Nanya Technology Corp. (南科 2408) – Morgan Stanley

Banks Own More Than Investors

Quick Comment – Conclusion: On ~70% liabilities/ assets ratio, 0.8x P/B, Nanya is ~75% owned by creditors and only 25% owned by investors (Formosa group ~50% shareholder). Timing is everything. It’s better for Nanya to transition from Qimonda’s vanishing trench technology to Micron’s stacked technology in a
DRAM downturn. Nanya will lose some fab capacity during transition in 4Q08/1Q09 (just like other DRAM
makers shut down some capacities for recess to reduce bleeding). In a DRAM downturn; less shipments will
lead to a smaller loss although variable cost will first increase initially until crossover in 2H09.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Nanya 2408 南科 研究報告 

Nanya Technology Corp. (南科 2408) – Merrill Lynch

Challenging period ahead 

Poor margins continue; lowering PO and EPS by 16-19%
We do not see any meaningful upside for Nanya Technology. Downbeat 3Q margins (operating loss of NT$6.0bn at -52% OPM vs MLe: -49%) and a cashcost- level DRAM spot price prompt us to revise down 2008 and 2009 EPS by 16% and 19%, respectively. As a result, we lower our price objective by 18% to
NT$4.1. We reiterate our Underperform rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Nanya 2408 南科 研究報告 – 美林 

Inotera Memories, Inc. (華亞科 3474) – Morgan Stanley

The Survivor Pick 

Quick Comment – Conclusion: On superior business model, Inotera is the only DRAM maker in Taiwan with
positive cash margin in downturn. Cash is king. Cost of capital is no longer cheap in Taiwan. But Taiwan still has a laborious talented human capital. Production cost difference is what attracts technology partners to Taiwan. As all DRAM makers are cutting wafers production to reduce cash loss; the best time for Inotera to transition from trench to stacked in a downturn. Capacity loss leads to less losses overall. We expect ~30% Y/Y bits growth for Inotera in 2009. Inotera should benefit from next DRAM upcycle in 2010 with good cost structure on more certain stacked technology roadmap.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3474 華亞科 研究報告

Inotera Memories, Inc. (華亞科 3474) – Merrill Lynch

Micron will likely not warrant upside 

Micron deal presents risks, PO and EPS lowered 18-20%
We believe Micron’s 35.6% Inotera stake acquisition from Qimonda will not warrant stock upside or shareholder value creation. We worry about potential corporate governance risks and start-up costs to adopt new Micron technologies. Inotera’s 3Q loss appears higher than our estimate (net loss: NT$4.0 actual vs NT$3.0bn). The current DRAM spot price is about 10-20% lower than consensus or our forecast. Against this backdrop, we lower our price objective 18% to NT$6.5, and cut 2008-09E EPS by 18-20%. We reiterate our Underperform rating.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Inotera Memories Inc 3474 華亞科 研究報告

AU Optronics (友達 2409) – Citi Investment Research

Buy: Over 35% YoY Capex Cut in 2009E likely to Slow Supply 

BUY into trough — AUO is now trading below the prior three cycles’ trailing trough P/BVs of 0.9x for 2001, 1.1x for 2003, and 1.6x for 2H04. We believe downside is limited and reiterate our Buy (1L) rating. However, we are slashing our target price to NT$40 from NT$66.5 as losses might last and widen for 2-3 quarters to drag the share price to 1x book.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告

AU Optronics (友達 2409) – Macquarie Research

3Q08 results preview 

Price catalyst
12-month price target: NT$40.00 based on a Price to Book methodology.
Catalyst: The demand response to lower LCD TV Street prices will be a key factor for panel price stability and the direction of the TFT-LCD cycle.

Action and recommendation
We maintain an Outperform but lower our target price from NT$61 to NT$40 based on a 2009E P/BV of 1.1x. We believe the stock should trade above its book value on a 12-month view before a return to profitability in 2Q09 and 2H09. Our previous target price of NT$61 (ex-dividend) was based on 1.6x our preceding 2008E BV/sh estimate. Historically, the stock has traded at an average P/BV of 1.6x with a high of 3.5x and low of 0.6x.

We believe the losses and TFT-LCD downcycle in 2H08 should be mostly discounted. Since 1 August, when it became apparent that panel pricing would fall sharply to cash COGS, AUO has outperformed the TWSE index by 11%.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告 – MACQ

Chi Mei Opto (奇美 3009) – Citi Investment Research

Downgrade to Sell: Rising Company Specific Risks 

Downgrade to Sell — Despite CMO already breaking below its prior trailing trough P/BV, we have decided to downgrade the name to Sell (3L) from Buy (1L) and cut our target price to NT$15 from NT$45.5 as we believe this company will bring larger downside risks to investors by carrying a higher gearing ratio, weaker FCF yield, and larger book value contraction.

欲閱讀全文者請按 CMO 3009 奇美 研究報告

10/31 新增 群創 3481、華映 2475、彩晶  6116 等三檔個股的外資研究報告

Innolux Display Corporation (群創 3481) – Merrill Lynch

Poor 3Q results, down to Underperform

Downgrade from BUY to Underperform, NT$22 PO
We downgrade Innolux from Buy to Underperform (currently 6 Buys, 4 Neutral and 1 Sell per Bberg) and reduce our PO to NT$22 on 0.7x 09E PBV (below its historical 0.9-5.5x PBV range). After very poor 3Q results, we expect deep losses in 4Q08/1H09, disproving the theory of its more “defensive” panel+assembly
business model and lead us to use PBV valuations, similar to other panel makers.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Innolux 群創 3481 研究報告 – 美林 ，另外提供 Innolux 群創 3481 研究報告 – 高盛 予各位一併參考

HannStar (彩晶 6116) – Macquarie Research

3Q08 net loss of NT$3.2bn

Action and recommendation
We maintain an Outperform rating, but lower our target price from NT$13.3 to NT$7.0 based on a 2009E P/BV of 0.7x. Our previous target price was based on 1.0x our preceding 2008 book value estimate. We lower our target multiple to reflect low demand visibility. HannStar should weather the current downturn
well because it has one of the strongest balance sheets in the industry, with a net cash position. Management believes the stock is undervalued and is currently undertaking the second share buyback of this year.

欲閱讀全文者請按 HannStar 6116 彩晶 研究報告 – MACQ ，另外提供 HannStar 6116 彩晶 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley 予各位一併參考

CPT (華映 2475) – Macquarie Research

3Q08 net loss of NT$6.1bn

Action and recommendation
We maintain an Outperform rating but lower our target price from NT$10.0 to NT$4.2 based on a 2009E P/BV of 0.6x. Our previous target price was based on 1.0x our preceding 2008 book value estimate. We lower our target multiple to reflect low demand visibility and concerns over CPT’s high debt gearing
and credit risk.

欲閱讀全文者請按 CPT 2475 華映 研究報告 – MACQ ，另外提供 CPT 2475 華映 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley 予各位一併參考

11/15 新增 友達、奇美、DRAM產業、TFT LCD產業 的外資研究報告

Chi Mei Opto (奇美 3009) – BNP Paribas Research

At the epicentre of all fears: REDUCE
3Q in-line record loss; it was just the beginning
CMO’s 3Q08 loss of TWD4.2b was in-line with our estimate. While the 3Q was just the start of CMO’s expected loss making multi-quarters, this loss was record-breaking. Its net debt/equity ratio rose to 74% (2Q: 56%), as CMO drew down additional TWD63b of debt ahead of the deadline for ‘last drawdown’ of the earlier signed syndicated loan.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Chi Mei Optoelectronics 3009 奇美

AU Optronics (友達 2409) – Citi Investment Research

Buy: Consensus Cut Might Accelerate Again Due to Weaker Oct
Mixed shift to PC panels from TV — AUO reported Oct. consolidated sales of NT$27.3bn, down 21% mom and 49% yoy, falling short of our estimates of 10- 15% mom decline in Oct. We believe the larger than expected fall is not driven by shipment (-9% mom in large panel and flattish on small panel) but by mix
shift to PC panel from TV, resulting in blended ASP decline of 15-17% mom for AUO vs. apple-to-apple price decline of 5-7% mom in Oct.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AU Optronics 2409 友達

Taiwan DRAM Sector (台灣DRAM產業) - Deutsche Bank Research

Committed to memory : Taiwan outlines DRAM plan
With repayments looming, MoEA sketches out DRAM rescue plans
The Taiwan government yesterday began to clarify the steps that may be taken to save struggling DRAM makers. In this report, we outline the forthcoming debt repayment schedules for the four companies under our coverage, and speculate on how this situation may evolve. Our DRAM thesis remains unchanged – that
over the coming year, increasing financial pressures will drive consolidation, but the industry’s oversupply is likely to abate somewhat.

Risk/reward profile appears positive
We value our DRAM universe based on historical mid cycle average multiples. Given the likelihood of bankruptcy protection in Taiwan, it appears that the worst case scenarios will be averted. We like Powerchip, Nanya Tech and Inotera. Downside risks to our thesis include further declines in consumer sentiment, an
unexpectedly sharp cut in IT budgets, and a greater-than-expected netbook share.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan DRAM Sector

Taiwan Taiwan TFT LCD Sector Sector (台灣面板產業) - Macquarie Research

Oct large panel sales down 27% MoM
The outlook from here has very limited visibility. The big swing factor is the response in LCD TV demand to lower prices during the November and December holiday season. 4Q is the busiest sell-through period and usually accounts for about 40% of total TV end-demand for the year. Average retail prices for LCD TVs should be cheaper by 20-45% compared with mid-2008 and 30-50% a year ago (Figure 6). The nature of the sell-through will set the tone for demand and pricing elasticity for 2009.

Panel prices should moderate their declines from here (Figure 7-10). Prices should fall by 10–15% QoQ in 4Q08, less than the fall of 12–26% in 3Q08. For November, we expect a decline of 5–10% MoM. Prices will not be finalised until the end of the month, as has been the case for the previous few months. Price declines are moderating as suppliers are producing near their cash COGS (Figure 2) and, consequently, are lowering utilisation rates.

Meanwhile, the industry has reduced supply and capex (Figures 3 and 4) for both 2008 and 2009. We estimate that large panel supply growth by area will be down to a new historical low of 15–20% in 2009, down from 25–30% in 2008. Capex in 2009 will be down by 34%, based on our survey. 

Regionally, we have a Neutral view on the TFT-LCD sector due to weak demand related to macroeconomic issues. We are relatively more positive on Taiwanese TFT-LCD stocks because of lower valuations and better capex discipline. Our top pick is AUO, the bluechip leader in Taiwan.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD Sector

—————01/20新增—————-

Chi Mei Opto (奇美 3009) - Citi Paribas Research

Correction: Sell: Warning – Inventory Losses Might Be Expanded in 4Q08E
3Q in-line record loss; it was just the beginning
Reiterate Sell — We reiterate our Sell (3L) on CMO based on its higher gearing ratio on the balance sheet and large contraction in its book value amid the short-term negative outlook. In addition, we see likely one-off inventory losses following panel prices decline in 4Q08.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3009 CMO 奇美 研究報告 – 花旗

AU Optronics (友達 2409) - Macquarie Investment Research

Bad news is behind
We estimate a 4Q08 net loss of NT$24.6bn (loss per share (LPS) of NT$2.90). This is bigger than our previous estimate of NT$11.2bn. We believe AUO will write down inventory in 4Q08 amounting to about NT$10bn as the company prepares for the new regulation #10 taking effect from 1Q09. We estimate 4Q08 operating/EBITDA margin will fall to -40/-6% from +3/+22% in 3Q08 as the inventory write-downs will likely be taken in COGS. We believe these losses should already be discounted with forward-looking guidance and ASPs as key catalysts. While the losses from the inventory write-downs are significant, they will set a clean slate for 2009 and allow for a lower cost base.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告 – MACQ

Taiwan Taiwan TFT LCD Sector Sector (台灣面板產業) - Morgan Stanley Research

Consolidation to Defy Gravity

Investment conclusion: We prefer AUO over CMO this cycle. Since inception, AUO and CMO have made
comparable investments; but AUO generated ~2x of operating cashflow (~15% larger in paid in capital).
Scale matters; consolidation is inevitable. Hypothetical analysis: as a new industry leader, potential AUO/CMO merger could (1) differentiate in capital market to command valuation premium for better capital market access, (2) reduce costs by avoiding investment duplication, (3) result in changes to the business model. Samsung has Corning glass JV to share profits; LG Display has glass JV with NEG. A new Taiwan TFT
leader could request glass joint venture to ensure motherglass supply and capture foodchain profits and
avoid being the bargaining chips of Sony/Samsung’s internal buffered capacities.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD 研究報告 – Morgan Stanley

—————02/25新增—————-

CPT (華映 2475) – Morgan Stanley Research

Analyst Meeting Takeaways

CPT is seeing some rush orders in monitor and TV panels benefiting from inventory re-stocking and China rural TV subsidies. For 1Q09, CPT guides for flat Q/Q shipments for large size panels and small size panels at 40-50% fab utilization. CPT sees monitor panel prices increasing M/M again in February (this reflects panel makers’ reluctance to produce below cash cost at trough utilization). CPT strives to minimize cash
outflow in 2009 at minimal capex. CPT will increase its 18.5”, 20”W and 21.6” monitor shipment mix in 1Q09 at the expense of notebooks on a notebook inventory correction (notebook panel prices will stay flat until inventory clears).

欲閱讀全文者請按 CPT 2475 華映 研究報告 – MS

Taiwan Taiwan TFT LCD Sector Sector (台灣面板產業) - Macquarie Research

Panel prices in February

Regionally, we have a neutral view on the TFT-LCD sector. Price rises are led by supply-side factors and may not hold beyond 1Q09 since end-demand is weak. We recommend taking profit into this rally. We would turn positive if the price rebound is sustainable and demand is clearly recovering. 

We are more positive on Taiwanese panel makers, which have lower P/BV valuations. Our top picks remain AUO and InnoLux. In addition, tighter relationships with Chinese TV brands and a boost in demand from the rural subsidy should help AUO and CMO improve the strength of their customer base. This helps to narrow the advantages that Korean and Japanese panel makers have from supplying internally to their own affiliated brands.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan TFT LCD 研究報告 – MACQ

Taiwan DRAM Sector (台灣DRAM產業) - Morgan Stanley Research

Memory Module Industry
Over the cycle, well-managed memory module makers, such as Transcend, have outperformed pure memory fab operators, such as Powerchip and Nanya. Since 1999, Transcend has achieved average ROIC/ROE of 20%/23% versus negative figures for the Taiwan DRAM industry. Scale matters in the memory module industry. Amid DRAM/NAND shortages, larger module makers have better access to limited chip supply.
Amid oversupply, larger module companies have better pricing power and can react quicker to clear inventory.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Taiwan DRAM 研究報告 – MS

AU Optronics (友達 2409) – Merrill Lynch Research

Bottoming out, upgrade to BUY 

The worst is over, upgrade to BUY – NT$30.2 PO (1x PBV)
We are upgrading AUO from Neutral to BUY (NT$30.2 PO, 1.0x 09E PBV) as we think the worst is behind the company. No V-shaped recovery, 09E LCD oversupply (BAS-ML 7%), big 09E losses (BAS-ML NT$38.6bn versus NT$27.6bn previously) and negative ROE are widely expected at this point, but at 0.8x 09E PBV, long-term risk/reward is turning favorable in our view as a) sharp supply-side cuts are under way, b) 1Q loss for AUO should not be worse than 4Q, and c) 2Q blended ASP likely to stabilize and losses to narrow in 2H09 as industry awaits demand catalyst return.

欲閱讀全文者請按 AUO 2409 友達 研究報告 – 美林

相關文章

• Taiwan TFT LCD / AU Optronics 2409 友達 / CMO 3009 奇美
• Taiwan strategy(Financial status – time for an EKG)
• 面板製造公司( TFT LCD )是一個好的投資標的？！
• DRAM 公司是不是一個好的投資標的？！
• 由Buy Side與Sell Side建立閱讀外資研究報告的正確態度
• 原油 / 總體經濟 / 半導體 / 主機板 / 筆記型電腦 / 半導體 / 塑化
• 光寶 / 閎輝 / 友訊 / 合勤 / 健鼎 / 聯電 / 華邦電 / 東元

茂德（5387）董事長陳民良表示，DRAM市況仍處於調整階段，預估資本支出控制效益將開始發酵，看好下半年DRAM市況。因應後續技術製程推進，以及太陽能電池事業開拓，茂德、茂矽下半年都將伺機進行籌資。

此外，茂德今年董監改選，聯電持有茂德股權再度引起關注。陳民良說，聯電約持有茂德股權七％，雙方互動良好，惟目前聯電持股態度仍以純投資為主，沒有取得董事席次的想法，至於雙方業務合作也還沒有具體、明顯的方案。

據了解，茂德、茂矽下半年籌資金額各約百億元；茂矽因負債比較低，本業獲利穩健，因應籌建新廠及原料採買需求，籌資方案將以銀行聯貸，搭配現增或發行GDR等方式執行。

—————————2008年4月 感想—————————–

DRAM產業從07H2～08H1整整一年的時間，都處在景氣衰退的階段，按理廠商應該在景氣衰退時建廠，才能在景氣翻揚時迎接獲利契機，不是嗎？可是台灣的DRAM廠商卻非如此，反而等著景氣翻揚時籌資…Why？公司手上現金不足！

DRAM是一個資本密集的產業，必須不斷投入資本，建廠買設備，製程才能一直精進，成本也才能壓低，否則產品價格長期趨勢一直往下滑，廠商將因價格競爭壓力導致退出！而DRAM廠最大的問題就在此處，每年產生的營運活動現金流量低於規劃中的資本支出，換句話說…06年大賺273億元，拿來買機器設備都不夠(07年購置固定資產634億元)！

很簡單的邏輯…對投資人而言，投資一家公司，就是希望公司賺錢，而且賺的是白花花的現金，讓股東可以分享公司經營的成果(配息)，如果你跟朋友合夥開了一家小吃店，每年朋友都告訴你有獲利，卻又年年伸手找你要錢擴展店面，過了五六年後你發現，你投資的金額一直在增加，但是拿回來的現金卻寥寥可數，這種投資你肯幹嗎？

全世界的DRAM廠幾乎都有這種狀況，經常伸手找股東要錢(增資、發可轉債、ADR、GDR等)，而每年繳出來的成績單，通常是一年大好、一年大壞、一年損益二平，長線的投資人嚴重套牢不說，短線的又經常買在高檔，結果變成套牢的長線投資人，真想買DRAM的朋友，必須要有心理準備，股價就算真的漲上來，上方有一大堆套牢籌碼在等待解套。

類似DRAM產業的還有航空業，經常要花錢換新機，賺到的錢幾乎都要拿去購買新飛機，否則競爭力就會下滑，美國的航空公司經常傳出破產消息，其來有自！投資大師巴菲特就曾經被航空股(美國航空)嚇過，雖然那筆投資是獲利的，可是獲利了結後數年，該公司就宣告破產了，精明的巴菲特想懂了這個產業的特性，所以他買的不是航空公司，而是飛機製造廠，因為航空公司會把現金源源不絕的丟給飛機製造廠，最終獲利的是製造者而非服務者！

今天力晶收盤價仍在11元以上，茂德則為8元，南科與華亞科的股價分別是18.8與27.8元。華航與長榮航則為19.6元及18.4元，縱使總統大選前市場對航空股非常樂觀，這個產業….中長期依舊呈現慣性的現金流出，實在不是一個理想的投資標的，而DRAM這個產業亦然。

—————————–2008年8月 資料彙整————————–

今天花了點時間，將DRAM股中二大代表性廠商 – 力晶與南科 的現金流量資料，彙整了一下，提供各位參考！

沒學過會計學的朋友，可以用『顧名思義』的方式看待營運活動之現金流量，至於投資活動之現金流量，主要指的是公司新增(或出售)廠房、土地、機器設備等固定資產，加上長期投資這部分的現金流入與流出。最後，融資活動之現金流量指的是….公司透過舉債、向股東要錢來增資…等方式，所產生的現金流入與流出。

以下是最近八年的力晶現金流量彙：                                                                                                單位：千元

力晶是國內DRAM產能最大的龍頭廠商，我們從上表可以看出：

1. 最近八年中只有2004年營運活動之現金流量 ＞ 投資活動之現金流量，換言之，有七年公司營運所得到的現金流入，並不足以支應產能及製程提升所需要的投資活動上的現金流出！亦即自由現金流量為負值。

2.過去八年中，力晶有七年都需要仰賴融資活動，來彌補現金流入之不足！而這八年來，力晶透過舉債或向股東伸手要錢的金額，總計是….1143億元左右！

各位想像有一家剛開始準備營運的小工廠，老闆是你的朋友，他今天來找你，希望你能參與投資，成為這家小工廠的原始股東，而你具有預見未來的神通，能看到未來八年這家公司的現金流量彙整表(如上)，你知道未來八年這家工廠，將不斷要你出錢增資，而且不斷向銀行舉債，雖然公司規模越來越大，老闆與主要員工的財富越來越多，但是你付出的投資金額，卻遠低於你拿回的現金股利，試問….你願意投資嗎？

我們再來看經營之神王永慶有投資的這一家….南科，以下是最近八年的南科現金流量彙整：

我們從上表可以看出：

1.這八年來只有2005與2006這二年，營運活動之現金流量 ＞ 投資活動之現金流量，而累計八年以來，營運活動之現金流量 － 投資活動之現金流量 的總和(自由現金流量)是….－605億元。

2.過去八年中，南科每年都透過舉債、找股東增資…等融資活動，來增加現金流入，總計是….532億元左右！

如果你光看這八年來南科與力晶的EPS表現，或許會將它列入景氣循環股，因為它們的EPS隨著景氣變化而出現大賺或大賠，但是你如果看的是現金流量，就會發現…..無論是大賺或大賠，它們都必須不斷的投入資金，否則在這個產業中將被淘汰！這也是為何DRAM個股的股價，長期來看都是往下的趨勢呈現，畢竟現金….才是實質的營運績效，而不是單純看報表上的EPS數據即可。

——————–2008年9月 感想————————

相較於五個月前力晶、南科、茂德、華亞科的股價，今天它們的股價已經剩不到五成，至於長榮航與華航，也是如此表現。如果找不到新資金挹注，情況只會持續惡化下去。就算DRAM與航空業的景氣好轉，現金持續流出仍是不爭的事實，而這也改變不了價格的長期趨勢，縱使股價跌幅已深，只要整個結構性問題(無論盈虧，都必須仰賴年年龐大的資本支出以維持競爭力，而且台廠皆缺乏技術優勢)沒有改善，任何時間與價位點都是賣出的好時機。

——————–2008年11月 新聞與感想————————

DRAM救不救? 劉揆態度保留

對DRAM產業該不該救？政府應否介入？行政院長劉兆玄昨天首度表示，目前產業界與政府對此尚未有共識，未來會繼續洽談，政府處理的方式，包括國發基金注資或促成產業合併等，都在考慮中。據了解，政院明日（週五）即會針對DRAM產業經營困境問題，及政府如何介入協助，聽取經濟部報告，研商對策。

劉揆昨天在專訪中不願針對DRAM單一企業該不該救，明確表達政府立場，僅表示DRAM產業本身並沒有很好的規劃、計畫及共識，因此政府政策立場還要稍等一下。

經濟部高層樂觀預期DRAM產業明年中可望復甦，有關官員表示，DRAM經營困境已很難支撐至明年中，挽救DRAM產業迫在眉睫，在業者立場不一下，除展延融資紓困外，以國發基金對DRAM產業增資可行性較高。官員說，有業者希望政府的手不要伸入自由市場，該倒讓它倒，其他具競爭力業者才能存活，救不救形成政府難題。

據了解，經濟部週五擬向政院提出挽救DRAM產業對策有三部曲，包括一、到期資金展延紓困；二、由國發基金策略性增資DRAM產業，但持股不逾50％；三、政府引導產業合併。

但官員坦承，政府的手很難介入自由市場，因業者立場不一，有的主張政府不要救，該倒讓它倒，如此具競爭力業者就可順勢存活。政府如何救DRAM產業，必須由決策高層運用智慧解決。

官員指出，全球DRAM產業供過於求，若只有台灣減產沒有用，因為這是一場國際戰局，台灣退出，其他日、韓、美等國業者就會搶佔台灣市占率，但要等到供需平衡，勢必有人要退出戰局。

經濟部高層曾樂觀預測明年中DRAM景氣好轉，但官員說，DRAM產業困境已相當緊急，可能撐不過半年，業者一直在透支，因此要挽救業者必須及早介入。

官員說，每家DRAM業者都是上市公司的個體，且背後有不同的技術母廠支援，要談合併絕不容易，否則扁政府時期就談成了，在業者合併意願不高下，恐怕只有考慮國發基金增資入股，支撐產業較可行，即使要增資也必須經過評審機制。

正通投資團隊的看法：預估到明年第一季時，將開始有DRAM廠商出現財務危機，這一點從今年第三季各DRAM廠財報中，現金與約當現金的金額可以估計出來。以目前的狀況而言，就算政府挹注資金而且促成國內廠商間的合併，台灣廠商競爭力仍將沒有改變，畢竟先進製程的技術仍舊掌握在外國廠商手中，充其量台灣廠商只能算是代工的角色，況且合併後產能並未減少，供需面依舊要仰賴需求來改變目前不振的現況。

最好的辦法是政府擔任溝通的橋樑，促使國外廠商併購台灣廠商，甚至政府可提供融通資金給國外有益併購的廠商。否則DRAM廠商一旦有一家倒閉，勢必影響相關的金融機構。

PS：在11/18工商時報專訪施振榮的內容中，施振榮建議政府，「有捨才有得」，應該輔導DRAM廠商進行轉型。施振榮說，「現在不轉型，就沒有三年以後成功的產業」。

施振榮舉1997年金融風暴時，韓國政府在國際貨幣基金（IMF）建議下，強迫三星放棄汽車產業，LG放棄半導體一樣，沒有競爭力的產業不應該持續投入，才讓之後三星、LG再造成功。

除了DRAM外，面板產業同樣面對韓國廠商競爭，下半年也開始營運面臨挑戰，施振榮觀察，面板產業在市場、技術上情況是比DRAM好一些，不過產業也是供過於求，也會面對類似問題。

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