聯詠 / 智原 / 雷凌 / 瑞昱 / 凌陽 / 群聯 / 致新 / 立錡

austin — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 13:27:32 +0000

以下為本週外資研究報告中，關於IC設計的聯詠 3034、智原 3035、雷凌 3534、瑞昱 2379、凌陽 2401、群聯 8299與致新 8081等IC設計(IC Design)公司，提供各位建立產業與相關公司的基礎認知，切勿作為個人買賣依據或對外散播。

研究報告的更新方式為….新增列於本文最下方！

Novatek Microelectronics (聯詠 3034) - Macquarie Research

While Novatek’s stock price may still have some pressure due to soft panel outlook, we continue to believe that the company deserves a revisit on its good execution, healthy balance sheet, and positive net cashflow as well as high cash yield. The better-than-expected GM should also ease some margin erosion concern. Value-driven investors may consider Novatek and Himax (HIMX US, US$1.92, OP, TP: US$3.2).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Novatek 3034 聯詠研究報告 – MACQ ，另提供 Novatek 3034 聯詠研究報告 – 花旗予各位一併參考。

Faraday (智原 3035) - Deutsche Bank Research

Weakening growth outlook; retain Sell

The company is competing with fabless customers directly by working with system makers. This should trigger market share loss in fabless customers in the long term. We expect the company to experience gross margin erosion and an earnings growth slowdown from 2009 onwards due to an unfavorable product mix
and poor design capability on advanced technology nodes. We maintain our earnings forecast and TP and reiterate our Sell rating.

Our TP is based on 12.8x US GAAP 2009E EPS, which is in line with the 2003-07 trough. We believe this is justified by its 2009E-10E earnings CAGR of 4%, which is lower than the 2003-07 CAGR of 48%. We believe growth deceleration may lead the stock to trade close to the historical trough. Upside risks include faster
share gain in system makers and technology migration.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Faraday 3035 智原研究報告

Phison Electronics (群聯 8299) - Macquarie Research

A possible survivor, but too expensive

Following disappointing 3Q08 results and our conservative view on NAND Flash, we cut our earnings forecast and target price significantly for Phison. Our rating remains at Underperform and our new target price is NT$30 (8x 2009E PER) from NT$110 previously.

Our stance on Phison reflects our long-standing conservative view of major NAND Flash players, supported by the disappointing 3Q08 results seen across the region. We await clearer signals of a growth in NAND Flash demand before reviewing our investment view.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Phison 8299 群聯研究報告 – MACQ ，另提供 Phison 8299 群聯研究報告 – 高盛予各位一併參考。

Ralink Technology (雷凌 3534) - Macquarie Research

The stock price was relatively resilient recently, we believe, due to Street expectations for its sales and GM recovery. However, we suspect the disappointing sales and GM outlook will prompt a further sell-off. We maintain an Underperform and will review our rating when we see more-significant market-share gains and/or a stabilisation in Ralink’s margin trend.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Ralink 3534 雷凌研究報告

Realtek Semiconductor (瑞昱 2379) - Macquarie Research

We maintain our Underperform rating on Realtek and cut our TP to NT$42 (from NT$50), still based on the ROE-g/COE-g fair value appraisal. We believe the soft 4Q08 and 2009 outlook will be a negative catalyst for the stock price.

We suggest selling the stock. We believe the recent resilient performance will end soon, as the company’s disappointing outlook and earnings cuts by the street could be negative catalysts for the stock price. We suspect the stock price will test the ROE-g/COE-g fair value (NT$42) again if not break. Maintain Underperform.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Realtek 2379 瑞昱研究報告 – MACQ ，另提供 Realtek 2379 瑞昱研究報告 – 美林、Realtek 2379 瑞昱研究報告 – 高盛予各位一併參考。

Sunplus Technology (凌陽 2401) - Goldman Sachs Research

3Q below expectations, no visibility on weak consumer demand

Sunplus reported 3Q08 EPS NT$0.31, 42% lower than our estimate. The company missed our sales forecast by 22%; however, the main upside for its operating profit (NT$218 mn vs. our estimate of NT$160 mn) comes from the better GM (46.9% vs. our estimate of 40.8%) – mostly contributed by higher Silicon Image royalty income, FX gains, and better product mix. The non-operating loss of NT$15 mn was well below our estimate of operating income of NT$203 mn due to the investment loss from its subsidiaries. Management did not provide clear 4Q08 guidance, but was generally more cautious on weak consumer demand visibility.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Sunplus 2401 凌陽研究報告 – 高盛，另提供 Sunplus 2401 凌陽研究報告 – MACQ 予各位一併參考。

Global Mixed-mode Technology (致新 8081) - Goldman Sachs Research

Global Mixed-mode Technology (GMT) announced its audited 3Q results. The top line result was in line with our estimates. GMT’s 2008 3Q EPS was NT$3.54, which was lower than our estimate by 7%. We slightly revise down our 2008E GAAP EPS forecasts by 3% but revise our 2009E GAAP EPS and 2010E GAAP EPS by 1%, respectively. Our new GAAP EPS estimates are NT$8.82, NT$9.61 and NT$11.66 for 2008E, 2009E and 2010E, respectively. We have not changed our investment thesis or Neutral rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 8081 致新研究報告

———————-11/15 新增外資研究報告—————————

Phison Electronics (群聯 8299) - Morgan Stanley Research

Phison (8299.TWO) Analyst
Meeting Key Takeaways

Management expects 2008 revenue to be down Y/Y. November/December sales will decline M/M after 22% M/M growth in October. For 2008, management aims for NT$500mn or ~NT$4.40 EPS on Q/Q profits growth in 4Q08 (October gross margin improved to ~7% from 3% in 3Q08; continued gross margin improvement in November). Phison is trading on 13x 2008e consensus P/E and 1.3x 3Q08 P/B.

欲閱讀全文者請按 PHISON 8299 群聯

Ralink Technology (雷凌 3534) - Citi Investment Research

Sell: Weaker Sales Signal Pricing Squeeze; Lower Target Price

Reiterate Sell (3H) — We reiterate our negative view on Ralink and lower our target price to NT$78, on 10-11x 09E earnings. Given rising uncertainty and more order cutbacks, we fear the competitive pricing environment will continue to worsen and affect Ralink into 1H09E.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Ralink Technology 3534 雷凌

Richtek (立錡 6286) - Merrill Lynch Research

Takeaways from analyst meeting

Retain Underperform
Despite a 15% share price correction in recent months, the stock still trades at a premium P/E to its local and global peers. We do not see any near-term catalysts for the stock given the uncertain tech demand and macro headwinds. We could turn more positive on the stock when we have better visibility on its new product delivery. Retain Underperform with PO of NT$145 (14x FY09 EPS).

欲閱讀全文者請按 Richtek Technology 6286 立錡

11/27新增

Realtek Semiconductor (瑞昱 2379) - BNP PARIBAS Research

802.11n is the most exciting product for Realtek in 2009
Realtek is scheduled to sample out its 802.11n single chip by year-end. On one side, we notice Realtek uses 65nm process (ahead of Ralink’s 90nm process) on its 802.11n single chip with better cost structure. On
the other hand, we notice Realtek further integrated PA (USD 0.5-0.6 cost saving) into its single chip (MAC/Baseband/RF). We believe the revenue from WLAN ICs will contribute 12% of total revenue, up from
10% in 2008, indicating nearly 20% y-y growth.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Realtek 2379 瑞昱研究報告 – BNP

01/20新增

Realtek Semiconductor (瑞昱 2379) - Merrill Lynch Research

Short-term positive in the price

Near-term order flow slightly better
Due to inventory adjustment by clients and cuts to orders, Realtek’s 4Q sales fell to NT$3.08bn (down 36% QoQ and 17% YoY). While overall PC demand remains weak, Realtek has seen a slight order flow improvement after three consecutive months of decline. Reaktek will hold analyst meeting on 3 February. We expect the company to guide a 10-20% QoQ sales decline in 1Q.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Realtek 2379 瑞昱研究報告 – 美林

02/10新增

Realtek Semiconductor (瑞昱 2379) - DAIWA Research

Still few catalysts, but valuation is attractive in PBR terms

We have been negative about the prospects for Realtek Semiconductor (Realtek) since May 2008 when we initiated coverage of the company. Although we do not expect much change in its fundamentals over the near term, we believe the downside for the stock is limited for now as it is trading near book value.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Realtek 2379 瑞昱研究報告 – DAIWA，另提供 Realtek 2379 瑞昱研究報告 – MACQ 、Realtek 2379 瑞昱研究報告 – Morgan Stanley予各位一併參考。

Novatek (聯詠 3034) - Citi Research

Buy: Leverage Play Ahead of Taiwan TFT Recovery

Re-iterate Buy — Novatek had a prolonged down-cycle due to weak panel and monitor demand. While op. margin will trend lower in 1Q09, it now has a chance to win outsourced Japanese orders, and will remain as a key supplier to the TFT supply chain. With leveraged effect on driver restocking when the Taiwan panel makers see recovery, we re-iterate our Buy (1M) on Novatek.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Novatek 3034 聯詠研究報告 – Citi

正通投資團隊 - 投資台股的專家 » 智原

聯詠 / 智原 / 雷凌 / 瑞昱 / 凌陽 / 群聯 / 致新 / 立錡

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