研究報告的更新方式為….增列於本文最下方。

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (景碩 3189) – Citi Investment Research

Continue to buy into trough — Despite market fears of a broader semi demand downturn, we expect Kinsus to be one of names to survive in this downturn with strong 35% net cash to equity and 55% net cash to market capital ratio. We reiterate our 1M rating, but cut our TP to NT$52, 1.1-1.2x 2008-10E book.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3189 景碩 研究報告

TXC Corp (晶技 3042) – Citi Investment Research

Continue to buy into trough — Despite market fears of a broader semi demand downturn, we expect Kinsus to be one of names to survive in this downturn with strong 35% net cash to equity and 55% net cash to market capital ratio. We reiterate our 1M rating, but cut our TP to NT$52, 1.1-1.2x 2008-10E book.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3042 晶技 研究報告

Chipbond Techn (頎邦 6147) – Macquarie Research

We like the company for its unparalleled cost structure, especially in gold bumping technology. We do see, however, two issues for the company that may not be resolved in the near term. These are: 1) declining wafer bumping demand, and 2) continuing price pressure from TFT LCD panel makers given the current oversupply situation and global macro headwinds. We revise down our target price to NT$8.5 from NT$15.9, as we lower our P/BV multiple to 0.5x from 1x. We expect its ROE to see three straight years of decline to 5.8% in 2009E from 19% in 2007.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Chipbond 6147 頎邦 研究報告

ITEQ (聯茂 6213) – Goldman Sachs

The copper price has fallen by 45% since September and our commodities research team has also cut its copper price forecasts. As copper foil represents about 50%-70% of CCL material cost, we believe ITEQ’s growth prospects have been substantially weakened as lower CCL pricing will hurt sales growth momentum and weaken operating leverage. We note that current CCL prices are still about 20% higher than CY2005 levels, when the copper price ranged from US$3,000-4,000/tonne. Though our commodities research team expects the copper price to rebound meaningfully in 2H09, we believe medium-term poor CCL pricing and a weak demand outlook from ITEQ’s PCB customers will weigh on ITEQ’s shipments and utilization.
We recognize ITEQ’s competitive position in the expected trend of greener CCL material adoption, but we see s sluggish fundamental outlooks for ITEQ in the next 2-3 quarters. We believe the time to re-visit the stock is when PCB demand picks up and the copper price strengthens. We are cutting our 2008E/09E/10E sales/earnings forecasts by 5%-33% and lower our 12-month target price to NT$17 (from NT$32), based on 7X next- 12-month P/E (implying 1.0X trailing P/B). Given the potential volatility of small cap stocks it is possible ITEQ shares may undershoot our TP in the short run. Key risks to our price target include even weaker CCL pricing and PCB demand.

欲閱讀全文者請按 6213 聯茂 研究報告

Greatek Electronics (超豐 2441) – Macquarie Research

More liquidity concerns

GTK is a quality niche package player with a net cash position. However, given the current financial turmoil, we believe investors prefer to stick with large-cap, high liquidity, and well cover stocks. Unfortunately, GTK does not have any one of the above factors, which often result in valuation de-ratings. Moreover, we do
not expect GTK can outgrow peers in this cyclical downturn as we do not see an opportunity in market share gains or a breakthrough in the low-end consumer package. We, hence, downgrade GTK to Neutral from Outperform. On 15.6% ROE, 9% dividend yield, and a 50% net cash position, we expect GTK will not trade at its previous trough of 0.4x forward P/BV in 2001.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Greatek 2441 超豐 研究報告

KYEC (京元電 2449) – Macquarie Research

Vulnerable testing business

We cut our TP to NT$7 from NT$23.8, due mainly to reflect our earnings revisions and P/BV multiple adjustment amid a weak economic outlook that may further dampen earnings growth. As a high operating leveraged play (depreciation as 57% of COGS), KYEC is likely to incur losses in 1Q09. Although its valuations already hit the historical low, we think it is still too premature to turn positive. Downgrade to Underperform from Outperform.

欲閱讀全文者請按 KYEC 2449 京元電 研究報告

Phoenix Precision (全懋 2446) – Merrill Lynch

Business starting to fall, too early to call bottom

PPT reported an in-line 3Q08 but visibility is limited. Although 4Q08 revenue may not drop as sharply as we forecast (down 20%) we think 1Q09 could see another double-digit decline. We lower 2008/09E EPS by 23%/21% to NT$0.62/NT$0.59. We maintain our Underperform rating due to the high P/E of 14x 2009E EPS and the continued earnings risk from high PC/graphics exposure and ASP/mix risks.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Phoenix Precision 2446 全懋 研究報告

Shin Zu Shing Co. Ltd. (新日興 3376) – Merrill Lynch

Upbeat 3Q results (25% higher than MLe)
SZS reported upbeat 3Q net profit of NT$461mn (EPS NT$3.72; up 119% QoQ and up 12% YoY), driven by stronger revenue growth (up 36% QoQ; vs MLe: up 28%) and ~NT$100mn forex gains. However, we think the strong top-line momentum may peak-out in October, and expect flattish top-line growth for 4Q08
(vs management’s projection of a 5-10% QoQ increase).

Premium valuation, maintaining Buy
We are reviewing SZS’s 08/09 model assumptions in light of its upbeat 3Q results, but our conservative view on the 2009 outlook. SZS’s share price has outperformed TAIEX by about 10% YTD. The stock is now trading at a premium valuation (11x 08-09 P/E) to NB food-chain peers (averaging 9x P/E), and we maintain our Buy opinion.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3376 新日興 研究報告

———————01/20新增————————-

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (景碩 3189) – Citi Investment Research

Changes and Implications
We have updated our FY2011 estimates to reflect changes in our estimates towards its FC-CSP margins. We do not view these changes as material, and there is no change to our investment thesis, rating or price target. For methodology and risks associated with our price target, please see our previously published research.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3189 景碩 研究報告 – 高盛

Phoenix Precision (全懋 2446) – Macquarie Investment Research

Another leg down

Downward revisions from major customers. Following Intel’s (INTC, NR) profit warning earlier, nVidia (NVDA, NR) slashed its end-Jan-09 quarterly revenue by almost 50%. The worse-than-expected sales could result in higher inventory and further order cuts for the IC substrates. We also expect these customers to exert increasing pricing pressure on IC substrate suppliers given the abundant under-utilised capacities. PPT is likely to suffer, given 50% exposure to PC applications.

欲閱讀全文者請按 PTT 2446 全懋 研究報告 – MACQ

———————02/10新增————————-

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (景碩 3189) - Goldman Sachs Research

Above expectations: see a greater than expected dip in 1Q2009
Though Kinsus’ business has been slow since 4Q08, its higher-margin FCCSP and BT-FC lines showed above-average performance (mainly due to less-affected smartphone demand and increasing need for the generalpurpose FPGA chips when visibility remains low), thus driving the 4Q08 earnings upside against our estimate (NT$395 mn, vs. our estimate of NT$279 mn). Meanwhlie, Kinsus announced a cash dividend of NT$2 per share, implying a 6.4% dividend yield. Kinsus also announced a share buyback plan to repurchase 5 mn shares (or 1.1% of its total outstanding shares) from the open market by 3/22.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3189 景碩 研究報告 – 高盛

———————02/25新增————————-

Kinsus Interconnect Technology (景碩 3189) – Merrill Lynch Investment Research

Recovery to begin with new products – reiterate Buy

Raising 2009 EPS – share price catalysts could come early
We raise our 2009 EPS and reiterate our Buy rating (recently upgraded from Underperform). 4Q08 results were in line with BAS-ML, while utilization appears to be stabilizing. Our analysis suggests the stock is intrinsically undervalued; Catalysts in the weak macro include new product cycles, share gains, customer
inventory reduction, and a broad-based order snapback from 3Q09.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Kinsus 3187 景碩 研究報告 – 美林

Phoenix Precision (全懋 2446) – Merrill Lynch Research

Limited options

Losses to persist into 2010E
Phoenix Precision (PPT) reported large 4Q08 losses in the absence of a dedicated cost-reduction plan. Revenue fell 19.7% QoQ in 4Q08 while net income plunged 207% QoQ to -NT$309mn, below our NT$60mn (EPS NT$0.08) forecast and consensus of NT$173mn (EPS NT$0.24). The OP margin slid 20.6% from 9.2% to -11.4% (vs our estimate of 4.1%). Although the company expects to roll out a cost-reduction plan, no significant initiative has yet been taken.

欲閱讀全文者請按 Phoenix Precision 2446 全懋 研究報告 – 美林，另提供 Phoenix Precision 2446 全懋 研究報告 – 高盛 予各位一併參考

Shin Zu Shing Co. Ltd. (新日興 3376) – Merrill Lynch Research

No signs to turn positive; retain Neutral

EPS and PO trimmed; maintain Neutral rating
We cut earning estimates of Shin Zu Shing (SZS) by 7% and 19% for 2008/09E, to reflect lower revenue assumptions and higher margin pressure concerns. We expect the market to react neutrally to the firm’s 4Q08 results (in line with market’s reduced expectation) and conservative 1Q09 guidance. We cut our PO to NT$96 from NT$119, using trough-cycle valuation method (11x P/E). Retain Neutral.

欲閱讀全文者請按 3376 新日興 研究報告 – 美林

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