Nanya Technology Corp. (南科 2408) – Morgan Stanley

Banks Own More Than Investors

Quick Comment – Conclusion: On ~70% liabilities/ assets ratio, 0.8x P/B, Nanya is ~75% owned by creditors and only 25% owned by investors (Formosa group ~50% shareholder). Timing is everything. It’s better for Nanya to transition from Qimonda’s vanishing trench technology to Micron’s stacked technology in a
DRAM downturn. Nanya will lose some fab capacity during transition in 4Q08/1Q09 (just like other DRAM
makers shut down some capacities for recess to reduce bleeding). In a DRAM downturn; less shipments will
lead to a smaller loss although variable cost will first increase initially until crossover in 2H09.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Nanya 2408 南科 研究報告 

Nanya Technology Corp. (南科 2408) – Merrill Lynch

Challenging period ahead 

Poor margins continue; lowering PO and EPS by 16-19%
We do not see any meaningful upside for Nanya Technology. Downbeat 3Q margins (operating loss of NT$6.0bn at -52% OPM vs MLe: -49%) and a cashcost- level DRAM spot price prompt us to revise down 2008 and 2009 EPS by 16% and 19%, respectively. As a result, we lower our price objective by 18% to
NT$4.1. We reiterate our Underperform rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Nanya 2408 南科 研究報告 – 美林 

Inotera Memories, Inc. (華亞科 3474) – Morgan Stanley

The Survivor Pick 

Quick Comment – Conclusion: On superior business model, Inotera is the only DRAM maker in Taiwan with
positive cash margin in downturn. Cash is king. Cost of capital is no longer cheap in Taiwan. But Taiwan still has a laborious talented human capital. Production cost difference is what attracts technology partners to Taiwan. As all DRAM makers are cutting wafers production to reduce cash loss; the best time for Inotera to transition from trench to stacked in a downturn. Capacity loss leads to less losses overall. We expect ~30% Y/Y bits growth for Inotera in 2009. Inotera should benefit from next DRAM upcycle in 2010 with good cost structure on more certain stacked technology roadmap.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3474 華亞科 研究報告

Inotera Memories, Inc. (華亞科 3474) – Merrill Lynch

Micron will likely not warrant upside 

Micron deal presents risks, PO and EPS lowered 18-20%
We believe Micron’s 35.6% Inotera stake acquisition from Qimonda will not warrant stock upside or shareholder value creation. We worry about potential corporate governance risks and start-up costs to adopt new Micron technologies. Inotera’s 3Q loss appears higher than our estimate (net loss: NT$4.0 actual vs NT$3.0bn). The current DRAM spot price is about 10-20% lower than consensus or our forecast. Against this backdrop, we lower our price objective 18% to NT$6.5, and cut 2008-09E EPS by 18-20%. We reiterate our Underperform rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Inotera Memories Inc 3474 華亞科 研究報告

AU Optronics (友達 2409) – Citi Investment Research

Buy: Over 35% YoY Capex Cut in 2009E likely to Slow Supply 

BUY into trough — AUO is now trading below the prior three cycles’ trailing trough P/BVs of 0.9x for 2001, 1.1x for 2003, and 1.6x for 2H04. We believe downside is limited and reiterate our Buy (1L) rating. However, we are slashing our target price to NT$40 from NT$66.5 as losses might last and widen for 2-3 quarters to drag the share price to 1x book.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告

AU Optronics (友達 2409) – Macquarie Research

3Q08 results preview 

Price catalyst
12-month price target: NT$40.00 based on a Price to Book methodology.
Catalyst: The demand response to lower LCD TV Street prices will be a key factor for panel price stability and the direction of the TFT-LCD cycle.

Action and recommendation
We maintain an Outperform but lower our target price from NT$61 to NT$40 based on a 2009E P/BV of 1.1x. We believe the stock should trade above its book value on a 12-month view before a return to profitability in 2Q09 and 2H09. Our previous target price of NT$61 (ex-dividend) was based on 1.6x our preceding 2008E BV/sh estimate. Historically, the stock has traded at an average P/BV of 1.6x with a high of 3.5x and low of 0.6x.

We believe the losses and TFT-LCD downcycle in 2H08 should be mostly discounted. Since 1 August, when it became apparent that panel pricing would fall sharply to cash COGS, AUO has outperformed the TWSE index by 11%.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告 – MACQ

Chi Mei Opto (奇美 3009) – Citi Investment Research

Downgrade to Sell: Rising Company Specific Risks 

Downgrade to Sell — Despite CMO already breaking below its prior trailing trough P/BV, we have decided to downgrade the name to Sell (3L) from Buy (1L) and cut our target price to NT$15 from NT$45.5 as we believe this company will bring larger downside risks to investors by carrying a higher gearing ratio, weaker FCF yield, and larger book value contraction.

欲閱讀全文者請按 CMO 3009 奇美 研究報告

10/31 新增 群創 3481、華映 2475、彩晶  6116 等三檔個股的外資研究報告

Innolux Display Corporation (群創 3481) – Merrill Lynch

Poor 3Q results, down to Underperform

Downgrade from BUY to Underperform, NT$22 PO
We downgrade Innolux from Buy to Underperform (currently 6 Buys, 4 Neutral and 1 Sell per Bberg) and reduce our PO to NT$22 on 0.7x 09E PBV (below its historical 0.9-5.5x PBV range). After very poor 3Q results, we expect deep losses in 4Q08/1H09, disproving the theory of its more “defensive” panel+assembly
business model and lead us to use PBV valuations, similar to other panel makers.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Innolux 群創 3481 研究報告 – 美林 ，另外提供 Innolux 群創 3481 研究報告 – 高盛 予各位一併參考

HannStar (彩晶 6116) – Macquarie Research

3Q08 net loss of NT$3.2bn

Action and recommendation
We maintain an Outperform rating, but lower our target price from NT$13.3 to NT$7.0 based on a 2009E P/BV of 0.7x. Our previous target price was based on 1.0x our preceding 2008 book value estimate. We lower our target multiple to reflect low demand visibility. HannStar should weather the current downturn
well because it has one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry, with a net cash position. Management believes the stock is undervalued and is currently undertaking the second share buyback of this year.

欲閱讀全文者請按 HannStar 6116 彩晶 研究報告 – MACQ ，另外提供 HannStar 6116 彩晶 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley 予各位一併參考

CPT (華映 2475) – Macquarie Research

3Q08 net loss of NT$6.1bn

Action and recommendation
We maintain an Outperform rating but lower our target price from NT$10.0 to NT$4.2 based on a 2009E P/BV of 0.6x. Our previous target price was based on 1.0x our preceding 2008 book value estimate. We lower our target multiple to reflect low demand visibility and concerns over CPT’s high debt gearing
and credit risk.

欲閱讀全文者請按 CPT 2475 華映 研究報告 – MACQ ，另外提供 CPT 2475 華映 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley 予各位一併參考

11/15 新增 友達、奇美、DRAM產業、TFT LCD產業 的外資研究報告

Chi Mei Opto (奇美 3009) – BNP Paribas Research

At the epicentre of all fears: REDUCE
3Q in-line record loss; it was just the beginning
CMO’s 3Q08 loss of TWD4.2b was in-line with our estimate. While the 3Q was just the start of CMO’s expected loss making multi-quarters, this loss was record-breaking. Its net debt/equity ratio rose to 74% (2Q: 56%), as CMO drew down additional TWD63b of debt ahead of the deadline for ‘last drawdown’ of the earlier signed syndicated loan.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Chi Mei Optoelectronics 3009 奇美

AU Optronics (友達 2409) – Citi Investment Research

Buy: Consensus Cut Might Accelerate Again Due to Weaker Oct
Mixed shift to PC panels from TV — AUO reported Oct. consolidated sales of NT$27.3bn, down 21% mom and 49% yoy, falling short of our estimates of 10- 15% mom decline in Oct. We believe the larger than expected fall is not driven by shipment (-9% mom in large panel and flattish on small panel) but by mix
shift to PC panel from TV, resulting in blended ASP decline of 15-17% mom for AUO vs. apple-to-apple price decline of 5-7% mom in Oct.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AU Optronics 2409 友達

Taiwan DRAM Sector (台灣DRAM產業) - Deutsche Bank Research

Committed to memory : Taiwan outlines DRAM plan
With repayments looming, MoEA sketches out DRAM rescue plans
The Taiwan government yesterday began to clarify the steps that may be taken to save struggling DRAM makers. In this report, we outline the forthcoming debt repayment schedules for the four companies under our coverage, and speculate on how this situation may evolve. Our DRAM thesis remains unchanged – that
over the coming year, increasing financial pressures will drive consolidation, but the industry’s oversupply is likely to abate somewhat.

Risk/reward profile appears positive
We value our DRAM universe based on historical mid cycle average multiples. Given the likelihood of bankruptcy protection in Taiwan, it appears that the worst case scenarios will be averted. We like Powerchip, Nanya Tech and Inotera. Downside risks to our thesis include further declines in consumer sentiment, an
unexpectedly sharp cut in IT budgets, and a greater-than-expected netbook share.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan DRAM Sector

Taiwan Taiwan TFT LCD Sector Sector (台灣面板產業) - Macquarie Research

Oct large panel sales down 27% MoM
The outlook from here has very limited visibility. The big swing factor is the response in LCD TV demand to lower prices during the November and December holiday season. 4Q is the busiest sell-through period and usually accounts for about 40% of total TV end-demand for the year. Average retail prices for LCD TVs should be cheaper by 20-45% compared with mid-2008 and 30-50% a year ago (Figure 6). The nature of the sell-through will set the tone for demand and pricing elasticity for 2009.

Panel prices should moderate their declines from here (Figure 7-10). Prices should fall by 10–15% QoQ in 4Q08, less than the fall of 12–26% in 3Q08. For November, we expect a decline of 5–10% MoM. Prices will not be finalised until the end of the month, as has been the case for the previous few months. Price declines are moderating as suppliers are producing near their cash COGS (Figure 2) and, consequently, are lowering utilisation rates.

Meanwhile, the industry has reduced supply and capex (Figures 3 and 4) for both 2008 and 2009. We estimate that large panel supply growth by area will be down to a new historical low of 15–20% in 2009, down from 25–30% in 2008. Capex in 2009 will be down by 34%, based on our survey. 

Regionally, we have a Neutral view on the TFT-LCD sector due to weak demand related to macroeconomic issues. We are relatively more positive on Taiwanese TFT-LCD stocks because of lower valuations and better capex discipline. Our top pick is AUO, the bluechip leader in Taiwan.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD Sector

—————01/20新增—————-

Chi Mei Opto (奇美 3009) - Citi Paribas Research

Correction: Sell: Warning – Inventory Losses Might Be Expanded in 4Q08E
3Q in-line record loss; it was just the beginning
Reiterate Sell — We reiterate our Sell (3L) on CMO based on its higher gearing ratio on the balance sheet and large contraction in its book value amid the short-term negative outlook. In addition, we see likely one-off inventory losses following panel prices decline in 4Q08.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3009 CMO 奇美 研究報告 – 花旗

AU Optronics (友達 2409) - Macquarie Investment Research

Bad news is behind
We estimate a 4Q08 net loss of NT$24.6bn (loss per share (LPS) of NT$2.90). This is bigger than our previous estimate of NT$11.2bn. We believe AUO will write down inventory in 4Q08 amounting to about NT$10bn as the company prepares for the new regulation #10 taking effect from 1Q09. We estimate 4Q08 operating/EBITDA margin will fall to -40/-6% from +3/+22% in 3Q08 as the inventory write-downs will likely be taken in COGS. We believe these losses should already be discounted with forward-looking guidance and ASPs as key catalysts. While the losses from the inventory write-downs are significant, they will set a clean slate for 2009 and allow for a lower cost base.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告 – MACQ

Taiwan Taiwan TFT LCD Sector Sector (台灣面板產業) - Morgan Stanley Research

Consolidation to Defy Gravity

Investment conclusion: We prefer AUO over CMO this cycle. Since inception, AUO and CMO have made
comparable investments; but AUO generated ~2x of operating cashflow (~15% larger in paid in capital).
Scale matters; consolidation is inevitable. Hypothetical analysis: as a new industry leader, potential AUO/CMO merger could (1) differentiate in capital market to command valuation premium for better capital market access, (2) reduce costs by avoiding investment duplication, (3) result in changes to the business model. Samsung has Corning glass JV to share profits; LG Display has glass JV with NEG. A new Taiwan TFT
leader could request glass joint venture to ensure motherglass supply and capture foodchain profits and
avoid being the bargaining chips of Sony/Samsung’s internal buffered capacities.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley

—————02/25新增—————-

CPT (華映 2475) – Morgan Stanley Research

Analyst Meeting Takeaways

CPT is seeing some rush orders in monitor and TV panels benefiting from inventory re-stocking and China rural TV subsidies. For 1Q09, CPT guides for flat Q/Q shipments for large size panels and small size panels at 40-50% fab utilization. CPT sees monitor panel prices increasing M/M again in February (this reflects panel makers’ reluctance to produce below cash cost at trough utilization). CPT strives to minimize cash
outflow in 2009 at minimal capex. CPT will increase its 18.5”, 20”W and 21.6” monitor shipment mix in 1Q09 at the expense of notebooks on a notebook inventory correction (notebook panel prices will stay flat until inventory clears).

欲閱讀全文者請按 CPT 2475 華映 研究報告 – MS

Taiwan Taiwan TFT LCD Sector Sector (台灣面板產業) - Macquarie Research

Panel prices in February

Regionally, we have a neutral view on the TFT-LCD sector. Price rises are led by supply-side factors and may not hold beyond 1Q09 since end-demand is weak. We recommend taking profit into this rally. We would turn positive if the price rebound is sustainable and demand is clearly recovering. 

We are more positive on Taiwanese panel makers, which have lower P/BV valuations. Our top picks remain AUO and InnoLux. In addition, tighter relationships with Chinese TV brands and a boost in demand from the rural subsidy should help AUO and CMO improve the strength of their customer base. This helps to narrow the advantages that Korean and Japanese panel makers have from supplying internally to their own affiliated brands.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD 研究報告 – MACQ

Taiwan DRAM Sector (台灣DRAM產業) - Morgan Stanley Research

Memory Module Industry
Over the cycle, well-managed memory module makers, such as Transcend, have outperformed pure memory fab operators, such as Powerchip and Nanya. Since 1999, Transcend has achieved average ROIC/ROE of 20%/23% versus negative figures for the Taiwan DRAM industry. Scale matters in the memory module industry. Amid DRAM/NAND shortages, larger module makers have better access to limited chip supply.
Amid oversupply, larger module companies have better pricing power and can react quicker to clear inventory.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan DRAM 研究報告 – MS

AU Optronics (友達 2409) – Merrill Lynch Research

Bottoming out, upgrade to BUY 

The worst is over, upgrade to BUY – NT$30.2 PO (1x PBV)
We are upgrading AUO from Neutral to BUY (NT$30.2 PO, 1.0x 09E PBV) as we think the worst is behind the company. No V-shaped recovery, 09E LCD oversupply (BAS-ML 7%), big 09E losses (BAS-ML NT$38.6bn versus NT$27.6bn previously) and negative ROE are widely expected at this point, but at 0.8x 09E PBV, long-term risk/reward is turning favorable in our view as a) sharp supply-side cuts are under way, b) 1Q loss for AUO should not be worse than 4Q, and c) 2Q blended ASP likely to stabilize and losses to narrow in 2H09 as industry awaits demand catalyst return.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告 – 美林

相關文章

• Taiwan TFT LCD / AU Optronics 2409 友達 / CMO 3009 奇美
• Taiwan strategy(Financial status – time for an EKG)
• 面板製造公司( TFT LCD )是一個好的投資標的？！
• DRAM 公司是不是一個好的投資標的？！
• 由Buy Side與Sell Side建立閱讀外資研究報告的正確態度
• 原油 / 總體經濟 / 半導體 / 主機板 / 筆記型電腦 / 半導體 / 塑化
• 光寶 / 閎輝 / 友訊 / 合勤 / 健鼎 / 聯電 / 華邦電 / 東元

Lowering earnings and PO given further ASP risks, Neutral
AUO’s share price has ~15% bounce recently, but we retain our cautious view on the LCD sector. IT ASP drop of ~20% in 3Q far exceeds our expectation (10-15%) and we expect EPS drop of 79% QoQ. AUO is tier 1 but unfortunately the worst is not over in our view as we see further risk (15-20%) to 4Q ASPs and oversupply
in 1H09, and lower 08E net profit to NT$47bn (-28%) and 09E to NT$8.4bn (NT$36.7bn prior). We lower our PO to NT$36 on 0.9x 08E PBV (-19%), but believe there is risk the stock could overshoot to the downside before year-end.

Demand remains tepid, ASP “stabilization” only temporary
While 1H Oct monitor ASP will be flattish MoM, giving short-term “hope』 of ASP “bottoming』, we caution that we believe it’s temporary as checks show monitor demand is rolling over on order cuts from major OEMs, while TV demand remains muted in areas such as Europe. Risk of inv adj after peak season is growing and we expect 4Q qtrly ASP to fall another 15-20% QoQ to cash cost (we aren’t there yet), leading to losses in 4Q and 1H09, and for 09E sales and earnings to decline YoY.

Foray into LCD TV assembly bears watching longer-term

We believe AUO’s JV with Qisda, although small in size and scope, signals AUO’s strategic intention to become more involved in LCD TV assembly rather than just being purely a panel supplier. The benefits include guaranteed TV production 『outlet” and a boost to top line, while challenges could be potential impact to margin/ROE and inventory management risk, as well as increased working capital burden.

以上是美林證券(Merrill Lynch)關於友達 (2409) 的研究報告摘要。該份報告表示，雖然友達的股價反彈將近15%，但是第三季的ASP(平均接單價格 ; 平均銷售價格 ; Average Selling Price )下滑20%，預估第三季EPS將呈現比第二季下滑79%的情況，且第四季的ASP仍有下滑壓力，09年上半年將出現超額供給，估計08年獲利為470億元，09年下滑至84億元。

下面則為法國巴黎銀行(BNP Paribas)對友達(2409)的研究報告摘要

• AUO’s foray into TV set assembly, via JV with Qisda, aims to strengthen ties with TV customers/add earnings stability.
• Risks: Expanding geographic reach + steep TV assembly learning curve + customers’ intent to outsource to the JV.
• TP: TWD39 (1x ’08-09 P/BV). LT value emerges on recent trough retest, as it will fare this downturn better than peers.

AUO’s foray into TV set assembly, a right move
AU Optronics’ (AUO) set-up of a 60:40 LCD TV set assembly JV with Qisda confirms our earlier view on its interest in ‘forward integrating’ downstream set assembly. While TV set assembly garners a low profit
margin, it enhances profit stability and fosters closer business ties with its panel customers, especially those smaller/non tier-1 TV brand names. TV brand names outside the global top five outsourced 36% of
their 2Q08 set assembly needs, versus 14% from the top five.

… but a few roadblocks to pass through for the JV
While Qisda’s LCD TV set assembly sites are ready for transfer to the JV, the capacity is limited (1-2m units pa). The JV needs to expand both the production site scale/geographic reach in the EU/US (2/3 of global
LCD TV market), where TV import tariffs are high. Highly customized LCD TVs make assembly more complex than monitors, as shown by the slow progress from Qisda and even Innolux. We are also concerned
about its TV panel customers’ willingness to outsource set assembly to the JV. While Philips (the only top-five LCD TV brand) and smaller/non tier-1 TV brands show more interest in outsourcing, their market shares are at risk.

4Q08-2Q09 loss, but 2009 panel capacity pull-in on track
By factoring in sharper panel price cuts, we expect AUO to post losses in 4Q08-2Q09. While 2009 capex will likely drop sharply, AUO is on track to pull in capacity for its G7.5/8.5 hybrid fab (equipment POs/down
payments made early this year leave little room for push-back). Our view is based on: 1) its 2009 capacity growth in-line with industry demand; and 2) its plan to get G8.5 fab ready before ≥42-inch market takes off.

Long-term value emerges on retest of recent trough
We continue to rate AUO a HOLD, with our end-2008 price target at TWD38.00 (1.0x 2008-09E P/BV). We remain wary about the tenacity of panel order builds/price stabilization and thus a retest of its recent trough is likely, putting it back to its historical trough of 0.7-0.8x P/BV in 2001 and early 2003. That said, we see long-term value emerge at that level, given AUO’s sound financial status. Current credit tightening + soft business backdrop will make its closest peer – CMO hard to maintain its rapid pace of capacity builds, alleviating the LT competitive pressure in the outsourced panel market (a plus for AUO).

BNP預估08年友達的獲利為527億元，09年則下滑至84億元，與美林差異較大的是08年的獲利預估，不過09年的獲利預估則二者相近。

從這篇報告我們可以看到面板(TFT LCD)這個產業的供需狀況變化很大，導致獲利可以呈現80%以上的下滑幅度。

在這一篇 『面板製造公司( TFT LCD )是一個好的投資標的？！』 文章中，正通投資團隊已經對於面板產業提供了相當多的投資建議，在此就不再贅述，這二篇報告除了提供各位參考外，各位投資朋友應可體會出為何面板產業的相關公司一向不在價值投資法的個股觀察名單中。

2409 友達 研究報告 – BNP     2409 友達 研究報告 – 美林

10/21 新增

Taiwan TFT LCD – Morgan Stanley Research
V-Shaped or L-Shaped?

Investment conclusion: To prevent an L-shaped scenario, AUO/CMO need to continue cutting utilization
in 4Q08/1Q09. Accounting rule 10 implementation in 1Q09 on inventory valuation will likely bring more
scrutiny of inventory management to avoid future write-downs. There’s no floor on AUO/CMO utilization
as key is to control inventory in a downcycle. On global credit crisis, consumer spending this Christmas will
likely be weak. TFT demand is inelastic short term; both prices and volumes have come down sharply in 2H08. When inventory correction ends, we see the reverse happening by 2H09 on both price and volume increases, leading to a V-shaped recovery as profitability improves on faster cost reduction when utilization increases post inventory correction completion.

Chi Mei Optoelectronics Corp. (奇美 ; 3009) – Merrill Lynch Research

The worst is not yet over, keep Under-perform

Risks are rising, lower PO and reiterate Under-perform
We retain our cautious view on LCD industry and under-perform rating on CMO and cut PO to NT$19.4 (-19%) on 0.6x 08E PBV (close to trough), as ~20% IT ASP drop in 3Q far exceed our expectations, and unfortunately the worst is not over in our view as we see further risk to 4Q ASPs and oversupply in 1H09. We
lower 08E net profit by 18% to NT$24bn and now project 09E net loss of NT$7bn (vs NT$6.7bn profit previously) due to deeper than expected downturn into 1H09.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD 研究報告、 3009 CMO 奇美 研究報告 下載

11/27新增

Taiwan TFT LCD Sector – Merrill Lynch Research

Lowering estimates on new supply/demand model

Oversupply to persist in 09E
Our recently revised global ML TFT-LCD model shows oversupply should stay at over 110% in 09E, or excess capacity of 10%, with 26% YoY supply growth and only 10% YoY demand growth. Our new PC demand projections point to -14% YoY desktop and 10% YoY NB growth in 09, thus half of LCD demand should be
flat with no incremental growth. Recent US sell-through data suggests that LCD TV demand fell off the cliff from late Sept. Area demand growth should decelerate to only 10% YoY in 09E versus 60% CAGR over the past eight years.

2H November panel prices show TV ASP collapse
2H Nov monitor ASP fell 5% HoH (10-12% MoM), NB fell 6-8% HoH (10-15% MoM) and TV saw sharp fall of 7-8% HoH (10-13% MoM). 4Q-to-date, monitor ASPs are down 16-18%, NB are down 12-18%, and LCD TV ASPs are down 13- 20% QTD. This is much worse than our previous expectations and far below panel maker’s 4Q guidance of high-single digit to low-teens % decline for TV and IT panels. We firmly believe that both monitor and TV panel prices will hit cash costs levels, probably sometime in early 1H09 in our view.

Balance sheet woes leading to capex cuts in 09E
We believe the LCD industry is entering deep downturn complicated by consumer/ macro and gearing levels and balance sheet risks set against spending are key issues in a tightening credit environment. CMO’s high net debt/equity (74%) and weak balance sheet (net debt/market cap ~300%) are squeezing the company,
and 09E capex will fall 65% YoY to NT$35bn. For AUO, we expect 09E capex to drop 40% YoY to NT$60bn as both companies scale back 09E 8.5G plans.

Lowering estimates, PO on AUO and CMO
With rapid drop in 4Q ASP (even beyond our previously conservative assumption) and our change in supply/demand model, we lower our 09E earnings for CMO from -NT$19bn to –NT$30bn and lower PO to NT$9.7 on 0.4x 09E PBV (-19%), Underperform. For AUO, we now expect NT$16.7bn net loss in 09 and lower PO to NT$23.4 on 0.68x 09E PBV (-19%) and keep Neutral. We acknowledge that CMO’s recent buyback can provide short-term support from oversold levels, but we remain cautious on the LCD sector until a  undamental catalyst can emerge.

Medium term signals to watch for
We remain cautious on LCD sector as current valuation seems undemanding and sector lacks fundamental catalysts. While near-term news flow and fundamentals should remain highly negative, some medium term signals to watch for include a) low expectations for Xmas sell thru leading to 1H09 inventory restocking  ounce, b) balance sheet woes driving out weaker players, or c) meaningful industry c onsolidation in TWN leading to better long-term structural health of the industry.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan LCD Sector 台灣LCD產業研究報告 – Merrill Lynch ，另提供 Taiwan LCD Sector 台灣LCD產業研究報告 – DB 予各位一併參考。

相關文章

• 南科 / 華亞科 / 奇美 / 友達 / 群創 / 華映 / 彩晶 / 面板產業
• 面板製造公司( TFT LCD )是一個好的投資標的？！
• Taiwan strategy(Financial status – time for an EKG)
• 由Buy Side與Sell Side建立閱讀外資研究報告的正確態度
• 投資的第一堂課-認識風險 (下)
• 光寶 / 閎輝 / 友訊 / 合勤 / 健鼎 / 聯電 / 華邦電 / 東元
• 聯詠 / 智原 / 雷凌 / 瑞昱 / 凌陽 / 群聯 / 致新 / 立錡

對於電子專業的人來說，這是一個笨問題，因為根本完全不同，但是對於投資專業的人來說…..還真的看不出有何不同？尤其當時很多投資機構對於面板這個產業還不太熟悉！

當時對於投資機構而言，他們最大的疑慮就是….面板業會不會像DRAM產業一樣，必須不斷投入巨額資金來建構』進入障礙』？如果答案是Yes，那麼這個不斷燒錢的動作，要持續多久才能結束？

我們先來看友達與奇美這二大產業龍頭，最近八年的EPS表現：

看來算是很不錯對吧，2007年的EPS可是創新高呢！而這八年來只有2001年出現虧損，其餘七年都是保持獲利！

我們再來看友達與奇美這二大產業龍頭，最近八年的現金流量表現：

友達：                                                                                                                   單位：千元

或許你一時還看不出端倪來，如果我們累計…..(營運活動的現金流入 － 投資活動的現金流出) 呢？

答案是…. -43,821,256 ，這表示友達這八年來透過營運所產生的現金流入，扣除掉固定資產(土地、廠房、機器設備…等)、長期投資….等投資活動的現金流出後，現金流出了438億元左右！換句話說，自由現金流量是負的438億元。

為了要補足這部分的現金流出，公司必須仰賴理財活動來產生現金流入，例如現金增資、發行公司債、增加借款….等方式。

下表是奇美最近八年的現金流量彙整：                                                                                         單位：千元

我們一樣來看 (營運活動的現金流入 － 投資活動的現金流出) 的結果為何？答案是….-257,339,597，這表示不考慮理財活動的話，現金流出了2,573億元！換句話說，自由現金流量是負的2573億元，非常恐怖的一個數字。

如果我們只從現金流量這個角度來看的話….面板股是不是一個好的』投資標的』？答案是…NO！而且從這個角度來看…..過去的航空股 ＝ 現在的DRAM股 ，而未來的面板股 ＝ 現在的DRAM股嗎？ 我個人是蠻擔心這種情勢的發展！

PS：二大龍頭廠都已經是如此了，華映與彩晶就無須列表說明了。 

另一個值得討論的事情是….巴菲特有投資航空股嗎？

巴菲特曾經投資過航空公司，他以詼諧的口吻表示…..還好當時及早賣出，因為幾年後該公司就破產清算了。不過….巴菲特對航空產業依舊保持興趣，但是買進的不是航空股，而是飛機製造公司。值得討論之處在於….航空公司現金流量長期為負數的表現，因為它們把錢都拿去買飛機了，所以巴菲特轉向去投資飛機製造商，同樣的面板與DRAM的公司，錢都拿去買設備了，賺到現金流量的是誰？答案已經呼之欲出。

相關文章

• Taiwan TFT LCD / AU Optronics 2409 友達 / CMO 3009 奇美
• 南科 / 華亞科 / 奇美 / 友達 / 群創 / 華映 / 彩晶 / 面板產業
• Taiwan strategy(Financial status – time for an EKG)
• 價值投資法的介紹(二)
• 個股合理價值(內涵價值)的衡量方法(一)
• DRAM 公司是不是一個好的投資標的？！
• 自由現金流量(FCF)的介紹