以下是高盛證券(Goldman Sachs)於10/7對宏達電(2498)所出具的研究報告摘要：

What’s changed
HTC Corp. reported Sep. sales and 3Q08 preliminary net earnings after Monday’s market close. Despite some shipment postponements caused by typhoon, Sep. and 3Q sales came in at NT$13.7bn (+8% mom, +30% yoy) and NT$37.9bn (+9.4% qoq, +30% yoy), respectively, in line with mgmt guidance. Net earnings came in 4-5% less than street/GS estimates, likely from lower than expected Forex gains due to the weakening Euro; the company will provide a detailed 3Q breakdown, as well as 4Q guidance at its
Oct. 30th analysts meeting. In addition, the company continues to expect 2008 sales to reach the high end of its guidance range (+20% to 30%).

Implications
We attribute recent share price weakness mainly to redemption pressure rather than due to fundamental reasons. We also believe it is misleading to tie recent woes at Apple and RIM directly to HTC’s outlook, as HTC not only addresses more diversified end segments but also has a timelier/ broader product portfolio. Inevitably, near term de-rating has occurred amid the sharp index correction; we believe re-rating will soon begin as we head in to a potentially strong 4Q (GSE +30% qoq revenue growth). Additionally, we believe a long term re-rating process remains as HTC continues to innovate and scale up. We conservatively fine tune our 08E-10E earnings estimates by -4%/ +3%/ +9% to factor in margin trends from Android & ODM percentage; Despite potentially strong growth ahead from dual mobile platforms Windows Mobile and Google Android, we revise our 2009E revenue estimate up by only 5% to reflect macro concerns. We slightly lower our 12-m PEbased TP to NT620 (12X 2009E) from NT660 (16X 2008E). Maintain Buy.

Valuation
HTC currently trades at 10.5X/ 8X 08E/ 09E GAAP EPS, approximately a 40% discount to the global peer median.

Key risks
Intensified competition from global peers.

INVESTMENT LIST MEMBERSHIP
Asia Pacific Buy List

此份報告指出，雖然宏達電Q3的營收略低於市場預期，但宏達電高層對於該公司08年的營收成長預估(+20%~30%)仍有信心達成，換言之，Q4不會受到全球金融風暴的影響，出現營收大幅度下滑的可能。高盛仍然維持宏達電的買進評等，但稍微調降目標價至TWD $620元，除了對宏達電Q4的營收表現仍具信心外，對於09年宏達電的營收與獲利成長趨勢，高盛認為宏達電仍具備profit momentum.

近期宏達電的股價呈現相對弱勢，主要原因是RIM與Apple對於智慧型手機在Q4銷售狀況的保守看法，因為智慧型手機多數為商務人士(尤其是金融從業人員)所購買，而金融風暴使得主要客群的失業人數暴增，故而市場預期智慧型手機的銷售狀況受此影響的時間將拉長。對於股價漲跌的二個主要因素(市場預期與本益比調整)而言，此次宏達電就是受到市場預期這個因素所影響，因為預期宏達電的獲利成長將出現停滯，因而產生市場不認同其本益比。

從上圖我們可以明顯看到對於股價漲跌的二個主要因素(市場預期與本益比調整)，在宏達電股價上的效果。當指數從9000點之上，下跌至6000點附近後，宏達電短期股價雖有往下，但是隨後又回到600元附近的水準，相對於指數的跌幅，宏達電股價修正的幅度相對少了很多。

因為此次的金融風暴從金融業本身擴散到消費端，故而市場預期宏達電的銷售將受到影響，近期股價的下跌反映的是』預期獲利』的修正，換言之，原先預期Q3與Q4會維持其一貫的營收成長趨勢，但現而今的預期沒有如此樂觀，所以預估獲利被市場修正，進而導致股價的下跌，這部分屬於市場預期產生的股價調整。

因為市場對於成長股所給予的本益比(PER ; P/E)相對較高，原先市場預估宏達電08年的EPS會較07年成長15%~25%，但是現如今修正為08年的EPS與07年相當，那麼宏達電短期就不是成長股了，自然過去享受的較高本益比的待遇，要往下做調整。這部分內容可以參考Peter Lynch對於PEG的概念( 個股合理價值(內涵價值)的衡量方法(一) )。

由於市場預期使得股價出現第一波調整，隨後宏達電從成長股之列被移動出來，所以第二波的調整為本益比的調整，亦即成長股可享受的15X P/E待遇被降低到10X 的P/E待遇，股價自然跌到400元附近可以暫時止跌(目前市場預估08年EPS為TWD $40元左右)。

假設宏達電08年的EPS確實為40元，以10X 的P/E來評價，400元的宏達電尚屬合理(但是沒有超值，亦即安全邊際考量在內的話，價值投資者所設定的買進價位應該更低較為適當)，但是投資人尚須留意的是智慧型手機屬於高科技產業，其獲利波動較一般產業高，雖然宏達電最近8年的稅後獲利呈現高度成長趨勢，但是此一趨勢能否持續？品牌與代工的雙重營運模式是否會有衝突？技術領先的優勢是否會持續？諸多問題都是投資人宜持續留意的觀察方向。

以下是高盛證券(Goldman Sachs)此份報告中，對於宏達電中期展望的說明內容，一併提供參考。

Despite what we perceive as a temporary share price de-rating driven by redemption pressure, high absolute stock price and YTD share price out-performance during a time of capital market volatility, we maintain our expectation of a longer term re-rating along a trend of converging P/E multiples among global tier 1 (exhibit 2), even given Apple and RIM’s recent share price weakness because:

(1) As it trades on the Taiwan exchange, we believe HTC has traded at an emerging market discount to peers like Apple and RIMM that trade in more mature markets. Given its inherent trading discount, we do not expect the same degree of impact to HTC from the multiple compression of Apple or RIMM

(2) Understanding that temporary de-rating may be inevitable given current sentiment and market environment; we believe expected strong 4Q momentum (GSE 30% qoq revenue growth) may likely result in a re-rating of HTC as soon as investors gain reassurance that HTC’s growth is not being impacted by the current weak macro conditions.

(3) Longer term, we are confident of seeing growth momentum from 2009 onward for HTC based on the two mobile platforms, Window Mobile and Google Android; in particular, we were encouraged to see the initial successful rollout of G1, which has given us a level of comfort that HTC now has dual growth engines to leverage for maximizing its return on the fast growing smart phone industry.

2498 宏達電 研究報告 – 高盛 原文內容下載請按此

10/17 新增研究報告如下：

2498 宏達電 研究報告 – 美林 原文內容下載請按此

2498 宏達電 研究報告 – BNP 原文內容下載請按此

10/31 新增研究報告如下：

HTC Corporation (宏達電 2498) – Citi Group Research

Maintain Buy Despite 4Q Headwinds

Share price under near-term pressure — HTC stock’s trailing P/E fell to 8x in 1Q07 after a very poor sell-through momentum in 4Q06. If this were to happen again, HTC’s share price could pull back to close to NT$300. Given HTC’s current product cycle is rather successful (good Diamond sell-through and strong demand for Android phone), we do not expect HTC’s P/E to fall to previous trough. However, HTC outperformed the index by more than 10% in the past three weeks. With muted 4Q outlook, we believe the share price could potentially give back its outperformance. We would see the shares as even more attractive as a result of any price dips following the investor conference given we do not expect the company to provide encouraging guidance.

欲閱讀全文者請按 HTC 2498 宏達電 研究報告 – 花旗

11/27 新增研究報告如下：

HTC Corporation (宏達電 2498) – JPMorgan Research

Cutting global smartphone forecast, HTC relatively robust for next 2 quarters on strong G1 backlog

Cut PT, stay OW on good earnings visibility/ product launch: We cut our PT from NT$560 (Dec-09) to NT$400 (Jun-09) to reflect our 6%/10%/14% EPS cut for FY08E-10E, and we lower our FY09E P/E multiple from 15x to 12x (8-20x historical range). Still, we expect HTC to outperform the index in the next two quarters due to 1) better earning visibility due to G1 backlog; 2) event-driven angle from new Google phones coming in 1H09 for multiple operators. Key risk is operator subsidy trend.

欲閱讀全文者請按 HTC 2498 宏達電 研究報告 – JPMorgan

01/20新增

HTC Corporation (宏達電 2498) – Macquarie Research

A closer look at new products

In a recent meeting, HTC said it will have a product introduction event in February (likely to take place during the 3GSM congress, 16–19 February), and this has been raising investor eyebrows on how new products will look.

The Boy Genius Report website has posted pictures of possible new HTC phones, although it does not contain software/hardware spec details. Checking with industry sources, we believe these are very likely to be ongoing projects from HTC. We offer more details and analysis.

欲閱讀全文者請按 HTC 2498 宏達電 研究報告 – MACQ

02/20新增

HTC Corporation (宏達電 2498) - Citi Research

1Q Revenue Guidance In Line; Big Model Launch to Come in MWC

1Q sales guidance in line — HTC reported full 4Q results with GM and OPM both in line with expectations and guidance (it already posted net profit on Jan 6). HTC maintained its guidance of slight Y/Y revenue growth and indicated 1Q revenue to be NT$33bn, roughly in line with our expectation of NT$33.4bn or
30% Q/Q decline. Yesterday, HTC’s share price went limit down because of fear that HTC’s 1Q revenue will be 5-10% below guidance, implying a 35-40% Q/Q revenue decline. Given the weak share price yesterday, we believe HTC’s in-line revenue guidance today should be seen as a positive.

欲閱讀全文者請按 HTC 2498 宏達電 研究報告 – 花旗 ，另一併提供 HTC 2498 宏達電 研究報告 – 美林 予各位參考！

HTC公佈了HTC Touch Diamond與Touch Pro兩款旗艦手機的新一代產品： HTC Touch Diamond 2 與 Touch Pro 2 (第二代Diamond與第二代Touch Pro)。

其中Diamond 2的螢幕從之前的2.8英吋升級到3.2英吋，解析度由VGA (480×640) 提升到WVGA (480×800)。另外增加SD卡插槽和512MB ROM、500萬畫素自動對焦照相鏡頭，也增加了50%的電池續航時間。

                圖一：      Diamond 2 / 鑽石機二代

   圖二： HTC Touch Pro 2 / Touch Pro 二代

Touch Pro 2在設計上有了很大的改變，它借助了TyTN II的邊側式滑蓋和外翻螢幕的外觀設計，螢幕增大到3.6英寸，解析度為480×800，原先的方向鍵被多個小按鍵所取代，使得可視空間更大，它還配備320萬畫素自動對焦照相鏡頭與micro SDHC卡插槽，電池續航時間也有了提升，此外它還獨有Straight Talk特性，在電話會議中整合了email功能。

另外HTC也展示了與Vodafone合作的HTC Magic (Android 作業平台)，初期將在英、法、西班牙等國推出白色機種(圖三)，德國與義大利則推出黑色機種，HTC Magic將支援Google所提供的諸多應用服務，例如Google map 與YouTube。

                                         圖三： HTC Magic

06/23新增

HTC Corporation (宏達電 2498) - Goldman Sachs Research

Samsung’s new product launch: near/long-term implication for HTC

What’s changed
At the pre-CommunicAsia2009 event on June 15, Samsung rolled out several Windows Mobile smartphones (the OMNIA family), and rolled out the Samsung “Jet”—the next generation feature phone—during its
“Samsung Unpacked” global launch event. Samsung Jet appears to be running on a feature phone operating system (O/S), but carries impressive hardware specs (such as the 800Mhz CPU), an upgraded user interface
(UI), strong multimedia capability, and unique mobile internet experiences. Official dates for the availability of these devices have not been released.

欲閱讀全文者請按 htc_2498_gs ，另一併提供 htc_2498_ms、htc_2498_cs、2498宏達電研究報告-citi予各位參考！

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