公司是不是一個好的投資標的？！

11/15 新增 Morgan Stanley對力晶的研究報告，欲閱讀全文者請按 Powerchip 5346 力晶

Largan Precision Co. Ltd. (大立光 ; 3008) - Merrill Lynch Research

Fundamentals intact

Catalyst for the stock
Given recent market turmoil, Largan’s share price has corrected around 20% in recent months, while still outperforming TAIEX by 12%. We expect the share price to be volatile in the near term due to market concern over handset growth. However, we believe Largan deserves a substantial valuation premium because it
offers a stronger earnings growth profile (funded from free cash), higher growth rate than its peers, and robust ROE.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Largan 3008 大立光 研究報告 ，另提供 Largan 3008 大立光 研究報告 - HSBC、Largan 3008 大立光 研究報告 - 花旗  予各位一併參考

Mediatek (2454 ; 聯發科) - Merrill Lynch Research

Reiterate Buy on solid fundamentals
While we slightly revised down our FY09 forecast anticipating weaker tech demand and micro headwind, we like Mediatek’s solid product portfolio and intact industry position. The company’s quality balance sheet and strong cash on hand should also provide good support during the downturn. We reiterate our Buy rating
on the company with a PO of NT$408, which is based on 17x FY09E EPS (from previous NT$450, 19x FY08/09E average EPS).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告

Mediatek (2454 ; 聯發科) - Macquarie Research

One step at a time

Price catalyst
12-month price target: NT$500.00 based on a PER methodology.
Catalyst: Better-than-expected results on 30 October and further market share gain from the ongoing industry consolidation.

Action and recommendation
We remain positive on MTK’s long-term outlook. In 2009–2010, MTK is likely to benefit from two (TD-SCDMA and WCDMA) out of the three 3-G platforms in the China telecom industry. With its financial strength and competitiveness, it is also likely to continue to gain more market share following the ongoing
global handset consolidation. Maintain Outperform.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 - MACQ ！10/31 聯發科 2454 更新 MediaTek 2454 聯發科 研究報告

ASE (2311 ; 日月光) - Deutsche Bank Research

Structural positives remain ; retain Buy

Attractive risk/reward
The stock trades at 1.1x 2009E PB, in line with 2001-03 trough. We believe it is oversold due to 1) 8-10% dividend yield, and 2) 2009E-10E average ROE of 18%, which is much higher than the average ROE of -4% during 2001-03. The stock has traded closely to net profit YoY and ROE, which we expect to bottom out from end-4Q08 and trend up in 1Q09. This implies that it should start to be re-rated over the next six months. Our new TP of NT$23 (from NT$34) is based on 1.8x 2009E PB, below 2006-07 average of 2.0x. This can be merited by 2009E-10E average ROE of 18%, slightly lower than 2006-07 average of 20%. Downside risks: slower progress in ramping China operations and weaker end-demand.

欲閱讀全文者請按 ASE 2311 日月光 研究報告

Chunghwa Telecom (中華電 ; 2412) - Macquarie Research

After defying gravity…coming down to earth

Action and recommendation
Our positive thesis on CHT and its top Asia-pick status were premised on its low-risk, stable cashflow and attractive yield. Recent results suggest a marginally more-competitive market than was previously assumed. More important, after the strong de-rating of the rest of the sector, CHT no longer seems as low risk due to its substantial relative valuation premium. Our change in TP methodology reflects our assessment that comparable peer multiples are likely to have a greater influence on stock price than our longterm
DCF valuation (which is NT$87). In Taiwan, we advocate a switch to Far EasTone, and regionally, we recommend a switch to the recently upgraded China Mobile and PT Telkom.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Chunghwa Telecom 中華電 2412 研究報告

Mitac International (神達 ; 2315) - Merrill Lynch Research

Another disappointing quarter ; Underperform

Further downside risks; reiterate Underperform
Mitac released disappointing 3Q08 preliminary pre-tax profits of NT$555mn (-2% QoQ; -70% YoY), ~40% below our estimates and BBG consensus. Given the weaker consumer spending ahead and poor 3Q results, we expect further downside risks to our current 2008/09 earning forecasts and PO (NT$17.55). Thus, we reiterate our Underperform rating, despite its already <1x P/B valuation.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Mitac International 2315 神達 研究報告

11/27 新增

Largan Precision Co. Ltd. (大立光 ; 3008) - Merrill Lynch Research

Even worse than expected

Lower 4Q guidance from flat to 15-25% QoQ decline
Largan issued a sales outlook warning today and lowered its 4Q guidance from flat QoQ to 15-25% QoQ sales decline given weaker than expected order flow from top-tier handset branders. In our latest report “More negatives to come” on 24 November 2008, we highlighted that many Motorola projects are pending or have been postponed due to its recent supply chain reshuffle and platform restructuring. Nokia’s order flow also seems to be falling on its negative view of the global handset industry. As Nokia and Motorola contribute more than 60% of Largan’s lens business, we expect to see a significant ~40% MoM sales decline in November.

欲閱讀全文者請按  Largan Precision 3008 大立光 研究報告 - Merrill Lynch，另提供 Largan Precision 3008 大立光 研究報告 - Goldman Sachs、Largan Precision 3008 大立光 研究報告 - 麥格里 予各位一併參考

Mediatek (2454 ; 聯發科) - UBS Research

L ack near-term catalysts; Cut PT

Cut PT to NT$330 under decelerating momentum
We cut our price target for Mediatek (MTK) from NT$420 to NT$330 under weaker momentum in Q408. We now project MTK to show 21% QoQ decline in Q408, lower than the company’s guidance of down 9-16%. We expect improvement into Q109 will also be limited under slow season effect. Thus, we don’t expect the share price to perform strongly in the near-term.

Valuation: PT NT$330 based on 15x 09E PER
We cut our price target from NT$420 to NT$330 under more conservative EPS target. Also, we previously used 17x PER to set our price target as we expected MTK to show 15%+ YoY growth. However, given weaker business outlook now (<10% YoY), we revised down our price target to 15x PER. EPS revision: from NT$21.37/24.66/28.66 to NT$20.66/22.22/25.36.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Mediatek 2454 聯發科- UBS

12/28 新增

Mitac International (神達 ; 2315) - Merrill Lynch Research

Magellan to be acquired by Mitac
On 15 December 2008, Mitac announced it had signed an agreement with Magellan Navigation Inc. to acquire the latter’s consumer product division for US$96mn. The deal will give Mitac control over Magellan’s brand, software, intellectual property, management team, customers, and retail channels. The transaction is likely to be closed in January 2009, when detailed financial terms are likely to be disclosed.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Mitac 2315 神達 研究報告 - 美林

01/20 新增

Mediatek (2454 ; 聯發科) - Merrill Lynch Research

Results likely to be in line with expectations
Mediatek announced its December sales of NT$5.1bn (-17.5% MoM, -2.9% YoY), bringing its 4Q08 sales to NT$20.5bn (-27%QoQ, flat YoY). This is better than its lowered guidance of -30-33% QoQ and consensus. Despite higher risks of inventory write-off and financial asset loss, we believe its 4Q08 earnings would fall
in line with our estimate of NT$3.7bn (-49% QoQ). We raised our 2008-2010 estimates by 0.4-3%

欲閱讀全文者請按 Mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 - 美林 ，另一併提供 Mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 - MACQ、Mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 - 里昂、Mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 - 高盛 予各位參考

Mitac International (神達 ; 2315) - Merrill Lynch Research

Further downward revision
BS and CF may deteriorate; revisit at end-1Q09
We expect Mitac to suffer deteriorated BS and CF in several quarters, given our concerns over (1) Mitac using debt-financing for Magellan deal (US$96mn), which will exacerbate its BS risk, and (2) a muted 1Q09E that will likely lead to continued cash burn (since 2Q08). Mitac’s current valuation at 9.6x 2009E P/E seems too rich to us, therefore, we retain our Underperform rating and would consider revisiting at end-1Q09.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Mitac 2315 神達 研究報告 - 美林

02/11 新增

Mediatek (2454 ; 聯發科) - Citi Research

Buy: Our Best Play in Semi Trough for Least Operating Leverage

Top Buy while peers report losses — Although Mediatek is not immune to the global demand downturn, we reiterate our Buy/Low Risk rating and raise our target price to NT$305 from NT$270. Given that it has no fab to affect its gross margin when sales decline 8-16% qoq, as guided, MediaTek’s 1H09E profits could be among the best in the sector.

欲閱讀全文者請按 mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 ，另一併提供 mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 - 高盛、mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 - Morgan Stanley、mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 - BNP、mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 - MACQ、 mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 - 德銀、mediatek 2454 聯發科 研究報告 - 美林予各位參考

Powerchip Semiconductor Corp. (力晶 ; 5346) - Goldman Sachs Research
Neutral

Promos’ ECB resolution would be positive for PSC, but risks remain

What’s changed
Commercial Times reported that Promos (5387.TWO; Not Covered) is likely to be granted with NT$5bn in new credit facility from 9 consortium local banks to fulfill its ECB repayment due by Feb 14. Although we view this news as negative for the industry as marginal players remain, we see this as positive for Powerchip (PSC) since financing concerns are likely mitigated. We expect PSC to benefit from the recent rally in DRAM spot price. Although we see some trading momentum on recent positive news flow, such as reduced supply resulting from Qimonda’s Chapter 11 filing and DRAM price increase, we think chasing the stock on the
recent share price rally is still risky without fundamental sector recovery.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Powerchip 5346 力晶 研究報告 - 高盛

Largan Precision Co. Ltd. (大立光 ; 3008) - Goldman Sachs Research

1Q as weak as it gets, but pixel migration may resume gradually

What’s changed
Largan reported in-line Jan sales of NT$338 mn (-1% mom, -44% yoy). The continued muted sales momentum seems to indicate that the handset inventory correction may not become worse, but there are no signs of sustainable demand recovery either, in our view. The potential near-term rush orders, as we have widely seen in the NB and LCD segments, do not seem to be obvious in the handset segment (at least not widely seen in the top 5 handset OEM circles).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Largan Precision 3008 大立光 研究報告 - 高盛

—————06/23 2009——————–

Largan Precision Co. Ltd. (大立光 ; 3008) - Morgan Stanley Research

Supply Caution a Plus; Keep
OW with Catalysts in Sight

Investment conclusion: We reiterate our positive call on Largan as it is still at the early stage of its upgrade
cycle. We do not have good visibility for real demand beyond 1H09 but, based on the general cautious tone
from the supply chain into 3Q, we expect handset OEMs to stay conservative on sell-through beyond 2Q. A likely softer 3Q off a strong 2Q (40%+ QoQ) should bode well for a robust 4Q with lower risk of significant de-stocking. We think Largan should grow in line with the industry with an inflection point (resuming YoY sales growth) in 4Q09. An improving top line should translate into earnings acceleration YoY from 4Q09. Our earnings upgrade is to reflect better 2Q sales from a higher assembly mix even though we conservatively model near-term margin volatility in 3Q due to the product mix change and NT dollar strength.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3008 大立光 研究報告-MS，另提供 3008 大立光 研究報告-Nomura 、3008 大立光 研究報告-ML一併參考！

Mediatek (2454 ; 聯發科) - Deutsche Bank Research

Intensifying challenges in new product cycles

Lack of solid growth drivers in 2010
We retain Sell on structural challenges including: 1) global handset makers’ more aggressive pricing strategies in 3G handsets; 2) limited market share upside due to higher entry barriers in the 3G handset chip market, market share saturation in the 2/2.5/2.75G handset chip market, and a declining addressable 2/2.5/2.75G handset market; 3) low possibility of penetrating global top-tier handset makers due to low
margins; 4) low revenue portion of Blu-ray chips and LCD TV controllers in 2010.

欲閱讀全文者請按 2454聯發科研究報告-DB

相關文章

• DRAM 公司是不是一個好的投資標的？！