正通投資團隊 - 投資台股的專家

2009年的選股重點

admin — Tue, 30 Dec 2008 03:19:00 +0000

元朝末年，中國北方仍由元軍掌控，南方則由陳有諒、張士誠等反抗軍所掌控，朱元璋當時只是起義軍的一小股，在成功攻占徽州之後，曾親自來到石門山拜訪老儒朱升，討教治國平天下之策。朱升高瞻遠矚，送了他三句話：「高築牆，廣積糧，緩稱王。」

當時朱元璋雖然佔領了徽州，其實力仍然遜於其他的義勇軍，因此朱升建議他高築城牆採取守勢，並藉機擴充兵力，同時要鼓勵農耕儲備糧食，不圖虛名暫不稱王，以避免成為元軍與其他義勇軍攻擊的目標。這三句共九個字，成了指導朱元璋奪取天下、建立大明王朝的行動綱領。

如果我們將元朝末年的情境，跨越時空與環境將它並成某個產業各個公司的競爭狀態後，是否歷史真能成為一面鏡子，在金融風暴肆虐後的今天，幫助我們找出2009年優質的投資標的呢？

誠如巴菲特所言：『退潮時我們將可看到誰在裸泳』，這句話屬於負面批判，換到正面的角度來思考，不就是李世民所云的『疾風知勁草、板蕩識忠臣』嗎？

一個成功的企業經營者，必須具備高瞻遠矚的眼光與胸懷，因此『高築牆』中的牆，可以轉化為企業的城牆，也就是所謂的競爭力。在關於巴菲特 (七)這篇文章中，巴菲特曾說：『我想要的生意外面得有個城牆(或護城河)，居中是價值不菲的城堡，而我要負責的、能幹的人才來管理這個城堡。』，其中所謂的城牆(或護城河)，就是企業阻隔競爭對手進行價格或市場佔有率競爭的條件。

Cost Down是永遠的現在進行式，這是日本企業對於成本管理的態度(例如Kaizen Cost Management)，如果我們將這個態度擴大到整個城牆的建立，那麼不管是成本管理、製程與設備的更新、技術研發、IP(Intellectual Property)的申請…等，都是城牆建立的基石，而高築牆的行為，不是只有在經濟衰退時要努力，而是無論景氣處在成長或衰退的階段，都必須持續進行。

一家公司是否具備競爭力，並不是一定要景氣處在衰退階段才能看出。舉例來說，基本金屬與塑化原物料價格在2008年年中達到最高峰，在此之前，景氣仍舊處於熱絡的狀態，然而中下游相關業者卻面臨製造成本攀升的龐大壓力，多數的經營者採取建立高庫存的方式來因應，這是治標不治本的方法，縱使低價庫存可以使企業單季獲利大躍增，但是當原物料價格反轉之後，高庫存反成會造成大幅度的虧損。這一點現在正反映在台灣的鋼鐵、塑化、橡膠等諸多傳統產業中，我們可以從財務報表中毛利率與存貨跌價損失這二個部分看出。

囿於客戶權益的保障，我們不會在文章中提及目前客戶投資的個股與觀察中的個股，所以那些傳產公司在景氣熱絡階段持續在進行高築牆的動作，各位必須自行去尋找，可以提醒各位的是….從財務報表中的毛利率、存貨跌價損失、固定資產變動狀態與研發費用等部分仔細觀察即可。

『廣積糧』中的糧食，在觀察企業這方面，可以將它替換為現金。懂得在景氣熱絡階段儲備現金的經營者，在金融風暴肆虐後的今天，至少可以讓企業安然度過不景氣的階段。舉例來說，美國大型家具業者 Linens’N Things宣告申請破產，這表示Bed Bath & beyond Inc. 的競爭對手又少了一位；同樣的Best Buy再也不用和Circuit City進行削價競爭了；另外，DHL宣佈明年1月底結束美國國內業務，這代表 FedEx的北美市場不用再與它人分享。

上述是廣積糧作為被動守勢的效用，如果是主動出擊呢？以Wells Fargo & Co. (波克夏持有的富國銀行)為例，它在不景氣階段透過優良的經營模式逆勢成長，在美國金融體業正低迷之時，該間銀行的成功一直為外界津津樂道，而且Wells Fargo收購Wachovia Corp. 一案，將會替該銀行在全美21州擴展3300間分行，讓 Wells Fargo得以首度跨越密西西比河東邊的市場，面臨的挑戰也比競爭對手要少許多。

由於消費者支出銳減，所以美國零售業處在激烈的淘汰賽裡，像家庭用品連鎖店The Bombay與 Sharper Image Corp.都已經宣告結束營業，老牌百貨店 Mervyns更關門大吉，但是Kohl’s與Forever 21這二家公司，於上週五表示他們將聯手以625萬美元購得 Mervyns全美46間分店的位置，其中Kohl’s接收31家分店， Forever 21則接手剩下的15家。

因此擁有足夠現金部位的公司，在目前不景氣的階段，至少具有以下優勢：

1.藉由競爭對手的結束營業或業務大幅萎縮之際，搶佔客戶與市場佔有率

2.透過併購競爭對手，直接取得其客戶、IP、品牌與設備。

3.具備持續更新製程、設備與R&D的能力，在迎接另一波景氣來臨前搶佔更有利的位置

4.在2009年仍具有配發穩定現金股利的能力

5.可以在此時提出相對優渥的條件吸引優質人才

最後要提的是『緩稱王』這個策略。在一個寡佔或獨佔性競爭的產業中，我們經常看到的情況是….A公司以低價搶單，試圖擴大其市場佔有率，隨後競爭對手B公司提出更具吸引力的價格，挖走A公司另一個大客戶。低價搶單的狀況最常出現在以OEM為主的公司，例如NB、手機….等電子次產業。

過去處在經濟泡沫階段的日本鋼鐵業，由於資金取得容易，因此大規模擴充產能，並且用低價傾銷海外的方式搶佔市場佔有率，就算賠本也要擊垮競爭對手，這種傷敵一千自傷八百的策略，其結果就是景氣反轉後公司面臨破產窘境。

企業意圖在市場中稱王的狀況，也經常出現在新興產業當中，例如LED與太陽能產業。二年前德國的OSRAM與日本的日亞化相繼對台灣廠商授權其白光LED專利技術，台廠為了搶佔白光LED市場的龐大商機，紛紛大規模擴充產能，於由關鍵技術掌握在別人手中，加上OSRAM與日亞化對外授權的廠商逐漸增加(收取權利金並且坐山觀虎鬥，將風險轉嫁給其他廠商，其狀況類似DRAM產業中的奇夢達與爾必達)，最後導致產能大幅超出市場需求，原本的供不應求瞬間轉變成供過於求，相關廠商紛紛面臨大幅虧損的窘境。

太陽能產業中的矽晶圓與模組這二個次產業也是明顯的例子，2007年由於油價持續高漲，替代能源成為歐美國家積極補貼的項目，於是訂單突如其來的暴增。雖然太陽能的發展已經有數十年的歷史，但是油價高漲之後，太陽能產業才湧入大批的投資資金，現有模組廠的訂單都已經排到9～12個月後的情況下，新進者所需的技術與設備，取得困難度並不高，所以新加入的競爭者如過江之鯽(建廠所需時間約半年)，而上游的矽晶圓也紛紛大幅度擴充產能(建廠所需時間約二年)。

新加入與舊有的模組廠為了搶佔市場與鞏固料源，紛紛與上游矽晶圓業者簽訂價格昂貴的長期合約，而矽晶圓業者在資金與未來訂單有恃無恐的情況下，亦紛紛展開大規模擴產。然而太陽能產業發展上的突飛猛進，主要因素是高漲的油價，當經濟開始出現衰退後，持續高漲的油價已不是反映市場需求，充其量只是市場的資金在炒作罷了。

故事的發展與歷史軌跡相契合，經濟持續的衰退使得油價更大幅度的回檔，太陽能的替代能源需求逐漸褪去，相關業者原本是只管生產不管需求(因為產品只要出的來，排隊買的人一堆)，現在尋找訂單的急迫性成為廠商首要之務了。

急著稱王使得廠商在景氣熱絡階段低價搶單，抑或是大幅度擴充產能以因應未來”可能的需求”，此時廠商眼中根本無視於高築牆、廣積糧的基本功，而景氣反轉向下之後，矮牆與缺糧的窘境，迫使著它們兵敗如山倒。

2009年的選股重點就在『高築牆，廣積糧，緩稱王』這九個字，雖然08年的景氣衰退只能用慘澹二字形容，但這也提供給投資者一個絕佳的契機，因為這種情況下最容易看出城牆高築的企業，而且它們的價格也普遍低於合理價值，未來只要景氣稍稍好轉，這些企業的營運狀況將會率先衝出重圍，並且更上一層樓。

別等景氣落底或復甦才進場買股票

admin — Mon, 08 Dec 2008 17:39:00 +0000

最壞的情況還沒出現！未來將有更大型的企業會倒閉！失業率在未來幾個月仍會持續上升！屋奴與卡奴人數將會持續上升！……諸如此類的經濟數據與預測，都讓投資人舉足不前，寧可選擇將現金存放在最安全的定存。然而，確定景氣開始好轉之後再進場買股，會是一個好辦法嗎？

雖然按照傳統的定義，衰退是指國內生產毛額(GDP)連續在兩個季度出現萎縮，但是在今年的12月1日，美國國家經濟研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research ; NBER)卻表示，美國經濟陷入衰退已有約一年的時間。美國國家經濟研究局的一份公告中指出，該機構下屬的商業週期測定委員會已認定美國經濟於2007年12月陷入衰退，這同時也標誌開始於2001年11月的經濟擴張期的正式結束，而2001年11月是上一次美國經濟衰退的結束時間。(註：由於對於衰退的定義不同，歐洲與日本的經濟學家認為美國是從2008年第二季才開始出現經濟衰退的)

此外該委員會警告稱，這次衰退有可能創二次大戰後最長衰退紀錄，其對經濟的破壞作用可能比自1980年以來的任何一次衰退都大。

這個訊息提供我們一個思考的方向…是否景氣高點與指數的高點，二者出現的時間是一致的？我們從美國道瓊工業指數(Dow Jones Index)、S&P 500 指數可以看到，它們最高點出現的時間在2007年的10月11日，至於Nasdaq指數則是在同年的10月31日。

從這一點似乎讓我們稍微理出一點頭緒，那就是股市是經濟的櫥窗，亦即股市會提前反映經濟景氣的狀況。這個觀念確立之後，我們再來思考衍生的幾個問題….

經濟衰退的時間大概會有多久？

既然股市會領先景氣衰退而下跌，那麼股市會領先景氣復甦而上漲嗎？領先的時間長度又是如何？

隨之而來的復甦，腳步是又快又猛還是緩步上揚？

國家經濟研究局在這次的公告中指出，衰退是整體經濟活動持續數月顯著下滑，有關生產、就業、實際收入等方面的指標能清晰地體現出這一點。該商業週期測定委員會並不用傳統意義上的定義來衡量衰退，而是通過對持續一段時期的經濟顯著型下降作為衡量的標準，這一下降包括GDP、就業率、工業生產、銷售以及收入等指標。

這次的經濟衰退主要因素來自於金融風暴，鑑往知來：全球歷史重大金融危機面面觀這篇文章可以提供各位參考，而各位也會發現，第三個問題根本找不到答案，因為金融危機引發的經濟衰退，其產生原因、規模、連動效果、政府政策都不盡相同，自然經濟衰退的時間也不同，短則一年左右，長可至十年左右，時間的長短視政府挽救措施而定。

我們提供讀者以下三個考量的面向予各位參考。

A.金融風暴的濫觴是衍生性金融商品，隨後引起銀行的流動性危機，然而在政府積極介入後，這個問題已經獲得十分有效的控制，(可從…衡量銀行現金需求程度的3個月美元LIBOR與隔夜指數交換利率(OIS)的Libor-OIS價差較高點大幅度下滑看出)。用更白話的方式來描述，就是這個面向如同棒球賽已經進入到第八局或第九局了。

B.金融風暴後續引發的信用卡與消費性貸款壞帳問題，目前雖然仍未有效解決，但是其規模相對於衍生性金融商品而言小了許多，其發展應該可以說進入到棒球賽的第五局。

C.消費者支出下滑所產生的需求不足問題，浮出檯面未久，可以說進入到棒球賽的第三局而已。這個面向所需解決的時間，要觀察政府刺激景氣的方式與效果而定了。

當各位思考完這三個面向後，接著再來看下面這段敘述…

自二次大戰以來，美國計出現了十次經濟衰退，平均期間為10.4個月，範圍則自1980年衰退的6個月至1981至82年間的16個月不等，如果按照這個方式來估計，那麼這次衰退期間的終點，較可能落在2009年的年中。

然而，按照國家經濟研究局的公告，這波經濟衰退實際已持續了十二個月，且尚未明顯觸底，所以持續的期間，可能會超過1973~1975年與1981~1982年這二次的衰退期間–16個月。(註：從1929年8月到1933年3月的大蕭條時期，經濟經歷了近43個月的衰退。)

從上述的角度搭配各國政府為了刺激景氣所採取的大動作來思考的話，大致會在2009年的年中之後，至於是第三季或第四季，甚至會不會拖到2010年以後？十個經濟學家會有十一個答案，各位就別費心去猜了，而且根本沒必要去猜(請參考關於巴菲特的相關文章)。

現在，我們回過頭來看第二與第三個問題。

官方經濟數據的特徵通常是緩慢、後知後覺，永遠會與現實狀況落後一大截，比如說美國民眾已經感受好一段時間的「經濟衰退」，直到一年後才被國家經濟研究局所公告，加上股市向來反應的是前景，亦即股市的供需面來自於投資人對於未來的預期，因此股市所呈現的是領先官方經濟數據的現象，也就是所謂「股市是經濟的櫥窗」。

從1980~1984年與 1973~1976年二戰後兩次美國時間較長的經濟衰退中，失業率與 S&P 500指數走勢所呈現的是…當 S&P 500指數開始走高後，官方公佈的失業率數字才攀升到高點。顯然，歷史在告訴我們，通常在失業率飆升之前，股市已出現復甦之態。

就以1980那年的經濟衰退為例，當失業率在1982年11月攀上高峰， S&P 500 從低點反彈的幅度共計已經高達38%。從另外一份統計資料也顯示，最近數十年來，指數的低點領先GDP、失業率、銷售收入等經濟數據4～6個月不等。

所以第二個問題的答案已經有了，那就是指數會領先景氣復甦而上漲，而且領先的時間約是4～6個月。就這一點我們必須提醒各位，這裡提到的是指數而不是個股，個股有些更早領先指數做反映，有些則是落後指數做反映，因此當投資人確定景氣復甦後，才想進場買股票，恐怕有不少個股已經先行上漲超過50%了。

最後一個問題則是景氣復甦的腳步是快或慢？我們的看法偏向於緩慢這一方，因為這次金融風暴雖為主因，但是除了金融產業外，科技產業、汽車產業、塑化產業….等產業皆陷入泥淖，影響的範圍與力道相較一般的經濟衰退有所不同，所以景氣復甦的腳步應該會緩慢復甦才是。

最後，我們做了以下幾點結論，提供各位參考：

股市的表現會領先經濟數據，別等到景氣復甦後才準備進場，因為屆時勢必買在相對(底部的)高點。
無須預測這次景氣何時會落底，因為沒人猜的準。
選股的重要性遠高於選市，對於自己不熟悉的產業與公司，勿輕易買進持有。
宜以長期投資的觀念來面對股價的落底與回升。
此次的全球性金融風暴，極可能是你一輩子唯一遇到的一次，就如同經歷過1930年代經濟大蕭條的人目前所剩無幾一般，錯過了這次危機入市的好機會，這輩子恐怕沒有第二次機會了。

全球金融風暴紀事

股神巴菲特這次將晚節不保？

admin — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 05:58:52 +0000

股價在兩個月內腰斬；公司「AAA」級債券的違約保護成本，飆升至信用評級為「BBB」甚至垃圾級公司的水平；因為主要業務獲利下滑與投資虧損，今年第三季的獲利大降77%。

雖然這樣的消息，在全球金融風暴肆虐與經濟不景氣的今天來看已經見怪不怪，但如果告訴你這是巴菲特掌舵的波克夏(Berkshire Hathaway Inc.)公司近期表現的話，恐怕各位仍會感到十分驚訝。

圖一波克夏股價走勢圖

即使已經被冠上了「股神」的頭銜，巴菲特的旗下公司的市場表現還是讓大家議論紛紛。除了搬出以前巴老錯過的網路泡沫和過早拋售中石油的例子外，評論家們還對他大手筆收購高盛的做法提出了質疑(波克夏以50億美元取得股息為10%的優先股，還承諾未來再耗資50億美元買進認購價格為115美元/股的認股權證)，當時高盛股價仍在百元以上，到目前為止，高盛股價已經又跌了超過四成！

另外，波克夏在9月30日以48.5億美元的價格，出售四大指數的衍生性金融商品合約給被保密的客戶，波克夏承諾在特定期限內，保障買方因標準普爾500指數(S&P 500 index) 等四大全球股市指數下跌衍生的損失，相關合約將在2019年至2027年間到期。理論上，如果合約到期時，相關指數位置低於投資者投保的位置時，波克夏將賠付大約370.4億美元，截至9月30日止，波克夏公司已減記合約價值67.3億美元(做為資產減損)。
。

因為這些合約的影響，波克夏的「信用違約交換」（credit-default swaps，簡稱CDS）價格，曾經一度上漲到接近垃圾級債券的水準(註：信用違約機率越高的公司，CDS的價格越高，反之亦然)，11月24日，巴菲特通過其秘書Debbie Bosanek發出一封郵件，信中指出波克夏2008年的年報將公佈其衍生品估值的各個方面的細節，並將論述衍生品定價公式的不足，在此之前，”我們從不用這些公式”。

巴菲特在電子郵件中解釋，如果要想波克夏全部負擔355億美元的債務損失，那麼包括S&P 500在內的四大指數必須全部跌至0。對這一債務損失的估計在9月30日本來是370億美元，由於最近的匯率波動，這一數字已經有所減少。

巴菲特真的廉頗老矣嗎？看看被尊稱為股神的巴菲特發跡歷史，我們可以發現…巴菲特正在重複35年前的故事。

1972年，越戰之後的美國再次經歷了經濟危機(物價和油價共漲、失業率與經濟衰退齊飛)，正當美國民眾呼天搶地之時，一度失意的巴菲特卻盯上了報業這個金礦，他發現擁有一家市佔率高的報刊，就好似擁有一座收費橋樑，任何過路者都必須留下買路錢。1973年開始，他悄悄地在股市上蠶食《波士頓環球》和《華盛頓郵報》。而兩報的利潤也真的達到年增長35%的奇跡，10年之後，巴菲特投入的1000萬美元增值為二億。可以想見的是，當年還未名聲大噪的巴菲特一定遭到了更多的非議！

如果所有的投資行為都和一般投資人一樣的話，巴菲特還能脫穎而出成為「股神」嗎？

其實，大多數介紹巴菲特的書籍或網路文章，都會提到巴菲特的投資原則(或投資法則)，事實上他也一直身體力行實踐著(請參閱關於巴菲特)，如果我們站在事後諸葛亮的角度，將焦點集中在價值投資法上，很明顯的是….巴菲特透過價值投資法所買進的企業，在中長期的公司營運績效與股價報酬率表現上，都令人讚賞。當然，無可諱言的是….不是每件投資案都能獲利，甚至經常資金投入不久後便面臨套牢窘境，然而時間只要拉長來看，報酬率都令投資人刮目相看(請參閱關於巴菲特 (一))

正通投資團隊認為，今年波克夏的獲利下滑注定是無可挽回了，但是它投資的相關公司，營業利潤依舊豐厚，並且可以肯定會在未來維持不變！箇中原因其實不難理解，當全球經濟景氣處在衰退階段，單一公司很難置身事外，何況波克夏投資的公司橫跨金融、保險、能源、運輸、食品….等產業，然而這些公司的競爭力與獲利能力，在目前不景氣之際，依舊是同業間的佼佼者。經濟衰退不可能永遠的持續下去，一旦景氣再度恢復成長，這些公司仍將是未來投資人所追逐的標的。

或許部分的投資人已經發現巴菲特的韜略與價值投資法的精髓，但是我們認為這始終是少數，這一點可以從目前台灣股市所呈現的狀況看出，我們將這些現象歸納為以下幾點：

1.縱使投資人贖回海外基金匯回國內，高達新台幣四千億元以上的游資，皆轉存於銀行體系中，並未進行再投資的動作。

2.市場預期這一波的景氣衰退仍未到達谷底，換言之，最壞的情況仍未出現。

3.投資人對於未來股市的樂觀悲觀比率，仍處於下跌狀態

4.外資與內資所出具的研究報告，明顯呈現調降評等、目標價的比例高於調高評等、目標價的比例。

正通投資團隊希望透過本文向讀者提醒，在過去的一年中，超過八成的投資人產生重大虧損，這些投資人如果投資的方式不改變，未來投資的結果仍將不變。

股神巴菲特這次將晚節不保？正通投資團隊給各位讀者的答案是….歷史上歷次的金融危機與經濟衰退，所產生的原因皆不盡相同，但是價值投資法卻能走過所有的逆境，這一次也將不例外。

台聚 / 台苯 / 東聯 / 福懋 / 台橡 / 裕民 / 汽車產業

admin — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 10:42:07 +0000

以下為本週外資研究報告中，關於台聚 1304、台苯 1310、東聯 1710、福懋 1434、台橡 2103、裕民2606、汽車產業等研究報告。提供各位建立產業與相關公司的基礎認知，切勿作為個人買賣依據或對外散播。

研究報告更新的方式是直接將更新內容附加在本頁最下方，請隨時留意是否有外資更新內容的狀況。

USI (台聚 1304) - Macquarie Research

Bracing for a difficult FY09

We reduce our target price for polyethylene (PE) producer USI to NT$7 from NT$12 after reducing our valuation of its long-term investment portfolio and reducing our earnings outlook. We believe the demand outlook has worsened. In combination with this, we believe new Middle East PE capacity next year will be a significant challenge for USI. We maintain our Underperform rating.

We maintain our Underperform rating for USI. Although its P/BV multiple has declined to 0.6x for FY08E, this is still above its 2001 trough level of 0.4x. We believe the pressures in this downturn will be greater than in 2001 and look for further downward pressure on the share price.

欲閱讀全文者請按 USI 1304 台聚研究報告 - 麥格里

Taiwan Styrene Monomer (台苯 1310) - Macquarie Research

Very difficult outlook

We reduce our Taiwan SM target price to NT$5 from NT$11 after reducing our earnings outlook and reducing our valuation of its long-term investment portfolio. We believe the outlook for the company has deteriorated and that a decline in the global economy will place further pressure on the company and the share price. We now look for Taiwan SM to post losses in FY08–10E, rather than just in FY09E, which was our previous projection. We maintain our Underperform rating on the stock.

We maintain our Underperform rating on Taiwan SM. The stock’s P/BV trough prior to late 2007 was 0.9x in 2001, but we believe the 2009–10 period will be more challenging than 2001 and the company’s longer-term prospects have deteriorated since then in light of a shift in the industry toward larger and more integrated complexes. At our target price the stock would be at 0.5x P/BV.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Styrene Monomer 1310 台苯研究報告 - 麥格里

Formosa Taffeta (福懋 1434) - Macquarie Research

Weighed down by investments

We reduce our target price for Formosa Taffeta to NT$15 from NT$20, primarily due to lower market values and target prices for its listed investments. We’ve also reduced our EBIT outlook, as we see a morechallenging outlook for the textile and tyre segments into which it sells. We maintain our Underperform rating.

We retain our Underperform rating for Formosa Taffeta. We believe a decline in the share price of FPCC will place further downward pressure on its share price. We also look for declining conditions ahead for its fabric and nylon tyre cord operations.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Formosa Taffeta 1434 福懋研究報告 - 麥格里

Oriental Union Chemical (東聯 1710) - Macquarie Research

Weak demand facing new capacity
We reduce our Oriental Union Chemical (OUCC) target price to NT$11 from NT$16 after cutting our EBIT projections. We believe the demand outlook is more challenging than we had previously projected. Amid a very weak demand environment, we expect added stress to be supplied by rapidlyapproaching new ethylene glycol (EG) capacity the Middle East. We look for the combination to produce a substantial decline in OUCC’s earnings. We maintain our Underperform rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Oriental Union Chemical 1710 東聯研究報告 - 麥格里

TSRC (台橡 2103) - Macquarie Research

A hard road ahead

We reduce our target price for synthetic rubber producer TSRC to NT$18 from NT$31 after significantly reducing our FY09 and FY10 EPS outlook and increasing the downcycle discount to sum-of-the-parts-based target price to 20% from 10%. We believe the challenges ahead for raw material suppliers to the global tyre industry have increased. We maintain our Underperform rating for TSRC.

欲閱讀全文者請按 TSRC 2103 台橡研究報告 - 麥格里

Taiwan Autos Sector (台灣汽車產業研究報告) - Merrill Lynch Research

Government’s new policy is of limited help, in our view

Still negative on Taiwan auto industry
We maintain our negative view on Taiwan’s auto industry and reiterate our Underperform ratings on Hotai Motor and China Motor for two reasons: (1) the government’s proposed policy to save the industry appears to be of limited help, and (2) domestic vehicle demand remains fragile with no signs of recovery. We lower our PO on Hotai Motor to NT$54.5, from NT$68, due to a 14% earnings cut and reduced P/E multiple from 13x 2009E EPS to 12x 2009E EPS, which is the historical trading average. We also cut our PO on China Motor to NT$11.3, from NT$14, on 0.35x 2009E P/BV, due to a 5% earnings cut.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Auto Sector 台灣汽車產業研究報告 - Merrill Lynch

U-Ming (2606 裕民) - Merrill Lynch Research

Capesize rates capsize

PO cut 75% to NT$22.5 as capesize rates fall 99% in 6mths
Capesize rates have been the worst affected by the commodity slump, with rates plunging 99% since May. U-Ming’s focus on this segment (around 68% of its bulk capacity is in capesize vessels) is clearly negative for the stock. We cut our 2008- 10 estimates and lower our price objective from NT$91 to NT$22.50.

Earnings set to collapse as charter agreements expire
The capesize market is in crisis as large stockpiles of iron ore at Chinese ports, the credit crunch and a global recession has resulted in spot rates diving from $235K/day to just $2,800. This is well below even cash breakeven levels, as operators seek cargoes at any price. U-Ming’s long-term contracts offer only
temporary protection. We cut our 2008 estimates by 10% and 2009-10 by ~85%.

欲閱讀全文者請按 U Ming 2606 裕民研究報告 - 美林

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投資的第一堂課-認識風險 (下)

austin — Thu, 20 Nov 2008 04:07:13 +0000

在投資的第一堂課-認識風險 (上)這篇文章中，我們對於風險給予了基本定義(風險就是不確定性)，也將風險歸類為二種，一是價格的不確定性(價格風險)，二是價值的不確定性(價值風險)。

今天我們主要探討的是”價值“的不確定性如何影響”價格“的不確定性。

現在的有錢人代表未來也是有錢人嗎？多數人對於這個問題，會給予否定的答案，同樣的，把這個邏輯應用在公司獲利上也是如此，今年度的優異獲利表現，不代表明年度也會是如此。換句話說，今年度獲利表現不錯的公司，不代表投資這家公司的風險比較低，甚至很多情況下，投資這家公司的風險反而會比較高。

我們直接以實例來說明這個情況。

年度	2007	2006	2005	2004	2003	2002	2001	2000
營業收入淨額	10,130	5,735	3,748	3,343	3,262	2,259	2,065	2,812
本期稅後淨利	1,977	747	322	198	384	162	154	369
每股盈餘(元)	7.53	3.24	1.52	1.01	2.25	1.02	1.22	3.77

上面是兆赫(2485)最近八個年度的營收與獲利彙整表，如果我們單就每股盈餘(EPS)來觀察，這八個年度都是獲利狀態，而且最近四年的每股盈餘(EPS)呈現強勁的上升趨勢，似乎兆赫可以被歸納為獲利表現十分優異的公司。然而站在獲利穩定性的角度而言，兆赫的每股盈餘(EPS)呈現極大的不穩定性。

單就2000年與2001年的EPS而言，我們看到兆赫從3.77元快速下滑到1.22元，萎縮的比例達67.64%，換句話說，如果用簡單的本益比(PER ; P/E Ratio)評價法來衡量這家公司的價值，很顯然兆赫的價值在2001年下滑了67.64%。

上圖是兆赫2000年至2001年的股價週線圖，兆赫的股價在不到一年的時間由最高價319元下跌到42.4元，跌幅高達86.71%。

我們再回過頭來觀察2004年到2007年兆赫的EPS表現，從EPS的成長率來看，2005、2006與2007年這三個年度分別是50.5%、113.16%與132.41%，表現確實十分優異，但是如果從另一個角度來思考，這家公司的EPS成長率是否太高了？在2001年兆赫曾經出現67.64%的負成長(衰退)，甚至在2004年也出現過55.11%的負成長，雖然05~07年出現EPS的高成長，是否08年極有可能再度出現負成長呢？

以兆赫所公布的08年前三季EPS來看，前三季累計EPS為3.88元(年初有除權使股本膨脹)，還原除權息後，股價是從08年的高點100.18元下跌至目前的21.4元，跌幅高達78.64%，如下圖所示。

很顯然的因為08年的EPS成長率為負成長，所以股價做了修正，而市場預期09年EPS仍將出現負成長，所以股價被大幅度壓低。

2007年兆赫的EPS高達7.53元，很多投資人將兆赫視為獲利績優股，當股價從百元以上下跌到50元後，投資人會誤以為此時低價買進這種績優股風險很低，可是實際上兆赫跌破50元後又跌了57.2%，風險其實並不低。

一家公司的獲利成長固然是正面表現，但是太高幅度的成長，其實也隱含未來可能有大幅度的衰退，換言之，獲利的穩定性，其重要性比高幅度的獲利成長更重要，有那個投資人希望買進一家公司，去年度EPS是賺五元，今年度EPS是賠三元呢？

當然，如果你運氣好，在某一個年度賠三元之際買進，隔年度該公司獲利五元，股價上出現大幅度上漲，使你的投資獲利豐厚，這當然是好事，但是所謂的風險(不確定性)，就是你可能面臨的情境與機率，運氣好的情境是隔年獲利五元，運氣不好的情境是隔年繼續虧損，而且虧損高達七、八元甚至公司宣布破產。

投資上，倒楣的情境雖然出現的機率比順利的情境稍低，但是只要遇到一次，就足以讓許多投資人血本無歸。半年前誰認為雷曼兄弟會倒閉？誰認為保險業巨擘AIG會因為財務危機需要美國政府金援？誰猜的到今年友達的股價會從63.5元下跌到歷史新低的17.8元？誰又知道今年奇美的股價會從45.35元下跌到7.61元呢？

現在DRAM廠商的力晶、茂德、南科、華亞科等四家公司，全都被列入雞蛋水餃股，過去這都屬於傳統產業公司才會出現的情況，現在DRAM廠商全都遭遇到了，而且也深深的陷入財務危機當中。相關文章請參考DRAM 公司是不是一個好的投資標的？！、面板製造公司( TFT LCD )是一個好的投資標的？！

在此我們要強調二個很重要的投資觀念。

1.股價一定會反映基本面的狀況，價值出現高估或低估的情況，雖然持續的時間會多久無法肯定，但是能夠確定的是…高估或低估的情況勢必在一段時間後消失。站在投資的角度上，這個觀念告訴我們，如果能找到價值被低估，甚至被嚴重低估的個股來投資，其實隱含未來確定性極高的報酬率。

2.基於第一點，投資人必須尋找獲利穩定性較高的公司，因為在估計它們的價值時，獲利穩定性高隱含著估計錯誤的機率低。

從第一點我們可以說….縱使去年度或當年度某家公司的獲利(或EPS)呈現高度成長，但是獲利的不穩定性，顯示的是這家公司的價值不確定性越高，而價值的不確定性會反映在股價的中長期表現上，這將造成價格的不確定性偏高，也就是投資時面對的風險將會比較高，而不是比較低。

風險所代表的不是僅有虧損這個情境，而是投資上的獲利與虧損二種情境同步比較，講的更白話一點，高風險除了代表高報酬之外，也代表了高虧損的可能狀況，從規避風險這個角度來看，高報酬與高風險都是投資人所要避免的，只有投機才會樂於享受這樣的高風險。

台積電 / 新普 / 元太 / 南電 / 台塑化 / 正文 / 力成 / 台塑 / 華寶

austin — Sat, 15 Nov 2008 09:07:26 +0000

以下為本週外資研究報告中，關於台積電 2330、新普 6121、元太 8069、南電 8046、台塑化 6505與台塑集團等個股、正文 4906、力成 6239、華寶 8078等公司研究報告。提供各位建立產業與相關公司的基礎認知，切勿作為個人買賣依據或對外散播。

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC 台積電 2330) - Merrill Lynch Research

Still no signs of stabilization

Order cuts continue with falling demand
We have lowered our 2009E EPS, fair value estimate, and PO for TSMC. Wafer order cuts from customers which started in July have yet to stabilize. Our recent supply chain indicators and checks indicate wafer fab production utilization to drop to mid-50s which is approaching its 2001 trough of 40.1%. Management is
doing its best to slow the tide of cancellations but is showing limited success.

Lower 2009E EPS from NT$2.60 to NT$1.96
We have lowered our 2009E EPS by 25% from NT$2.60 (NT$0.391) to NT$1.96 ($0.298/ADR). Our base case 2009E EPS assumes a revenue decline of 22% YoY, average capacity utilization of 70%, GPM of 31%, and to reduce operating costs by 21% YoY. Our recent industry analysis of capacity, logic IC inventory, and demand continues to suggest the sector is unlikely to stabilize until 1Q09.

Deep cycles are back – lowering PO to NT$40.5
Our PO is reduced from NT$45.0 to NT$40.5 which is based on 20.6x target PE and is supported by our long-term fair value model. We have lowered our midcycle fair value from NT$70 to NT$60. The bulk of the revision comes from the sharp down-cyclical impact of 2009 and to a lesser extent from adjustment to our
long-term growth assumption (from 10.5% to 9%).

欲閱讀全文者請按 TSMC 2330 台積電

Simplo Technology Co Ltd. (新普 6121) - Merrill Lynch Research

Solid fundamentals; top pick in NB component sector
We have raised Simplo’s 2008E EPS by 7% post its better 3Q results. However, we have reduced its 2009E EPS by 5% to factor in slower NB industry growth, and also cut the PO to NT$131 (based on 11x 09E P/E). Simplo remains our top pick in the NB component space, given its compelling P/E of 8x, consistent earnings delivery and solid balance sheet (zero debt, high net cash position).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Simplo Technology 6121 新普

Nanya PCB (南電 8046) - Goldman Sachs Research

Source of opportunity
We downgrade Nanya PCB to Sell from Neutral for the following reasons: (1) the absence of NGK Spark Plug’s restructuring plans implies no upside for incremental CPU flip chip (FC) outsourcing to Nanya; (2) upon Intel’s 2ndgen. Nehalem platform launch, we expect Nanya’s Northbridge FC revenue to drain away and CPU FC business be capped by NGK; (3) Nanya PCB has been continuously loaning money to Nanya Tech, its DRAM affiliate in the group – the current balance of NT$4.9bn is 14% of Nanya PCB’s 3Q08 BV. Our new 12m target price of NT$58 is based on 7X next-12m P/E, implying 1X 2008E P/B.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Nanya PCB 8046 南電

Prime View (元太 8069) - Macquarie Research

Not out of the woods yet

Action and recommendation
Valuations look expensive relative to peers. PVI is still trading at 1.2x 2009E P/BV, while all other TFT-LCD panel stocks are below book. With PVI posting losses too, the stock may fall below its previous historical low of 0.9x in 4Q05.

PVI’s net debt/equity is the only one among TFT-LCD panel stocks currently to be over 100%. PVI has a NT$6bn bridge loan used to finance the acquisition of the Korean fabs. To lower gearing, PVI announced in May that it planned to do a rights issue. However, the plan has been pending due to a weak stock market.
Management said at the meeting today that the plan should be finished within six months to pay back the bridge loan. Consequently, further dilution is inevitable and may overhang the stock, in our view.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Prime View 8069 元太

Formosa Petrochemical Corp. (台塑化 6505) - Goldman Sachs Research

Margin deterioration may lead to substantial net loss in 4Q08

What’s changed
Followed by the 27% mom decline in WTI oil prices in October, there were 25%-43% mom declines for various oil product prices in October. However, as the crude oil inventory cost for FPCC is based on two-thirds of the cost in the previous month and one-third of the cost in the current month, we believe this should lead to a significant net loss for FPCC in October, and expect the losses to continue into November and December if the oil price continues to fall. We remain cautious on the stock.

欲閱讀全文者請按 FPCC 6505 台塑化，另提供 Formosa Petrochemical 6505 台塑化 - MACQ 予各位一併參考。

Chemical Catalysts - Citi Investment Research

When China Sneezes

How bad is demand? — Consider: 1) Formosa Group saw inventory days rise to 15-25 QoQ in 3Q08; 2) crackers have high naphtha stock crushing spot cargo demand (naphtha spread plunged to –US$25/bbl); 3) Asian producers cut utilisation (20-50%); 4) 3Q08 China PE/PP consumption rose 2% (-1% YTD) and PVC fell 9% (-2% YTD) and domestic plastics output fell 6-22% MoM in Sept; 5) PRC finished product export growth slowing (textile, 4%, toys: 7%).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Chemical Catalysts

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11/27 新增

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (TSMC 台積電 2330) - BNP Investment Research

No sign of bottoming-out yet

20% y-y decrease in our 2009 TSMC revenue estimates
We expect the foundry industry (TSMC same) will underperform the semiconductor industry. Our 2009 revenue forecast for TSMC is a 20% y-y decrease. Our 2009 EPS forecast for TSMC is TWD2.37 (down from
TWD3.99), indicating a decline of 40.5% y-y, reflected by a lower utilization rate. We believe TSMC’s share price is negatively impacted by weak 1H09 market sentiment in the near term.

欲閱讀全文者請按 TSMC 2330 台積電研究報告 - BNP

Nanya PCB (南電 8046) - NOMURA Investment Research

CPU inventory woes to hit 1H09F margins — a repeat of 1H07?

NGK Spark Plug (NYPCB’s partner in Japan) has suffered a dramatic depletion of its competitiveness in the flip-chip (FC) industry. NGK posted a record quarterly operating loss of ¥5bn for 3Q08, citing low
yields at its new FC plant. At its analyst briefing (13 November), NGK had been expected to outline turnaround plans. We were hoping for a restructuring initiative involving more outsourcing to NYPCB, but now this looks unlikely. NGK said it planned to negotiate higher prices with its CPU customers in a bid to narrow losses. In such an environment, rising prices inevitably spell loss of market share. Moreover, in a bid to improve in-house yields, NGK could reel in orders to its internal plants, and away from NYPCB. On our estimates, NGK accounts for 14% of NYPCB’s FY08F sales, and this business is at risk of declining.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Nan Ya PCB 8046 南電研究報告 - NOMURA

Gemtek (4906 正文) - Macquarie Investment Research

Mixed outlook ahead

Gemtek hosted its regular semi-annual analyst meeting Tuesday afternoon, providing a business update and forward-looking guidance. From the company’s comments, we learned that the retail demand for Wi-Fi devices is dropping faster than our prior expectation. We have therefore trimmed our earnings forecasts.

However, we believe IP set-top box (STB) and WiMAX product lines will continue their secular growth in 2009, keeping Gemtek resilient throughout the economic downturn. We reaffirm our Outperform rating.

Following the earnings cut, we are trimming our TP from NT$70 to NT$46.5 (10x 2009E EPS). We maintain our Outperform rating. Despite slowing momentum, with the right products and right clientele (tier-one networking OEMs), we believe Gemtek is in a better position to grow in 2009 compared with other local networking peers.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Gemtek 4906 正文研究報告 - 麥格里，另一併提供 Gemtek 4906 正文研究報告 - Morgan Stanley 予各位參考

Powertech Technology Inc (力成 6239) - JPMorgan Investment Research

DRAM market deterioration should hurt utilization in 1H09; cut to Neutral

Cut to Neutral, PT of NT$39: We downgrade Powertech to Neutral with a Jun-09 PT of NT$39 (1.2x FY09 book). We expect DRAM utilization to drop sharply in 1H09 as DRAM bit output contracts due to production cuts. We are also concerned about high exposure to Kingston recently and lengthening AR days due to support to ailing DRAM customers. Key risk is a quick recovery in DRAM demand, which does not look likely in 2009.

Strong growth in NAND Flash not enough to save 2009: Powertech should see strong growth in NAND Flash assembly from Toshiba, once Toshiba takes control of its Sandisk JV. However, Flash exposure is only
15% currently small and is not enough to offset decline in DRAM.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Powertech 6239 力成研究報告 - JPMorgan

12/28 新增

Gemtek (4906 正文) - Morgan Stanley Investment Research

Annual Analyst Meeting
Takeaway – Not Pessimistic

We attended Gemtek’s annual analyst meeting today. Our investment thesis on Gemtek remains intact for its ongoing diversification into telco segment (40%~50%) that enables it to offset retail space slowdown in 2009E. (Refer to our update dated Nov. 20, 2008 “Better Positioning Amid the Downturn”.) While near-term share price volatility is likely to remain high, along with the macro turmoil, we continue to rank Gemtek as our preferred name in Taiwan networking space. We believe Gemtek will weather the downturn on better positioning and healthy balance sheet plus, its wireless broadband integrated product offerings should allow Gemtek to catch the upcoming triple play trend in long run. Current valuations of 7/8x of ‘08/09E or 1x P/B for ‘09E. We retain our OW rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Gemtek 正文 4906 研究報告 - Morgan Stanley

Formosa Plastics (台塑 1301) - Goldman Sachs Research

Recent rebound in product prices seems to be only temporary

What’s changed
We note that the market has turned more positive on FPC’s December sales due to the 5% price rebound in PVC in the past two weeks as well as FPC’s recent sales volume increase in PE. However, we think that the price and sales volume increases are only limited to these specific products and are due to short-term inventory re-stocking, and do not represent a recovery in end demand. Therefore, we think the price and sales volume increases are temporary only. Our channel checks also indicate that most chemical companies and their end customers are trying to lower inventory before the Chinese New Year..

欲閱讀全文者請按 Formosa Plastics 1301 台塑研究報告 - 高盛

Compal Communications (華寶 8078) - Goldman Sachs Research

One of the few bright spots within handset sector; maintain Buy

What’s changed
Despite low order visibility and earnings uncertainty across the handset supply chain, our industry checks continue to indicate a positive trend for Compal Comm’s (CCI) improvement in customer diversification and
product offering expansion over the next 12 months.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Compal Communications 8078 華寶研究報告 - 高盛

Foundry - Morgan Stanley Research

The Foundry Floorplan – December 2008: Not Such a Happy New Yea

Conclusion: As we close in upon year-end, the sounds of the holidays are dulled while the specter of demand flits through the cold foundry halls. Things continue to get worse, and in this month’s Foundry Floorplan, we once again revise our foundry assumptions for 4Q08 and 2009, taking into account foundry guidance cuts and continued macro deterioration.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Foundry 研究報告 - Morgan Stanley

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A parable for our times (當代股市寓言)

austin — Thu, 06 Nov 2008 03:07:19 +0000

下面是一則以英文所撰寫的現代股市寓言，我們將中文翻譯內容附註如下，看完之後，除了莞爾一笑之外，也希望各位能有些許體會，股市的本質，其實就是如此。

Once upon a time in a place overrun with monkeys, a man appeared and announced to the villagers that he would buy monkeys for $10 each. The villagers, seeing that there were many monkeys around, went out to the forest, and started catching them.

從前有一個到處都是猴子地方，一名男子出現向村民宣布，他將以每隻十元的價錢購買猴子。村民瞭解附近有很多猴子，他們走進森林開始抓猴子。

The man bought thousands at $10 and as supply started to diminish, they became harder to catch, so the villagers stopped their effort.

該名男子花了數千美元購買每隻十塊錢的猴子，猴子數量因此開始減少，而村民們也越來越難抓到猴子，因此他們不再熱衷抓猴子賺這十塊錢了。

The man then announced that he would now pay $20 for each one. This renewed the efforts of the villagers and they started catching monkeys again. But soon the supply diminished even further and they were ever harder to catch, so people started going back to their farms and forgot about monkey catching.

該名男子隨後宣布，他將出價每隻猴子20美元。這又讓村民們重新開始努力抓猴子。但很快供應量變得更少，他們幾乎很難再抓到了，因此人們開始回到自己的農場，繼續耕作，慢慢淡忘了抓猴子賺錢這件事。

The man increased his price to $25 each and the supply of monkeys became so sparse that it was an effort to even see a monkey, much less catch one.

這名男子於是增加價格到每隻25美元，但是猴子的供應變得更稀少，再怎麼努力都很難見到一隻猴子，更別談抓猴子了。

The man now announced that he would buy monkeys for $50! However, since he had to go to the city on some business, his assistant would now buy on his behalf.

該名男子現在宣布，每隻猴子他出價50美元！然而這時候他離開了，去城裡辦一些事，現在他的助手代表他繼續從事購買猴子的業務。

While the man was away the assistant told the villagers. ‘Look at all these monkeys in the big cage that the man has bought. I will sell them to you at $35 each and when the man returns from the city, you can sell them to him for $50 each.’

這名男子離開後，助理告訴村民，看看先前該男子向你們購買，目前還在大籠子裡的這些猴子，我每隻用35美元賣給你們，等該名男子從城裡回來，你們可以將它們以每隻50美元賣給他。

The villagers rounded up all their savings and bought all the monkeys.

村民們匯集了所有的積蓄，向這個助理購買了全部的猴子。

They never saw the man nor his assistant again

他們從此再也沒有見到這名男子和他的助理了。

and once again there were monkeys everywhere.

村子裡又再次變成到處都是猴子的地方。

Now you have a better understanding of how the stock market works.

現在你該更進一步了解，股票市場是如何運作的了。

建議你看完之後別太快下結論，想一想你在股市的失敗經驗，然後再看一遍這則寓言，你將有新一層的體會，如果你肯多花十分鐘再次仔細閱讀每個字，你會真正的發現….股市真的就是如此！

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公司破產的預測：Z-Score與ZETA模型

austin — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 06:29:28 +0000

1968年紐約大學的歐特曼教授(Edward I. Altman)於The Journal of Finance發表一篇論文( Financial Ratio , Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy )，該文以Z-Score模型，將66個公司樣本分類為二群(各33家公司)，檢測Z-Score模型對於公司破產與不破產的預測能力，其結果顯示Z-Score模型的精確度分別達到94%與97%。換句話說，Z-Score對於一家公司是否會在未來出現財務危機，具有充分的預測能力。

Z-Score模型的建立：

歐特曼教授先從歷史財務報表的資料中，建立22個財務變數，再以MDA(multiple discriminant analysis)法篩選出最重要的五個指標變數，分別是….

1. 營運資金佔總資產比率 [=營運資金÷總資產 =(流動資產 - 流動負債) ÷ 總資產 ] ，以X1表示
2. 保留盈餘佔總資產比率 [=保留盈餘總金額÷總資產]，以X2表示，為五個變數中最重要的一個
3. 息前稅前淨利佔總資產比率 [=EBIT÷總資產 = (稅前淨利+利息費用)÷總資產]，以X3表示
4. 普通股市值對負債比率 [=普通股市場價值÷總負債]，以X4表示
5. 總資產周轉率 [=銷貨收入÷總資產]，以X5表示

Z-Score的計算公式為….

Z = 1.2X1 + 1.4X2 + 3.3X3 + 0.6X4 +0.999X5

利用上述公式可計算出一家公司的Z-Score，若….

1.81 < Z-Score < 2.675 ，則屬於極有可能破產(Bankruptcy)的範圍，預估一年內破產的準確度達94%

Z-Score < 1.81，則預估一年內破產的準確度達100%

Z-Score > 2.99，則預估一年內不會破產的準確度達100%

1.81 < Z-Score < 2.99，則屬於灰色地帶

要特別注意的是…該研究的公司樣本是以製造業為主，而且資產規模介於70萬美元至2590萬美元之間，預測期間為一年，若預測期間改為二年，則Z-Score低於2.675時，預測該公司會破產的準確度將降低為72%，當預測期間拉長到5年時，預測該公司會破產的準確度將降低到只剩36%。另外，上述的公式與判斷標準並不表示一定適用於非製造業或資產規模較大的公司。

歐特曼教授於2000年發表了另一篇論文(PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS OF COMPANIES:REVISITING THE Z-SCORE AND ZETA® MODELS)，在該文中將樣本資料更新到1999年，該研究中他將樣本群依照時間分為1969~1975年、1976~1995年、1997~1999年等三類，若使用Z-Score的原始公式及2.675的臨界分數，預估公司會破產的準確度將介於82%~94%，因此他建議使用者將臨界分數由2.675降低到1.81會較為適合。

政治大學金融所沈中華教授於2004年在經濟日報撰文表示….

由於目前會計制度是採用應計基礎，即使貨出去而錢尚未收到，公司也可記帳成營收增加，更離譜的是，有時只要訂單來了，公司尚未開工，也可記營收增加。在這兩種情況下，應收帳款都會同比例增加，所以當營收增加，未必有真的銷售，它的增加可能全反映在應收帳款的同步增加，而沒有現金收入。然而，營收增加全來自應收帳款增加，本身並不代表這公司有問題，否則會推論出只有現金交易才合理。

我自己研究這問題，認為營收來自應收帳款會產生問題的時機，只有在應收帳款拖太久，又未打消，我們才應質疑公司可能正在做假，此時，盈餘有一部分也有問題，即營收及盈餘品質均不好!

所以在台灣，或任何地方，直接用美國發展的Z-score方法，可能要考慮營收的品質或真實性。

例如，如何將誇大的營收進行抵減我建議一個簡單方法，但詳細的作法且必須考慮產業特性、景氣循環及其他等因素，則不在此詳述。

我簡單建議的方法是當應收帳款超過60天，則將帶入Z-score的營收減其1/5 ; 當應收帳款超過90天，則將帶入Z-score的營收減其1/2;當應收帳款超過120天，則將帶入Z-score的營收減其4/5，這抵減反映公司可能收不回應收帳款，或原先登錄的營收是假的，所以抵減即是對品質不好的營收的一項懲罰。

我將這觀念進行簡單驗證，雖然這是一個小小改變，但我卻發現效果驚人。如果使用原始營收代入公式計算Z-score，博達的財務危機出現在92年，用調整後的營收代入公式計算Z-score法，則危機出現在91年，雖然只是一年，但它對投資人警訊應有助益。

(註：沈教授的方式可供各位讀者參考，不過這種方式仍屬製造業較為適用，而各位亦可使用歐特曼教授改良之Z”-Score模型的公式，內容詳見下述)

Z-Score模型的修正 - ZETA Model：

歐特曼教授於1977年在 Journal of Banking & Finance 發表了另一篇論文 (Zeta Analysis: A New Model to Identify Bankruptcy Risk of Corporations)，與Z-Score模型不同的是，ZETA信用風險模型加入大資產規模的樣本(製造業平均資產規模在1億，非製造業則低於2千萬)，並將非製造業(零售)納入，相同的是都以歷史財務報表的資料為基礎，建立27個財務變數，再透過統計方法推導出7個指標變數，分別是….總資產報酬率 (EBIT÷總資產)、5~10年資產報酬率估計的標準誤(代表盈餘穩定性)、利息保障倍數 (EBIT÷利息費用)、累積獲利能力 (保留盈餘÷總資產)、流動比率 (流動資產÷流動負債)、普通股市價比率 (普通股市價總值÷總資本)、總資產等。

另外，ZETA信用風險模型還考慮到財報準則的修正與財報附註項目(租賃資本化、其他負債與其他資產以淨值計算、以合併報表的資料進行分析、剔除商譽與無形資產、將研發費用與利息資本化部分視為費用處理)。

整體來說，ZETA信用風險模型用來判斷破產公司的概念，和之前的Z-Score模型的精神類似，都是以財務報表的內容來分析公司的信用風險。無論是ZETA或Z-Score都適用於破產發生前1年的樣本，ZETA預估會破產的公司，精確度高達96.2%，預估不會破產的公司，精確度則為89.7%，Z-Score則為93.9%與97%，但ZETA在分析上，可將精確性拉長到2～5年之前，ZETA在前5年預估破產公司的準確度還可達到69.8%，不會破產公司的精確度可達到82.1%，但Z-Score就降到只剩36％，歐特曼教授表示，可能是因為ZETA模型中，樣本抽取更符合當時狀況，也包括更多不同產業公司，而Z-Score只使用了製造業的樣本，在加入非製造業樣本後才使得準確度降低。

Z-Score模型的修正： Z’-Score ：

將X4中的普通股權益市值修正為普通股權益的帳面價值後，發現變數X4的係數會降低，但是模型可靠度也會稍微降低，且臨界分數必須修正至1.23

Z-Score模型的修正： Z”-Score ：

加入非製造業公司的樣本後，沿用Z’-Score的方式，X4變數使用普通股權益的帳面價值，為了極小化產業效應，並將銷售÷總資產這個變數(X5)剔除，新的Z-Score Model成為Z” = 6.56 (X1)+ 3.26 (X2) + 6.72 (X3) + 1.05 (X4) ，這個新模型對於資產融資較為頻繁的產業特別有用(例如租賃資本化)。

上述二篇論文，若要閱讀全文者請按….

Financial Ratio , Discriminant Analysis and the Prediction of Corporate Bankruptcy (資料來源：JSTOR)

PREDICTING FINANCIAL DISTRESS OF COMPANIES:REVISITING THE Z-SCORE AND ZETA® MODELS (資料來源：New York University)

由於Z-Score模型是針對公司破產與不破產的預測，偏向於被動防守這個面向，若對投資上的主動攻擊面向有興趣者，請參考正通投資團隊所撰寫之財務金融相關文章

如何閱讀財務報表

光寶 / 閎輝 / 友訊 / 合勤 / 健鼎 / 聯電 / 華邦電 / 東元

austin — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 14:22:14 +0000

以下為本週外資研究報告中，關於光寶 2301、閎輝 3311、友訊 2332、合勤 2397、健鼎 3044、聯電 2303、華邦電 2344、與東元 1504等個股研究報告。提供各位建立產業與相關公司的基礎認知，切勿作為個人買賣依據或對外散播。

Lite-On Tech (光寶 2301) - Macquarie Research

Positive momentum

Lite-On Tech (LOT) announced great results. 3Q08 EPS was 30% above our EPS estimate at NT$0.94 (+50% QoQ, -8% YoY, bonus adjusted).
Perlos also substantially beat expectations, its operating margin improved from 2.6% in 2Q08 to 6.7%, compared to our estimate of 3.0%.
A second buyback of 40m shares was announced. In total, LOT will buy back 70m shares or 3% of the total outstanding shares, for employee bonuses.

Our view vs consensus: LOT is one of our top, long picks in Taiwan given its solid balance sheet, healthy cashflows, improving fundamentals, and cheap valuations. Despite macroeconomic headwinds, we are happy to see LOT execute well in a difficult environment and encourage investors to notice the positive changes taking place at this company.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Lite-on Tech 2301 光寶研究報告

Silitech Technology (閎輝 3311) - Macquarie Research

Better 3Q08, but gloomier 2009

We maintain Neutral rating on Silitech. We lowered our target price from NT$94 (14x 2009E EPS) to NT$72.5 (12x 2009E EPS). Given the weaker industry outlook ahead and the likely EPS decline in 2009, we expect
Silitech’s valuation to be de-rated.

When to revisit? For the long run, we still like Silitech’s leading industry position and superior technology. We think investors might revisit Silitech should there be better 1H09 order visibility and/or product diversification (into light-metal casings) that enables Silitech to gain more tier-one client orders.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Silitech 3311 閎輝研究報告

D-Link (友訊 2332) - Citi Investment Research

Buy: Better Op Margins in 3Q08; More Conservative 09 Forecast

Our view vs. consensus — While consensus is looking for a sharp decline in 2009E and is worried about weaker margins, we think the company’s exposure to emerging market telco projects and growing presence in US/Europe SMEs will help D-Link cope with the slowdown. We expect D-Link’s unit shipments to be flat in 2009, while sales and earnings are likely to decline by 5-7% yoy in 2009E, driven mainly by blended ASP declines. In addition, margins should also be higher for the company’s SME solutions due to fewer customer rebates.

欲閱讀全文者請按 D-Link 2332 友訊研究報告 - 花旗，另提供 D-Link 2332 友訊研究報告 - 高盛予各位一併參考。

ZyXEL Communications Corp. (合勤 2391) - Goldman Sachs Research

Disappointing 3Q result; but visibility higher on carrier exposure

ZyXEL reported 3Q parent results, while consolidated results are not available yet. 3Q earnings of NT$151mn was well below our estimate by 50%. Although 3Q sales were in line with our estimate, operating profit was 47% lower than our estimate. We attribute the lower than expected GM / higher opex ratio to fierce competition in the networking space and ZyXEL’s inefficient opex control. The non-operating loss was roughly in line with our estimate. Forex loss impact due to Euro depreciation was mitigated by the reverse of inventory loss and bad debts provision.

ZyXEL is trading at 13X ‘09E EPS, below its historical trough of 15X. Downside risk for the share price could be limited in the near term, given ZyXEL’s strong cash position (2Q08 cash is 27% of 10/28 market cap) and low valuation.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Zyxel 2391 合勤研究報告

Tripod Technology Corp (健鼎 3044) - Macquarie Research

Conservative outlook

We reaffirm our Outperform rating, but reduce our TP from NT$103 to NT$60 to reflect earnings estimate reductions and a lower valuation multiple due to weak market sentiment and limited earning growth.

Tripod’s share price declined by 37% and underperformed the Taiex by 11% during the past month due to limited liquidity and the company’s exposure to DRAM and TFT. We believe the stock has been oversold at less than a 6x PER (lower end of PCB peer trading range), despite Tripod’s strong execution, low-cost structure and improving balance sheet. Tripod is our top pick in the PCB space, and our TP NT$60 is derived from its average 2008/09 ROE-g/COE-g with a 30% discount, implying a 2008/09E PER of 8.5x.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Tripod Technology 3044 健鼎研究報告

UMC (聯電 2303) - BNP Research

New target price of TWD8.80
We lower our target price to TWD8.80 (TWD10.60 earlier), which is based on 0.6x P/BV from the previous 0.7x. Our new valuation reflects: 1) 15% valuation de-rating of foundry manufacturers in the past four
weeks; and 2) UMC’s potential risk from ProMOS investment. We maintain HOLD for UMC. We believe UMC’s ROE will fall further during the downcycle.

Downside risk during downturn
We believe UMC is likely to underperform its 1Q09 outlook. Our 1Q09 revenue forecast for UMC is 8% q-q down. We believe UMC’s ROE could fall further in the 4Q08-1Q09 downcycle. We believe UMC is likely to
see further significant order cuts because of its weaker position in foundry industry (we notice its market share at 65nm process is behind Chartered).

欲閱讀全文者請按 UMC 2303 聯電研究報告 - BNP ，另提供 UMC 2303 聯電研究報告 - 美林、UMC 2303 聯電研究報告 - 德銀予各位一併參考。

Winbond Electronics (華邦電 2344) - Morgan Stanley Research

Time to Exit Commodity DRAM

Quick Comment: Impact on our views. Winbond may exit commodity DRAM as its technology source
Qimonda will be exiting. Going forward, Winbond aims to de-emphasize commodity DRAM and focus on niche memory. In our view, Winbond should preserve its cash and consider fab divestments to become a leading fabless memory maker to differentiate in Taiwan DRAM. As all Taiwan DRAM makers are trading below replacement costs, there would be more than sufficient quality 12” DRAM fabs in Taiwan for Winbond to leverage on its niche memory designs.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Winbond Electronics 2344 華邦電研究報告

Teco Co (東元 1504) - Macquarie Research

Taiwan High Speed Rail risk

We provide an update on Teco’s business operations and clarify its Taiwan High Speed Rail (2633 TT, NT$4.9, Non-Rated) issue following China Steel’s (2002 TT, NT$20.6, UP, TP: 27) write-off on its THSR investment.

Currently, Teco is trading at 7.7x 2009E PER and 0.4x P/BV. The cheap valuation makes Teco look interesting to watch; however, we suggest investors wait until the market stabilizes and the THSR write-off risk winds down. We retain Outperform with target price of NT$13.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Teco 1504 東元研究報告 - MACQ ，另提供 Teco 1504 東元研究報告 - 高盛予各位一併參考。

11/27 新增

Tripod Technology Corp (健鼎 3044) - NOMURA Research

Hibernation

Despite its strong cost competitiveness, execution, and market-share gains in HDI and NB PCBs, Tripod is not immune to macro woes, especially when its major segments — DRAM, TFT-LCD and HDD (accounting for a combined 57% of FY08F sales) — are facing severe oversupply/slowdown. Initiating at NEUTRAL.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Tripod 3044 健鼎研究報告 - NOMURA

12/28 新增

ZyXEL Communications Corp. (合勤 2391) - Goldman Sachs Research

Relatively defensive but macro headwind remains strong, Neutral

We now assume ZyXEL’s 4Q08 sales will decline 10% qoq as our channel checks suggest ZyXEL is experiencing a shipment delay from an Asian telecom company. We have also trimmed our 4Q GM assumption to 30.9% (from 32.3%) due to its worse product mix in the quarter (heavier reliance on carrier business).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Zyxel 2391 合勤研究報告 - 高盛

D-Link (友訊 2332) - Goldman Sachs Research

Struck by slowing emerging markets and FX, maintain Neutral

Our channel checks show a steady worsening of end demand, even in the Christmas season, and D-Link mgmt now expects Dec sales to continue to trend down. As a result, we now expect a high teens qoq decline in DLink’s 4Q sales and a deteriorating operating margin, and forecast a 5.5% sales decline in 2009.

欲閱讀全文者請按 D-Link 2332 友訊研究報告 - 高盛

太陽能產業 / 水泥產業 / Taiwan Property / 昱晶 / 台泥 / 國產

austin — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 13:52:27 +0000

以下為本週外資研究報告中，關於水泥產業、太陽能產業的產業研究報告，另有台灣資產股族群的研究報告及個股的昱晶 3514、台泥 1101、國產 2514等研究報告。提供各位建立產業與相關公司的基礎認知，切勿作為個人買賣依據或對外散播。

Taiwan: Energy: Alternative Energy - Goldman Sachs Research

Macro concerns, solar module prices feel the heat; initiate on 2 cos

Downgrade E-Ton to Neutral, maintain Neutral on Motech, SAS We lower E-Ton (3452.TWO) to Neutral from Buy as its high leverage has become a cause for concern in the current credit environment. However, we
still like the company as it continues to differentiate itself by producing highefficiency cells. In our view, Motech’s (6244.TWO) gross margins have bottomed in 3Q as the percentage of cheaper long-term contracts increases. We expect margin expansion to continue in 2009E, but will be limited by the maximum percentage of long-term contracts, which we estimate at 50%.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Alternative Energy 太陽能產業報告

Taiwan Cement Sector - Citi Investment Research

Long-Term Value at End of Tunnel

Taiwan cement companies corrected sharply along with the derating of global peers and the selling from foreign investors. Despite the tough operating environment in the next few months, we still believe that their current share prices offer long-term investment value if looking at their P/B or EV/ton, and downside is limited. We urge investors not to overly focus on the weaker cement market, but also to consider lower coal costs and cheaper valuation. We maintain Buy on both names but cut target prices and earnings.

China to bottom in 1H09 — We began to see price declines in some regions in China into the typically strong 4Q mainly due to the slowing property market. We forecast the market will remain cold until 1H09, when the government’s new policies to support the property market start to take effect, and local
governments push for faster closure of outdated plants.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Cement Sector 水泥產業研究報告

Taiwan property sector - Macquarie Research

Potential inventory losses in 2009

We believe there could be potential inventory losses in 2009 after the stricter accounting method on inventory value assessment to start effective on 1 January 2009, according to the revised Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No 10.

While the change in accounting method will not influence our NAV as it has no major impact on cashflows, it will negatively influence the dividends as DPS is usually capped by accounting EPS. It will thus have some negative impact on share prices as some investors are attracted by the high dividend yield of developers. In addition, developers with a higher portion of land acquired after 2007 would be more vulnerable to property price decline.

We remain cautious on the Taiwan property sector, given the weak industry outlook amid global economic slowdown and higher financial risk in tightening liquidity.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan property Sector

Gintech (昱晶 3514)- Macquarie Research

Doing a good job

We admit Gintech is a high-risk, high-return stock. We believe its share upside outweighs its downside. We are cutting our target price to NT$210 from NT$288, as we lower our PER multiple to 8x from 11x to reflect in macro headwinds. Risk: Although we have put conservative assumptions on our estimate and global subsidy spending as a whole (only US$2.5-3bn), we still cannot rule out that the rising credit crisis may further inhibit global renewable energy demand.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Gintech 3514 昱晶研究報告

Taiwan Cement (台泥 1101) - Goldman Sachs Research

Improving op income on higher ASP; reduce TP on lower EV/t, NAV

TCC announced 3Q08 results largely in line with our expectations, with sales down 2% qoq to NT$6.2bn, GP up 50% qoq to NT$547mn, OP increased 131% qoq to NT$251mn, and NI declined 51% qoq to NT$1.1bn. 1Q08-3Q08 NI represented 70% of our 08E NI estimate. We attribute the higher GP and OP to higher ASP in 3Q08, while sales volumes declined during the period. Meanwhile, we believe the significant qoq drop in NI was mainly due to the lack of a sizeable disposal gain, as was incurred in 2Q08.

We lower our EV/t assumption we use to value the core business to US$45/t from US$60/t to reflect the trough cycle valuation and cut our 09E NAV per share to NT$24.7 from NT$31.6. We also widen our discount to NAV to 25% from 20% to reflect rising investor concern over the volatility of its non-listed equity investment. As a result, we reduce our 12-m SOTPbased TP to NT$18.5 from NT$25.0. While the historical trough P/B is 0.3x, we do not think TCC will trade at such a discount given the cement market
consolidation over the past few years and stable earnings contribution from its key subsidiary, Hoping Power (Private).

欲閱讀全文者請按 1101 台泥研究報告

Goldsun Development and Construction (國產 2504) - Goldman Sachs Research

Improving 3Q08 results given higher ASP and investment income

Goldsun just announced its 3Q08 detailed results, with sales of NT$2.9bn, down 2% qoq; gross profit of NT$259mn, up 15% qoq; operating profit of NT$126mn, up 45% qoq; and net earnings of NT$357mn, up 72%. 1Q08- 3Q08 net earnings of NT$767mn has reached 77% of our 2008E net earnings estimate. We attribute the improving 3Q08 results to higher ASP and investment income in 3Q08.

We lower our EV/t assumption we use to derive core business value to US$45/t from US$60/t to reflect the trough cycle valuation and lower our 09E NAV per share estimates to NT$9.4 from NT$11.9. We widen our
discount to NAV to 25% from 20%, given rising investor concerns over volatility of non-listed equity investment values. As such, we cut our 12-m SOTP-based TP to NT$7.0 from NT$9.5. We maintain our Neutral rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 2504 國產研究報告

11/15 新增太陽能產業與水泥產業的外資研究報告如下

Taiwan Solar View - Citi Investment Research

Cautious on Demand Growth and Falling Prices

Key takeaways — We recently visited several solar names in Taiwan – Gintech (昱晶 3514), Motech (茂迪 6244), Solartech, Green Energy(綠能 3519) – and overall the theme has been on concerns over: 1) weaker bookings by customers, and lower ASP due to USD/EUR movement; 2) difficulty in fundraising for capacity expansion; 3) using longer-term contract to secure Poly-Si supply and long-term downstream contracts; and 4) larger players pursuing vertical integration to save costs.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Solar Sector

Taiwan Cement Sector - Merrill Lynch Research

Better ST sentiment; retain LT negative view

POs up on better China operation; Underperform retained
We raise our POs on Asia Cement (ACC; B-3-8; NT$23.60) and Taiwan Cement (TCC; B-3-8; NT$20.05) to NT$19.1 and NT$17.9, mainly to reflect better operations in China due to China’s NT$4tn domestic stimulus project. We expect the market to react positively to this news in the short term. ACC will benefit more than TCC in our view, as ACC has a good location in Sichuan province while TCC’s major focus, Guangdong province, continues to suffer from oversupply. We retain our LT Underperform ratings given the weak export market and sluggish domestic demand hindered by gloomy property market conditions.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan Cement Sector - 美林，另提供法國巴黎證券的台灣水泥產業研究報告予各位一併參考，欲閱讀者請按 Taiwan Cement Industry-BNP。

11/27新增

Solar Technology (太陽能產業研究報告)- NOMURA Research

Not safe to look up yet

The sharp global slowdown has suddenly obscured the outlook for the solar technology sector. With demand in Europe (77% of FY08F solar demand) expected to contract severely, we expect to see reductions in solar module ASPs of 19% q-q in 4Q08 and 13% q-q in 1Q09. Inventory will pile up and drag utilisation to a bottom in 1Q09. Pricing will remain under pressure, in our view, as the poly-silicon market looks set to tip into oversupply in 1H09. But this will begin the transition that will allow the industry’s long-term growth prospects to shine through again. We look for PV module ASP to halve from 3Q08 to 4Q10, at which point solar power will hit grid parity in select locations, stimulate price-elastic demand and attract a new class of marginal buyer — the utilities. Meanwhile, falling industry margins in FY09 will push solar companies to
increase cell efficiency to lower cost, allowing silicon usage per watt to fall by 20.5% between 3Q08 and 4Q10. However, for the next 12 months, it is almost a total eclipse of earnings growth for the sector. Suntech is our only BUY as superior cell efficiency gains should support earnings growth of 14.2% y-y in FY09 and 68.7% y-y in FY10.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Solar sector 太陽能產業研究報告 - NOMURA

2009年的選股重點

聯詠 / 智原 / 雷凌 / 瑞昱 / 凌陽 / 群聯 / 致新 / 立錡

austin — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 13:27:32 +0000

以下為本週外資研究報告中，關於IC設計的聯詠 3034、智原 3035、雷凌 3534、瑞昱 2379、凌陽 2401、群聯 8299與致新 8081等IC設計(IC Design)公司，提供各位建立產業與相關公司的基礎認知，切勿作為個人買賣依據或對外散播。

Novatek Microelectronics (聯詠 3034) - Macquarie Research

While Novatek’s stock price may still have some pressure due to soft panel outlook, we continue to believe that the company deserves a revisit on its good execution, healthy balance sheet, and positive net cashflow as well as high cash yield. The better-than-expected GM should also ease some margin erosion concern. Value-driven investors may consider Novatek and Himax (HIMX US, US$1.92, OP, TP: US$3.2).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Novatek 3034 聯詠研究報告 - MACQ ，另提供 Novatek 3034 聯詠研究報告 - 花旗予各位一併參考。

Faraday (智原 3035) - Deutsche Bank Research

Weakening growth outlook; retain Sell

The company is competing with fabless customers directly by working with system makers. This should trigger market share loss in fabless customers in the long term. We expect the company to experience gross margin erosion and an earnings growth slowdown from 2009 onwards due to an unfavorable product mix
and poor design capability on advanced technology nodes. We maintain our earnings forecast and TP and reiterate our Sell rating.

Our TP is based on 12.8x US GAAP 2009E EPS, which is in line with the 2003-07 trough. We believe this is justified by its 2009E-10E earnings CAGR of 4%, which is lower than the 2003-07 CAGR of 48%. We believe growth deceleration may lead the stock to trade close to the historical trough. Upside risks include faster
share gain in system makers and technology migration.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Faraday 3035 智原研究報告

Phison Electronics (群聯 8299) - Macquarie Research

A possible survivor, but too expensive

Following disappointing 3Q08 results and our conservative view on NAND Flash, we cut our earnings forecast and target price significantly for Phison. Our rating remains at Underperform and our new target price is NT$30 (8x 2009E PER) from NT$110 previously.

Our stance on Phison reflects our long-standing conservative view of major NAND Flash players, supported by the disappointing 3Q08 results seen across the region. We await clearer signals of a growth in NAND Flash demand before reviewing our investment view.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Phison 8299 群聯研究報告 - MACQ ，另提供 Phison 8299 群聯研究報告 - 高盛予各位一併參考。

Ralink Technology (雷凌 3534) - Macquarie Research

The stock price was relatively resilient recently, we believe, due to Street expectations for its sales and GM recovery. However, we suspect the disappointing sales and GM outlook will prompt a further sell-off. We maintain an Underperform and will review our rating when we see more-significant market-share gains and/or a stabilisation in Ralink’s margin trend.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Ralink 3534 雷凌研究報告

Realtek Semiconductor (瑞昱 2379) - Macquarie Research

We maintain our Underperform rating on Realtek and cut our TP to NT$42 (from NT$50), still based on the ROE-g/COE-g fair value appraisal. We believe the soft 4Q08 and 2009 outlook will be a negative catalyst for the stock price.

We suggest selling the stock. We believe the recent resilient performance will end soon, as the company’s disappointing outlook and earnings cuts by the street could be negative catalysts for the stock price. We suspect the stock price will test the ROE-g/COE-g fair value (NT$42) again if not break. Maintain Underperform.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Realtek 2379 瑞昱研究報告 - MACQ ，另提供 Realtek 2379 瑞昱研究報告 - 美林、Realtek 2379 瑞昱研究報告 - 高盛予各位一併參考。

Sunplus Technology (凌陽 2401) - Goldman Sachs Research

3Q below expectations, no visibility on weak consumer demand

Sunplus reported 3Q08 EPS NT$0.31, 42% lower than our estimate. The company missed our sales forecast by 22%; however, the main upside for its operating profit (NT$218 mn vs. our estimate of NT$160 mn) comes from the better GM (46.9% vs. our estimate of 40.8%) – mostly contributed by higher Silicon Image royalty income, FX gains, and better product mix. The non-operating loss of NT$15 mn was well below our estimate of operating income of NT$203 mn due to the investment loss from its subsidiaries. Management did not provide clear 4Q08 guidance, but was generally more cautious on weak consumer demand visibility.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Sunplus 2401 凌陽研究報告 - 高盛，另提供 Sunplus 2401 凌陽研究報告 - MACQ 予各位一併參考。

Global Mixed-mode Technology (致新 8081) - Goldman Sachs Research

Global Mixed-mode Technology (GMT) announced its audited 3Q results. The top line result was in line with our estimates. GMT’s 2008 3Q EPS was NT$3.54, which was lower than our estimate by 7%. We slightly revise down our 2008E GAAP EPS forecasts by 3% but revise our 2009E GAAP EPS and 2010E GAAP EPS by 1%, respectively. Our new GAAP EPS estimates are NT$8.82, NT$9.61 and NT$11.66 for 2008E, 2009E and 2010E, respectively. We have not changed our investment thesis or Neutral rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 8081 致新研究報告

———————-11/15 新增外資研究報告—————————

Phison Electronics (群聯 8299) - Morgan Stanley Research

Phison (8299.TWO) Analyst
Meeting Key Takeaways

Management expects 2008 revenue to be down Y/Y. November/December sales will decline M/M after 22% M/M growth in October. For 2008, management aims for NT$500mn or ~NT$4.40 EPS on Q/Q profits growth in 4Q08 (October gross margin improved to ~7% from 3% in 3Q08; continued gross margin improvement in November). Phison is trading on 13x 2008e consensus P/E and 1.3x 3Q08 P/B.

欲閱讀全文者請按 PHISON 8299 群聯

Ralink Technology (雷凌 3534) - Citi Investment Research

Sell: Weaker Sales Signal Pricing Squeeze; Lower Target Price

Reiterate Sell (3H) — We reiterate our negative view on Ralink and lower our target price to NT$78, on 10-11x 09E earnings. Given rising uncertainty and more order cutbacks, we fear the competitive pricing environment will continue to worsen and affect Ralink into 1H09E.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Ralink Technology 3534 雷凌

Richtek (立錡 6286) - Merrill Lynch Research

Takeaways from analyst meeting

Retain Underperform
Despite a 15% share price correction in recent months, the stock still trades at a premium P/E to its local and global peers. We do not see any near-term catalysts for the stock given the uncertain tech demand and macro headwinds. We could turn more positive on the stock when we have better visibility on its new product delivery. Retain Underperform with PO of NT$145 (14x FY09 EPS).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Richtek Technology 6286 立錡

11/27新增

Realtek Semiconductor (瑞昱 2379) - BNP PARIBAS Research

802.11n is the most exciting product for Realtek in 2009
Realtek is scheduled to sample out its 802.11n single chip by year-end. On one side, we notice Realtek uses 65nm process (ahead of Ralink’s 90nm process) on its 802.11n single chip with better cost structure. On
the other hand, we notice Realtek further integrated PA (USD 0.5-0.6 cost saving) into its single chip (MAC/Baseband/RF). We believe the revenue from WLAN ICs will contribute 12% of total revenue, up from
10% in 2008, indicating nearly 20% y-y growth.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Realtek 2379 瑞昱研究報告 - BNP